Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

You’ll Have to Pry My Steering Wheel from My Cold, Dead Fingers

—

by

James A. Bacon
in , ,

The latest from the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy….

I don’t have any philosophical objections to electric vehicles. If they offer better performance for the price than combustion-powered cars, I wouldn’t hesitate to buy one. I do have public-policy reservations about government subsidies for EVs and EV infrastructure, and I do have concerns about the impact of a 100% electric fleet on the reliability of the electric grid. But none of that would dissuade me from buying an EV.

Here’s what would dissuade me: government mandates taking away my freedom of choice.

As the TJI clip highlights, current Virginia law essentially requires California EV mandates to apply to Virginia. That law anticipates banning the sale of new combustion vehicles within ten years. If you want to buy a new car, it’ll have to be an electric vehicle.

My reaction: Go Californicate yourself.

I’ll drive my Rogue Sport as long as it lasts, as long as spare parts can be scavenged from junk yards, and as long as there are still gas stations to sell me fuel.

— JAB

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60 responses to “You’ll Have to Pry My Steering Wheel from My Cold, Dead Fingers”

  1. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    The grid issue is not trivial. The nationwide creation of large numbers of public charging stations that hit the goal of 90% charge in 10 minutes requires an order of magnitude change in electrical grid capacity. It requires a lot of current.

    When combined with the push for intermittent green generation and storage there are profound R&D and build out problems to solve.

    Those are virtuous goals, but it is hard to see how we get there by 2035. It is easy to overlook the remarkable and routine nationwide delivery network of energy dense fossil fuels.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      “The nationwide creation of large numbers of public charging stations that hit the goal of 90% charge in 10 minutes requires an order of magnitude change in electrical grid capacity. It requires a lot of current.”

      90% charge in 10 minutes?

      When is that supposed to be possible (assuming the grid is in place)?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        You’re gonna get the 90% and you’re gonna get a 500 mile range, count on it!

        Do you remember what Conservatives were saying back when the mileage standards were increased? It’s the same old same old. They fight tooth and nail, we get the job done, and it starts all over again with the next advance.

        1. James Kiser Avatar
          James Kiser

          pleas name the EV which gets 500 miles on a charge?

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            None right now, but you guys act like you are not familiar with how technology evolves and gets better and better.

            It’s gonna happen, naysayers be danged…

          2. James Kiser Avatar
            James Kiser

            so in other words my side is telling the truth while your side dreams of unicorns and magic carpet rides. I love it.

      2. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        It’s easy to charge 90% in 10 minutes when the grid load is 90% less.

        See Omnibus Bill 2023

        “H. R. 2617—620
        available to UNFPA after March 1 for obligation for the
        remainder of the fiscal year in which the report is submitted.
        GLOBAL HEALTH ACTIVITIES
        SEC. 7058. (a) IN GENERAL.—Funds appropriated by titles III
        and IV of this Act that are made available for bilateral assistance
        for child survival activities or disease programs including activities
        relating to research on, and the prevention, treatment and control
        of, HIV/AIDS may be made available notwithstanding any other
        provision of law except for provisions under the heading ‘‘Global
        Health Programs’’ and the United States Leadership Against HIV/
        AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003 (117 Stat. 711; 22
        U.S.C. 7601 et seq.), as amended: Provided, That of the funds
        appropriated under title III of this Act, not less than $575,000,000
        should be made available for family planning/reproductive health,
        including in areas where population growth threatens biodiversity
        or endangered species        “

        1. James Kiser Avatar
          James Kiser

          No battery is capable of handling that charge unless you want a fire. My sisters Tesla takes on avg 45 minutes for a 80% charge which as I can ascertain is about as good as it gets.

      3. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        It’s the goal of Tesla super chargers and has been reported as the target for public chargers.

        The issue is, how long do you want to wait at a public charging station for the electric fill up equivalent of a tank of gas?

        At home an overnight charge current equivalent to an electric dryer, 230v @ 30 amps but for 8 hours can more or less be accommodated by the current grid. However, move that to nation wide public charging stations with the equivalent of gas stations with 8-12 pumps while radically decreasing the charging time is a whole different ball game. It requires an order of magnitude increase in current density and grid capacity. We saw a hint of that last summer when California told people not to charge their cars to prevent blackouts, and those were at domestic charging current.

        How do we propose to do nationwide transportation if a road trip requires an 8 hour recharge every several hundred miles? It does not work. We gotta have electric energy density and refueling approaching what we get today from fossil fuels. That is a lot of current. It is not trivial.

        There is scant evidence that advocates understand the issue, nor are there realistic plans to solve the problem. Folks blithely wave their hands and say “We’re building a nationwide network of public charging stations.” It ain’t that easy.

        1. Matt Adams Avatar
          Matt Adams

          A Model S’s battery is 230Ah, to achieve 10 minutes (0.166667 of an hour) it would require 1380 amps.

          That’s for a single car.

          People who make these policy decisions have zero understanding of math or technology.

          1. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            I’m not sure I want to be hanging around 8-12 big batteries charging at that rate at a public charging station. That’s a lot of current moving around and big time rapid changes in battery chemistry. What could go wrong?

            We’re so high up on the IC technology and learning curve that we don’t realize how exceptional it is.

          2. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            Exactly, not to mention you’re just making a giant electromagnet if you don’t blow up a battery.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    re: ” That law anticipates banning the sale of new combustion vehicles within ten years.”

    how much trouble is it for you to provide the words of the
    law here ?

    Not that I doubt it but what I’m thinking/wondering if it is more a goal that can and will be adjusted much like we have for things like CFCs and the Chesapeake Bay Cleanup as well as other things we try to phase out or reach a started goal on.

    The major car manufacturers seem quite certain that people are going to buy EVs in large numbers:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1aecc13cbf06848542e12fd327cc8a222c57a5395e37fd282d8032baed1655f7.jpg

    1. Paul Sweet Avatar
      Paul Sweet

      This is what I found after combing through the labyrinth of the LIS website.

      https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?212+ful+CHAP0263

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Thanks Paul!

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Message to Carol:

    So it IS okay to call public figures, politicians, others “idiots” and such and is not considered an Ad Hominem in BR? Correct?

    I’m not advocating removing Walter’s post. I’m just trying to understand the rules.

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Message to Carol:

    So it IS okay to call public figures, politicians, others “idiots” and such and is not considered an Ad Hominem in BR? Correct?

    I’m not advocating removing Walter’s post. I’m just trying to understand the rules.

  5. Paul Sweet Avatar
    Paul Sweet

    From what I understand the feds require autos to meet either the federal emissions standards or California standards (for internal combustion engine vehicles) at the time of sale. No other state is allowed to make any modifications because it would be a nightmare for manufacturers to have to meet 50 different sets of emissions standards. I don’t see a significant problem with Virginia choosing to go with the California standards for new cars instead of federal standards, as long as we can go back to the federal standards at any time.

    I agree that giving CARB authority to set minimum percentages of “zero emissions vehicles”, catalytic converter replacement, emissions inspections, and other ongoing maintenance standards is delegating too much authority out of state. I believe that the EPA sets standards for emissions inspections.

    It’s going to take some time to build up the electric grid to provide enough power to recharge all the coming electric vehicles. I sized the electric service for my new house to allow for a future 10 KW charger. Providing enough chargers for people who live in apartments will be an immense and costly challenge.

    BTW, until the electric grid is 100% wind, solar, hydroelectric, & nuclear there is no such thing as a “zero emissions vehicle” – the emissions just occur at the power plant instead of the vehicle’s tailpipe. A lot of electric vehicles are actually coal powered at this time.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: ” . I don’t see a significant problem with Virginia choosing to go with the California standards for new cars instead of federal standards, as long as we can go back to the federal standards at any time.”

      what’s wrong with Virginia doing just that?

      In terms of the grid capacity and reliability – there are ongoing changes that will reduce demand:

      1. – switchover from incandescent to LED
      2. – smart thermostats
      3. – basic heat pumps and advanced efficiency heat pumps
      4. – better new construction insulation.
      5. – “Smart” devices that stay warm/alive with far less current draw.
      6. – on demand/high efficiency water heaters

      none of the above will take place overnight but will they evolve as the EVs expand in numbers?

      I DO trust PJM as well as Dominion to do what they have always done, they haven’t abandoned their responsibilities.

      Why are we, these days, so untrusting of these institutions?

      1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
        James C. Sherlock

        Listen to yourself. “Untrusting” of Dominion Energy? Who could imagine such a thing?

    2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      I am a little out of date, but I believe historically Toyota and Honda, for example, always made 50-state cars. It did not make sense for them to have different designs for Ca and then another design for elsewhere. That was true for my 2006 Prius anyways. Whereas historically American autos did indeed have separate emissions designs for Ca and elsewhere.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        They did and California standards were tougher and cars from other states could not be titled in California.

        At some point, when New York and other states also considered their own standards, something had to happen.

        IIRC – the EPA did adopt the California standards nationwide.

  6. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    Jim’s afraid of losing his existing ICE car, but nobody’s talking about taking it away or even saying he can’t sell it; the question is sales of new cars.

    I bought a hybrid Toyota Highlander in 2005 and it’s still running strong. But if I replace it, it will probably be with a plug-in vehicle which is quite a bit cheaper to operate even than a hybrid.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      That’s a good point that is being completely overlooked.

      It’s the same way we introduced tougher emission AND safety standards,

      We did not take away people’s cars. We just let them gradually age out.

      I see 1970 and 1980 cars all the time on local roads, usually with antique license plates.

      All this FUD (fear, uncertainty and dread) for what?

    2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Excellent choice for you. Jim made a different one. That is called freedom.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        tell me you had “freedom” on building code or leaded gas or any number of other “choices”.

    3. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      That’s a good point that is being completely overlooked.

      It’s the same way we introduced tougher emission AND safety standards,

      We did not take away people’s cars. We just let them gradually age out.

      I see 1970 and 1980 cars all the time on local roads, usually with antique license plates.

      All this FUD (fear, uncertainty and dread) for what?

    4. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      Sure you can downsize to a smaller plug-in car, and with subsidies, if it is made in the USA, make it cost effective. With the large subsidies, the lower end Chevy Bolt can be a very nice budget car.

      (2020 RAV4 Hybrid here, after our 2006 Prius died)

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I know a fella that got a Rav4 Prime.
        Haven’t talked to him lately but he was under impressed with the electronic displays and info.

        1. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
          f/k/a_tmtfairfax

          I spent 6 weeks looking for a hybrid small SUV, not only in the Triangle, but also in a number of surrounding towns up to 50 miles away. How many did I find? Zip. One had to order one months in advance and be willing to pay well above sticker price.

          I went to a local Honda dealer and bought an ICE Honda CRV.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            My friend had to order, wait 6 months, pay over sticker…. ditto

      2. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        I also think is naive to believe that they’ll continue to allow ICE vehicles to be grandfathered. They will ban anything with an ICE without a thought or care for who it impacts.

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          Who is “they”?

          1. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            Government.

  7. James McCarthy Avatar
    James McCarthy

    Parsimony is a component of JAB’s grievance, i.e. if they offer better performance for the price. Better performance or benefit to the state as a whole may not matter. Conjecture about the grid issue assumes state officials are not competent to consider the impact of EVs upon power sources. Hyperbolic speculation is a conservative disease.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      “Benefit to the state” is a short summary of the progressive dogma of the superiority of and necessity for a command economy.

      Benefit to the state as determined by “experts” in their construct. “Experts” are people who agree with them.

      “Conjecture about the grid issue assumes state officials are not competent to consider the impact of EVs upon power sources.”

      The horror!

      There has never been any evidence of state incompetence in assessing the risks of a negative impact of green energy on the grid. Has there?

      “Hyperbolic speculation” is defined as an opinion based on data that the Mr. McCarthy does not wish to discuss.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        There has been , all along, it’s never been a perfect process, but you’re driving a far cleaner and greener car because of the govt that did indeed take several iterations before it got to good.

        The problem with Conservatives is they oppose tooth and nail every inch of the way then after they claim credit!

    2. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      “Conjecture about the grid issue assumes state officials are not competent to consider the impact of EVs upon power sources.”

      They aren’t, see California.

      As for the rest of your comment, it’s your standard hogwash.

  8. Warmac9999 Avatar
    Warmac9999

    I intend to hang onto my 2015 gas powered vehicle. The EV situation is unstable at best and puts the government clearly in charge of its future. EV is too much risk for too little reward at this time.

  9. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    I was just telling my wife the other day that I would love to own a hybrid vehicle, but I want a manual transmission, and so far no one has offered such a vehicle for sale in the United States.

    I would already have purchased an electric motorcycle if they were not so ridiculously high priced. I am going to wait until prices are a little closer to a comparable gas-powered bike.

    Until the two issues noted above are addressed, I’ll continue to drive my 5-speed economy car (close to 40 mpg in summer) and ride my gasoline-powered motorcycles (close to 50 mpg if I stay out of the throttle).

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      At least with the latter even on high price days you’re only spending ~$20.

    2. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      We’ve had 2 Ford Fusion hybrids. They’ve been wonderful cars. 40+ mpg. The infinitely variable transmissions take a little getting used to but work well. Ford did a great job making the transitions from electric to gas and back transparent. Gotta look at the dash display to know when it happens.

      OTOH, I still love my old manual trans V8 Mustang too.

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        Technologically, there is nothing preventing a manufacturer from offering a manual transmission in a hybrid car. I would buy one immediately upon learning it was available.

        Motorcycle-wise, I would miss shifting to choose my own ideal gear ratios entering and exiting turns and such. The “single speed” aspect of electric bikes will definitely take some getting used to. But as I said, I’m willing to try one as soon as the pricing does not make it seem like they should be made of gold and platinum.

  10. Randy Huffman Avatar
    Randy Huffman

    As with all the other Green mandates, these rules will significantly effect those who cannot afford to pony up for a new EV car. What a farce. My prediction is the market will tell the auto makers it is not in their best interest to abandon gasoline vehicles, and there will be pressure to change the rules. Just watch.

  11. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
    f/k/a_tmtfairfax

    The grid issue is the biggest issue facing the U.S. today and for the foreseeable future. If the U.S. has anything remotely nearing an all-electric economy, the entire grid needs reliability to 99.99999% across the board. This would be true if we had 100% of the power generated by coal or 100% of the power generated by renewables. It also needs added capacity and substantial redundancies.

    Are there plans to achieve this? And by when? And at what cost?

    And where are the elected officials on this? Probably at the same place as the MSM and the public — not a clue.

  12. AlH - Deckplates Avatar
    AlH – Deckplates

    EV’s is an idea whose time has not come yet. Cost per mile for ownership, over the lifecycle, is too high for the EV’s. Power source for EV’s cannot be overlooked, due to the unreliability of the grid. And there is little substantiated data to compare the Environmental Impact of EV’s to fossil fueled automobiles. EV’s, construction, maintenance and disposal – all pollute.

    Safety is another factor – that is crash survivability. NHSTA & IIHS provide data with ratings. Smaller cars & lighter cars do not fare well in crashes. And EV’s construction are lighter due to the weight being a large factor in power consumption. For crashes, there is a physics concept applicable here, relative to mass and kinetic energy.

    As for tying our state’s mandates to another state, it is neither reasonable nor equitable due to taxation, and no representation. For example, this is also indirectly true with the windmills. It directs our tax revenue to outside the state, and without benefiting the state’s taxpayers. This is done by mandating a service. IF we mandate, we must find a funding source – all should be approved by the taxpayers.

    I will not buy an EV until all the issues with them are resolved. Some examples are, initial costs, Lifecyle costs, fueling, reliability, and in particular safety. For the government to fund them, for other people to buy, with my tax money is wrong.

  13. vicnicholls Avatar
    vicnicholls

    Same here – guns, cars, personal property, soul: none are for sale.

  14. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    Part of what gives the Democrats in Congress the capability to ban gasoline vehicles, is that the U.S. Automakers are asking for that. The automakers have decided forcing Americans to buy US-made EVs is good path for them. Among other benefits to US autos, their pesky competitor, Toyota for example, is shut out, both the politically unfavored (for U.S. Liberals) hybrids are banned in the future, and Toyota’s nifty Plug-in Hybrids will have limited allowed sales, and Toyota will have to build more plants in USA even to do that.

    The new IRA bill is extremely protectionist in nature. Yes we need to do more manufacture in the USA, but we also need to rely on Japan as an US ally, why the heck are we kicking Japan in the butt, as if they are Russia or Iran? Toyota are the ones who brought us incredible hybrids, and they are our friends.

    1. James McCarthy Avatar
      James McCarthy

      Given North Korea’s and China’s military threats inthe Far East, economic competition between US and Japan is not a deal breaker. For many years, conservatives complained about the shift of jobs and manufacturing capabilities elsewhere, any protectionism in the IRA makes sense.

  15. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    How is your old no catalytic converter car running these days, JAB?

  16. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    Ironic that JAB and other EV naysayers here are pretty consistently fear-mongering the grid reliability issue for renewables. Rolling blackouts are unavoidable so they say. Well the great thing about EVs is they can double as energy storage systems to run your home – quite cost efficiently it turns out:

    “To appreciate how much electrical power the [F-150] Lightning can provide, consider that even the standard-range version has a usable battery capacity of 98.0 kilowatt-hours, more than seven Tesla Powerwalls—a well-regarded home battery, The Powerwalls cost $10,500 each, while a base Lightning costs only $41,769—43% less than seven Tesla batteries—plus you get a truck for free…. The Lightning can pump as much as 9.6 kilowatts into your home, which is enough to power everything you’ll need during a power failure…”

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      but, but , 6yr olds are forced into slave labor to mine the lithium…..

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      While your car is keeping on the lights and appliances, I suppose you can use your refrigerator to drive to work.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        That was pretty funny snark there, JAB. Well done…

      2. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        The problem being that is you’d have to find a Ford Lightening, which you’ll be paying over MSRP ($80,974) for the XLT extended range. You’ll also need to invest in a transfer switch and the 80-amp Ford Charge Station Pro.

        Then you’ll have to contend with the fact that cold weather cuts the battery life in half and they also have battery issues before that.

        So theoretically, you can power your house, but for how long is the question. because it won’t be the claimed 10 hours unless you’re just running light bulbs.

  17. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “My reaction: Go Californicate yourself”

    “No profanity… No clever efforts to evade the restriction by substituting characters or using synonyms”

    🤷‍♂️

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Fair comment.

  18. James Kiser Avatar
    James Kiser

    The whole electric car/ save the planet crap issue is a scam designed to feed off subsidies which will be given but no results will be achieved. Notice how the subsidy in the infrastructure bill was for American made cars and batteries and the doddering grandpa in chief has already thrown that out the door. Cue the fake Manchin histrionics.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      We give subsidies for other energy equipment, windows, insulation, etc, no?

      1. James Kiser Avatar
        James Kiser

        Can you spell the name of the Barrak Obama solar firm that never produced a single solar unit? Was it Solyandra?

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