Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

When the WaPo Admits There’s a Homicide Crisis… There’s a Homicide Crisis.

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Graphic credit: Washington Post. Click here to access the WaPo’s interactive feature showing the data for each city.

by James A. Bacon

Delve into the comments on Bacon’s Rebellion, and you will find that the dialogue often collapses due to disagreements over basic facts. One recurring dispute is the degree to which the violent crime rate is increasing, both nationally and here in Virginia. Some see the violent-crime-is-increasing narrative as a right-wing talking point with little grounding in reality… except when we’re talking about mass shootings, in which case the U.S. is the most violent country in the world.

News alert: When The Washington Post acknowledges that violent crime is surging, it can no longer be dismissed as a meme of election deniers, MAGA-hat wearers and other right-wing knuckle draggers. A WaPo story today refers to the spate in violence as “America’s homicide crisis.”

“The rate of killings rose nearly 30 percent in 2020 and remained high through the following year,” said the Post. “Even now, as the bloodshed has slowed, the homicide rate outpaces pre-pandemic levels.”

This gun violence tends to grab headlines when it occurs in horrific public spasms: at a Walmart in Virginia, a nightclub in Colorado, an elementary school in rural Texas. But the focus on mass shootings obscures the totality of the American ailment: people killed on city streets and inside their homes, deaths that seldom attract national attention and cases that rarely involve high-profile prosecutions….

Gun crime disproportionately impacts people of color, especially Black men. Victim data collected from each city profiled here show Black people made up more than 70 percent of the total homicide victims in 2020 and 2021. And while data show gun deaths have surged around the country, a number of cities have lead the way.

Exactly what we’ve been saying at Bacon’s Rebellion since 2020.

Welcome to the dark side, WaPo. Welcome to reality.

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71 responses to “When the WaPo Admits There’s a Homicide Crisis… There’s a Homicide Crisis.”

  1. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    The issue is to the MAGA hat wearing Trumpist care about the risk of being murder when they do/did not care at all about the risk of dying from Covid-19 or being hospitalized due to Covid-19. The concern for crime shows that conservatives have given up on the idea of relative risks and risk assessment.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Three reports from peer-reviewed studies:
      1. Fentanyl overdoses have become the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18 to 45.

      2. The number one cause of death for young black Americans is murder. Often traceable to disputes about selling fentanyl.

      3. Homicide is the leading cause of death for pregnant women in U.S.

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        The U.S. went from 2.85 million deaths in 2019 to 3.49 million. Compared to all other risks of deaths increased fentynal deaths and increased car accidents were lost in round off as compared to Covid-19. Yet conservatives want to get excited about the 24,576 homicides in 2020 rather than then 500k deaths due to Covid-19. That is a textbook example of refusing to think about risks.

        1. Elliott Webb Avatar
          Elliott Webb

          Too bad one cannot trust Covid-19 death stats because of the dying “with” and dying “from” disconnect. Hospitals are rewarded financially for lumping all into the latter category.

          1. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            The concern about categories does not change the 550k additional deaths in 2020 versus 2019. Try harder and try not calling so many people and much of the world liars. In reality, the number of people who died from Covid-19 is probably underestimated since the total increase in deaths was lowered than the compiled Covid-19 deaths. Once again, word games do not make data go away.

  2. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    So far, this year, the equivalent of more than 100 mass murders have occurred in Chicago. A psycho in a Wal-Mart or a gay bar correctly garners national headlines. But the carnage in America’s inner cities goes on, day after day, barely noticed …

    https://graphics.suntimes.com/homicides/

    1. Nathan Avatar
      Nathan

      Yes, I was just thinking that even on this blog a disproportionate amount of attention is given to the smallest subset of violent crime – mass murders.

      And even mass murders have a pecking order.

      #1 mass murders committed with scary black guns
      #2 mass murders committed with other guns
      #? mass murders committed with knives

      “Idaho murders: Two weeks have passed since four college students stabbed to death at off-campus house”

      https://www.foxnews.com/us/idaho-murders-two-weeks-have-passed-since-four-college-students-stabbed-death-off-campus-house

      Where are the purposed solutions for this one?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        how many mass murders have been committed in the US with knives?

        I bet even FOX “news” knows.

        1. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          Violent crimes in 2021 by weapon used for the offence.

          Personal Weapons – 178,965

          Handgun – 140,901

          Knife/Cutting Instrument – 88,587

          Firearm – 67,928

          Blunt Object – 51,825

          None – 49,922

          Other – 49,462

          Unknown – 23,079

          Asphyxiation – 14,549

          Rifle – 7,981

          – FBI

          I assume black scary rifles which are so often mentioned with respect to what needs to be banned are included within the 7,981 for all rifles.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            mass murders…

          2. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            Guess you are determined to reinforce DJRippert’s point above.

            “A psycho in a Wal-Mart or a gay bar correctly garners national headlines. But the carnage in America’s inner cities goes on, day after day, barely noticed …”

            88,587 crimes committed with knives isn’t significant? Not worth anyone’s time?

            Besides, you didn’t answer my question, so why should I answer yours?

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Hey are you freaking kidding?

            We have 330 million people in this country and what 88,587 knife “crimes”?

            I think that’s something like:
            2.684454545454545e-4%

            What’s the point here?

            For me it’s the inane arguments used by opponents to

            1. – detect the mentally ill BEFORE they get guns like we say we should have done but didn’t.

            2. – actually deny them access to high capacity guns that they used to kill large numbers of people.

            Not really about how many die from knives or one-on-one murders. That’s a distraction from the opponents to stop any/all methods to deny the weapons.

            It’s about wackos who ARE disturbed being able to buy those weapons and our less than sincere talk about it being due to “mental illness” – that we will not actually address to detect and deny access to guns because it will take away “gun rights” of others.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      this is not the latest but it illustrates the cherry picking:

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7123b4e59edc49ee17950c6f253acc603487212f90cbcbaf57e4fa5dc57cb7d.jpg

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/199e0b77101cf3c472a486a8484cfc5b70d78b6f50dacfc2c42b302b7334c540.jpg

      and compare Chicago to 3rd world countries …

      1. James McCarthy Avatar
        James McCarthy

        Wait! Wait! Where’s NYC my hometown which is often bashed on BR? This graph cannot be correct. It’s insulting to the bashers.

        1. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          NYC is heaven on Earth. Perhaps you should move back. I’m sure they would be happy to see you return.

          “Tracking returns filed in 2019 and 2020 showed that 479,826 people left New York for another state or country in those years. Over the same timeframe, just 231,439 people moved to the state. That means the state suffered a net loss of 248,387 residents.”

          “And, of course, those people took their money with them. The IRS figures show the moves generated an economic exodus of more than $19.5 billion.”

          https://www.thecentersquare.com/new_york/new-york-loses-19-5-billion-in-population-exodus-irs-confirms/article_c805dfd6-dde6-11ec-8d0e-4f667cd41881.html

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            still…..

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f4f4f83e3c330b7afe48bc56875a5f8cef5ac6f405fd9739f8115eacbf7e1443.jpg

            let me guess… you’re cheering on their potential demise…

            sounds very FOX!

          2. James McCarthy Avatar
            James McCarthy

            Ah, the typical and inevitable, “Why dontcha go back to where you came from” killer retort. The data indicates about 124,000 per year on average. I’m certain the Big Apple can handle it even despite my absence. Still, NY is not on the crapper list for violent crime. Must mean you are out of ammo.

          3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            The current metro area population of New York City in 2022 is 18,867,000, a 0.23% increase from 2021. The metro area population of New York City in 2021 was 18,823,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020. The metro area population of New York City in 2020 was 18,804,000, a 0.01% decline from 2019.

          4. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Perhaps we can start a go fund me page to buy him a one way bus ticket back to the big apple. Or maybe just ask one of Abbott’s buses to stop and pick him up as they pass through.

      2. James A. Bacon Avatar
        James A. Bacon

        Only 762 murders in Chicago so far this year. You’re right, Larry, conservatives are making way too big a deal of the situation there.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          It’s bad, I do not dispute that but it’s not as bad as some other cities and more importantly , it’s often associated with poverty more so than “progressive” policies:

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/888b26c150c8266fa0a99797147053d8a4bb0a702bef1b7df65699858dc961b7.jpg

    3. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      I could not help but notice that every city listed on the graphs posted by LarrytheG , except Stockton, CA, is run by democrats; and the overwhelming majority of them have been run by democrats for many years.

      At least one of them has been run by democrats for more than 100 years – New Orleans. That city has been run by democrats since 1874, which means that in one year and one month, democrats will have been in continuous political control of the city of New Orleans for 150 years.

      1. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        On lists linked on BR a couple of months ago 98 of the 100 US cities with the highest crime rates were Dem run. One was Repub run, and One was non partisan (Las Vegas),

        That’s not surprising considering that political affiliation is highly correlated with population density. Last numbers I saw were that the break point was at about 1,000 per square mile. Above that Dem, below that Repub.

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    WaPo has not suddenly discovered the increasing crime rate. They’ve reported on it consistently.

    But here’s the problem that Conservatives have with the facts:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b11c6cbb603f56dc7111593fc8b2f81a9e643c0bbc11a0bfd136dec7998a1b9.jpg

    so the trend is up – true – but look back at the crime rate in years prior.

    So, this is what Bacon and company do with their narratives sometimes to make their claims:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19f297d88b06bacdc306025e0ac316f19430eaa3ddcd9539b554d6b5f694e699.jpg

    Yes, there is black on black crime – and a lot of it is driven by folks who have no education and no means of support so they drift into illegal activities to make money. People will focus on Fentanyl but it’s not that drug per se – it’s just that drug in this time frame. Before it was Cocaine… remember? We had a “Cocaine” problem … before that it was Heroin… and before that….

    So poor black folks do indeed kill each other … shocking..

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      “So poor black folks do indeed kill each other … shocking..”

      You sound like not only do you accept this state of affairs, you expect it.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        It’s what happens when you have poverty not only in this country but other countries with even worse murder rates.

        When you grow up to be 21 and you have no education and you live in a poverty-stricken neighborhood with gangs all around – you do become part of it.

        People forget Chicago back during prohibition, Talk about crime and murders!

        I don’t “expect” nor “accept” it but until we have the political will to address the root causes – it’s what will continue to happen.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c898849c1e851b49ce2aa8e58627bb556f4e0f17a1acafc809e76e0515482e6.jpg

          So do we think it’s also “black on black” murders in these other countries?

        2. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          Care to educate yourself?

          “Many people believe that economic depressions and recessions cause crime, and that economic booms are associated with low crime rates. History, however, tells a different story.”

          https://blog.lsupress.org/do-hard-times-cause-crime-the-lessons-of-history/

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            He’s talking of economic conditions. I’m talking about individuals who have little or no education and little opportunity for a good career job.

            It don’t matter what the economic conditions are – he’s got the same problem no matter.

            Poverty more often than not leads to crime. And if you are “competing” against others, and guns are available – you do what you must.

            That’s not only in Chicago or the US but around the world.

            When you need money to live and you don’t have a job – you then drift into criminal behaviors buying and selling illegal things that lie outside the traditional economy.

            Once that’s is your “career” , you don’t return to non-crime work because the economy is “good”.

      2. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        Of course, in his simplistic analysis, Larry the G leaves out the fact that there are almost twice as many white people than black people living in poverty in this country.

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Yep. I know a few. As far as I know they’ve never murdered anyone.

      3. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        People forget Chicago back during prohibition, Talk about crime and murders! – LarrytheG

        Chicago during Prohibition
        1920-Pop.=2.701M; Murder Rate/100K = 10.5
        1930-Pop.=3.376M; Murder Rate/100K= 14.6

        Chicago Today
        2010-Pop.=2.695M; Murder Rate/100K=16.0
        2020-Pop.=2.746M; Murder Rate/100K=28.0

        Oops!

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          I read a theory that most of the violent crime in Chicago is perpetrated by a small number of individuals–less than 1000.

          It’s also interesting to note that in Chicago, just as in DC, criminals are robbing mailbox keys from mail carriers.

          1. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            I agree with you in principle, although I think the small number is probably more like 10,000. That’s still only o.37% of the population.

          2. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            10K might not be a bad estimate for the number of people with really profound mental illness too. A finite group to identify and treat to protect the other 340M of us without abridging the Constitution.

          3. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            10K might not be a bad estimate for the number of people with really profound mental illness too. A finite group to identify and treat to protect the other 340M of us without abridging the Constitution.

          4. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Same things reported for D.C., Baltimore and Richmond. Very small numbers of people shooting many others. Richmond’s mayor estimated a dozen or so. He also reported most shootings are in about a half square mile of a 61 square mile city.

            Richmond seems to know who and where the shooters are. Too bad we can’t get those guys off the streets.

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Yeah, conservatives are awful people for pointing out that after 30 years of declining and stable homicides to focus on the first significant uptick and worry that the trend could be heading the other way.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Cherrypicking and gaslighting, yep.

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Uh yep! Murder is up. Crime in general is down, but oowee, man that murder rate is skyrocketing. Not garrote murders. Not knifings. Not even defenestration. Guns. Ooh baby, we are popping caps in each other like Olin can’t run out of little lead pills.

    1. Nathan Avatar
      Nathan

      “Crime in general is down…”

      That’s not necessarily true. In areas where the police and prosecutors are known to only take action for violent crime, other crimes are often severely underreported and thus do not show up in the data.

      “Not knifings.”

      The FBI reports that 88,587 violent crimes were committed in 2021 using knives or other “cutting instruments.” That’s hardly an insignificant number.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        is it true, for instance, in Chicago, that criminal prosecutions are different and different parts of town and that explains the differences in crime rates?

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/888b26c150c8266fa0a99797147053d8a4bb0a702bef1b7df65699858dc961b7.jpg

    2. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Actually, this past June the State Police released a report that said murder and other violent crimes are up, while robberies and burglaries are down.

      Drug arrests have plummeted, which is to be expected after Virginia essentially legalized marijuana.

      Overall, crime is down but that reduction is mostly accounted for by the reduction in drug arrests.

    3. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Actually, this past June the State Police released a report that said murder and other violent crimes are up, while robberies and burglaries are down.

      Drug arrests have plummeted, which is to be expected after Virginia essentially legalized marijuana.

      Overall, crime is down but that reduction is mostly accounted for by the reduction in drug arrests.

    4. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Actually, this past June the State Police released a report that said murder and other violent crimes are up, while robberies and burglaries are down.

      Drug arrests have plummeted, which is to be expected after Virginia essentially legalized marijuana.

      Overall, crime is down but that reduction is mostly accounted for by the reduction in drug arrests. Removing crimes from the Code of Virginia is an excellent way to reduce the crime rate.

  5. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    And even in acknowledging it, they made it all about “gun crime”. What about the +/-30% of homicides that do not involve a firearm in any way?

  6. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “When The Washington Post acknowledges that violent crime is surging”

    Not really what they are saying here:

    “The rate of killings rose nearly 30 percent in 2020 and remained high through the following year, according to a Washington Post database created to track the toll. Even now, as the bloodshed has slowed , the homicide rate outpaces pre-pandemic levels.”

    1. Nathan Avatar
      Nathan

      “Even now, as the bloodshed has slowed , the homicide rate outpaces pre-pandemic levels.”

      The homicide rate is still up after decades of decline.

      Additionally, I’m not sure that the association with the pandemic is the most accurate way to describe what happened in 2020. I seem to recall a lot of violence unrelated to the pandemic that year.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        The pandemic will be lucrative data/research fodder for scientists, amateur “analysts” and sundry wannabes for decades…..

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        The pandemic will be lucrative data/research fodder for scientists, amateur “analysts” and sundry wannabes for decades…..

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Fair enough. I’ll edit the post to say “has surged” rather than “is surging.”

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        It still will be a negative focus narrow, culture-war type perspective rather than a more objective wide scope perspective.

        We are not going to hell in a handbasket no matter how fervently some may wish to “prove” the error of our ways.

        1. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          As reported in Slate:

          The plastic cases for merchandise have become a symbol of a society in decline, even if the precise shape of the problem isn’t exactly transparent. Shoplifting is definitely cutting into store margins. Rite Aid says the problem cost it $5 million last quarter in New York City; Walgreens claimed to have closed stores in San Francisco as a result. You can be skeptical of companies playing the blame game, but retail experts are certain: If shoplifting weren’t chipping into profits, you wouldn’t see plastic cases at all. “It’s a solution of last resort,” says Joe Budano, whose company sells the cases to retailers. “As soon as you lock something up, you’re going to see a 5 to 25 percent reduction in sales.” Big pharmacy is a data-driven business, and if enough product disappears from the store, that product goes in a case.

          https://slate.com/business/2022/11/cvs-walgreens-shoplifting-plexiglass-barriers-pharmacies.html

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            You think this is a US-only problem?

          2. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            It’s definitely a problem in large Democrat run cities.

            I live in rural Virginia where generational poverty is widespread. I have not observed any change in retail stores to protect against shoplifting, in spite of rampant inflation that is devastating to low income families.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            You think this is not a problem in other countries?

          4. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            Why do you keep asking me that question?

            The focus of the blog is Virginia and to some extent the U.S.

            The topic is about crime in the U.S.

            I live in the U.S., vote in the U.S., and am concerned about crime in the U.S. I’m also trying to stay on topic.

            Please stop asking me to comment about crime elsewhere.

            Thanks you.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The focus is Virginia but we deal with realities and facts and when we try to show Virginia is unique (or Chicago) with respect to crime and we attribute it to “liberals” we go off the rails with right wing idiocy.

            Other countries have the same crime problems we do, especially in cities and I’m pretty sure that Democrats are not in charge of those cities so what’s the difference?

          6. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            I live in rural Virginia where generational poverty is widespread. I have not observed any change in retail stores to protect against shoplifting…

            So do I, and neither have I.

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Still reads the same…🤷‍♂️

    3. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      But the “bloodshed” hasn’t slowed in Virginia. There have been increases in both homicides and violent crimes in Virginia.

      https://fredericksburg.today/2022/07/03/virginias-annual-crime-analysis-now-available-on-virginia-state-police-website/

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        The rate of increase has slowed. We saw a 23% murder rate increase between 2019 and 2020 and a 5% increase between 2020 and 2021.

        1. WayneS Avatar
          WayneS

          Bringing calculus into the discussion does not change the fact that the murder rate has increased for two years running. Thus, the “bloodshed” has NOT slowed.

  7. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    Question for someone with access to the Wash Post data. Where is that dot just north of Richmond. On the map it looks like Hanover or Louisa, but neither of them seems a likely locale for elevated homicide rates.

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      I don’t have access to the data, but if you’re talking about the small purple dot, then I’d guess it’s Fredericksburg, with dots for Dumfries and Manassas north of that.

      1. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        On the larger scale map there are 3 smaller dots around Richmond, 2 to the south, one of which I’d guess is Chesterfield County. The one I was curious about was the one slightly to the northwest.

        Expect you’re right on the ones further north. Tks.

        1. WayneS Avatar
          WayneS

          Oh, okay. That one might be Ashland. Ashland’s overall crime rate is slightly higher than Norfolk’s.

          But that’s just the town – I do not think it includes the surrounding County of Hanover..

          1. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Ashland is small, and as the Center of the Universe does not have a high violent crime rate, although shoplifting near the 95 exit is chronic. Hanover County itself has a low crime rate. I guess it’s likely Henrico, Richmond bleeding into the closer in burbs. Hence my curiosity.

          2. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            Upon further reflection, you are probably correct.

            It ain’t Louisa, that’s for sure.

          3. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            The Wash Post’s usual uninformative crude graphic does not help figure it out.

            That other dot south east of Richmond is curious too. It gets rural pretty quick as you get out of town along the river. What do you suppose the lonely dot in West Virginia is, John Brown’s raid on Harper’s Ferry?

      2. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        Dumfries and Manassas are both in Prince William County, who once had a prosecutor named Paul Ebert who sent more criminals to death row than any other prosecutor in the entire state.

        There are a couple of ways to look at that.

        Is it that he was a very effective prosecutor?

        Or is it that Prince William County (and the two cities of Manassas and Manassas Park) are (and have been for years) a very dysfunctional place with lots of homicidal criminals ?

        Or a little of both?

        I’ve lived in Prince William County for 34 years, and I have very little love for this place. That people like Paul Warner Powell were born here and called this place home is more fodder for my dislike.

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