Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and members of the General Assembly haven’t yet said publicly where they expect to raise more money for transportation, but there’s little doubt about one thing: Wherever the money comes from, more of it will go to light and heavy rail than in the past.
I happen to be agnostic on the great rail-versus-road debate. I just want Virginia’s transportation dollars to be invested to the greatest effect possible, as measured by objective criteria such as mobility provided, pollution reduced and traffic congestion mitigated. If that means building dirt paths for foot-powered scooters, then I’m OK with it.
What worries me is that a lot of people regard commuter rail as an end to itself — regardless of the cost or benefits. In theory, light rail passenger trains can move many people as eight lanes of freeway. That’s why rail buffs often advocate running light rail lines down the center of freeways in preference to adding more lanes of asphalt. In the real world, though, rail traffic can be constrained by people’s ability to get to the train stations, and a host of other factors.
Writing for the Independent Institute website, John Semmens quotes a Arizona Department of Transportation Research Center study that evaluated several alternatives: HOV lanes, HOT lanes, general purpose (GP) lanes and light rail. AzDOT calculated the cost per person-mile for each. The conclusion: HOT lanes that accommodate Bus Rapid Transit have the lowest cost.
I would hope that Virginia does similar cost-benefit calculations when transportation dollars are allocated. If such comparisons exist for, say, the Dulles Corridor or the I-95 corridor, I haven’t seen them. Maybe advocates of greater investments in rail can point to studies like Arizona’s in their support. But then, maybe the decision to shift money from road to rail has been made on a purely political basis, whether to garner favorable headlines, curry favor with particular interest groups or some reason unknown.
If the rail-versus-road studies are out there, I would surely love to see them. Someone please tell me where to find them.