What Fresh Hell Awaits Virginia Today?

by Kerry Dougherty

Shhhh. Listen carefully.

Hear that? That’s the sound of 8.5 million Virginia sphincters tightening as we anticipate how Gov. Ralph Northam will punish us today for a surge in COVID-19 infections.

We deserve it. The virus is spreading and it has to be our fault. It couldn’t possibly be that a respiratory virus is damned near impossible to stop.

As Virginia waits to learn what fresh hell is waiting for us at Northam’s presser we get to experience an American dictatorship, where all power rests in a single individual.

What liberties will His Excellency stomp on today?

“A source familiar with the governor’s announcement (today) claimed that Virginia will not lockdown or shut down,” reports The Richmond Times-Dispatch.

No lockdowns? What then?

Curfews are a possibility. Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina has ordered his citizens to stay in their houses between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. and Northam does like to keep up with his neighbors.

His Democratic neighbors, that is. He loathes Tennessee and blames them for our surge. Perhaps he’ll announce the construction of a border wall through Bristol.

Northam might close indoor dining and kill off the locally owned restaurants that are struggling to stay afloat with reduced capacity, shortened hours and social distancing.

Hey, Andrew Cuomo did that in New York and HE won an Emmy.

Then again, Northam might order us to wear masks outdoors, not that there’s any science supporting that. That’s popular with Democrats. A couple of governors have forced folks to forego fresh air and we’ve seen Joe Biden wearing a mask while biking.

Such an order would be widely ignored. Except in Northern Virginia, where they’re already driving alone in cars with masks on. Meanwhile, the virus rages there as it does everywhere else.

(Fairfax has a testing positivity rate of 10.9 percent. By contrast, Virginia Beach, where almost no one wears a mask outside, is at 10.3 percent.)

The governor could order us to wear masks in our own homes and then send the police to peer in windows and see who’s obeying. That would be fun.

Northam may ban Christmas caroling. Not that anyone’s in the mood this year, anyway.

Or he could order folks not to socialize with anyone outside of their households. Good luck with that one.

Fact is, governors – including Northam – have no idea how to stop this virus.

Still, they believe they have to do something so that when the virus begins to recede on its own or through herd immunity brought on by nature and the vaccine, they can claim credit.

Despite a lot of yapping about “following the science” and the “data” almost none of the rules that have been slapped on formerly free people are anything more than arbitrary actions by dizzy knob turners.

For instance, where was the science behind Northam’s ban on sitting on the beach earlier this year? You know, when he graciously “permitted” Virginians to walk, run or fish from the sand. But there was to be no sitting.

And where is the data and science that put 5-year-olds in masks a couple of weeks ago? Go ahead. I’ll wait.

Look, we are closing in on 300 days since “15 days to slow the spread.” In March we were told to put our lives on hold for two weeks while hospitals prepared for the onslaught of patients.

Despite a spike in cases and hospitalizations, as of yesterday Virginia had 3,271 empty hospital beds and another 3,695 available as surge beds. ICUs are at 78 percent capacity and only 30 percent of ventilators are in use (only 22 percent of them are being used by Covid patients).

Best of all, not a single hospital in Virginia reports having difficulty obtaining PPE.

Still, as Democratic governors across the country play keep-up-with-the-despots Northam clearly wants to be a player.


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44 responses to “What Fresh Hell Awaits Virginia Today?”

  1. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    As I left the Y 15 minutes ago, the line was, “See you tomorrow, if the Governor lets me.”

  2. idiocracy Avatar

    “Ernest goes to Richmond”

    A modern horror movie.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead V

      Which Ernst? Ernst P. Worrell or Ernst T. Bass?

      1. idiocracy Avatar

        Ernest P. Worrell, Vern.

    2. Matt Adams Avatar

      I loved those movies as a kid Jim Varney was a gifted actor and comedian.

  3. I haven’t commented here in quite some time, primarily because there is seemingly no evidence to convince King Ralph’s cheering section here that he only cares about control and his personal political relevance. Absent his COVID emergency declaration he would be hiding out from shame related to his racism and lying problems.

    Any reasonable attention to science (including economics, psychology, and public health beyond a single virus – COVID) would support a presumption of crime against citizens of the Commonwealth by the Northam administration. I am prepared to be flamed by the Northam loyalists here, but am almost beyond caring what they think. In my mind Northam is a tyrant, guilty of crimes against humanity.

    By the way related to Ralph’s fake concern about “cases”, has anyone asked the governor what the Cycle Threshold standard is for Virginia COVID testing. Most labs use between 40 to 45 amplification cycles. Honest scientists who are adept at interpreting PCR testing (including the developer of PCR testing) assert that results of PCR testing are not credible above 25 cycles (that pesky science issue). Additionally, PCR testing can at best test for the presence of the virus, but cannot quantify the viral load. Again, quite a few credible virologists believe that up to 85% of “positive” patients are not ill at all and not likely to get ill.

    I guess that our governor either doesn’t know the science or doesn’t care.

    1. idiocracy Avatar

      I was wondering when someone was going to bring up the Cycle Threshold “standard” for testing.

      I put standard in quotes because there doesn’t seem to be one.

    2. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      Useful. Explain further, please. Wouldn’t that basically fit with the observation, obvious for a long time, that lots of people who get exposed never get symptoms? Yet they still develop antibodies, etc.? Through all the ups and downs the actual IFR has remained well below 1% overall, and below 0.1% for those under 55….I’ve always watched the hospital admissions as a better indicator than “cases.”

      1. mhwillett Avatar

        Here’s the link to the NYTimes article from 8/29/20 that provides more detail on this national testing debacle.
        “Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t be.”
        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          I think that article is a little dated now but for anyone looked for exactitude and certainty even from science, it’s not to be.

          Science does not have all the answers and never will but they are continuously gaining more information.

          A certain amount of common sense and estimation is required in combination with the science.

          Arguing whether it’s 10 or 20 or 50 in a concregate setting is sorta like arguing if one pack or two or three leads to lung cancer or how many ppm of what size particulates one has to inhale before it does measureable damage to the lungs.

          1. mhwillett Avatar

            Not dated. Buried.
            The important information here is that PRC tests give positive results in up to 90 percent of cases where the test taker is not contagious and doesn’t require contact tracing. These are the overly sensitive tests that governments, schools and sports teams are relying on to make decisions.

        2. Steve Haner Avatar
          Steve Haner

          Thanks for the link. Learned something.

  4. Again, I would suggest that the entirety of the Good Doctor Governor’s strategy to date has been the textbook definition of “arbitrary and capricious”. Although he would have you believe that his actions are science based he refuses to provide the studies or state what science they are based on.

    For those too young to remember, there was a time that DDT was deemed safe for application to humans, Asbestos lauded as the wonder fiber and Thalidomide safe for use while pregnant. I can vividly recall running out and playing in the fog laid down by the mosquito trucks in Colonial Heights (or is it still Colonial Whites) as a child in the 60’s and 70’s (which might explain my behavior to some) and using asbestos pads in many science lab projects at school.

    As I noted previously, his bridge to far may well end up being the notice of violation issued to the Bedford County Board of Supervisors. It is one thing to curb alcohol sales (everyone knows COVID is more dangerous as you approach midnight) shut down a health club or revoke a restaurant’s health certificate, it is something else entirely when the Health Department is used as a political bludgeon against a County whose policies or actions the Good Doctor doesn’t care for.

    Given the actions against Bedford County (which I suspect may now be used as a model against other “Conservative” enclaves), we can now add the open meetings requirements contained in the Code of Virginia, the right of citizens to address their elected officials and the sovereign immunity of local governments to the list of things Gov. Gump believes he can bury and ignore at will.

    Funny, I didn’t see the Health Department issuing civil or criminal violations to those that organized marches, protests or Sen. Lucas when she joined with more than 25 to pull down a statue. What will he do when the Senate meets in person and is the local mall Santa in jeopardy of jail time.

    Today will like mark little more than another example of Coonman’s situational ethics.

    At some point, those with enough balls (I would suggest the Bedford Coutny Supervisors to start), who really want to have some fun, should challenge the Governor’s edicts on the grounds that they are, at least in part, arbitrary and capricious. In the case of Bedford, there is no question they have the standing, representation and presumably the finances to advance the suit. Hell, I would start a GoFundMe page to support their efforts.

  5. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Kelly is free to complain about COVID restrictions and incursions on her liberty. What I wonder is why she limits her criticisms to “Democratic governors across the country [who] play keep-up-with-the-despots .” She might want to look at the restrictions ordered by governors in Utah and North Dakota, for example, two deep-red states:
    Utah–
    Masks required indoors and outdoors if one is within 6 ft. of anyone from another household; required of all patrons, employees, and customers of private businesses.
    Casual social gatherings only with people you live with (effective until Nov. 23)
    Cancellation of all school extracurricular activities
    College students must test weekly for COVID

    North Dakota
    Masks required in public areas indoors and outdoors where social distancing not possible
    Bars and restaurants limited to 50% capacity; no service after 10 p.m.
    Large venues limited to 25% capacity
    Violations subject to fines and subsequent violators subject to jail time

  6. TooManyTaxes Avatar
    TooManyTaxes

    I read an article about a restaurant owner in Los Angeles being shutdown for even outside dining. Meanwhile, a film company was allowed to set up and film an outdoor dining site for the movie down the block. But then Hollywood gives big bucks to Democrats.

  7. LarrytheG Avatar

    Yep. Trying to paint Northam as outside the mainstream of all of the state in general is a continuing tactic by some here in BR like Kerry but it don’t wash and comes across as totally biased and partisan even when many other states, including those with GOP governors are not much different than Virginia.

    Maybe half, give or take, of citizens are not having the concept of Govt-mandated public health restrictions. It’s not in their DNA aparently so most of the Govs are trying to thread the needle realizing that anything that comes close to sounding like “lock down” is going to get too many rumps in an uproar.

    Northam is not much different. Gawd Forbid he be as combative as Cuomo or as dumb as Noem.

  8. Dick and Larry,

    “C’mon, Man” Sorry, men. .. Can’t you guys at least try to refute the posts addressing the lack of data? In Dick’s case, all he seems able to do is the standard Tu Quoque crap. “Oh, they’re doing restrictions in these other states, why not criticize them.” Because, Dick, this is supposedly a blog about Virginia. I have no problem criticizing those other states. But surely you see that because they’re doing it does not mean it’s ok for Virginia to do it, the implied argument of your post.

    Of course, in usual fashion, Larry doesn’t even try to mount a countervailing argument about the lack of data. He just claims “BIAS!!!” and then goes with his standard straw man stuff (painting Northam as”outside the mainstream). Where did anyone try to paint Northam as outside the mainstream?

    Really weak, guys. Do you feel obliged to defend the indefensible use of so-called “data” for the sake of carrying the flag? C’mon, Man!

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      re: “lack of data” – is the standard the opponents across the country are using – whether it’s Maryland or New York or California.

      It’s not specific to Virginia but the opponents want to make it state by state so they can directly attack the Governor specifically.

      The “science” basically says that it’s a virulent infecious disease and we need to protect ourselves by using measures to mitigate. They simply do not know down t the micron – the blow-by-blow science but to ignore it is just ignorant and stupid and to attack leaders trying to deal with it the best they can – even more so.

      1. First off, I’m having difficulty figuring out what you said in the first two paragraphs.

        Secondly,…all you can say is that science has said it’s a “virulent disease and we have to protect ourselves.” ???!!! Really? You could have knocked me over with a feather. You’re making me feel like that stupid guy in the commercial who didn’t know he could sell his life insurance. (“Who knew?”) I just had no idea that this was so. I guess I failed to miss that point.

        And what exactly do we do to protect ourselves? Isn’t that the point of the exercise and where they fail to follow any science at all? Really, Larry. What a lame response. Try some other diversion from the point.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          When “science” says that a hurricane is going to hit land – anyone expecting an exact lat/long and time is living in la la land.

          Ditto with rainfall or snow or floods… you name it.. expecting the exact temperature for tomorrow from NOAA is the standard now , apparently.

          The same is true of a LOT of “science”.

          And a lot of people with common sense understand and accept this.

          The “skeptics” these days tend to be that way on a number of issues.

          1. You still don’t answer the objections posted to the blog. It looks like you are confusing “science” with “data”. Nor do you answer the question, what do we do to protect ourselves that follows the data. Instead, you give vague distracting answers about weather and temperature etc that have no bearing on the discussion. What do you consider the the exact data points driving the restrictions?

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            Where does “data” come from Crazy?

            does it just appear out of nowhere?

            Doesn’t a fair amount of it come from science?

            “what do we do to protect ourselves?”

            Ask that question on a variety of things that could
            harm you and you depend on science for “data” and
            information to use in your decisions.

            Does “science” tell you if it is okay to work with someone
            who has tuberulosis or other infectious disease?

            Does it give you precise information about how far away you should be or how long you can be in the same space, etc?

            Science will not always give you exact and precise information especially when dealing with something that is new and they are still learning about it.

            If some folks are making it mandatory that science provides exact information or else you won’t believe it or follow it, good luck, the real world doesn’t always work that way.

            Think it is okay to be around “RoundUp” or eat the nitrites used in processed meats?

            Most folks understand that it’s not just 6 feet or a mask or 50 folks – they get it and they DO WANT some level of rules for
            going into public places.

            When WalMart or Lowes or CVS says that a mask is REQUIRED – do they really have to provide the “science” to convince you to wear the mask?

    2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      One, here is your data: On Wednesday, the state record its largest single new daily cases of COVID. On Wednesday, hospitalizations hit an all-time high. The Virginia Beach health director is concerned about hospitals exceeding capacity. Although there are hospital beds available statewide, hospitals are concerned about the availability of staff to tend to people in those beds. https://www.wavy.com/news/covid-19-hospitalizations-hit-a-new-high-in-virginia/
      https://www.dailypress.com/news/health/vp-nw-northam-covid-restrictions-thanksgiving-20201210-scnplmoedrdo3gksjaisr2anxa-story.html

      As for my falling back on the Tu Quoque argument, I do it only when Kerry (or others) explicitly restrict their criticisms to Democratic governors. I am just pointing out that Republican governors have instituted similar restrictions. I am fine with limiting the argument to the restrictions, but the criticisms should be applicable to all the governors. By the way, I do not see you raising the same objection when Don Rippert lavishes praise on Larry Hogan while trashing Northam.

      1. djrippert Avatar

        Larry Hogan explains his policies in light of the facts in Maryland. He is especially detailed in describing what has been learned through contact tracing regarding how the infection spreads. He then discusses his actions in light of that data. Whether his actions are right or wrong – nobody knows. However, he speaks to Marylanders as adults and tries to be as transparent as time allows in explaining why he does what he does.

        Ralph Northam obviously considers the citizens of Virginia beneath him. He spends no time explaining the basis for his actions. When asked, point blank, by David Faber to define the numbers which will guide his actions he refuses to do so. There is no hint of predictability which only makes life worse for the small business owners who have to live with NoPlan Northam’s random ideas.

        Yesterday, Random Ralph announced a new set of arbitrary restrictions. He implemented a curfew between midnight and 5 am. A month ago he ordered bars closed at 10 pm. Can anybody explain how a curfew starting two hours after the bars have closed will materially affect the spread of COVID-19? Nothing is open at midnight. Not restaurants, not bars. Maybe a 7-11 but not much more. Who is Random Ralph trying to stop from spreading the disease between midnight and 5 am?

        He lowered “public gatherings” from 25 people to 10 people. What are some of the “public gatherings” that will be affected by this new rule? I guess a pick up basketball game is ok but a pickup flag football game is not. Did he relate the “science” that says 25 is now dangerous but 10 is safe?

        You have to wear masks in all indoor areas shared with others – public and private. That will be immediately and totally ignored in private residences. Besides, what happened to the “science” of social distancing that defined a 6 foot separation as safe? Is that no longer true? How about 10 feet? 20 feet? You can’t eat through a mask so is indoor dining effectively closed or is that another exception to Random Ralph’s Ridiculous Rules?

        I went fishing yesterday on an 18 foot boat with two friends. We were in Maryland waters. None of us wore masks because all of us know each other and know we take sensible precautions. Does Random Ralph really think people outside on the bay will wear masks on boats?

        I’ll go golfing tomorrow. I have no intention of wearing as mask although I’ll be within 6 feet of my 3 golfing partners on some occasions. Show me the science or the data that demonstrates outdoor golfing to be hazardous and I’ll put on the mask.

        I downloaded the Virginia COVID-19 tracking app to my iPhone almost as soon as it was available. Guess what? I have never once been in contact with an infected person according to the app. Let me guess – the app is ineffective. Just like our governor.

        It sure looks like Northam doesn’t know what the hell he is doing but he thinks people expect him to do something. So he pops up every few weeks with another set of ill-conceived regulations.

  9. VDOTyranny Avatar

    Funny, actually sad, how the minority only cares liberty when their not in charge.

  10. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Plandemic, or why the Right has truly gone insane…

    https://plandemicvideo.com/plandemic-part-2-indoctrination-2/

    You guys will love it.

  11. LarrytheG Avatar

    and Nutty Buddies used to be an ice cream treat!

    😉

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      I have an “internet nutty buddy” based on a once common interest. He began going over the falls back in 2003. I guess it’s complete. He is convinced in a “deep state” and that this pandemic was completely planned, that Trump had the courage to stand up to save us.

      I dunno. Maybe most of those here feel the same. If they don’t, they’re headed that way and they need to take care because the fall into this kind of paranoia makes Niagara look like a coy pond airator.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead V

        Look at the bright side. One thing we all have in common. Nobody gets out alive.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Uh yep. And nearly 300,000 got pushed out.

  12. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Doing nothing has worked so well.
    Not causal, not yet reviewed, but hey…
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.16.20213892v2

    1. Did you read the report or just its conclusions? I think there is a very good reason why it has not been reviewed.

      From the report: “The means of COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 were 49.7 for Republican states, 50.6 for Mixed States, and 69.0 for Democratic states.” This is a their raw, unadjusted figure. 69.0 – 49.7 = 19.3 deaths per 1000,000 HIGHER in democrat-run states than in republican-run states.

      These “independent” “researchers” then proceeded to make convoluted adjustments to those figures based on various “demographics” to show that the death rates in democrat-run states are actually 15 per 100,.000 LOWER than in republican-run states.

      It is amazing what can be accomplished by people who are willing to manipulate data until their statistical analysis returns the results the were looking for.

      Democrat, republican or otherwise, that study is not worth the electrons that were utilized to upload it to the internet.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        Convoluted? You mean accounting for the evident vulnerability of given populations, and their existing comorbidities?

      2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        Oh, and removing outliers… never done. Bad form.

        1. What outliers? New York? If you are specifically investigating the differences between republican-run states and democrat-run states on a particular issue and you exclude the state of New York (no matter how bad it looks for democrats) then you are NOT engaging in an unbiased study.

          In a study with parameters as set-up by these investigators there can be no “outliers”. There are 50 states and 50 states need to be included in the study in order for it to be valid.

          1. Matt Adams Avatar

            Seems like an apt time for the phrase “figures don’t lie, but liars figure”.

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Pitching an outlier, NY, and Maryland (mixed) should also have been accompanied by pitching the outlier in the GOP set too, since it would sway the other way. Hopefully, a reviewer will point that out.

            See Duda & Hart.

          3. There should be no outliers thrown out in a study such as this. The researchers were studying a specifically defined population using data for which the values were already known.

            Throwing away “outliers” is really only appropriate when collecting heretofore unknown data from a random population.

    2. djrippert Avatar

      And California’s endless lockdowns prevented a resurgence in that state. Oh, what? The California regulations didn’t prevent a resurgence? All that mask wearing didn’t really work? California is in worse shape than most other places? Hmmm.

  13. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Surpassed WWII combat deaths. By month’s end we should overtake Gettysburg’s best daily number.

    So, are the GOP governors just indifferent, or depravedly so?

    1. VDOTyranny Avatar

      We’ve got to remove the outliers first, at least the ones that don’t comport with the desired results.

      Had a statistics professor at W&M try to convince our MBA class that elections should be based on statistical sampling. A lot of theories sound good in the ivory tower, then humans get involved with their lies, damn lies, and statistics. When it comes to statistics, need to be more concerned about the out-liars.

    2. djrippert Avatar

      Worst COVID-19 death rates (per capita) by state:

      1. New Jersey (Democratic governor)
      2. New York (Democratic governor)
      3. Massachusetts (Republican governor)
      4. Connecticut (Democratic governor)
      5. North Dakota (Republican governor)
      6. Louisiana (Democratic governor)
      7. Rhode Island (Democratic governor)
      8. Mississippi (Republican governor)
      9. South Dakota (Republican governor)
      10. Illinois (Democratic governor)

      6 Democrats, 4 Republicans.

      Facts are stubborn things.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        Time wounds all heels.

      2. LarrytheG Avatar

        Where is Virginia on that list?

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