Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

WSH, WL — THE SHAPE OF THE HOUSING CRISIS

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

The 12 March front page headline in WaPo says it all:

“Foreclosure wave threatens stability of housing market.”

Do not wait for a journalist to package the contemporary condition of the housing market for you. Go to Realtor.com and check out what has happened this week in your Village, your Neighborhood, your Cluster or even your Dooryard. In just the last few days the picture has changed dramatically.

The snow has melted? Daylight Savings Time starts tomorrow? A week until Spring arrives? Who knows the catalyst?

Whatever it is, houses that have been off the market – or have not been listed in years – are flooding back and many are $100K below what they and similar dwellings were listed for just a few months ago.

There appears to be a rush to move foreclosures, do short sales and get out of underwater dwellings, especially the WSH, WL dwellings.

If one looks at the national scene, Virginia and especially the National Capital SubRegion (Washington MSA is a passable surrogate) SHOULD be better positioned than most vis a vis employment / unemployment, foreclosures and dwelling prices.

Those who applied an analysis of Radial Bands (a tool of Regional Metrics) to get a handle on the housing market / foreclosure patterns will not be surprise at the spacial distribution but most will be shocked at the scope of the value loss.

On 11 March CNN had a story that was similar the WaPo story a day later. CNN painted a more rosie picture in the headline and the first few paragraphs but came clean later in the story. The reader comments were very pointed. For example: “How can you distort the truth just to save your real estate ad revenue…” Sounds like they had read THE ESTATES MATRIX… (Today’s WaPo Real Estate section was four pages and the feature story was how to do a short sale.)

The other shoe – commercial real estate – is about to drop. Insiders have been saying for a year that April of 2010 will be the month.

And now the REALLY scarey news:

On Friday WaPo headlined: “No rush to restructure Fannie, Freddie; Who wants to topple the housing giants? Politics, shaky economy make it an unsavory task for Obama, analysts say.”

Well yes, but until there is a Fundamental Transformation – including rational location criteria for residential lending – the problem will only grow worse.

As much as Groveton, rightly, beats on the Clown Show in Richmond, let us not forget the Super Clown Show in the Federal District.

As EMR has argued in these posts for six years:

WSH, WL.

(For those just coming in, WSH, WL means Wrong Size House, Wrong Location. See TRILO-G – PART SIX – Chapter 22 – Without Shelter: The Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis. Also keyword search ‘affordable and accessible’ in Chapters 46, 47 & 48. )

EMR

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68 responses to “WSH, WL — THE SHAPE OF THE HOUSING CRISIS”

  1. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    EMR –

    My qualitative sense is that the second shoe of the housing crisis is indeed dropping. I know of many homes which were on the market, taken off the market and put back on the market recently as a short sale. The difference between the loan amount and the winning bids in short sale transactions cane be staggering.

    I also agree that the commercial real estate market is poised on the edge of the precipice. It may well be the "third shoe" to drop. Once can only wonder how many shoes this octopus is wearing.

    As for my "Clown Show in Richmond" term – I am repenting. I have resolved to tone down the rhetoric and focus more on the facts and logic. My reasons for his may be found here – http://grovetonsvirginia.wordpress.com/2010/03/13/spring-cleaning/

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Commercial real estate – that one will hit; hit hard; and have a tremendous impact for a long time. But our local clown show (Fairfax County) is trying to pretend it won't happen for the benefit of the Tysons landowners.

    I went to John Foust's budget meeting in McLean last week. The county finance staff understands and is doing a good job of analyzing the issues. Not surprising.

    But on the land use side, the show continues. Giving away huge increases in density still seems quite likely. Yet, once they are given away, it's very hard, but not impossible, to take back. Given the likelihood that many of the existing landowners may hit default on their mortgages, the good possibility they cannot get financing for new construction, and the huge hit building infrastructure will cause to Fairfax County, it is insane to give away density at this time. The County should, instead, amend the Comp Plan to show possible density increases; give the landowners the ability to make future requests for such density; but not give away anything now. Make them come in when they are ready to build and buy the density with proffers that match what is needed when the building will start.

    This will be a test of whether we have more local government by campaign contribution (as Judge Dillon always suspected) or whether we have adult leadership in the county.

    TMT

  3. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    what? no more clown show nor “Descendants of Pocahontas”?

    this is pretty shocking.

    why the change of heart?

    re: housing meltdown

    down here is Spotsytucky as some come-heres refer to the place, for the first time in more than a decade, school teachers, deputies and other local, non-commuting workers can afford a home as we're actually seeing home prices around the 200K range.

  4. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    I've decided to be a bit more serious with the political commentary. Look more at the actual bills and votes. Try to start the quantitative analysis I have always wanted to get going. Since I still work it will be catch as catch can. However, I felt the rhetoric was detracting from the point.

    Lower real estate assessments have a ripple effect. First, there is less tax money. This is already being felt. Second, the money flows in new directions. This happened when Fairfax County got more education money back from the state this year than in 2009 (note: it still pays a lot more than it receives). Banks get stressed and sometimes fail. Quite a few banks have failed every week across the US since the recession started. It's still happening. A commercial meltdown will only accelerate this trend.

    On the good news side, housing becomes more affordable. Teachers, deputies and other non-commuters can afford to buy a house. This somewhat begs the question of where they were living before the meltdown. Presumably they were renting, not they own.

    But the big question which is rarely asked in a straightforward manner is, "Will this recession end?". Normally, you would think that the answer would be, "Of course. Recessions always end.". However, I hear people like EMR imply that it won't end. That this period of high unemployment, low to no growth and deflated assets is "the new normal". That would have profound consequences for everybody.

    As for Spotsytucky … the "come heres" should be so lucky. My Grandfather came from Kentucky – Newport, KY to be precise. For years, it was the red light district for Cincinatti across the river in Ohio. I still have kin there. So, when I went back last summer imagine my surprise to find a thriving artists enclave complete with nice shops, an aquarium, etc. Richard Florida would be proud. TMT would also like Kentucky. Or, at least he'd like Rabbit Hatch. Rabbit Hatch elected a dog as mayor. Another dog was runner up while a cat finished third. Judge Dillon would be proud.

    http://www.dogchannel.com/dog-news/2008/11/06/dog-elected-honorary-mayor-of-kentucky-town.aspx#

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Groveton – I must confess that I've never been to Kentucky, although I've been to Cincinnati. Obviously, I've never flown to Cincinnati.

    I suspect I'd like the people in Rabbit Hatch. I've done business with quite a few people from rural areas over my career. On the whole, I've found them to be both nice people and sophisticated business operators.

    Fairfax County finance staff talked about the "new normal" at Supervisor Foust's meeting last week. The message to the citizens was Fairfax's retrenchment (such that it is) is not temporary, but permanent. I'm not sure that all bought the story, either that elimination of non-core programs and administrative expenses were complete enough, or that the cuts were permanent, depending on one's perspective. But it struck me that there have been changes in the local government to reflect the fact that the money is just not there. Time will tell.

    TMT

  6. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    If you want to do more locally than the state wants to do – it's all about money not the different kinds of taxes that might be imposed in my view.

    If you want more locally, then petition your county to raise the tax rates on the taxes they already are empowered to levy.

    Don't say that the state has "failed to fund" when the truth is that the economy itself – both at the state level and at the county level is exactly what has "failed to fund".

    No fiscal conservative in my mind should EVER even have in their vocabulary the phrase "the state has failed to fund" because it's really a seriously heretical and hypocritical concept – for a self-avowed fiscal conservative.

    here's something I came across recently that I find pretty shocking –

    Alexandria City Public Schools $19487 per pupil funding

    Fairfax County Public Schools $14292 per pupil funding

    by far, the largest chuck of money at the state and local level is education-related and certainly a local option.

  7. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Groveton:

    Great news! There is a lot to like in your spring cleaning at Groveton’s Virginia. However, is it is not possible to have AntiPartisanism AND still call a spade a spade – The Clown Show in Richmond?

    In the months ahead, EMR plans to expand on strategies to obtain a sustainable trajectory without a ‘recovery.’

    TMT:

    You are right: It is foolish to give away density now. There is already too much land devoted to Urban land uses inside the logical location of EVERY Clear Edge.

    Have you given thought to the ‘private transfer fee’ as a way to give ‘Deevelopers’ and incentive to do a better job of evolving quality places to live, work and seek recreation? It has potential. But first there must be a well-considered Conceptual Framework for what settlement patterns and Mobility and Access system will best serve the Vast Majority of citizens. We hope to have time to explore that too before too long.

    Larry:

    With a Fundamental Change in governace structure, citizens can decide just where they want their money to go.

    EMR spells out how in SotF.

    After years of political pandering by both Clans, the big chanllenge will be to convince the majority of citizens that anything like the current level of Service (as defined in GLOSSARY — AGENCY, ENTERPRISE AND INSTITUTIAL SERVICE) will take VASTLY MORE of everyone's resources — time and money — than they now 'pay.'

    There is no Big Rock Candy Mountain.

    EMR

  8. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=arlington,+va&mrt=realestate&attrid=ee6d68e1e5cb9843_&ie=UTF8

    This is just getting warmed up. All the news down here in Tidewater say real estate is never better. Our government jobs insulate the region, or so the story goes. Can't happen here is the mantra.

    Someone just bought the house next door out of foreclosure for 20 percent less than the 2004 price when new. Been vacant for two years at least. Last week, a short sale down the street was even lower.

    The city's assessment computer still thinks its 2007 for tax purposes, which leads to…Another neighbor says they are giving the mortgage company an ultimatum. Accept a short or take the keys. They don't care because one of their rentals just opened up and they are moving in.

    Meanwhile other neighbors are running numbers, calculating the point they say the hell with it. It's a fascinating mathematical exercise to watch, as innumerable variables are analyzed in countless equations all designed to come to the same conclusion.

    By and large the neighbors fall into two groups. Civilians who have itchy feet, and government types whose jobs depend on not having adverse personal events.

    I would say that in Tidewater every house is shadow inventory, giving the impression that all is well. In reality, the line of departure isn't coordinated yet. Some have more variables than others.

  9. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    EMR – do you know what an UDA is and what the current legislation is in the General Assembly?

    simply stated – they require ADDITIONAL areas designated for higher density – as opposed to mandating increased density in already-dense areas.

    would you say that is the opposite of what you advocate?

  10. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Darrell makes a fascinating observation which basically comes down to this.

    Who is responsible for taking the financial beating that is the consequence of bad loan practices based on greed and avarice?

    And the answer coming down from more and more people – is that it's not their responsibility and if they are upside-down/underwater due to no fault of their own – they are not going to spend the next 20-30 years of their lives in a negative equity position and the forces that made the bad loans are going to "eat" a lot more loans.

    Now how this affects EMR's position of fundamental transformation – let's ask this:

    Is fundamental transformation the point where people decide that renting a place to live is much safer and has many more advantages than buying one?

    Of course, that begs the question also of how people will build up equity in their assets if not in a house.

  11. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Darrell:

    Thank you for the map reference and for the good observations!

    You are right on all counts. Especially good observations from your Dooryard and about the two perspectives of Unit owners in the Hampton Road NUR.

    There are some good aspects of the shelter crisis:

    This experience drives home the point that it has NEVER been good to speculate on owner occupied residential real estate. Far more have lost money than have made money over the past 70 years. One hears about the winners because winners brag, losers quietly move on and real estate agents are AGENTS that profit from churn.

    Overall and in the long term, home values go up at the rate of inflation but ONLY IF one continues to invest because they are a depreciating asset. In is best to invest in the Unit if the owner also invests in the Dooryard and in the Cluster, Neighborhood and Village. That is one of the keys to PROPERTY DYNAMICS.

    As Larry pointed out, some who could not afford a house now can.

    However:

    1. Some income profiles, lifestyles and Lifestatuses are better suited to renting not buying,

    2. It is very hard to build Affordable and Accessible dwellings for those in the bottom half of the Ziggurat which are SHD Units, and

    3. WSH, WL is NEVER a good place to buy, regardless of the price because Dysfunctional human settlement patterns are unsustainable.

    Did everyone see the BBC story about the demand (read Global price pressure) re oil in China?

    Gasoline will continue to go up and remote Radius Bands will continue to feel pressure unless citizens can create Critical Mass and Balance within Clear Edges.

    EMR

  12. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    remote radius bands?

    solo-driving an SUV 100 miles a day is but one way to commute.

    At the other end of the spectrum is riding a bus/train/van whose popularity skyrockets every time that gasoline prices do the same.

    I do not believe that higher gasoline prices will drive people out of the suburbs back to the urban cores but rather drive them out of their solo cores onto buses and vans.

    The costs of moving back to the urban cores is more than the price of riding on a bus and that will be the deciding factor for many.

    i.e. Keep your house, keep the schools your kids are in and just switch from your SUV to a bus/van

    ..or.. sell your house and lose your pants.. pay a bunch more for a house in the urban core or worse..have to rent an apartment and your kids potentially dumped into an unsavory urban school….

    I predict.. the surbanites will "take the bus".

  13. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    re: " Did everyone see the BBC story about the demand (read Global price pressure) re oil in China?"

    yes.. but what I got out of it is that more and more Chinese are buying automobiles that use gasoline and in part because they will be able to live further from where they work.

    No?

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I think Larry is closer on this question. Mass transit – most especially buses – will play a larger role in linking exurbans to jobs for the reasons he stated. Teleworking will also begin to grow rapidly. If 25% of a company's staff teleworks, a company can lower its overhead substantially. Moreover, as the pace of broadband accelerates, working "there" becomes more like working "here."

    Moreover, as jobs become even less secure, who can afford to move near his/her job only to find it disappearing.

    TMT

  15. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    Telework? Stand by if that takes off. The average office worker will be telecommuting to the VEC instead of his former office.

    When companies start re-evaluating processes, watch out! It's cheaper to send those bytes to a lower paid off shore facility where they can keep their eye on workers, than to trust high paid US employees to work from home.

  16. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    re: teleworking.. yes for jobs that are 100% teleworking.. I agree but some jobs will require BOTH a physical presence AND teleworking.. a mixture.. those jobs will stay here…

  17. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    It is time for a few notes for Larry on the basics of understanding human settlement pattern:

    Part I of V

    Larry said:

    “EMR – do you know what an UDA is and what the current legislation is in the General Assembly?

    “simply stated – they require ADDITIONAL areas designated for higher density – as opposed to mandating increased density in already-dense areas.”

    Of course EMR ‘knows’ about the UDAs and related efforts.

    If Larry had read what EMR has referred to in his columns, Larry would know that EMR has been urging environmental Institutions to support alternatives to the UDA approach for over two decades.

    MainStream environmental Institutions find it hard to do this because they are told by their funders that UDAs are better than the current trajectory and “you cannot be against everything.”

    If Larry had looked at “Blueprint for a Better Region” he would been able to calculate for himself why there is no need for more land for Urban land uses in the National Capital SubRegion where both he and EMR live.

    Fauquier County has had a version of UDAs (Service Districts) for about 40 years. EMR gave a lecture at the request of the Board of Supervisors in the early 90s on the importance of Service Districts (UDAs) and why it was important to SHRINK these Service Districts. Later for a client EMR reviewed a draft “replanning” of some of the Service Districts and pointed out the lack of Balance in the Districts. EMR’s 22 June 2008 column deals with this issue. As recently as last month EMR had discussions with current Supervisors about the replanning of Service Districts.

    Larry asked:

    “would you say that is the opposite of what you advocate”(?)

    Why bother to ask such a question?

    EMR

  18. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Part II of V

    Later Larry said:

    “Darrell makes a fascinating observation which basically comes down to this.

    “Who is responsible for taking the financial beating that is the consequence of bad loan practices based on greed and avarice?

    “And the answer coming down from more and more people – is that it's not their responsibility and if they are upside-down/underwater due to no fault of their own – they are not going to spend the next 20-30 years of their lives in a negative equity position and the forces that made the bad loans are going to "eat" a lot more loans.”

    That may be the view of individuals but the real question is how to extricate citizens from this position without Collapsing the economy. That is a question that Jim Bacon is grappling with.

    Until citizens understand the true nature of the problem and the cumulative impact of implementing what might seem like a smart individual tactic – just as they thought that buying a WSH, WL was a good idea – it is almost assured that the collective impact of these actions will be Collapse.

    The only bright spot is that the majority are NOT 12.5 Percenters with WSH, WL. (The 87 1 / 2 Percent Rule was calculated in based on 1980 to 2000 trends. The 00s boom pushed down this percentage and thus increased the number of 12.5 Percenters. But tossing even 20 percent of the Households off the back of the sleigh will Collapse the economy.

    “Now how this affects EMR's position of fundamental transformation – let's ask this:

    “Is fundamental transformation the point where people decide that renting a place to live is much safer and has many more advantages than buying one?”

    No, Fundamental Transformation will occur when the majority of citizens understand the need to evolve functional human settlement patterns. As noted earlier that means Critical Mass and Balance WITHIN Clear Edges.

    “Of course, that begs the question also of how people will build up equity in their assets if not in a house.”

    Citizens can build equity in Units, just not in WSH, WL.

    There is also a larger answer: Citizens must be provided the opportunity to ‘invest’ in Cluster, Neighborhood, Village and Community scale Enterprises, not just in blind trust gambling venues. More on that in the future.

    EMR

  19. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Part III of V

    Later Larry said:

    “remote radius bands?

    “solo-driving an SUV 100 miles a day is but one way to commute.

    “At the other end of the spectrum is riding a bus/train/van whose popularity skyrockets every time that gasoline prices do the same.

    “I do not believe that higher gasoline prices will drive people out of the suburbs …”

    THESE STATEMENTS ARE EXACTLY WHY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL DISCUSSION USING CORE CONFUSING WORDS.

    No one knows what “suburbs” means in this context.

    Larry lives in the Countryside portion of an outer Radius Band of the National Capital SubRegion. He does not yet grasp that he and his Clustermates do not live ‘somewhere else.’ He also does not grasp the fact that the majority of those in his Community could join together to designate Centroids, and draw Clear Edges and work to create Critical Mass and Balance in each of these Urban enclaves but that is another story.

    “… back to the urban cores …”

    Perhaps Larry could draw a map of what he thinks a “core” is. Turns of that the Core of the National Capital SubRegion ALREADY contains 75 percent of the Units and 85 percent of the Jobs in the SubRegion.

    Without a firm grip on Vocabulary there is no value in discussion.

    “…. but rather drive them out of their solo cores onto buses and vans.”

    Outside Clear Edges, there is no economic possibility of providing shared vehicle systems for a significant percentage of work trips.

    As noted earlier:

    After years of political pandering by both Clans, the big challenge will be to convince the majority of citizens that anything like the current level of Service (as defined in GLOSSARY — AGENCY, ENTERPRISE AND INSTITUTIONAL SERVICE) will take VASTLY MORE of everyone's resources — time and money — than they now 'pay.'

    But even then shared vehicle systems serving scattered Urban citizens is beyond the pale.

    “The costs of moving back to the urban cores is more than the price of riding on a bus and that will be the deciding factor for many.

    “i.e. Keep your house, keep the schools your kids are in and just switch from your SUV to a bus/van

    “..or.. sell your house and lose your pants.. pay a bunch more for a house in the urban core or worse..have to rent an apartment and your kids potentially dumped into an unsavory urban school….

    “I predict.. the surbanites will "take the bus".

    Again without an understanding of what ‘core’ means and what Balance and Critical Mall requires this is a meaningless babble.

    The longer that the babble goes on the greater the potential of Collapse.

    EMR

  20. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Part IV of V

    Later Larry said:

    “re: " Did everyone see the BBC story about the demand (read Global price pressure) re oil in China?"

    “yes.. but what I got out of it is that more and more Chinese are buying automobiles that use gasoline and in part because they will be able to live further from where they work.

    “No?

    NO. The vast majority of the ‘workers’ in China do not ‘drive to work.’ A few at the top of the Ziggurat can afford an Autonomobile. If the US of A economy Collapses, even those at the top will not be able to afford a car.

    The intent of raising this point was that even if citizens in the US of A cut gasoline consumption to the level of the EU, the price will still go up and make dysfunctionally located Units inaccessible.

    Part V of V

    This is a good place to put in a note about a past posts:

    On 12 Oct 2009 Larry said:

    “I found this document to be very information with respect to the issue of land-use and transportation:

    " OPTIONS FOR IMPROVING THE COORDINATION OF TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE PLANNING IN VIRGINIA" 2004

    ‘I think EMR … would find it useful …

    “in this document they survey LEGISLATIVE PRACTICES FOR COORDINATING TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE PLANNING

    “and they start off ….”

    EMR went to the SYNERGY library and dug out the report to see if he had missed something when it came out.

    He had not. A quick review indicated there was nothing in the report EMR did not know a decade before he started writing SotF. In fact it would be surprising if anyone who took one of EMRs early 80s GMU Law School classes on Land Use Controls to not known most of what was in the report, including the history of land use controls in the US of A and in Virginia.

    What could be shocking is that anyone could get away with putting out this compilation of pap and boilerplate and then claim that it addressed in any way the topic of the coordination of transportation and land use planning as required by the GA.

    What this suggests is that Larry believes EMR has been hiding under a rock and just decided to do some musings about human settlement patterns.

    This illustrates a basic problem which is reviewed at some length in SotF.

    Unlike the fields of astrophysics, molecular biology, nanotechnology (or ‘rocket science’) where citizens rely on ‘experts’ to understand the components and relationships, everyone believes they understand human settlement patterns. After all, citizens LIVE in human settlement patterns and since they live there they believe the ARE experts.

    This is complicated by the fact that humans like to think that they have made good decisions. Further their feel they have a right to make decisions if believe to be in their individual self-interest, even if they know, or should know, the collective result will be a disaster – Collapse.

    Luckily there are not a majority of 12.5 Percenters.

    EMR

  21. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    TMT

    Telework would have been a significant idea when EMR first strated advocating it in 1969 to move work from the New York State Capital to a Planned New Community across the Hudson River.

    Then, there were the resouces to support less efficient settlement patterns.

    Now?

    Fundamental Transformation.

    EMR

  22. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    OK Fundamental Transformation AND Telework

    EMR

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    EMR – If Jim Zook called you up and asked for advice as to how Tysons Corner should be planned around the four rail stations in a way that would benefit Tysons Corner owners, businesses, workers and residents, while protecting nearby communities and taxpayers, what five (or so) things would you recommend?

    TMT

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Of course, that begs the question also of how people will build up equity in their assets if not in a house.

    ==================================

    If you doon't beleive the US can rebound then

    invest in China, Indonesia, Brazil, India, and Russia.

    RH

  25. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Of course, that begs the question also of how people will build up equity in their assets if not in a house.

    ==================================

    If you don't beleive the US can rebound then

    Invest in China, Indonesia, Brazil, India, and Russia.

    RH

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Some renters will be able to mOve up and buy a home.

    Weren't we saying recently that part of the housing problem was that too many renters HAD bought homes?

    And if some renters are able to move up, won't the peopls who sold rental units also be able to move up?

    What is going to be left that doesn't sell? It will be the worst and oldest homes, and to some extent those that have high transportation costs.

    Who is going to buy them and clean up the mess?

    Developers and Speculators.

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Further their feel they have a right to make decisions if believe to be in their individual self-interest, even if they know, or should know, the collective result will be a disaster – Collapse.

    ==================================

    I guess they would rather beleive in their own decsions than someone else's decisions. A decision in molecular biology is pretty far removed from their life, but a decison that makes their property worthless is not.

    I guess they would rather beleive in their own decisions than beleive in communism or collectivism.

    RH

  28. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " Who is going to buy them and clean up the mess?

    Developers and Speculators."

    not unless they can make money on them – which implies there will be an underlying demand – right?

    If you believe EMR – these WSH-WL houses need to be plowed under like they're talking about with parts of Detroit.

  29. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    houses need to be plowed under like they're talking about with parts of Detroit.

    ==================================

    Don't expect the farmers to plow them under. There is no demand there either, unless we have big farm subsidies.

    RH

  30. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    oh you won't need subsidies. Just plow the house under and don't pay taxes on the land or just walk away and let the Wall Street lien-holders and the county worry about it.

    the rest will happen…guaranteed.

    what this has taught us is that walking away is not the moral hell that folks had been led to believe.

    so.. no.. no subsidies … just walk.

  31. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The Federal Reserve reported today that Industrial Production increased in February by 1.7% compared to the same month last year, the largest increase since the 2.2% gain in January 2008. The February gain followed a year-to-year increase in industrial production 0f 0.90% in January, marking the first time of two consecutive monthly gains since January-February of 2008, and reversing 21 months of negative annual growth from March 2003 to December 2009. "

    The end is near, sell your house NOW.

    RH

  32. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    If you are going to walk away, why plow the house under, just leave it stand until itlooks like JB's picture above.

    What I'm saying is that something will happen to that property at some price. If people walk away from it, the county will auction it off.

    It will be purchased by Developers and Speculators.

    RH

  33. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    why go through a middle-man?

    but who is going to want a wrong-sized house in the wrong location to start with?

    do you not pay attention to EMR?

    we need to abandon subdivisions and let them became like other vacant (psuedo) farmland, eh?

    the new world will have people living cheek by jowl surround by combined animal feeding operations – raised organically of course so we can all become true "localvores".

  34. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Demand statistics for international scheduled air traffic showed continuing improvement in January

    Compared to the previous year, January passenger demand was up 6.4%. Against this improving demand, a 1.2% increase in passenger capacity in January pushed load factors to 75.9% (up from the 72.2% recorded for January 2009).

    For international passenger demand:

    * Asia Pacific carriers experienced a 6.5% increase in demand compared to the previous year.

    * Carriers in North America and Europe saw demand increase by 2.1% and 3.1% respectively.

    * Middle Eastern carriers grew throughout the recession. Growth accelerated to 23.6% in January.

    * Latin American carriers saw demand increase by 11% in January on the back of a strong regional economy.

    =================================

    Nice to see that ari travel is dead.

    The economy depends on travel. I predict those areas with the most travel will rebound soonestand most.

    RH

  35. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    TMT:

    You asked:

    “EMR – If Jim Zook called you up and asked for advice as to how Tysons Corner should be planned around the four rail stations in a way that would benefit Tysons Corner owners, businesses, workers and residents, while protecting nearby communities and taxpayers, what five (or so) things would you recommend?”

    Since EMR provided Jim Zook with advice on Tysons Corner and Fairfax County from the time he took office until EMR advised his clients that talking to him was a waste of time, what EMR would tell him would be that he should have been listening a long time ago.

    For a short summary see our last BRZ Column “A Picture is Worth a Thousand Lies.”

    The question is still: When a majority of citizens realize what needs to be done, will there be the resources left to do it?

    As a reminder for those who came in late, EMR will do a short post soon outlining the needed steps.

    Larry said:

    “but who is going to want a wrong-sized house in the wrong location to start with?

    “do you not pay attention to EMR?”

    NOW YOU ARE TALKING!

    One of the reasons I posted the note on the graphic that Jim used in the next post is that there was a ‘similar’ housing / development boom bust in the first decade of the 20th century. Young families rushed to scoop up the last of the homestead land in the 00s. They built little log cabins all over the North Fork of the Flathead.

    When we lived there in the 1950s and hunted on the Forest Service (West) side or hiked and fished on the Park Service (East) side of the river my father and I ran into gut wrenching examples of abandoned dishes, pots and pans, dolls and lives. These houses had the look of the ones in Jim’s graphic – except that they were surrounded by scrubby jack pines that reforested the clearings.

    As Joel Garreau pointed out there are similar examples in Ghost Towns and Ghost Valleys all over the West. At one point Joel thought that is what would happen to the overbuilt ‘Edge Cities.’ He did not count on the cheap energy driven settlement pattern scatteration of the 80s, 90s, and 00s.

    By the way here are some numbers that document why there is no need for ADDITIONAL UGAs:

    In Loudoun County there are zoned but unbuilt 38,860 dwellings, 91.7 M sq ft of office / industrial and 7.5 M sq ft of retail space.

    More on what needs to be done in a post soon.

    EMR

  36. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " In Loudoun County there are zoned but unbuilt 38,860 dwellings, 91.7 M sq ft of office / industrial and 7.5 M sq ft of retail space. "

    yes.. but what about UDAs in Fredericksburg – housing for folks who commute 100 miles a day to NoVa jobs?

    who will buy homes in UDAs in Fredericksburg when for a lower price, they can live in a subdivision with a Single family detached, front and back yards, neighborhood schools and water & sewer?

    all for less than the cost of a cheek-by-jowl apartment?

  37. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Loudoun county is also home to the richest population in the nation.

    They are probably going to need those dwellings, retail, and office spaces.

    ——————————-

    Sure, there are ghost towns, there are whole Mayan cities subsumed by the jungles, too. meanwhile in China and Indonesia, central planners are currently planning and building dozens of new edge cities, as a way of allevieating congestion in the cenral areas.

    RH

  38. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    TMT:

    Upon further review:

    EMR may have been a bit hard on Jim Z.

    Jim Z. is not a bad person, he is a survivor. We are not sure if he ever REALLY disagreed with what EMR believed were the right steps to take vis a vis Tysons Corner. As EMR recalls he was supportive of the ideas in “Blueprint for a Better Region.”

    Zook just has never seen a way to get done what EMR (and perhaps Zook) think needs to happen.

    It is the dysfunctional governance structure that prevents evolution of functional human settlement patterns including functional shared-vehicle station area strategies.

    EMR

  39. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I'm like TMT. I'm convinced that we are dysfunctional but I'm looking for a path to change.

    And I'm watching Tysons Corner where TMT has identified some key issues that would seem to be serious impediments – as Tysons is currently configured.

    What is a win-win-win plan for Tysons?

  40. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There ought to be a law…

    RH says “Loudoun county is also home to the richest population in the nation.

    They are probably going to need those dwellings, retail, and office spaces.”

    Statements like this are the economic equivalent of screaming “fire” in a crowded subway station.

    There is not a creditable agency or university faculty in the Region that would project absorption of that space in 20 years in Loudoun County. If it were purchased at market value in 2006 or earlier the net present value will be zero in 13 years from now.

    If there is ever a need for that much space in the Washington MSA it will be closer to jobs and services.

    And then:

    “Sure, there are ghost towns, there are whole Mayan cities subsumed by the jungles, too. meanwhile in China and Indonesia, central planners are currently planning and building dozens of new edge cities, as a way of allevieating (sic) congestion in the cenral (sic) areas.”

    Talk about future ghost towns! Did not RH post just the other day that 20 million people had left these places?

    Besides, what was being planned were much closer to what Prof. Risse’s is calling for – balanced places to live and work, not ‘edge cities’ as defined by Garreau or anyone else.

    If you do not know what you are talking about, stop talking.

    AZA

  41. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    This is EMR’S last post on this string because it has become “tell-me-again-time.”

    Larry said:

    “yes.. but what about UDAs in Fredericksburg – housing for folks who commute 100 miles a day to NoVa jobs?”

    First, Fredericksburg IS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF VIRGINIA, that is why people who live in Greater Fredericksburg SubRegion have jobs in Springfield and Tysons Corner.

    Get out an air photo Larry. There are large areas of vacant and underutilized land that are INSIDE the logical location of the Clear Edge around Fredericksburg and the other Urban agglomerations in the Greater Fredericksburg SubRegion. Use and reuse that land to create Critical Mass and Balance.

    “who will buy homes in UDAs in Fredericksburg when for a lower price,…”

    When costs are fairly allocated the price difference between dwelling Units of the same size and amenity and the same proximity to Jobs, Services, Recreation and Amenity disappear.

    “… they can live in a subdivision with a Single family detached, front and back yards, neighborhood schools and water & sewer?”

    Who says that all new Single Household Detached Clusters would not have these amenities, regardless of location?

    “all for less than the cost of a cheek-by-jowl apartment?”

    Until you give up the unfounded neural linguistic frameworks you will never understand the evolution of functional human settlement patterns. The choice is yours.

    “And I'm watching Tysons Corner where TMT has identified some key issues that would seem to be serious impediments – as Tysons is currently configured.

    “What is a win-win-win plan for Tysons?”

    TMT has identified key issues and EMR has outlined in column after column win, win, win strategies.

    Do not expect EMR to repeat those just because you did not pay attention the last six times.

    EMR

  42. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    did TMT not pay attention the last 6 times also EMR?

    I think part of the job here is to understand why 300,000 people live in the Fredericksburg Area and at least 50% of those who work – commute 100 miles a day round trip if the option of having a nice place to live for the same amount of money existed in NoVa.

    Folks do not commute 100 miles a day – every day because they misunderstand their options – right?

    One must assume that most of them have made the tradeoff calculations correctly.

    Thousands of them drive 5 miles or less to a bus or van – and they do this every day 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year – for something they want and consider worth the sacrifice.

    If the only answer to this is to make this option more expensive – it still won't change how people feel about the appeal of living 50 miles from where they work.

    I think you have to come at this problem accepting that reality.

    Here's an essential truth – People can live like Groveton lives – on a large lot with well/septic without traffic noise or sketchy characters in the neighborhood and schools that give their kids a genuine opportunity to grow up with a good education for 2/3 to 3/4 less than it costs Groveton if they are willing to commute 8 times further a day than Groveton.

    Why would folks do that?

    until we understand why and deal with it on some level other than financial punishment of those who engage in it.. I don't think we we are anywhere close to fundamental transformation because people – have to want the solution rather than have it imposed on them.

    Either you think most of these folks are just plain stupid and don't realize how dumb they are in choosing their commute – or… they do know and there are no better options for them (in their minds).

  43. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "If there is ever a need for that much space in the Washington MSA it will be closer to jobs and services. "

    ===============================

    The jobs and services will be closer to Loudoun because that is where the wealthiest population is.

    Arlington and Alexandria and Fairfax would have taken your bet (above) 20 years ago, but now we have the facts in hand, and the fact is that Loudoun is the richest county in the nation, on a per family basis.

    Those three counties AND Howard County are all high on the list, but Loudon is still first. and in Maryland, howard ranks higher than Montgomery.

    Fauquier County, with its slow growth policies now ranks 65 on the list, behind even Goochland County, but ahead of Washington DC itself.(Year 2000 data, it is probably worse by now.)

    Goochland didn't make the top 20 in 2006 but by 2009 it ranked #16.

    Montgomery county was #8 in 2006 but dropped to #10 in 2010.

    Charles County wasn't on the list in 2006 but limbed to Number 21 by 2009.

    =================================

    Those are the published facts, and you cannot blame RH for them.

    The casual observation would have to be that more developed areas (at least around here) have not fared as well as more rural areas, and areas thet on;t actively impede growth fare better than those that do.

    RH

  44. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "If there is ever a need for that much space in the Washington MSA it will be closer to jobs and services. "

    ===============================

    The jobs and services will be closer to Loudoun because that is where the wealthiest population is.

    Arlington and Alexandria and Fairfax would have taken your bet (above) 20 years ago, but now we have the facts in hand, and the fact is that Loudoun is the richest county in the nation, on a per family basis.

    Those three counties AND Howard County are all high on the list, but Loudon is still first. and in Maryland, howard ranks higher than Montgomery.

    Fauquier County, with its slow growth policies now ranks 65 on the list, behind even Goochland County, but ahead of Washington DC itself.(Year 2000 data, it is probably worse by now.)

    Goochland didn't make the top 20 in 2006 but by 2009 it ranked #16.

    Montgomery county was #8 in 2006 but dropped to #10 in 2010.

    Charles County wasn't on the list in 2006 but limbed to Number 21 by 2009.

    =================================

    Those are the published facts, and you cannot blame RH for them.

    The casual observation would have to be that more developed areas (at least around here) have not fared as well as more rural areas, and areas thet on;t actively impede growth fare better than those that do.

    RH

  45. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Sorry for the double post.

    RH

  46. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Sorry for the double post.

    RH

  47. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Get out an air photo Larry. There are large areas of vacant and underutilized land that are INSIDE the logical location of the Clear Edge around Fredericksburg and the other Urban agglomerations in the Greater Fredericksburg SubRegion."

    =================================
    I remember taking some Chinese customers on a tour from DC to F'burg, years ago.

    They did not make any comment about the first part of the trip, but once we passed Springfield they were astonished by the amount of undeveloped land.

    RH

  48. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    When costs are fairly allocated the price difference between dwelling Units of the same size and amenity and the same proximity to Jobs, Services, Recreation and Amenity disappear.

    ===============================

    Isn't that the case now? Similar houses in similar locations tend to sell for similar prices.

    I think what you really mean is that prices should be controlled by charging costs differently.

    RH

  49. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I predict.. the surbanites will "take the bus".

    =================================

    I predict they will move their jobs, and some will move their homes.

    That is because if they live in suburban areas the bus is always an ADDITIONAL cost to their car, which still probably needs to be an SUV.

    And the bus will almost always take longer, be less convenient, and less comfortable than their car. When bus service is increased wnough to make it almost as attractive as auto service, it will also be as expensive as auto service.

    And, whenever there is a financial crisis, someone else decides what service you will have, and at waht price. Metro, for example, is currently cutting service and increasing fares.

    Metro is physically falling apart, and it has not yet paid a dime of its original construction costs.

    RH

  50. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    " In Loudoun County there are zoned but unbuilt 38,860 dwellings, 91.7 M sq ft of office / industrial and 7.5 M sq ft of retail space. "

    ==================================

    OK, so what? If it is not being used, what is the harm?

    Are we talking about zoned, or platted? If these are all platted lots, then the owners are merely playing by the rules, knowing that if they do not have a "vested interest" their value due to mere zoning expecatation is liable to be stolen from them.

    From the way it sounds, EMR would like to remove many of these already platted lots.

    No mention of how he would cover their losses in vested interest.

    RH

  51. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " I predict they will move their jobs, and some will move their homes."

    move their jobs where?

    not closer to where they live unless they want to take a substantial salary cut.

    NoVa workers make $70-100K and up – Fredericksburg workers makes 60K and less.

    In Fredericksburg, you can buy a NICE house for 300K. 300K in NoVa will buy you a fixer-upper at best or a TH.

    People already make these calculations and not only in our area – in virtually every urbanized area across the US that has a major north-south, east-west interstate and/or beltway.

    Time is a fungible commodity just like money – no?

    so 4 hours a day of your life that otherwise would be spent on a couch watching netflix movies is spent to gain you 50K more a year in money for a better car, house and health care.

    and folks are going to give this up because commuting
    "costs" more than solo-driving?

    let me know when this trend begins…..

    how to avoid $5 gasoline if yo already live in the burbs?

    move back or work locally?

    convince me..

  52. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    doesn't a platted lot not built on – revert?

    most vesting I see has a window on it…. then it expires.. right?

  53. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Doesn't a platted lot not built on – revert?

    most vesting I see has a window on it…. then it expires.. right?

    =============================

    Not in most places. Once you have a recorded lot, you have a recorded lot.

    That was the case in Florida, where lots were platted back in the 1930's but never built on.

    The county subsequently downzoned the land, then made it shore front non-buildable, and finally eemed it public access.

    The owners went to court and got all the rezoning subsequent to their building lots thrown out.

    If you had a platted lot that you never bult on, what would it revert TO? The person you bought it from?

    RH

  54. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    move their jobs where?

    not closer to where they live unless they want to take a substantial salary cut.

    ===============================

    I think companies will move jobs closer to where people live, and I think employees will demand it. Some employees willbe those with sufficient clout to make the decisions.

    This is already happening in Connecticut, whee some former wall street firms have relocated.

    I was listening to a spokesman for NVTA on the radio last week, and he said pretty much the same thing. Business interests were losing money to lost productivity related to NOVA traffic problems.

    While these people are normally Republican, they are becoming increasingly party blind in favor of transportation solutions. for some of them the solution will be to get out of town.

    Yes, salary cuts might be PART of the picture, but I believe the jobs will move, are moving, and have been moving. Just take a look around Manassas. NONE of the route234 business area was developed a few years ago, and now it is teeming with new jobs.

    RH

  55. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Jobs moving. I think Ray is right. More and more companies are moving west and south both in Fairfax County and from Fairfax County as many businesses want to be closer to the boss' home, workers' homes and lower rent.

    This is not to say Fairfax County will dry up by any means. But it is an interesting dynamic. It also has significant consequences for the County as it figures out what to do with Tysons. Planning Tysons extra big will require more infrastructure, higher taxes/fees and more debt. I see a risk in over-committing resources to Tysons as well as under-committing them. But the biggest risk of all is that the County will make decisions to please the landowners/campaign contributors, rather than act carefully and incrementally. This is not the time to belief the rhetoric.

    TMT

  56. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    More on vested interest.

    "Law could change property vesting

    A bill awaiting Gov. Bob McDonnell's signature could change the way counties determine vested property rights in Virginia.

    ………………………

    The Stafford zoning administrator had determined that The Crucible was a school, a use permitted by right in A-1 agricultural zoning. When county officials changed the zoning ordinance to bar facilities such as The Crucible as a by-right use, the company claimed it had a vested right to build a facility in Hartwood.

    The Supreme Court of Virginia decided that the zoning administrator's determination was not a significant affirmative governmental act and therefore The Crucible did not have a vested right to use the property as it had planned.

    Although House Bill 1250 would not overturn that Crucible decision, it would change the criteria for determining a vested right. If it is signed into law, it would make a written verification by a zoning administrator a significant affirmative governmental act."

    ……………………….

    "The whole concept behind vested rights is protecting your investment," Toalson said. "This is just a clarification, it doesn't change anything. The government can't pull the rug out from under someone."

    http://fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2010/032010/03152010/533990

    RH

  57. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    so… how many counties are going to write into the zoning administrators job description that he/she cannot make such a determination without approval of his supervisor and/or the BOS?

    no individual and certainly no unelected individual – unaccountable to voters should have the right to decide by-right uses – in either direction.

    do you want a shooting range approved next door to you by an unelected administrator?

    nope.

    that's what happened.

    your property rights END at your property line.

    If you do things that are going to degrade adjacent property owners enjoyment and use of their property – they are going to assert THEIR property rights and you will be restricted.

    All this accomplished was to warn all BOS not to allow their zoning administrators the power to render by-right land-use decisions.

    So BOS all over Virginia are going to put new restricting on their zoning administrators.

    The supreme court had it right to start with – this is an issue to be decided by elected officials – not appointed ones.

  58. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The question is whether you can take the word of government officials or not.

    I know of a couple that bought a piece of property that had originally been one (large) lot, but it had been divided in half by a roadway.

    Before purchasing the property the couple inquired of the county as to whether it could be divided into two lots, one on either side of the highway. Zoning wise there was apparently no reason this could not be done, and they got a letter from the county to that effect.

    I do not know who signed the letter, but later it was repudiated by the county and the couple was now stuck with a property they could barely afford.

    I agree that in the case before the court, it was probably a good thing the "school" did not go forward.

    The legislature has decided that the courts decison, although correct in this case, shoule not be allowed to apply generally.

    Therefore, this bill has already been passed and probably will be signed.

    As you point out, the practical significance of this bill will be small – they just won't write letters, or issue opinions as to what may or may not be done.

    What it does do is issue a clear directive to the government: if you make a promise (an implied contract), or if someone gets a vested interest in property, you cannot arbitrarily take it away without compensation.

    RH

    RH

  59. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    "……….. if you make a promise (an implied contract).."

    who is "you"?

    is "you" a paid staff person who could be gone next year and working in another county or working for the developer he gave a "by-right" zoning to?

    there are some technical things that should be delegated to a zoning administrator but that guy should never be an alternative way to achieve a zoning determination.

    the other thing that this case did – was to encourage counties to go even further in removing by-right uses because as they found out even something innocuous sounding like a school can be something different than you'd envision.

    better safe than sorry.

    make everyone come forward and disclose their intended use and get a special use permit – that goes with the owner – not the land.

    we also just had a situation that I'm sure you will appreciate.

    A landowner happened to be in close proximity to an airport that established an overlay zone that prevented certain activities on and inside the overlay.

    Then they decided that some of the land would have to have the trees cut in order for them to qualify for an instrument landing certificate.

    then.. it was found out that the landowner had the land in tax use and if the trees came down, he would lose the land-use designation and because of that his taxes would skyrocket.

    read all about it here:

    http://fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2010/032010/03102010/533293

    now the good news here is that her attorney – Mr. Lemming is considered one of the best land-use attorney's in the state.

    someone is going to get a new one ripped.. I hope.

  60. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    You being anyone, including the government. You can be held to a verbal contract. there is no reason the government should not be held to the same standards as an individual or a corporation when it comes to keeping its obligations.

    —————-

    As for the zoning administrator, you wouldn't want your legal adminsitrator (policeman) to be held to the same kind of standard: he wouldn't be able to do his job without consulting an elected official?

    At some point, you have to trust your experts, otherwise you will always have amateurs on the job. Deming would have a fit at your opinion on how to make things better.

    Here is what happens when you do not have protection of property:

    "Johannesburg – The department of rural development and land reform has kept farmers completely in the dark about plans to declare all productive agricultural land a national asset, an industry body has said.

    Agri SA will meet the department about the issue on Monday, even though the plan has already been submitted to the departmental portfolio committee.

    In its strategic plan for up to 2013 the department said it is considering the possibility of declaring all productive agricultural land a national asset.

    Current owners will then receive rights to use the land on either a temporary or permanent basis."

    That's big of the government. The owners already have rights to use the land.

    it isn;t about what they are getting, it is about what theya re losing.

    RH

  61. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    a policeman does not decide what is legal or not.

    He can't charge you because he thinks you're guilty or not charge you because he doesn't believe you are guilty.

    All he can do is make the charge and pass it to the judicial system

    we already know that letting cops decide how much physical force is needed – is problematical depending on the cop so we have specific rules for them to follow – and even then they get caught breaking them.

    A zoning administrator does not interpret law nor does he set policy – he, in fact, is supposed to conduct his work according to the law and within the policy that governs his job.

    what happened in this case was a simple matter of "fool me once shame on you…" and forewarned is forearmed.

    There are memos sitting on zoning administrators desk as we speak that say "thou shall not ..or we'll fire your butt".

  62. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    a policeman does not decide what is legal or not.

    Neither does the zoning adminsitrator. They both work to written guidelines.

    The difference is that policemen do not arrest you for a law that hasn't been written yet, and when you ar arrested you get due process.

    RH

  63. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " They both work to written guidelines"

    which were not present with the zoning administrator before the court case/legislation but now will be present for every zoning administrator.

    The only thing proved here is the terminal stupidness of the property rights folks like Toalson.

    What did he accomplish?

  64. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What did he accomplish?

    ===============================

    He established one new boundary on vested property rights.

    The better our rights are defined, the better they are defended, and the more of them there are, the more freedom we have.

    The smaller and more discrete the game pieces are, the harder it is to game the system.

    On the other hand it also means you have more opportunities when your turn comes, (and so do your opponents).

    If they wind up with more chips than you at the end of the game, you cannot blame them, and you have neither the reason nor the ability to steal from them. each piece is individually protected, and equally protected.

    —————————–

    You are correct, no zoning adminsitrator will ever tell someone they can do something they cannot, nor will they very likely tell someone thay cannot when they might.

    You can now use an unpaid drone for a zoning administrator because you have taken all judgement out of their job.

    So you kick those decisions upstairs. But the big picture is this, if you ever do tell someone they can do something, don't plan on changing your mind later.

    As it happens, my wife has three letters from three successive zoning administrators, under three different administrations which describe what she could (have) theoretically done with her property.

    When the time came that she needed to do something the (new) adminsitration found a technicality to prevent it. That caused her considerable financial hardship, which got transferred to me.

    Now, I would submit that if three different, successive administrators interpreted the rules the same way, then that might be a reasonable interpretation, one you could make plans on, "bank on" as they say.

    Turns out that wasn't the case: you piggy bank is not yours. But under the new law it would be again.

    Times are different now (for now). But back when those opinions were issued they probaly would have been supported by the board.

    Under the new law, whether issued by the adminsitrator or the board, the opinions in those letters would effectively become my wife's property, not subject to recall without compensation.

    As you point out, the board wll be a lot more careful where they are going. They may still be able to run over someone, but at least they won't be able to back up to do it.

    RH

  65. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    which were not present with the zoning administrator before the court case/legislation but now will be present for every zoning administrator.

    ===============================

    What are you complaining about?

    Aren't you the one that says rules can change at any time?

    You just don;t like it when the rules go against you, and your beliefs.

    Now, wouldn't you be a lot happeier and less upset if some kind of compensation was required for changing a rule after the fact if it has a material effect?

    RH

  66. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Housing sales are up, median sale price is up.

    Month over month, for several months now.

    Yep, a lot of the sales are foreclosures, but there is no crisis for the buyers.

    Yet.

    RH

  67. Mimi Stratton Avatar
    Mimi Stratton

    "The Clown Show in Richmond" is pretty close, tho. I cannot believe they only meet 2 months out of the year–they really don't break much of a sweat, do they?

  68. Mimi Stratton Avatar
    Mimi Stratton

    We have a new county manager in Arlington, Michael Brown, who is currently city manager of Savannah, Georgia:
    http://tinyurl.com/yb7brwe

    He was able to sustain a 27% property tax rate reduction over 10years, and he and his wife are natives of Prince William County.

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