Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

WORTH NOTING AGAIN

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

It is worth noting on the first Friday in October when:

The front page of WaPo’s Business Section has stories on persistent economic worries (employment, factory orders), risky trading practices, Pearlstein’s column is titled “Greed is Fine. It’s Stupidity That Hurts” and the big story is “Pinched and Watching Pennies: Long a Bulwark of the Economy, Consumer Spending Stalls” that:

The only systematic, overarching strategy to achieve to sustainable economic prosperity – as well as social stability and physical (ecological) sustainability – is to evolve functional human settlement patterns.

Dysfunctional human settlement patterns are the driver of the Mobility and Access Crisis. The Chevron ad on page A-5 of WaPo says: “I will leave the car home more.” How can the smiling model do that when Large, Private Vehicles are the only way to get to Jobs / Services / Recreation / Amenity?

Dysfunctional human settlement patterns are the driver of the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis. The right size house in the right location would allow citizens to work for Regionally competitive wages, achieve competitive levels of productivity and enjoy a quality life.

Dysfunctional human settlement patterns ARE the Helter Skelter crisis in the Countryside. They have driven up the speculative price (not value) of land for urban land uses to the point that those who want to farm cannot afford to do it. That is especially true in the R=20 to R=100 Radius Band where fresh, secure food could be produced for the urban population.

A sustainable Countryside outside the Clear Edge provides the air, water, food, fiber and biological diversity necessary to support urban life and an urban civilization. An attractive Countryside also provides Recreation / Ameinty that supports those who choose to live in the Countryside and pay all their location-variable costs.

AOL, shooting themselves in the foot with advertisers by the way, today profiles 43 Top Ways to Waste money. The list includes a lot of good ideas – do not buy new cars, do not buy big houses, do not spend money creating mown grass pollution (aka, lawns), do not buy things you do not need, do not fight wars on false pretenses, etc.

Taken together all 43 are the “good” ideas – if they had been implemented in 1973. However, Business-As-Usual has resulted in a nation-state economy dependent on wasting natural capital, importing energy and cheap labor and begging for loans from foreign investors.

In 2008 the 43 good ideas – and all the Green Greed one can pile on the roof – will make some feel better. These ideas may keep a few from falling over the edge but the overall trajectory is still down.

EMR

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20 responses to “WORTH NOTING AGAIN”

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    EMR – Take a look at the state of Iowa and its demographics. No huge metro area; multiple mid-to-small size metro areas. Lots of small towns surrounded by farms.

    Is Iowa’s macro settlement pattern functional? Yes or no?

    Please don’t address settlement patterns within a metro area. Just tell me whether you think that Iowa looks more like you think the rest of the US should look.

    If I’ve totally missed the boat, please explain why.

    TMT

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “That is especially true in the R=20 to R=100 Radius Band where fresh, secure food could be produced for the urban population. “

    Nonsense. This is typical of the agricultural ignorance that I frequently encounter.

    There is enough land in that band to crash the market for foodstuffs below sustainable prices. We need nowhere near that much land for agricultural purposes, and it cannot compete with more productive land elsewhere. Neither does it produce much in the off season. Even at today’s fuel prices you can ship watermelons from Georgia cheaper than you can grow them in Fauquier. If you look at some Georgia farmsteads you will see why.

    A recent meeting between agricultural producers and buyers in Fauquier county recently brought these sobering facts home to those who hope to promote a “Grown in Fauquier” brand.

    The problem isn’t that you cannot grow things, it is that for the most part you cannot grow things profitably. Even if the land is “free”.

    There are niche markets, and there are people who have other incomes to rely on. But suggesting that this is a sustainable enterprise for all the folks that live there is simply ludicrous.

    On average, every farm in a five county area loses around $2000 a year. The handfull that make good profits do so on account of farm subsidies.

    A sustainable Countryside outside the Clear Edge that provides the air, water, food, fiber and biological diversity necessary to support urban life and an urban civilization is going to have to be paid a fair price for what they provide.

    At present that isn’t happening. As a result it is those INSIDE the clear edge that are not paying their full locational costs. They are not supporting the environmental footprint that it takes to sustain them, and they are not supporting those that manage the resources.

    I’ll give you this much: sustainability does require a nexus between the environment, economics and social welfare. Among other things, that means that those who maintain the countryside (whether through fiat or desire) will have to get paid a fair price for (all) the work they do, not just the work that has some miserable kind of market price.

    RH

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Even Iowa has a vigorous state program to diversify out of agriculture. meanwhile it is thriving on ethanol subsidies. Look at a map of ethanol plants, and guess why I don’t grow corn.

    Fauquier once had an early adopter ethanol entrepreneur, but he went down due to economics and zoning.

    RH

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “[Dysfuntional Settlement Patterns]… have driven up the speculative price (not value) of land for urban land uses to the point that those who want to farm cannot afford to do it.”

    Atrocious zoning has made huge estates cheap by comparison to their true value. There is nothing about the social support (zoning) or economic support (agriculture) that is promotng a sustainable settlement pattern inthese areas. Zoning rules have greatly increased the speculative (and real) value of some land while it has greatly decreased the value of other land, which can no ONLY be owned by the very wealthy few (at the top of the ziggurat, as EMR would say).

    (There is no THEY in disfunctional settlement patterns. Who is this THEY that are buying and selling things speculatively?)

    RH

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There are about 42000 farms in Virginia. About 4100 have sales of over $100,000. Farm profits are generally less than 5%.

    You figure out how many people can make a living at that rate.

    RH

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “The 16,139 Virginia farms
    with sales over $10,000 averaged approximately $111,400 in production expenses and $139,800
    in sales, leaving $28,400 per farm for depreciation expense, taxes, new investment, and profit for
    the farm family.”

    Never mind their capital expenses.

    RH

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Cash recepts in Fauquier average $190 per acre, and $33,000 per farm. But if you take out the ten largest and most profitable, (those with the most subsidies), then the answer is more like $25 per acre and $10,000 per farm.

    And that is gross reciepts.

    RH

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “The Halifax County Board of Supervisors is embroiled in a fight with local contract hog farmers — those who have exclusive agreements with producers — who have requested permits to increase the number of hogs on their farms, in some cases to more than 10,000 animals. When the board denied the requests, the farmers filed lawsuits that claim, among other charges, that the county is violating the state’s Right to Farm Act.”

    Nowadays it takes around 10,000 hogs to earn $75,000 a year.

    RH

  9. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “
    Most farms aren’t preservation projects, they’re businesses. Wayne D. Purcell says Virginia will dedicate a declining number of acres to farming in the future, not for lack of land, but for lack of economically competitive products.

    Purcell, an agricultural economist, coordinates the state’s Rural Economic Analysis Program at Virginia Tech. “We’re not anywhere close to a critical zone that as a society we have to think about what we’re doing every time we take an acre away from a farm,” Purcell says. But in order to maintain farmland and open space in our state, he says, we’ll have to subsidize smaller, family farms.

    ……

    Purcell says the state should expect a “farm crisis” in the next two years: Farms will be forced into bankruptcy and foreclosure for a number of reasons, he claims.

    …….

    Crisis or no crisis, the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services predicts 70 percent of the state’s farmland will change hands in the next 15 years because the average age of farmers is 56.4 years. As young people shy away from farming, a significant number of retired farmers will be forced to sell their land for nonagricultural uses.

    Suburban sprawl also encourages farmers to sell by increasing the value of their land. Purcell says farmers from Northern Virginia asked Virginia Tech experts what they could grow to keep their farms profitable. When the researchers found out the land was valued at $10,000 to $12,000 an acre for development, Purcell said the answer was simple: “There is nothing you can grow.” “

    http://www.virginiabusiness.com/edit/magazine/yr1999/oct99/farmland.html

    So, since there is nothing you can grow on land that is that valuable, what we will do is take all the value out of the land, by zoning it agriculture only.

    That’ll help the farmers.

    Or,you can take the EMR approach to taking the value out of the land: use the “10X rule” to tax it to death. Claim those people out there are not paying their full costs.

    Ironically, the reason we want to take all the value out of the land is because we “value it” so much for (allegedly) farming, and (actually) open space, environmental benefits, watershed protection, carbon sequestration, and increasing the value of our own developed property.

    So, we want to take millions of dollars of value out of the farm land so that we can “afford” to farm it. (Ignoring the costs of production and the 10,000 hogs problem all the while.)

    When in fact the benefits from farming are far less than all those other (actual) benefits that we want to get without paying for.

    What part of stealing is it that you don’t understand?

    RH

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    In 2005 the MWCOG held a Roundtable Discussion – “How Do We Better Support and Ensure the Future of Agriculture in the WMA?”

    Not a single farmer was in the discussion.

    RH

  11. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    TMT said:

    “EMR – Take a look at the state of Iowa and its demographics. No huge metro area; multiple mid-to-small size metro areas. Lots of small towns surrounded by farms.

    “Is Iowa’s macro settlement pattern functional? Yes or no?”

    Good question.

    Short answer is “it does not matter.” Longer answer below.

    85 percent of the population lives in 68 New Urban Regions (NURs) and most of those are in 10 aggomerations of coterminous NURs we have recently started calling MegaRegions. (Details in definition being added to GLOSSARY.)

    What happens in the NURs where the vast majority of the citizes live will determine the economic, social and physical trajectory of the US of A.

    There are two NURs that directly impact the current state of Iowa.

    Omaha / Council Bluffs NUR includes part of Iowa. the outer edge of Twin Cities NUR may include part of Iowa. Chicago, St. Lewis and Kansas City NURs have less impact.

    I have not been in Iowa for some time but I have taken a close look at the area to the south of Iowa — the I-70 Corridor from St. Lewis to Kansas City in Missouri . (See “A View from the Heartland” 3 October 2008.)

    Most of that column is actually about the Gulf Coast but you will find some of the answers to your questions there.

    Expensive energy is going to hurt this Heartland — Iowa and Central Missouri.

    I suspect the longer term future will depending on if what is now “Iowa” becomes part of the five NURs around it or, with central Missouri becomes a functional Urban Support Region.

    “Please don’t address settlement patterns within a metro area.”

    If you mean within the Clear Edge around the Core of a New Urban Region, I think I did that.

    “Just tell me whether you think that Iowa looks more like you think the rest of the US should look.”

    Those places with great soil and enough rain are what we call Bread Basket Lands in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND (PART FOUR OF TRILO-G) and the most important thing in these area is to minimize the physical footprint of the urban areas that are needed to support functional use of that resource. My impression is that Iowa has not been overrun with 10, 20 and 30 acre urban lots.

    “Iowa looks more like you think the rest of the US should look?” Not really. I suspect Iowa looks less dysfunctional than DelMarVa and better able to play a role as a Bread Basket.

    “If I’ve totally missed the boat, please explain why.”

    You asked questions, and I tried to answer. I saw no boats going past.

    EMR

  12. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    EMR – you need to see IOWA .. if not in person then through census facts and/or wikipedia.

    take for instance the town of Waterloo – 65,000 people in the town proper and 160,000 metro and a density of 1000 folks per square mile.

    It’s one of a dozen or more towns/cities… what appear to be stereotypical balanced communities – each with all the things that such locations have including regional malls, colleges, hospitals, etc…and yes.. horrors.. WalMarts..and McD’s and yes.. GASP .. single family homes in subdivisions.

    just curious – what makes Waterloo, Iowa something other than the same thing Reston is?

  13. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry said:

    “EMR – you need to see IOWA .. if not in person then through census facts and/or wikipedia.”

    So far as I recall, I have not been to Waterloo but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express recently and I did click on the map / airphoto on the Wikipedia page.

    “take for instance the town of Waterloo – 65,000,…”

    Actually Waterloo is a city. Big difference.

    “people in the town proper and 160,000 metro and a density of 1000 folks per square mile.”

    As you know from reading our work “density per square mile” for most purposes is a meaningless item of data due to the fact that it is based on the size of the included jurisdictions in the MSA and that has almost nothing to do with pattern and density.

    “It’s one of a dozen or more towns/cities… what appear to be stereotypical balanced communities -…”

    Did you mean in Iowa? If so, you are right except for the Capitalization of Balance and Community.

    As you know there are many Balanced Communities in the Countryside, especially in a Bread Basket area such as Iowa.

    “… each with all the things that such locations have including regional mall…”

    Bad use of the term “regional” it is really a Community-scale mall but developers like many others beleive they can call places what they want because it does not matter.

    “colleges, hospitals, etc…and yes.. horrors.. WalMarts..and McD’s and yes.. GASP .. single family homes in subdivisions.”

    But almost no orphan subdivisions as you can see from the airphoto on Wikipedia. Larry: Please, it is all about location and pattern and relationships and scale, it is not about a list of “things.”

    In fact the Core of Greater Waterloo — including Cedar Falls — has a wonderful Clear Edge.

    “just curious – what makes Waterloo, Iowa something other than the same thing Reston is?”

    Larry, it pains me to have to point this out to you after all the work of ours that you have read.

    The Beta Community of Greater Waterloo is 45 miles from Cedar Rapids and 190 miles from the Centroid of the nearest New Urban Region.

    The Beta Community of Reston is within the Core of “the Capital of the Free World” and between the Centroid of that Subregion and the best airport runways east of the Mississippi.

    If I need to explain further…

    EMR

  14. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Larry, There is nothing wrong with single-family subdivisions as long as the residents pay the full location-variable costs associated with their choice of where to live.

    The problem in our society is that people are blind to those costs and/or refuse to pay them.

  15. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    blind refusal to pay location costs

    is the 600 lb location cost gorilla is essentially that cost allocated to the distance between where one works and where one lives….

    it appears so to me…

    what would be helpful is an articulation of the various location cost categories and their relative weight to each other.

    From my prospective – it appears to me that commuting distance is 90%… and to be honest.. I have great difficulty with the remaining 10% as grid electricity would be virtually impossible to fairly allocate by location.

    But what this is about in the end is consumption of resources – or… to put another way – consumming more than one’s “rightful” share.

    I don’t think we make progress on understanding if we fail to articulate the specific location variable costs and their relative weight or some reasonable proxy such that one can get a feel for where they are on that location variable scale in terms of consumption.

    Let’s say for the sake of argument that some day – cars will be fueled by the sun – that the state of the art of solar panels reach the point where the skin on the car absorbs more than enough energy to power it.

    Let’s also say – for the sake of argument that the same technology results in most homes able to pretty much exist off the grid.

    At that point – would the dynamics for location variable costs be any different and if you’d agree they would be – then would that have any effect at all on what the ideal size settlement pattern might look like?

    My question is essentially this:

    Are optimized settlement patterns influenced by the amount of per-capita energy use?

    I already know EMR’s answer to this – about 30 paragraphs and 2000 words….

    do you have a shorter answer for ignorant louts?

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Jim – paying location costs. Assuming that location costs are those associated with building and operating necessary infrastructure, it is inconceivable that people who live in condos or apartments in Ballston or Crystal City, much less those who will live in Tysons Corner, pay anywhere near those costs.

    Much of the capital costs to build Metrorail was paid the federal government. Most of the costs to build Dulles Rail will be paid by Dulles Toll Road drivers.

    A significant share of Arlington and Fairfax's contributions to WMATA's operating costs come from the gasoline sales tax surcharge paid by drivers in the metro area.

    I'm not arguing that any of these subsidies — except for the DTR drivers funding Silver Line construction are necesarily wrong, but they are cross-subsidies.

    We are seeing attacks on a suburban lifestyle by: 1) landowners and developers who want to build urban centers in the midst of suburbia; 2) the looney left whose beliefs on environmental have become religion and who are seeking to impose them on the rest of society just as some on the crazy ultra-right are; 3) a bunch of rich folk who live by Ray & who want Fairfax County residents to absorb all the growth in order to preserve their rural lifestyles; and 4)crooked politicians who are — well crooked.

    TMT

  17. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Too Many Taxes and Larry Gross:

    TMT said:

    "Assuming that location costs are those associated with building and operating necessary infrastructure, …"

    Please stop "assuming" you know assume makes an …

    Just put your assumptions on hold, read the 10 X rule, understand it's relationship with the other four rules and then do the numbers.

    TMT also said:

    "We are seeing attacks on a suburban…"

    'Subruban' is defined as less than urban and 95 percent of the population is urban…

    "lifestyle by:"

    "1) landowners and developers who want to build urban centers in the midst of suburbia;"

    The reason they want to build it is that is where the market has moved. You know EMR agrees with you on the lack of quality of the plans

    "2) the looney left whose beliefs on environmental have become religion and who are seeking to impose them on the rest of society just as some on the crazy ultra-right are;"

    The important thing to rememeber is the if we just let the market work and leveled the playing field no one would have to force anyone to do anything.

    "3) a bunch of rich folk who live by Ray & who want Fairfax County residents to absorb all the growth in order to preserve their rural lifestyles;"

    There is no "rural" lifestyle and it is for sure that no 'rich' person would what to live that way if they could.

    As Jim says, there is nothing wrong with Single Household Dwelling Units nor with living on a 10, 50 or 500 acre hobby farm if they pay the full cost.

    "and 4)crooked politicians who are — well crooked."

    Nice line but I am not sure you can find many in the Commonwealth.

    Uninformed, yes, but for crooked you need to go to Prince Georges in MD.

    EMR

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “From my prospective – it appears to me that commuting distance is 90%… “

    How many times do I have to explain this? Commuting distance, may or may not mean squat. It does not matter how far you travel – if that travel is efficient: it buys you and the community more than it costs.

    Re- measuring by BTU. People who have done this calculate the actual BTU use and the embedded BTU use for various living conditions and locations. The biggest factor is how big is your home and how many people live in it. The second is what do you eat and where does it come from. Third is whether you live in a temperate climate.

    Personal travel is like number 5 on the list.

    RH

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    EMR’s definition of suburban is wrong, misleading, and unhelpful.

    RH

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “In 2000, 21 percent of the U.S. population was designated rural using the Census Bureau’s land-use definition (outside urban areas of 2,500 or more people), compared with 17 percent for economically based nonmetro areas (outside metro areas of 50,000 or more).

    However, alternative definitions increase that range from 7 to 49 percent. Raising the population size threshold for the land-use definition from 2,500 to 50,000 increases the rural population from 21 to 32 percent. Lowering the threshold for the economic definition from 50,000 to 10,000 decreases the rural population from 17 to 7 percent.”

    Evidently EMR is the only entity that claims 95% of the population is urban.

    RH

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