Would Someone Please Explain the “Science”?

COVID positivity rates for students (left) and employees (right). Source: UVa COVID Tracker.

by James A. Bacon

Let me get this straight. The University of Virginia has just announced that all students returning to the university starting July 1 must be fully vaccinated, or they will be barred from entering the grounds. But employees, while urged to get vaccinated, are under no such mandate.

Exemptions will be allowed for individuals on medical or religions grounds, but those without vaccinations will be required to be tested multiple times per week.

“This approach will enable our students to return to a residential academic setting where they can live, study, and gather together safely,” reads an email signed by President Jim Ryan, Provost Liz Magill, and other senior administrators, according to UVA Today.

UVA Today, the mouthpiece for the Ryan administration, gave no explanation of why students, who are younger and more resistant to the virus, are required to be vaccinated, while employees, who are older and more vulnerable, are not.

COVID spread in Virginia is rapidly declining. At the University of Virginia itself, there were zero cases reported for students last week, and only one per week for the previous three weeks, according to the university’s COVID Tracker. (See the graphs above.)

It is true that the 20- to 29-year-old age bracket, which overlaps with the student population, has experienced a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases reported across Virginia.

Source: Virginia Department of Health

Young people, believing themselves (correctly) to be at lower risk for adverse medical consequences, have been more cavalier about protecting themselves and, as a result, have been more likely to get the coronavirus. On the other hand, their hospitalization rate is far lower than for older age brackets. Out of the total 29,400 hospitalizations in Virginia, fewer than 1,600 have been for Virginians under the age of 30.

Source: Virginia Department of Health

And the number of deaths for Virginians under 30 barely registers — 27 of the state’s 11,074 total.

Source: Virginia Department of Health

Clearly, college students are at extremely low risk of hospitalization and death compared to older faculty and staff. Perhaps there are good reasons to mandate student vaccinations based on the ever-shifting “science,” Centers for Disease Control guidance, and executive orders handed down by Governor Ralph Northam, but those reasons are not readily apparent from data available to the public.

The Ryan letter said that the university would “monitor” employee vaccination rates and “consult” with public health experts about whether it would require vaccines for all employees. But no criteria for requiring a mandate were given.

Bacon’s bottom line: Could the decision have had nothing to do with science at all? Could it have been driven by internal university politics? I am speculating here. but consider…

With the return to full in-person learning and living for students, notes the UVA Today article, many UVA employees also will need to work in-person. “Many who directly support our missions of teaching, research, service, and patient care will need to be physically present,” wrote Ryan, Magill, et al.

The inescapable implication is that many employees and/or faculty will not return to work on the grounds.

This sounds like something that only the teacher’s union could think up. COVID spread in the community is rapidly declining. COVID cases at UVa have dropped to zero. A significant share of the population has been double-vaccinated, and hundreds of thousands more Virginians likely have recovered from the virus and acquired temporary immunity. Virginia is approaching herd immunity. And anyone who wants to get vaccinated can easily do so. There is virtually zero risk for employees to return to work.

But, it seems that many UVa employees like working at home. Ryan & Co. didn’t come out and say so, but how else do we understand statements like this in the UVA Today article:

Leaders acknowledged that the past year of remote work has offered some lessons in flexible working arrangements. … “We do want to acknowledge that our adaption to new ways of working during the pandemic has taught us valuable lessons about how to creatively approach our work in the future.”

Look, I’m not an anti-masker or an anti-vaxxer. I’m double vaccinated and still wear a mask in places of commerce just so other people don’t wig out. But I’d still like to see the “science” or the data behind the seemingly illogical double standard for students and employees. Until I do, I’m operating on the assumption that Ryan buckled to pressure from the university’s internal constituencies.

Update: Similar moves are afoot at James Madison University and the College of William & Mary. The JMU Faculty Senate passed a resolution calling for a student vaccination requirement, says WSVA. Also the JMU board’s executive committee has given president Jonathan Alger the authority to require students and faculty to be tested and vaccinated. No justification for the mandate given.

W&M has announced it will require all students, faculty and staff to receive the vaccinations, reports the Virginia Gazette. “Given the public health context that we anticipate for fall 2021, and given what we currently know about the science of COVID-19, our success next year depends on widespread vaccination,” said President Katharine Rowe. No details of what, exactly, the science says. Give W&M credit for one thing: At least it’s applying the mandate to everyone.

Update: It occurs to me that the UVa policy may stem from orders from the Governor’s Office, in which Chief of Staff Clark Mercer addressed all employees of the Commonwealth, saying, “Employees who have not been vaccinated need to wear a face covering and also make arrangements to get a vaccination. … Although employers are allowed to ask employees if they are vaccinated, we would rather not have to mandate such a practice in our state agencies.”

First question: What’s the science?

Second question: Does it make any sense for the Governor’s Office to issue a once-size-fits-all mask and vaccination policy for all state agencies and public universities?


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38 responses to “Would Someone Please Explain the “Science”?”

  1. Paul Sweet Avatar
    Paul Sweet

    My guess is that it’s easier to fire an unvaccinated worker who refuses to wear a mask than expel an unvaccinated student who refuses to wear a mask.

    On a related issue, employers still have to make sure their employees follow the Dept. of Labor & Industry (DOLI) regulations, which are at least as strict as the lockdowns. DOLI doesn’t have to review them until mid-July.

    https://www.thecentersquare.com/virginia/virginia-businesses-uncertain-as-northam-restriction-changes-may-conflict-with-doli-regs/article_16555f5c-b757-11eb-b9ef-67a564df26ce.html

  2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    Wow! Speculate much, JAB?! I think you will just as likely find your answers (if it is answers you truly seek) through consultation with an employment/HR attorney.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      “W&M has announced it will require all students, faculty and staff to receive the vaccinations, reports the Virginia Gazette.”

      How did W&M manage to bypass the issues requiring an employment/HR attorney.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Smarter faculty?

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Attorney opinions are like excuses which are like… well, you know the rest, I’m sure…

  3. Leslie Mason Avatar
    Leslie Mason

    I am curious about the fact that double-vaccinated people can (and do) still test positive for the virus while presenting with no (or mild) symptoms. Has anyone learned if those vaccinated and positive individuals can pass (read infect) those UNvaccinated people? So, if (mandated) vaccinated yet COVID positive students are on campus, isn’t that a huge risk factor to those unvaccinated faculty and staff? Just asking for a friend…..

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      “test positive for the virus while presenting with no symptoms.”

      The test is way more sensitive than the body. It’s the same for testing positive and being contagious. The test can detect way less viral load than is necessary to transmit the disease to another.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        What many want is absolutes and conclusions and they are frustrated when the reality is not so neat and tidy and so they blame “science” for providing conflicting assessments and such.

        Truth is, as you point out, that folks who have gotten both shots are still testing “positive” and that’s not at all what some folks want to hear.

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        What many want is absolutes and conclusions and they are frustrated when the reality is not so neat and tidy and so they blame “science” for providing conflicting assessments and such.

        Truth is, as you point out, that folks who have gotten both shots are still testing “positive” and that’s not at all what some folks want to hear.

    2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      Indications are especially Pfizer and Moderna are extremely effective, for some unknown number of months, greater the 6 months.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        so here is the issue:

        ” THURSDAY, March 4, 2021 (HealthDay News) — There’s new evidence that fast-spreading variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 are more resistant to antibody treatments and vaccines.

        Researchers assessed variants first identified in South Africa, the United Kingdom and Brazil and found that they can evade antibodies that work well against the original version of the coronavirus that triggered the pandemic.

        This means that the new variants — which are expected to become dominant — could reduce the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody-based drugs used to prevent or treat COVID-19, according to investigators from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.”

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        so here is the issue:

        ” THURSDAY, March 4, 2021 (HealthDay News) — There’s new evidence that fast-spreading variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 are more resistant to antibody treatments and vaccines.

        Researchers assessed variants first identified in South Africa, the United Kingdom and Brazil and found that they can evade antibodies that work well against the original version of the coronavirus that triggered the pandemic.

        This means that the new variants — which are expected to become dominant — could reduce the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody-based drugs used to prevent or treat COVID-19, according to investigators from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.”

        1. dick dyas Avatar
          dick dyas

          So, is the sky falling, Larry?

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Nope and never was but that does not mean you need to be just stupid either.

            The science is what should guide us but it’s clearly misunderstood because it does not provide never-changing black and white answers to those who do not understand it.

            The world is NOT back to “normal”. India is not back to normal. Cruise ships are not back to normal Air travel is not back to normal. The Olympics is not back to normal. Pro sports is not back to normal but you’d never know this listening to the ignorati.

    3. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Well what would be LESS risk? No in-person?

      Part of the overall issue is that “science” still does not really know with certainty how the virus morphs and develops variants that are more resistant and the risk is that’unvaccinated are most at risk for developing variants. This concern is what is driving the push to get more people including the young vaccinated.

      People who think the science is fixed and so can make decisions based on “the science” are not really understanding the “science” – the “science” is worried about the variants that are developing and variants that could develop resistance to the vaccines.

      That’s why colleges (and science) want folks vaccinated.

      Yes, there is still risk but given the politics of the “anti” folks right now, what would we do? Just close the colleges because of the “risk”? I don’t think that will fly , Hells bells, just requiring vaccinations is getting pushback from the “anti” folks.

  4. Matt Adams Avatar
    Matt Adams

    Should you take the vaccine, yes. Should you be required to take the vaccine, no.

    There will be a larger issue out of this, is how can you require someone to be vaccinated with a vaccine under EUA. Until these vaccines acquire full authorization there really isn’t much ground to stand on for the Universities and Colleges.

    At least W&M went as far as to require it across the board, the exemption of faculty while requiring the students just seems like a practice in a discrimination suit.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      “Should you take the vaccine, yes. Should you be required to take the vaccine, no.”

      Fair points. What needs to be added … “Should your employer be able to make taking the vaccine a requirement of employment?”

      Employers can require a lot of invasive actions on the part of employees – from random drug testing to signing onerous non-competes. Once the vaccines are FDA approved it’s hard for me to imagine that, in the right circumstances, an employer couldn’t make the vaccine a condition of employment.

      1. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        I would surmise that they can tell you what you can’t out into your body via federal laws. I don’t think they would find precedent in forcing their employee to take a specific medicine.

        There isn’t much case law regarding private entities requiring vaccines. If they are do hoe that road, they have to navigate all sorts of 1st amendment protections on religious exemptions. Couple that with a host of ADA items, but who knows.

        I only based my statement upon it being an EUA at current.

  5. Matt Adams Avatar
    Matt Adams

    Should you take the vaccine, yes. Should you be required to take the vaccine, no.

    There will be a larger issue out of this, is how can you require someone to be vaccinated with a vaccine under EUA. Until these vaccines acquire full authorization there really isn’t much ground to stand on for the Universities and Colleges.

    At least W&M went as far as to require it across the board, the exemption of faculty while requiring the students just seems like a practice in a discrimination suit.

  6. Robert Taylor Avatar
    Robert Taylor

    As both the father of a current UVA student as well as a graduate of the University, I was deeply troubled to read yesterday about the university’s decision regarding covid-19 vaccines. While the vaccines have certainly played a very important role in ending the covid-19 crisis, mandating the administration of those vaccines for college students (and, indeed, for anyone) is completely inappropriate and, perhaps, illegal under the present circumstances.

    As we are all well aware, the covid-19 vaccines have still not received final FDA approval. Those vaccines are only available for administration to the general public due to FDA’s issuance of an “emergency use authorization”, or EUA. The FDA’s own guidance regarding the administration of vaccines under such a paradigm explicitly states that individuals must be given the choice to decline to receive such vaccines. There are numerous reasons for this, not the least of which is that the vaccines, while unquestionably effective against the covid-19 virus, still lack mid to long-term safety data and have not undergone the typical phase-3 clinical trials. As such, the FDA recognizes that there are risks attendant in taking the vaccine and so recognizes the importance of retaining individual choice in deciding whether or not to receive it.

    Further, as Mr. Bacon notes above, there is little to no risk to their College Students’ health from contracting the disease. My own son contracted it early this semester and would not have been able to distinguish it from allergies had he not drawn a positive test. Based upon our experiences with our son’s friends and other family friends with children of that age, his experience is typical. A substantial percentage of UVa students, as with college students at most universities, have, as a result, in all likelihood already been exposed to the pathogen. For these reasons, vaccination for this demographic would in any event be largely superfluous, but given the still experimental status of the vaccines becomes unconscionable.

    Finally the fact that faculty and staff… the demographic at the University who are substantially more at-risk than the student population… are not required to take the vaccine, demonstrates the arbitrary nature of the university’s decision as well as the lack of scientific and medical rationale underlying that decision.

    As an attorney who labors in the federal government sector, I have been privy to discussions regarding federal government agencies’ and contractors’ authority to require such vaccinations and, so far, informal opinion leans heavily in the direction that such agencies do not have the authority at this time to require the administration of vaccines under an EUA. Once formal FDA approval is granted, that opinion is likely to change… but we are not there, yet. Further, opinion has been even more overwhelming that requiring such vaccines at the present time raises grave liability concerns for any entity that does require them and then has a recipient suffer adverse consequences. For my part, I will let you know that I would absolutely not hesitate to bring legal action against the University if something like that were to happen to my son as the result of a mandated vaccine, and I am currently exploring my legal options regarding fighting this mandate in order to spare my son, and others, the requirement.

    I cannot imagine that I am the only parent and alumnus with these concerns.

  7. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    One worked like hell to get there, and the other is working like hell to get out.

  8. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    so.. not just UVA… but a bunch:

    ” More than 100 US colleges and universities are now requiring students to get Covid-19 vaccinations”

    so some sort of liberal conspiracy… for sure…

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      “First we take Manhattan…”

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        $25 in beads and you can buy it.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          The number was supposedly $24 not $25. Had that $24 been invested at 5% annual interest (compounded annually) it would be worth $5,623,210,928.41 today.

          Manhattan, with no significant structures, was purchased for $5.6B.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            That food and water you will eat and drink will be worth $1000 more in the next years. You should hoard it and not consume it.

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          How much for Berlin…?

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            You can have it. For some reason ya just can’t find a good bagel anywhere in the city.

  9. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    The bigger picture is the need to vaccinate as many folks as possible, and some employers and colleges are in a position to mandate the shots. This helps the overall national effort to stamp out the virus. I wonder what some of the big companies are doing re: shot mandates? Also students are involved in more risky behavior such as wind music, shouting a lot eg; UVa vs. Va Tech football games etc

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      They aren’t in an position to mandate anything, as it stands the vaccine is EUA. Until it’s received full FDA approval you’re not going to be legally able to mandate it.

      1. dick dyas Avatar
        dick dyas

        FDA just announced approval for Pfizer should be this month. Then, the slackers will have no excuse.

        1. Matt Adams Avatar
          Matt Adams

          They did not and it will not. They started the paperwork on May 7th, it’s a process that’s takes months to years to occur.

    2. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      They aren’t in an position to mandate anything, as it stands the vaccine is EUA. Until it’s received full FDA approval you’re not going to be legally able to mandate it.

  10. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Northam, the great and powerful, can compel students to get vaccinated as a requirement for admission but not require state employees in a congregate setting (like a university) to get vaccinated? Is the same true for state run health care facilities? The state can’t require that emergency room nurses get vaccinated in order to hold jobs as nurses at UVa’s Hspital, foSounds r example?

    Sounds more like UVa is trying to play to its political base rather than follow any actual labor law.

  11. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    “Leaders acknowledged that the past year of remote work has offered some lessons in flexible working arrangements. … “We do want to acknowledge that our adaption to new ways of working during the pandemic has taught us valuable lessons about how to creatively approach our work in the future.”

    Wow! Could have come straight from Helen Dragas…

    As for “the science”… studies, not stories…
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e1.htm
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7012e2.htm#T2_down

    “Second question: Does it make any sense for the Governor’s Office to issue a once-size-fits-all mask and vaccination policy for all state agencies and public universities?”

    Yes, it would. Of course, it would have made sense for the Fed to have done similar in Feb 2020, too, but half of the country prefers that such decisions be localized and accept the squirrelly results as a consequence.

  12. WhatMeWorryVA Avatar
    WhatMeWorryVA

    It is easy….most of those older workers at UVA are likely white male and tenured.

    Much easier to replace with new PC workers if the old white dudes die off…

    I am kidding but I wouldn’t put it past them to think like this.

  13. William Cover Avatar
    William Cover

    No vaccines has been licensed based on safety and efficacy. The vaccines are approved for emergency use only in the USA. Once a COVID vaccine is fully approved there should be no mandates. Once approved , manage it similar to the flu vaccine and in the future for RSV if a vaccine is ever developed. We still do not know if a young person is better off being exposed to the virus and building immunity to the actual pathogen versus a vaccine. We all are getting Shingles vaccines at an old age because we loose immunity to the dormant virus in our bodies according to modern theory. No one considers whether or not shingles is caused by re-exposure to the culprit, the same virus that causes chickenpox, which is accepted as highly contagious. Our public health policies are based on providing information to cause people to change behavior, not based upon facts. That’s why things are exaggerated , facts change and confusing to the average layman. I have been vaccinated.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: ” Our public health policies are based on providing information to cause people to change behavior, not based upon facts. That’s why things are exaggerated , facts change and confusing to the average layman.”

      Could you expand on this a bit?

      Why would they want people to change behaviors NOT based on facts?

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