As Virginians head to the polls today, traffic congestion is the number one issue on the minds of Northern Virginia voters, according to a recent poll conducted by the Dulles Corridor Rail Association. Illegal immigration is number two. Presumably those concerns will be motivating voters in key battleground districts up for grabs in today’s election for the state Senate and the House of Delegates.
The poll, conducted by iQ Research & Consulting, included a sample of 400 Northern Virginians. One of the questions asked: “From the following list of issues, which ONE do you see as the most important one to be addressed?”
1. Increase in home foreclosures……………………. 8%
2. Crime and drugs………………………………….. 9%
3. Traffic congestion ……………………………… 38%
4. Education ……………………………………….. 8%
5. Illegal immigration ………………………………22%
6. Property taxes …………………………………… 5%
7. Unemployment…………………………………… 2%
8. Other ……………………………………………. 2%
9. None …………………………………………….. 1%
10. Combination ……………………………………. 6%
As a Richmonder, I have absolute no feel for the public sentiment in Northern Virginia. But I would suggest that this list of priorities would tend to favor the elephant clan. Traffic congestion is clearly the number one issue. Call that a toss-up. Nobody’s really happy with the legislation passed this year, but at least the Rs can claim they passed something.
Illegal immigration, the number two issue, should cut decisively in favor of the Rs, or it would if so many Ds hadn’t started talking tough on illegal immigration. For example, Albert Pollard, a Democrat campaigning in a tight race for a Fredericksburg-area senate seat, is running TV ads in the Richmond media market that proclaim him a staunch foe of illegal immigration. Still, the Dems are Johnny-come-latelies to this issue. Advantage: Rs.
Crime & drugs traditionally favors the Rs, while education traditionally favors the Ds. Both are garnering about the same intensity of interest among NoVa voters, thus canceling each other out. The “increase in home foreclosures” doesn’t cut one way or the other, as it is not affected by state-level political decisions.
The only other issue that registers on the voter radar is property taxes, which I boldly predicted last year would be a major factor in this election and clearly has not. (So much for my prognostications!) The tax issue generally tilts toward the Rs, though, so this might add a sliver of support to elephant clan candidates.
Unemployment — a concern in Northern Virginia? Surely you gest.
All told, I don’t see the state/local issues matrix hurting the Rs at all. If general disillusionment with President Bush spills over into local politics, we could see a Republican rout. Otherwise, the Rs are likely to outperform their miserable expectations…. For whatever that’s worth.
Which is not much. As noted in previous blog postings, no election result is likely to dislodge the rule of special interests. The forces of Business As Usual, also known as the Axis of Taxes, have covered their bets through giant campaign contributions, and they will remain in power behind the scenes no matter which political tribe wins today.