Will Northam’s Bungled Vaccine Rollout Help Virginia’s GOP?

by Kerry Dougherty

Political scientists are fond of pointing out how Mother Nature can, at times, intrude into politics in the most unexpected ways.

For example, the list of big-city mayors who lost their jobs due to slow snow removal is long. There’s a name for this phenomenon: Plow or perish. 

According to Bloomberg News, it started with New York City Mayor John Lindsay whose lack of alacrity in a February 1969 blizzard not only cost 42 New Yorkers their lives, but cost him his job.

In 1979, Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic bungled a blizzard and was gone in the next election.

Denver Mayor Bill McNichols also blamed a 1982 blizzard for the demise of his 15-year reign.

And in 2009, Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels was doomed after he bowed to environmentalists and refused to allow the streets to be salted before a major snowstorm.

Likewise, a $100 million-a-mile light rail system seemed on its way to easy approval in Virginia Beach in 2016 until Hurricane Matthew struck that September, bringing with it 14 inches of rain, a biblical flood and damages of about $30 million. By Election Day voters were wondering where their tax dollars would be better spent: on a train to nowhere or flood mitigation.

Light rail was drowned by voters.

In a smilier vein, Jane Fonda quipped last summer that “COVID-19 has been God’s gift to the left.”

Indeed, it was.

Without the pandemic, it’s hard to see how Donald Trump would have lost the presidency, with the economy booming and employment at record highs.

Conversely, it’s hard to see how Democrats in Richmond continue their winning ways this November with the Northam administration’s audacious bungling of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. This is precisely the sort of issue that could lose the suburban vote.

Unless Democrats are willing to join Republicans in criticizing  the vaccine response and the man in charge, they are going to shoulder some of the blame for this mess.

With the only physician/governor in the country, Virginia would be expected to set an example for a smooth vaccine rollout.

Instead, as of earlier this week, the state ranked dead last in percent of available vaccines that had been distributed. That ranking has now improved somewhat, according to news reports.

On Wednesday, the governor admitted that he was frustrated and announced that the state was working on a website and hotline number to get seniors on the list to receive the vaccine.

Think about that for a moment. The vaccine has been available since December. It’s the end of January and Northam’s crack COVID team is WORKING ON a website.

What’s taking so long? Where’s the sense of urgency?

As of Thursday, 54% of all confirmed COVID deaths in Virginia were among nursing home residents and the majority – 67% – of all deaths were among those 70 and older. Yet the elderly wait — not patiently — as much younger teachers and workers get vaccinated.

That’s infuriating. If this is about saving lives, seniors should go first. Period.

Perhaps the pandemic will be over by November, schools will be open and mask wearing will be just a bad memory. In that case, some sort of Election Day amnesia could help the Democrats.

But at the rate the Northam administration is working, the electorate may be impatient, angry and raw by then. They could look for a change of direction. Especially if teachers’ unions in Fairfax County — and yes, Fairfax has the American Federation of Teachers, a bona fide union — are successful in keeping schools closed.

Never underestimate the ability of Republicans to nominate unelectable candidates. But if they choose wisely this year, Virginia Democrats could be on the defensive.

This article is republished with permission from Kerry: Unemployed & Unedited.


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68 responses to “Will Northam’s Bungled Vaccine Rollout Help Virginia’s GOP?”

  1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    No more or less than getting a shot from Amada Chase will help the DPVA.

  2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    No more or less than getting a shot from Amada Chase will help the DPVA.

  3. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The problem for Republicans will be that Northam will not be on the ballot.

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      But his best bud will. We all know Northam was a holding place card.

  4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The problem for Republicans will be that Northam will not be on the ballot.

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      But his best bud will. We all know Northam was a holding place card.

  5. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Do you mean a vaccine or a bullet?

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      Good one!

  6. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Do you mean a vaccine or a bullet?

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      Good one!

  7. ksmith8953 Avatar
    ksmith8953

    I agree with Kerry, this could indeed become the end of a democratic run. It worries me little and I am usually a Democrat. Lately, I have become a little more conservative and there are a lot of folks like me in Petersburg, a very blue area. Virginia is last in vaccine administration for the country and yesterday we finally learned Crater was last in state. We have a very high level of economically disadvantaged with health problems. Crater should not have been taxed with vaccine distribution.

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      Keep in mind that Cox is from this blue area called Crater. It is doable.

  8. ksmith8953 Avatar
    ksmith8953

    I agree with Kerry, this could indeed become the end of a democratic run. It worries me little and I am usually a Democrat. Lately, I have become a little more conservative and there are a lot of folks like me in Petersburg, a very blue area. Virginia is last in vaccine administration for the country and yesterday we finally learned Crater was last in state. We have a very high level of economically disadvantaged with health problems. Crater should not have been taxed with vaccine distribution.

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      Keep in mind that Cox is from this blue area called Crater. It is doable.

  9. sherlockj Avatar

    Vaccine rollout is but one example of an uninterrupted series of Northam administration failures that will rile the voters.

    Closed public schools is another. They remain closed in the bluest areas of the state. More are open to in-person instruction in red areas.

    I wrote back in June https://www.baconsrebellion.com/open-the-schools/ a forecast of what would happen if we didn’t open the schools to in-person instruction. That essay and a hundred others made the same assessments and proved spot-on accurate.

    So the things that the Governor finds troubling were not only predictable, but predicted.

    He and his incompetent department heads have proven clueless about health and education responses to the pandemic not only from the first day of the COVID crisis but also in years leading up to it, when they ignored their own pandemic emergency plan.

    The ultimate frustration and inexplicable contrast on education is for parents home trying to coax their kids to stare at computer screens six hours a day while the kids next door have been going full time all year to a Catholic school and are healthy, happy and educated.

    Many blue voters, infuriated, will consider new representation in Richmond.

    Unfortunately the Republican Party of Virginia has often in the recent past offered candidates that can’t attract rational conservative voters, much less disenchanted blue voters.

    For all of our sakes, I hope history does not repeat itself.

  10. sherlockj Avatar

    Vaccine rollout is but one example of an uninterrupted series of Northam administration failures that will rile the voters.

    Closed public schools is another. They remain closed in the bluest areas of the state. More are open to in-person instruction in red areas.

    I wrote back in June https://www.baconsrebellion.com/open-the-schools/ a forecast of what would happen if we didn’t open the schools to in-person instruction. That essay and a hundred others made the same assessments and proved spot-on accurate.

    So the things that the Governor finds troubling were not only predictable, but predicted.

    He and his incompetent department heads have proven clueless about health and education responses to the pandemic not only from the first day of the COVID crisis but also in years leading up to it, when they ignored their own pandemic emergency plan.

    The ultimate frustration and inexplicable contrast on education is for parents home trying to coax their kids to stare at computer screens six hours a day while the kids next door have been going full time all year to a Catholic school and are healthy, happy and educated.

    Many blue voters, infuriated, will consider new representation in Richmond.

    Unfortunately the Republican Party of Virginia has often in the recent past offered candidates that can’t attract rational conservative voters, much less disenchanted blue voters.

    For all of our sakes, I hope history does not repeat itself.

  11. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead V

    We are hearing a number of Pete Snyder radio ads in Northern Virginia. Snyder’s ads are linking Northam and McAuliffe together which could be an effective strategy for Republicans this year. Snyder is promoting himself as a common sense outsider and business leader. He seems to have a bit more polish than other outside candidates such as Daniel Gade.

  12. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead V

    We are hearing a number of Pete Snyder radio ads in Northern Virginia. Snyder’s ads are linking Northam and McAuliffe together which could be an effective strategy for Republicans this year. Snyder is promoting himself as a common sense outsider and business leader. He seems to have a bit more polish than other outside candidates such as Daniel Gade.

  13. VaNavVet Avatar

    Trump’s persona turned off millions of voters even before the pandemic and it will take a lot more than a slow vaccine rollout to revive the Virginia GOP.

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      I don’t agree. There are closed schools and most importantly a broken economy. I have a neighbor who is still waiting for an unemployment hearing from a lay off last spring. She is living in NC for employment and trying hold down not one, but two households as her NC job is temporary. I think the party with the best realistic solutions will win. It’s all about the solution not the problem. No finger pointing, just get the job done wisely and efficiently.

  14. VaNavVet Avatar

    Trump’s persona turned off millions of voters even before the pandemic and it will take a lot more than a slow vaccine rollout to revive the Virginia GOP.

    1. ksmith8953 Avatar
      ksmith8953

      I don’t agree. There are closed schools and most importantly a broken economy. I have a neighbor who is still waiting for an unemployment hearing from a lay off last spring. She is living in NC for employment and trying hold down not one, but two households as her NC job is temporary. I think the party with the best realistic solutions will win. It’s all about the solution not the problem. No finger pointing, just get the job done wisely and efficiently.

  15. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    What will be an interesting factor is any anger towards Democrats in Fairfax County from Asian-Americans over the TJHSST admission changes that appears to have unlawfully removed the state requirement for the use of standardized tests as part of the process and the School Board’s failure to take minutes in compliance with state law.

  16. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    What will be an interesting factor is any anger towards Democrats in Fairfax County from Asian-Americans over the TJHSST admission changes that appears to have unlawfully removed the state requirement for the use of standardized tests as part of the process and the School Board’s failure to take minutes in compliance with state law.

  17. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    It’s not the start that counts. It’s the finish.

    BTW, I’m now taking bets on the Super Bowl this year. BR readers are being offered a special. I’ll give you Dallas and 21.

  18. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    It’s not the start that counts. It’s the finish.

    BTW, I’m now taking bets on the Super Bowl this year. BR readers are being offered a special. I’ll give you Dallas and 21.

  19. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    “Instead, as of earlier this week, the state ranked dead last in percent of available vaccines that had been distributed. That ranking has now improved somewhat, according to news reports.”

    As of today Virginia is 21st. In terms of number of doses administered as a percentage of state population, we have continued to rise there as well – currently at #22 at 7.78% based on Becker’s data.

  20. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    “Instead, as of earlier this week, the state ranked dead last in percent of available vaccines that had been distributed. That ranking has now improved somewhat, according to news reports.”

    As of today Virginia is 21st. In terms of number of doses administered as a percentage of state population, we have continued to rise there as well – currently at #22 at 7.78% based on Becker’s data.

  21. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    FWIW, I have taken the Doses as a Percentage of Population data from the past four days and extended the trendline to 70%. Based on this projection, we would hit the 70% level circa 4/20/2021. This does not directly correspond to 70% of the population vaccinated because it does not account for the second doses. I suspect vaccination rates will also accelerate dramatically but I was surprised at how quick we hit that kind of level.

    1. djrippert Avatar

      I’d love to see the math behind your calculations. There are about 6.6 million adults in Virginia. Let’s be charitable and say 600k have already been vaccinated. That leaves 6 million. 70% of 6 million is 4.2 million. There are 82 days between now and April 21,2021. We’d have to administer 8.4 million doses to those 4.2 million people. That’s 102,439 doses per day, 7 days a week. We’re only receiving about 27,000 doses a day right now.

      Northam may be drawing down the built up inventory and administering more than 27,000 doses per day but that inventory will soon run out.

      I’m not saying you are wrong but I’ve been doing those same calculations and I come up with closer to the end of the year than April.

      1. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
        Eric the Half a Troll

        Using a population of 8,590,563 I used the following doses administered for the past 4 days to calculate Doses as a % of Population. The data is 1/26 – 451,668 – 5.26%, 1/27 594,828 – 6.92%, 1/28 629,019 – 7.32% and 1/29 668,401 7.78%.

        I then simply used Excel to graph the % vs. Date for the four points and had Excel draw a trend line on that data and extend it to 80%. It crosses the 70% level around 4/20.

        No doubt the fatal flaw is in building a trend off of 4 data points. As you indicated there are way too many variables to assume that tend is valid and we may have just seen a steep rise in these four days. The first delta is about 143K while the subsequent 2 are 34K and 39K. Using just the last three data points, the 70% projection jumps to 6/27. I am going to try to keep tracking this daily to see if the trend changes.

        1. djrippert Avatar

          Got it. Your numbers are cumulative doses. Between 1/26 and 1/29 (4 days) we administered 216,733 doses (668,401 – 451,668). That’s 54,183 doses per day. No wonder we are moving up the statistical charts. Unfortunately, we are only receiving about 27,000 does per day (2.7% of the 1m doses per day being shipped). At the rate we’re going we will run out of accumulated inventory in about 18 days. After that we’ll just have to hope that the manufacturers can get close to Biden’s goal of 1.5m doses per day.

          The good news is that it seems Virginia has figured out how to administer the doses we have. The bad news is will need more doses per day by mid-February.

          Keep an eye on the “Doses distributed to state” number. I am confident that the doses shipped to Virginia will end up being the real constraint as to how fast we can reach herd immunity.

        2. Please post your findings on this blog.

  22. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    FWIW, I have taken the Doses as a Percentage of Population data from the past four days and extended the trendline to 70%. Based on this projection, we would hit the 70% level circa 4/20/2021. This does not directly correspond to 70% of the population vaccinated because it does not account for the second doses. I suspect vaccination rates will also accelerate dramatically but I was surprised at how quick we hit that kind of level.

    1. djrippert Avatar

      I’d love to see the math behind your calculations. There are about 6.6 million adults in Virginia. Let’s be charitable and say 600k have already been vaccinated. That leaves 6 million. 70% of 6 million is 4.2 million. There are 82 days between now and April 21,2021. We’d have to administer 8.4 million doses to those 4.2 million people. That’s 102,439 doses per day, 7 days a week. We’re only receiving about 27,000 doses a day right now.

      Northam may be drawing down the built up inventory and administering more than 27,000 doses per day but that inventory will soon run out.

      I’m not saying you are wrong but I’ve been doing those same calculations and I come up with closer to the end of the year than April.

      1. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
        Eric the Half a Troll

        Using a population of 8,590,563 I used the following doses administered for the past 4 days to calculate Doses as a % of Population. The data is 1/26 – 451,668 – 5.26%, 1/27 594,828 – 6.92%, 1/28 629,019 – 7.32% and 1/29 668,401 7.78%.

        I then simply used Excel to graph the % vs. Date for the four points and had Excel draw a trend line on that data and extend it to 80%. It crosses the 70% level around 4/20.

        No doubt the fatal flaw is in building a trend off of 4 data points. As you indicated there are way too many variables to assume that tend is valid and we may have just seen a steep rise in these four days. The first delta is about 143K while the subsequent 2 are 34K and 39K. Using just the last three data points, the 70% projection jumps to 6/27. I am going to try to keep tracking this daily to see if the trend changes.

        1. djrippert Avatar

          Got it. Your numbers are cumulative doses. Between 1/26 and 1/29 (4 days) we administered 216,733 doses (668,401 – 451,668). That’s 54,183 doses per day. No wonder we are moving up the statistical charts. Unfortunately, we are only receiving about 27,000 does per day (2.7% of the 1m doses per day being shipped). At the rate we’re going we will run out of accumulated inventory in about 18 days. After that we’ll just have to hope that the manufacturers can get close to Biden’s goal of 1.5m doses per day.

          The good news is that it seems Virginia has figured out how to administer the doses we have. The bad news is will need more doses per day by mid-February.

          Keep an eye on the “Doses distributed to state” number. I am confident that the doses shipped to Virginia will end up being the real constraint as to how fast we can reach herd immunity.

        2. Please post your findings on this blog.

  23. SuburbanWoman Avatar
    SuburbanWoman

    A huge swath of the population will NEVER take the vaccine. Take a look at the insanity on social media.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      I’d rather not. I suspect that virus mutations may take care of the human mutants that occupy the social networks.

    2. djrippert Avatar

      Should a restaurant owner be allowed to only seat patrons who can prove they received the vaccination (or got and recovered from COVID-19)?

  24. SuburbanWoman Avatar
    SuburbanWoman

    A huge swath of the population will NEVER take the vaccine. Take a look at the insanity on social media.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      I’d rather not. I suspect that virus mutations may take care of the human mutants that occupy the social networks.

    2. djrippert Avatar

      Should a restaurant owner be allowed to only seat patrons who can prove they received the vaccination (or got and recovered from COVID-19)?

  25. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
    Bill O’Keefe

    This year’s election should be the republicans to lose but as we have been observing in DC, they know how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Even though Northam won’t be on the ballot, it should not be hard to tie him to whoever is. And, that goes for the dems who are running for the General Assembly. The handling of the virus has been disastrous and goes well beyond just the lock down. Poor planning and no sense of crisis management should be a sure way to political retirement.

    1. djrippert Avatar

      On the Dem side I see Jennifer Foy, Lee Carter, Justin Fairfax, Terry McAulliffe and Jennifer McClellan running.

      Carter is a socialist and Fairfax has been twice accused of forcible rape. I don’t see either of them being serious contenders.

      McAuliffe is McAuliffe. He’ll be pained with his failure and lawsuits over the GreenTech fiasco and his fatally incompetent effort in Charlottesville. I’m not sure Virginians are ready for round 2 of TMac.

      That leaves Foy and McClellan. They are both serious candidates.

      1. idiocracy Avatar

        “Carter is a socialist”

        He’s also from Manassas. A double-whammy.

      2. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        Least you forget I-66 tolling, I don’t think Mr. McAuliffe made many friends when on day two at 0800 the toll hit $43 dollars.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Given traffic algorithms, cost of gas, burn rates for a specific car, speed differentials, etc., etc., your car should be able to calculate the optimal choice between HOV-Toll, within input time constraints , or which lane in the free lanes.

          If I tell my car that I’m willing to pay $20/hr to save time, it just becomes an optimization problem.

          Of course, that takes the fun of being stuck in traffic out of it — the adrenaline high from frustration anger.

          1. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            I-66 IBW has no free lanes, it’s just tolled during hours people commute to work.

            0530-0930 eastbound Monday through Friday
            1500-1900 westbound Monday through Friday

            Oh and that $43 dollars was for 10 miles and it’s like that or higher on a daily basis.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            In 68 years, I’ve never driven west of DC north of Front Royal, give or take half dozen miles. Never saw any use to go there. Given the tolls, probably never will.

          3. idiocracy Avatar

            That’s just part of the price you pay for living in a vibrant, dynamic place like Northern Virginia.

          4. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
            Bill O’Keefe

            What kind of car do you have that can make those kind of calculations?
            I think that the I-66 problem was a failure to do enough or any testing of the algorithm before implement the system.

          5. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            God, they all can nowadays, Bill. These cars are sensored to the max. Mine has automatic braking. Works like a champ too. If someone walks behind me the car won’t move. It holds lane and distance in cruise control. It bitches at me if I change lanes without a turn signal. If I plug in my smart phone, it maps routes for minimum time.

            These ain’t a 1964 VW.

          6. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
            Bill O’Keefe

            I’m sure that is an answer to some question but just not the one that I asked. So, one more time. You said that you can tell your navigation system the value of your time and it will maximize your route. Have you ever done that? What kind of navigation system do you have?

          7. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Any new car CAN, none do as of yet. They only need the programming. Your average car today has more computational power than NASA had for the Apollo program.

            Cars already solve far more difficult problems than estimating a toll cost minimization problem subject to a handful of constraints.

            I didn’t mean to imply that such calculations currently exist. Just that everything necessary to perform

  26. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
    Bill O’Keefe

    This year’s election should be the republicans to lose but as we have been observing in DC, they know how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Even though Northam won’t be on the ballot, it should not be hard to tie him to whoever is. And, that goes for the dems who are running for the General Assembly. The handling of the virus has been disastrous and goes well beyond just the lock down. Poor planning and no sense of crisis management should be a sure way to political retirement.

    1. djrippert Avatar

      On the Dem side I see Jennifer Foy, Lee Carter, Justin Fairfax, Terry McAulliffe and Jennifer McClellan running.

      Carter is a socialist and Fairfax has been twice accused of forcible rape. I don’t see either of them being serious contenders.

      McAuliffe is McAuliffe. He’ll be pained with his failure and lawsuits over the GreenTech fiasco and his fatally incompetent effort in Charlottesville. I’m not sure Virginians are ready for round 2 of TMac.

      That leaves Foy and McClellan. They are both serious candidates.

      1. idiocracy Avatar

        “Carter is a socialist”

        He’s also from Manassas. A double-whammy.

      2. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        Least you forget I-66 tolling, I don’t think Mr. McAuliffe made many friends when on day two at 0800 the toll hit $43 dollars.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Given traffic algorithms, cost of gas, burn rates for a specific car, speed differentials, etc., etc., your car should be able to calculate the optimal choice between HOV-Toll, within input time constraints , or which lane in the free lanes.

          If I tell my car that I’m willing to pay $20/hr to save time, it just becomes an optimization problem.

          Of course, that takes the fun of being stuck in traffic out of it — the adrenaline high from frustration anger.

          1. idiocracy Avatar

            That’s just part of the price you pay for living in a vibrant, dynamic place like Northern Virginia.

          2. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            I-66 IBW has no free lanes, it’s just tolled during hours people commute to work.

            0530-0930 eastbound Monday through Friday
            1500-1900 westbound Monday through Friday

            Oh and that $43 dollars was for 10 miles and it’s like that or higher on a daily basis.

          3. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            In 68 years, I’ve never driven west of DC north of Front Royal, give or take half dozen miles. Never saw any use to go there. Given the tolls, probably never will.

          4. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
            Bill O’Keefe

            What kind of car do you have that can make those kind of calculations?
            I think that the I-66 problem was a failure to do enough or any testing of the algorithm before implement the system.

          5. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            God, they all can nowadays, Bill. These cars are sensored to the max. Mine has automatic braking. Works like a champ too. If someone walks behind me the car won’t move. It holds lane and distance in cruise control. It bitches at me if I change lanes without a turn signal. If I plug in my smart phone, it maps routes for minimum time.

            These ain’t a 1964 VW.

          6. Bill O'Keefe Avatar
            Bill O’Keefe

            I’m sure that is an answer to some question but just not the one that I asked. So, one more time. You said that you can tell your navigation system the value of your time and it will maximize your route. Have you ever done that? What kind of navigation system do you have?

          7. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Any new car CAN, none do as of yet. They only need the programming. Your average car today has more computational power than NASA had for the Apollo program.

            Cars already solve far more difficult problems than estimating a toll cost minimization problem subject to a handful of constraints.

            I didn’t mean to imply that such calculations currently exist. Just that everything necessary to perform

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