Will Northam’s Equity Initiatives Actually Advance Equity?

by James A. Bacon

A reader has forwarded to me an email exchange between herself and the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) regarding the implementation of Critical Race Theory (CRT) in Virginia schools,

My correspondent received a polite response from “Constituent Services” thanking her for her query. Without addressing CRT directly, the VDOE representative mentioned a number of Northam administration initiatives regarding the teaching of history and implementation of culturally relevant practices. Then she wrote the following, which describes the Northam approach to K-12 education more clearly and succinctly than I have seen anywhere.

Our goal is to maximize the potential of ALL learners by eliminating the predictability of student outcomes based on race, gender, zip code, ability, socioeconomic status, or languages spoken at home. This will be accomplished through continuous reflection, cultural responsiveness, courageous leadership, compassionate student and family engagement, and curriculum reframing.

The phrase “eliminating the predictability of student outcomes” is another way of saying “achieving equal outcomes.” The Northam team believes that overhauling the teaching of history, making curricula more culturally “responsive,” and “engaging” students and families (in a manner unspecified here, but likely lecturing them about white privilege and racism), will reduce the learning gap between whites and Asians on the one hand and blacks and Hispanics on the other.

The proof will be in the pudding. When Virginia resumes Standards of Learning (SOL) testing, we will be able to see if implementing Critical Race Theory-inspired changes to school culture and curriculum helps to close the racial/ethnic achievement gap. Analysis will be made more difficult by the statistical noise created by the watering down of SOL standards and by varying policies across the state regarding COVID-related school closings. But at some point in the distant future, we will get a clearer picture.

There is another way, though not as precise as we’d like, to gauge the impact sooner. That is to compare Virginia’s most “woke” school districts with its least “woke” school districts. The City of Richmond and Fairfax County were two of the Virginia school districts where the principles of wokeness already had made tremendous inroads the last year the SOLs were administered, the 2018-2019 school year. Washington County, in the far southwest, is located in the beating red heart of Trump country, embedded in one of the least woke cultural milieus found in Virginia. Unlike many other counties in Virginia’s western marches, Washington has enough black, Asian and Hispanic students to allow for SOL  comparisons.

Using data from the Virginia Department of Education Build-a-Table, I compared the percentage of disadvantaged students who passing English Reading SOLs at proficient (basic grade-level) and advanced levels. (Note: I am comparing disadvantaged students for each racial/ethnic group to eliminate the well-known influence of socioeconomic class on academic achievement.)

Woke vs. Non-woke

Every major racial/ethnic group in Washington County out-performed peer groups in Richmond and Fairfax as measured by the percentage that passed the English Reading SOL at a proficient level, and by even wider margins that passed at an advanced level.

Particularly impressive is the performance of disadvantaged black and Hispanic students in Washington County who performed at advanced levels. Nearly one in five disadvantaged black students scored “advanced” in Washington County compared to 4% in Richmond and 7% in Fairfax.

Bottom line: Despite being dominated by knuckle-dragging red state voters with all their retrograde attitudes about race (note to Southwest Virginians: I’m being facetious), Washington County did a superior job of “eliminating the predictability of student outcomes based on race, gender, zip code, ability, socioeconomic status.” Strangely, I see no evidence that the Northam administration is turning to Washington County for inspiration.

Obviously, this is a quick, superficial comparison. Perhaps Washington County schools are more woke than I give them credit for. Perhaps there are differences in the percentages of English Learner students in three localities, which would complicate comparisons of Asian and Hispanic students. Perhaps the geographic distribution of poverty within school districts is a factor.

Some readers will rightly observe that the economically disadvantaged black students in Washington County were not concentrated in pockets of poverty like they are in Richmond. But that fact supports my argument: It does not appear that being submerged in a sea of cultural whiteness harmed black and Hispanic students in any way.

It’s worth doing a more authoritative analysis than what I have done here. But this preliminary cut of the data provides no support for the proposition that making Virginia schools more woke will do anything to improve academic performance of minority students or reduce the black-white education gap. To the contrary, setting high standards and focusing on fundamentals is likely the policy best geared to helping minority students.

I will venture a prediction: Four years of inculcating wokeness in Virginia schools will do nothing to close the academic-achievement gap and may, in fact, make it worse. The more woke the school district, the more harmful the results will be.


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24 responses to “Will Northam’s Equity Initiatives Actually Advance Equity?”

  1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    Jim, the ultimate woke move by the Virginia Department of Education will be to eliminate the SOLs as soon as the federal Department of Education permits it. Under current federal law, no SOLs, no federal dollars. Not sure that law will survive the current Democratic ascendancy in Washington. No data, no problem.

  2. William O'Keefe Avatar
    William O’Keefe

    When the government, state or federal, decides that pursuing/producing equal outcomes is a major duty and worthwhile goal, our state/nation has embarked on a slippery slope. Equal outcomes is a utopian dream because we are not equal in terms of talent, parenting, hard wiring, or dedication.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      The pursuit of the converse is certainly true. We’ve tried it too. 250 years of pushing inequities has delivered us to this position.

      1. William O'Keefe Avatar
        William O’Keefe

        Our policy has been, for the most part and certainly over the last 50 years, to push equal opportunity. Inequities as a policy is a jaded view.

  3. I love that Kenita Bowers with “Constituent Services” NEVER once mentioned learning, reading, writing, nor even ”rithmatic”. But why concentrate on teaching skills that can be used throughout life in whatever endeavor one undertakes.

  4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    My first reaction was the same as Larry’s. But then I read the DOE statement more closely. I could heartily agree with the goal of “eliminating the predictability of student outcomes based on race, gender, zip code, ability, socioeconomic status, or languages spoken at home,” were it not for the word “ability” in the list. That seems silly. The SOL is supposed to test one’s ability to read. I am not sure how one could predict such a score based on “ability”.

    As far as the rest of the statement is concerned, I would hope that anyone would think it a worthy goal of eliminating the effect that race, gender, zip code, socioeconomic status, or language spoken at home would have on a child’s ability to learn to read.

    Regarding the real guts of your post, I agree that the Southwest seems to be doing something right in teaching kids to read. I have commented in the past about the disappointing reading scores in many parts of the state and the need to look at how reading is being taught. (Research shows that the old-fashioned phonics approach is best. Is that what Washington County does?) Then again, it may not be anything Washington County is doing. The better scores may be attributable to something you touched on: Black and Hispanic students being “submerged in a sea of cultural whiteness”. Some research has indicated that Black students do better when they are in classes with a lot of white students. That is what Kamras of Richmond was trying to achieve with his proposed redistricting plan, but the Richmond school board would not back him on it.

    A year or so ago, Supt. Layne indicated that the state would be looking at what the districts with good or improving reading scores were doing to see if any of experience or methods could be duplicated in the districts with poorer scores. That was before the pandemic. I doubt if anything such analysis has been done.

  5. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    re: ” I will venture a prediction: Four years of inculcating wokeness in Virginia schools will do nothing to close the academic-achievement gap and may, in fact, make it worse. The more woke the school district, the more harmful the results will be.”

    It’s a fair criticism that this initiative might be more “woke” than substance, we’ll see..

    But one thing has been made clear that had not been before and that is they are admitting there is a problem with equity and outcomes.

    No one is looking to have equal outcomes – that’s just partisan blather.

    but recognizing that there ARE unequal outcomes – seems to chum the partisan waters… one might thing there WOULD BE agreement on that reality rather than jumping to conclusions about how to deal with it or not.

  6. Publius Avatar

    This is gobbledy-gook double-speak that needs to be Fisked…and thoroughly!

    Our goal is to maximize the potential of ALL learners by eliminating the predictability of student outcomes based on race, gender, zip code, ability, socioeconomic status, or languages spoken at home. This will be accomplished through continuous reflection, cultural responsiveness, courageous leadership, compassionate student and family engagement, and curriculum reframing.

    Maximize the potential of all learners – isn’t that already supposed to be the goal? It wasn’t previously?

    Eliminating the predictability of student outcomes – how exactly will one do that? Will you handicap each test to get equal scores? Will you use race or zip code to establish that handicap? What about schools in rich districts? Will you give them worse teachers? How about differences in abilities between the sexes? Since males have a wider dispersion at the extremes than females, what will you do make it fair to pull down the male geniuses and promote the male dullards? Perhaps the single most stupidest (yes, it deserves it!) is eliminating predictability based on…ABILITY!

    Continuous reflection – helps teaching…how?
    Cultural responsiveness – helps teaching how? Responding to what? Your stupidity? My response would be pulling the kids out of that stupid school.
    Courageous leadership – am I being too rude to laugh? You really believe this? Falling in with the Marxists isn’t courageous leadership. And, if any teacher dared to show courageous leadership, the teachers union – oops – association – would blackball that teacher and the principal would demand the actual standards being applied be watered down.
    Compassionate student and family engagement – so if the student feels bad about being an idiot, will that be extra points? And will the smart kid need to feel guilty for stealing all the points? Can a non-compassionate student be engaged? Can family compassion be passed to the student? What if a non-compassionate student succeeds without family engagement? Detention? How do you punish such a reprobate?
    Curriculum reframing – so dumbing everything down? How do you re-frame math? Biology? Latin? Or will you drop the racist standards of English as some schools are doing? Maybe advanced texting and Emojis?

    Jim Bacon is being too kind. I know the predictability of student outcomes here – they will be even dumber.

  7. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    ” The phrase “eliminating the predictability of student outcomes” is another way of saying “achieving equal outcomes.”

    No it’s not, unless you just want to believe that.

    In ANY demographic chosen – whether it’s race or something else , even gender, there is NO predictability of equal outcomes.

    In other words – if you took an all white Demographic – the outcomes would NOT be equal AND NOT predictable either.

    What they are saying is that no matter if you took ANY group – you could NOT predict outcomes REGARDLESS of color or economic advantage/disadvantage.

    It’s NOT an effort to make all outcomes the same at all.

    It’s that you should not be able to predict according to color or other attribute.

    The goal of public education is to help each child achieve their full potential. It does NOT mean they will all achieve the same potential.

  8. “In ANY demographic chosen – whether it’s race or something else , even gender, there is NO predictability of equal outcomes.”

    So, you’re disagreeing with the Northam administration, which says that outcomes are NOT predictable on the basis of race, income, zip code, etc.?

  9. Richard Smith Avatar
    Richard Smith

    Critical Race Theory and Wokeness won’t help one bit if you don’t understand that 2+2=4…
    Got that ,,,2+2=4
    After you’ve had a class in white privilege, remember,,, 2+2=4.
    After you been taught some revised version of history and told that George Washington was bad,,,, 2+2=4
    And if you put a different answer down to what does 2+2=, then you will not do well in this world…

  10. Richard Smith Avatar
    Richard Smith

    Critical Race Theory and Wokeness won’t help one bit if you don’t understand that 2+2=4…
    Got that ,,,2+2=4
    After you’ve had a class in white privilege, remember,,, 2+2=4.
    After you been taught some revised version of history and told that George Washington was bad,,,, 2+2=4
    And if you put a different answer down to what does 2+2=, then you will not do well in this world…

  11. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    Jim, the ultimate woke move by the Virginia Department of Education will be to eliminate the SOLs as soon as the federal Department of Education permits it. Under current federal law, no SOLs, no federal dollars. Not sure that law will survive the current Democratic ascendancy in Washington. No data, no problem.

  12. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    Jason Kamras, the Richmond Superintendent of Schools, told the School Board last week that he had decided to take extraordinary measures to address reading deficiencies.

    I have written here criticizing him for not doing just that, so I thank him for listening, much like he did on year-round school, which will start in 2022.

    Good for him. I hope for the kids’ sakes that he succeeds in both efforts.

  13. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Enrollment in Virginia public schools dropped by 37,000 according to the VDOE October enrollment report. How many are coming back now? Will the equity initiative shape enrollment numbers? Last year and this year we see a 13% statewide drop in the area of kindergarten enrollment. Will those delayed kindergarten students redshirt this year? Or maybe sit it out with homeschooling/private school.

  14. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Another important question. Who will teach in 2021-22? VEA president Tom Allen claims there are over 1,000 unfilled positions right now. How many more will there be in August? Factor in the boomers are pulling the parachute as they reach the maximum payout in the VRS pension. School districts are posting openings on Craigslist for next year. Will the new hires even be qualified or even meet standards down the road with a provisional license? Nationally we have a 8% teacher deficiency when compared to last year. That is 670,000 empty chairs. Would a pay bump even bring up those numbers? And who in their right mind would be willing to navigate the stormy seas of equity and CRT?
    https://vpm.org/news/articles/20515/covid-19-didnt-cause-teacher-shortage-but-it-sure-didnt-help

  15. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    My first reaction was the same as Larry’s. But then I read the DOE statement more closely. I could heartily agree with the goal of “eliminating the predictability of student outcomes based on race, gender, zip code, ability, socioeconomic status, or languages spoken at home,” were it not for the word “ability” in the list. That seems silly. The SOL is supposed to test one’s ability to read. I am not sure how one could predict such a score based on “ability”.

    As far as the rest of the statement is concerned, I would hope that anyone would think it a worthy goal of eliminating the effect that race, gender, zip code, socioeconomic status, or language spoken at home would have on a child’s ability to learn to read.

    Regarding the real guts of your post, I agree that the Southwest seems to be doing something right in teaching kids to read. I have commented in the past about the disappointing reading scores in many parts of the state and the need to look at how reading is being taught. (Research shows that the old-fashioned phonics approach is best. Is that what Washington County does?) Then again, it may not be anything Washington County is doing. The better scores may be attributable to something you touched on: Black and Hispanic students being “submerged in a sea of cultural whiteness”. Some research has indicated that Black students do better when they are in classes with a lot of white students. That is what Kamras of Richmond was trying to achieve with his proposed redistricting plan, but the Richmond school board would not back him on it.

    A year or so ago, Supt. Layne indicated that the state would be looking at what the districts with good or improving reading scores were doing to see if any of experience or methods could be duplicated in the districts with poorer scores. That was before the pandemic. I doubt if any such analysis has been done.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: ” I am not sure how one could predict such a score based on “ability”

      me neither and hopefully they just got tangled up on their words.

      the point is many kids – perhaps most – need a competent person to determine where their needs are – phonics and other – like, for instance, dyslexia, which back in the day was wholly unrecognized or even if recognized they may not have the expertise or staff to help it. The point is a lot of kids have different kids of learning issues that need attention if they are going to reach their potential.

      It does NOT mean all of them will reach the SAME potential.

      Some will become – literally rocket scientists and some will become computer guys/gals and other dishwashers.

      BUT – why would it be “predictable” by race? And if it is predictable – by race – shouldn’t that be a reason for concern and investigation without it being called “woke”?

      In SW Va – the demographics are different but so are the school districts – schools are not bifurcated near as much by neighborhood income levels , poverty or race and so all kids end up going to the same schools and “mainstreamed” – which means if a kid is in a class and struggling – the teacher gets with him/her and tries to figure it out.

      In an urban school where much of the class comes from a poverty neighborhood and many are from dysfunctional homes.. and behind academically – the scope and scale of the problem is enormous and way more than SW Va.

  16. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    It is now a vital element of political theory, a bit on both sides really, that your problems are not your own fault but are the result of discrimination, racism, extreme liberal or conservative whack jobs, or whatever. So poverty and educational failure MUST be due to outside factors that only the government can address and protect you from, if you vote for the correct set of caring, compassionate leaders and give them all of the other guys money (not your own, of course) to spend on you.

    Education is one area where the fallacy of this is most evident. It depends entirely on individual effort, commitment, family support or some other adult support structure. For two generations now the old racial barriers are gone, and frankly when they existed some incredibly strong schools existed for motivated black students. Many, many of those students excelled.

    But “get off your butts, quit whining and get to work, support your kids in school” is not a message that wins elections. “You are the master of your own fate” is never going to sell. It’s like this vaccination debate, with the racist RTD again whining that white people are getting too many shots. The shots are there for anybody and it isn’t not racism or inequity preventing some from getting them. At this point, even most pharmacies have them. But one reporter in particular has a racially driven message to peddle.

    I looked around Friday at Arthur Ashe Center and noted the crowd was about 90% white. In Richmond’s North Side, on major bus lines. I could see vans bringing folks. Nobody is being blocked — the shots are there.

  17. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    One of the counties Jim often ignores in his comparisons is his own – Henrico – which also has some schools in some neighborhoods that are more like Richmond schools academic performance than say Washington County.

    Henrico is a large school system with many schools – and the schools are, as is often the case, reflective of the neighborhood economic demographics, more plainly stated… rich neighborhoods and poor neighborhoods.

    So the point here is that Henrico has some of the better schools in its district in Virginia – BUT, it ALSO has some of the worst performing schools in the very same district with the very same school leadership and administrators.

    That does not play as neatly as comparing school districts as opposed to the individual schools in the districts.

    So Washington County has far fewer schools and the individual schools are a lot less bifurcated by income demographics than one might see in a county like Henrico.

    So – if you wanted to compare individual schools in Washington Co to similar numbers of schools within the Henrico Schools district – you could get a good compare and a bad compare.

    If you compared individual schools in Washington Co with some of the better schools in Henrico – you’d likely see Henrico with superior stats – even for economically disadvantaged in those higher performing schools.

    But if you compared some of the poorer performing individual schools in Henrico to Washington , Washington would be superior to them likely on a similar basis to the Richmond Schools ( Some of the poorer Henrico neighborhoods are adjacent to Richmond city).

    Oh – so the point?

    Jim’s narrative is somewhat simplistic, conveniently so – to fit his premise but that narrative is not really reflective of some other realities that are not so simple and more complex.

    Some of the lowest performing schools in Virginia ARE in Henrico – as well as Richmond – and likely for some of the same reasons (I think).

    But we can’t really understand that larger context when we restrict comparisons the way that Jim has… some might conclude it’s a simple case of Washington teaching it’s kids better than Richmond but if true does that also mean Washington is better at teaching some of it’s kids than Henrico also?

    When one makes THAT comparison – what can one understand, perhaps better?

    Jim continues to present that same comparison narrative over several posts and I continue to point out that perhaps it’s a narrative not really as reflective of the issue as it could be – which goes back to the core premise in this blog post which is skepticism of Virginia’s interest in equity, e.g. Washington County seems to not have THAT problem but Richmond DOES. Well… so does Henrico – and Fairfax and more than a few other countries with lots of individual schools in their districts and neighborhoods that are bifurcated with respect to income.

    The reasons are still not completely understood, but I think VDOE would be irresponsible to: 1. – not recognize the issue and 2. Not try to put into place, some policies that might better address than current.

    Calling it “woke” is just more of the same partisan poking …. a year ago , Jim would be using the phrase “virtue signaling” or some such.

    So Conservatives like Jim seem to throw up their hands at the problem, view it with a different lens so it better fits their own preferred view and criticize the “liberals” and their “failures”.

    Obviously IMHO.

  18. Matt Hurt Avatar
    Matt Hurt

    First of all, achieving equitable outcomes with regards to SOL “pass rates” is not at all unreasonable. To pass an SOL test, a student simply needs to meet the state’s minimum expectation of proficiency. Why is it that students in different demographic groups could not be expected to meet that minimum standard? This is really not that much of a stretch, and some folks are getting this done.

    The table below demonstrates the range of subgroup SOL pass rates from the least successful region in 2019 to the most successful. The color scales of the differences for Math and Reading are set so that the smallest difference is green, the largest difference is red, and the middle difference is yellow.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/719770b8ae574d4f6a0aa0f71fe2388d0213cef24c3fc0e122148bb85bb44877.png

    Why is it that if you’re a white kid, your chance of earning at least a minimally proficient score will likely vary about 6-8 points based on which part of the state you attend, but if you’re a black student, your variance is about double that? Same thing with disabled kids compared to non-disabled kids. Are the less smart kids distributed in some parts of the state, and more smart kids distributed in other parts of the state? Obviously the answer is no. These disparate results are due to the adults, not the students, and those adults are not the parents.

    As Jim mentioned in the post, the state Board of Education has lowered those expectations in the last few years. When they lower the bar, more kids will be able to step over it. The lowering of the expectations will not improve outcomes in measures that control for the differences in the expectations. I suspect that our performance as a state will decline compared to other states that did not decrease expectations. These lowered expectations will surely mask some of the differences in subgroup pass rates. The effects of Covid notwithstanding, this will help everything look better on paper.

    The table below demonstrates the difference in cut scores adopted by the Board of Education in math for the old standards (2009 Math) and the new standards (2016 Math). The last year we administered SOL tests based on the old standards was 2018. In 2019 we administered SOL tests based on the new standards. The difference in state level pass rates were primarily driven by the difference in the cut scores (expectations of the Board). The only scores to drop were Math 6, and this was one of the few courses to actually see an increase in the rigor of the standards themselves (a couple of 7th grade skills were dropped into 6th grade with this set of standards.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/831c0dff73f53b0bc234a011ccbf16ee47e4ed11906132e1e6472f195a48d115.png

    Similarly, last fall the Board of Education adopted new cut scores for the 2017 Reading standards that we’ll assess for the first time this spring. The table below demonstrates the difference between the old cut scores for pass proficient versus the new.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f973cd808dec3211ead887819b0d696c481ae0388a3ea6e5bf4c7b3d0478e4ee.png

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      Wow! I had now idea the End of Course cut score for reading is now below 50%. End of Course pass scores are needed for verified credits and a HS diploma. The EOC cut scores are scaled and skewed to the point where one has to wonder if the data has any legitimacy left. I expect a demolition crew will implode SOLs and a new measurement in line with equity and CRT will take it’s place.

  19. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    It is now a vital element of political theory, a bit on both sides really, that your problems are not your own fault but are the result of discrimination, racism, extreme liberal or conservative whack jobs, or whatever. So poverty and educational failure MUST be due to outside factors that only the government can address and protect you from, if you vote for the correct set of caring, compassionate leaders and give them all of the other guys money (not your own, of course) to spend on you.

    Education is one area where the fallacy of this is most evident. It depends entirely on individual effort, commitment, family support or some other adult support structure. For two generations now the old racial barriers are gone, and frankly when they existed some incredibly strong schools existed for motivated black students. Many, many of those students excelled.

    But “get off your butts, quit whining and get to work, support your kids in school” is not a message that wins elections. “You are the master of your own fate” is never going to sell. It’s like this vaccination debate, with the racist RTD again whining that white people are getting too many shots. The shots are there for anybody and it isn’t not racism or inequity preventing some from getting them. At this point, even most pharmacies have them. But one reporter in particular has a racially driven message to peddle.

    I looked around Friday at Arthur Ashe Center and noted the crowd was about 90% white. In Richmond’s North Side, on major bus lines. I could see vans bringing folks. Nobody is being blocked — the shots are there.

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