Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Was Virginia’s 2021 Election a Parental Pulse or a Silver Surge?

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

Walmart greeter Mikki in South Dakota is 99 years old.

Yes, education was a big deal but how about inflation’s impact on fixed income retirees?

by Chris Saxman

Results of a newly released study by TargetSmart, “a Democratic political data and data services firm,” suggest that we should rethink the conventional wisdom and push back on the social media/cable news narratives about the 2021 election.

NOW before everyone hits the reply button that because this is a Democratic firm and they are just trying to improperly turn the 2021 narrative to benefit Democrats in the upcoming midterms — just stop.

The news here is WORSE for Democrats for the midterms, but kudos to TargetSmart for following the data. As the old saying goes — in order to solve a problem, you first have to admit you have a problem.

Today’s Richmond Times Dispatch ran a Bloomberg editorial which provides context: “Piecemeal reform won’t solve U.S. retirement crisis.”

Yet many Americans face the prospect of great financial strain and even poverty in old age, because they lack the resources to support themselves after they stop working.

A retirement crisis. The largest voting generation in history has to deal with almost double-digit inflation in lower turnout midterms. #WreckingBall
Social Security is the Third Rail of American politics for a reason.

Here we go with the TargetSmart article link: “The authors of the study and article call it “the Silver Surge.” New Data Showing ‘Silver Surge’ of Senior Voters Raises Questions About Conventional Wisdom Facts from the article linked above:”>Did Education Sway the VA Election? Maybe, but Probably Not.”
The reality is much more complex. As is often the case, conventional wisdom is too often formed before all the facts are available.

The authors of the study and article call it “the Silver Surge.”

New Data Showing ‘Silver Surge’ of Senior Voters Raises Questions About Conventional Wisdom

Facts from the article linked above:


Massive changes to say the least. 350k MORE seniors voted in the 2021 gubernatorial cycle than the 2016 presidential cycle.

Glenn Youngkin’s data and political operation were top-notch targeting voters from the very recent presidential cycle to turnout, but they had to have reasons to show up. Sure, education was obviously in the mix; but was the Silver Surge the reported Critical Race Theory-based Parent Surge that was all over the cable news excuse makers? Probably not.

A far more plausible explanation is the that the rising cost of living (inflation) was bumping up against fixed income realities.

Remember that Youngkin ran ads on the grocery tax cut long before Terry McAuliffe handed his Republican opponent a piñata bat the NOVA Chamber Debate.

“Glenn, would you be a dear and hit me with this while I double/triple/ quadruple/quintuple down on telling parents they don’t matter in the education of their children?”

Look at these charts and note WHEN the uptick in negative economic sentiment/inflation/Joe Biden disapproval starts:

(Note – long before the NOVA debate.)

Inflation starts moving over a year ago in Q1 2021:

Biden’s approval numbers lag inflation but it caught up and accelerated with the botched Afghanistan withdrawal.

COVID?

Might be time for some new messaging there.

(Side question – does everything have to be called a crisis to get our attention? #Yes)

Start with removing masks on airplanes maybe? Airline prices jumped 10% last month. Busy summer travel (hot crowded airports and planes) and mask mandates are going to create very cranky passengers/customers/voters.

Even the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is tapering.

Going to the grocery store and gas station are pretty much mandatory and those final tabs are really causing problems for people.

In 2021, education helped Virginia Republicans with a final push at the end, but the data suggest inflation was fueling a surge of seniors throughout the cycle.

The 2022 midterms will be settled in 209 days and that’s plenty of time for both parties to focus on solutions to both education and inflation. After all, come the fall voters will be talking about education – again.

For now – it’s inflation.

P.S. Education is #18 according to the recent Harvard/Harris poll.

Chris Saxman is executive director of Virginia FREE. This column is republished with permission from The Intersection.

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27 responses to “Was Virginia’s 2021 Election a Parental Pulse or a Silver Surge?”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Anyone who does taxes for seniors will tell you the only thing between hanging on by a string and total poverty is Social Security. And it does have a COLA. Many seniors, that is the primary retirement especially those seniors who worked for employers that did not provide retirement plans of if they did meager ones. Lots of todays seniors who never got college and ended up with wage jobs are in that boat.

    Sometimes I think the GOP gets into some bad policy catnip and thinks seniors could be convinced that social security is a bad thing.. and vote GOP to do something better… 😉

    The inflation thing is real but many of the other metrics are good, like unemployment and increasing wages (causing inflation), the housing market is red HOT not exactly a bad economy. The used car market is HOT, not exactly.

    still, the Dems are going to get creamed on the midterms… no question.

    but then the GOP will reliably overplay their hand and get tossed .

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      I was 25 when my boss said that Social Security would cave long before I would collect, that company sponsored plans will be gone, and that I should invest as much as I could for my retirement.

      Wrong, half-right, and bang-on! And, the best advice I ever received.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Some folks like the ROTH IRAs much better than the non-ROTH IRAs even though the ROTHs require post-tax contributions while the other IRAs allow pre-tax contributions then tax when taken out.

        Lower income folks who change jobs more frequently will often “cash” their IRAs when they change jobs not realizing the tax consequences of doing so. They simply are not very financially literate.

        Some folks do the opposite and when they retire they have 1099Rs out the wazoo!

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          My advice to young kids. You want a mix. BUT, if you are going to start, first start a fully taxable brokerage account. Most of the gains will be tax-free since each taxpayer gets $40,000 of LTCG&QD at 0%. Plus, this money will have NO restriction on use. To get $40K you have to have $500K in the account.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yep but this is because of the Govt, not the “free market”, right?

          2. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Well, considering both will be invested similarly, yes.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Well, in a true “free market”, the govt would not be involved at all in such “investments”, no?

            Have done taxes for cooks at Panda Express – can’t speak English but they know what a ROTH account is! 😉

    2. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Social Security was a fine idea bastardized by the ass-clown politicians we elect and send to Washington. It was intended to be a small take-out of income from the worker and the employer that would provide just enough income in retirement to prevent people from starving. As with everything else in Washington, the concept morphed into a full blown clown show with the proceeds borrowed by the federal government. Politicians, being corrupt buyers of votes, decided to pay out more than could be afforded given the demographics. Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neil, in a last gasp of bi-partisanship, funded the “trust fund” in an effort to stave off bankruptcy of the system. That plan ends in 2034 or so. After that, the mindless “pay go” approach of Social Security will result in a 75% pay out of advertised benefits. As that date gets closer and closer we’ll see what the trusties in DC do – raise payroll taxes again to keep SS afloat? Take it from a retirement plan to being another socialist wealth transfer?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        You’re still confused about SS. The only thing that is borrowed from is the Trust Fund not FICA taxes collected and delivered as SS benefits.

        The Trust Fund was created back during Ronald Reagan when FICA taxes were increased higher to build a fund that would be needed in the future as demographics changed.

        It was never going to go bankrupt – as you know since you said 75% of benefits. It will do that forever if there are no changes to deal with higher numbers of retirees living much longer than originally.

        SS will have to be changed, primarily to increase the retirement age. When SS was originally created – ” Life expectancy at birth in 1930 was indeed only 58 for men and 62 for women, and the retirement age was 65″

        https://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html

        You seem to think the increase in life expectancy is caused by ass-clowns instead of advances in medicine, etc.

        The NEED for SS won’t change , in fact, it will be needed even more as large numbers of workers now work as independent contractors or as wage workers who only receive minimal IRAs.

        In terms of the Trust fund itself, there are a dozen or more so-called trust funds the govt maintains – like one for airports or civil service retirement – and all of them are borrowed from rather than selling more treasury notes.

        You’re a businessman. I’m surprised you do not really understand this.

        From the get go, we knew Social Security would be affected by changes in life expectancy and that’s precisely why the Trust Fund was created in the first place.

        Also – SS is not a retirement fund, it’s an insurance annuity.

        It pays benefits for as long as you live no matter how much you put into it.

        It also pays if you become disabled.

        And it pays survivors, spouses and kids if you die.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          You are the one confused. There are multiple types of bankruptcy. The current Social Security financial situation will not allow it to pay out its advertised benefits after 2034. If a company issues bonds with a coupon rate of 10% but can’t make the full payments the company is in a form of bankruptcy. Until the clowns in Congress take some action or until Social Security admits it doesn’t have the funds to make its advertised payments it is in default.

          Any company advertising payments it knows that it can’t make would be sued for fraud.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Nope. ANY annuity will have to adjust to changing demographics over time.

            Private annuities change dynamically so that new customers annuity cost will be affected by current life-expectancy data.
            (just life life insurance rates are).

            Social Security does not change dynamically for each subscriber but rather over time for everyone – like when they increase the retirement age (and other changes).

            SS will never go bankrupt – as long as it collects FICA taxes but as life expectancy increases, the pay out has to be reduced to keep it in balance.

            The fix to that is to make changes to SS in response to increases in life expectancy.

            By the way – ALL pension plans ARE also affected by increased life expectancies – if they are annuities (that pay as long as you live but then stop when you die).

          2. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            First, your absurd contention that Social Security is some kind of risky annuity instead of a retirement system is contradicted by the first sentence of the home page of the Social Security Administration website:

            “Social Security is part of the retirement plan for almost every American worker.”

            https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/

            Second, the socialist buffoons who established Social Security (namely, FDR) never billed it as some kind of risky annuity that might or might not pay out.

            Here is what FDR said on Aug. 14, 1935 when he signed the Social Security Act:

            ““This law, too, represents a cornerstone in a structure which is being built but is by no means complete. It is a structure intended to lessen the force of possible future depressions. It will act as a protection to future Administrations against the necessity of going deeply into debt to furnish relief to the needy. The law will flatten out the peaks and valleys of deflation and of inflation. It is, in short, a law that will take care of human needs and at the same time provide the United States an economic structure of vastly greater soundness.”

            Has it prevented the US from going “deeply in debt”?

            Has it flattened out the “peaks and valleys of deflation and inflation”?

            Politicians have been lying to the American people about SS since its inception. They are still lying. And you are one of the sheep who listens to the lies and brays back the pablum you are getting.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            re: ” Has it prevented the US from going “deeply in debt”?”

            this is hilarious. You’re blaming Social Security for the debt when SS is one of very few programs that is self-funded and does not receive funding from general revenues?

            This is why I (and others) often comment here. The lies and disinformation that Conservatives spew – needs to be rebutted.

            You guys would kill SS and the ACA, medicaid expansion in a heartbeat.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            It’s not “risky” at all and the Formal name for it is : Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)

            it provides benefits not only for retirement, but disability and survivors – spouses and kids.

            once again, conservatives cannot seem to deal with facts and realities and instead promote disinformation.

            You’re an intelligent person DJ but you traffic in untruths and myths … when you know better.

    3. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Biden’s approval rating is down to 33%? Let’s be honest – the man wasn’t capable of being a president at 49 let alone 79. Now he’s accurately viewed as completely hopeless. He can’t read three paragraphs from a teleprompter without stumbling and bumbling. His administration has been a series of fiascos starting with his hapless withdrawal from Afghanistan. Then there’s the cackling half-wit he calls a Vice President. Completing the Trilogy of Despair is the 82 year old politician for life and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

      The Dems will get creamed in the mid-terms because they are led by three of the absolutely worst politicians to ever hold office.

      Who is on the Democrats’ bench? Chuck Shumer? Andrew Cuomo? Alexandria Occasional-Cortex?

      The Dems could be down for a very long time.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10716929/Bidens-approval-craters-33.html

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I’ll take Biden ANY DAY over the idiot who preceded him. GAWD knows what the world and the US would look like if he were still POTUS.

        You name some Dems –

        you gotta be kidding. Have you seen the lineup of GOP wackadoodles these days?

        Half the GOP believes in conspiracy theories these days.

  2. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Was Mark Meadows one of the pollees? Was he counted twice?

    Russia released the names of 300-some Congresspersons against whom they are imposing sanctions. I think the names of those NOT on the list would be of more interest.

  3. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    State employees had the opportunity to invest to supplement their Social Security and VRS. This was before the plan changed, but there was still a match. I had plenty of conversations with our employees and found almost total disinterest in the added retirement protection. Lots more grasshoppers than ants out there. Hey, my Dad had no investments, just the pensions. My brother and I finally talked him into putting some cash in the market. In 2007 (oh my, did we hear about that.)

    Saxman’s onto something here, though.

  4. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    State employees had the opportunity to invest to supplement their Social Security and VRS. This was before the plan changed, but there was still a match. I had plenty of conversations with our employees and found almost total disinterest in the added retirement protection. Lots more grasshoppers than ants out there. Hey, my Dad had no investments, just the pensions. My brother and I finally talked him into putting some cash in the market. In 2007 (oh my, did we hear about that.)

    Saxman’s onto something here, though.

  5. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    For the Feds, in 1986, some time ago, they converted their defined benefit pension plan (with no SS) into a plan called FERS – which has a smaller defined benefit, social security and a supplemental IRA.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6bd95e08d4f97165dc309cc387c9419d0bd299c4b37c0722ea9109aacf5fe0f7.jpg

    VRS also relies on Social Security as do many employer plans.

    Too many do not understand Social Security – but they would definitely find out if it went away.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6beae7617f25f5035cf8aac7201c8e8111c5c47c0578c1334074676b9ce52031.jpg

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think GOP folks are sometimes totally tone deaf on issues like retirement and health care.

    Yes, those folks who have college will often land jobs with companies that provide health insurance and retirement benefits.

    But in the real world, there are folks who work for employers who provide neither – not a few, but millions. They work their whole life without employer “benefits”.

    and that is where Social Security and then of late the ACA and the Medicaid Expansion came to be – and the GOP opposed all of it from Social Security originally and then the ACA and the Medicaid Expansion (more than 70 state lawsuits challenging).

    One has to wonder exactly what they were and are thinking when millions of working class people lack retirement benefits and health insurance without these programs.

    And they dream on as if today’s “seniors” will join them in rolling back these programs – like they never heard of AARP!

    It boggles the mind but that’s apparently how some GOP “think”.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      I know plenty of plumbers and other craftsmen who never went to college for a day happily living the retired life on the beaches of North and South Carolina. They were self-employed and saved up for their own retirement.

      The idea that “working class” people are stupid or irresponsible is just another Democratic fantasy.

      I also know college educated people who owned restaurants and bars, paid themselves “under the table”, get little from Social Security and now find retirement difficult.

      Choices, Larry. Choices.

      Government’s role is not to indemnify people from their own irresponsibility.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Did they have self-directed IRAs? How about health insurance?

        No one said the working class was stupid.

        What we said was that they don’t have the same advantages provided by the govt to some employers.

        IRAs are govt sanctioned and so is health insurance.

        If the govt did not subsidize health insurance and IRAs – they would not be available.

        You know half the problem these days with Conservatives is dealing with the beliefs that simply are not true.

        The Govt is who insures health insurance and IRAs from employers – not the employers.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Your quote: “Lots of todays seniors who never got college and ended up with wage jobs are in that boat.”

          Your condescension toward people who have “wage jobs” is palpable.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            quite the opposite – in fact. I want all workers to be treated equitably when it comes to IRA and health insurance whether they are college-educated or not.

            You guys would kill the ACA and the Medicaid Expansion if you could.

            That’s ‘condescension”.

      2. James McCarthy Avatar
        James McCarthy

        So, punish the millions who are irresponsible? The purpose of a society, a polity is to ensure and “promote the general welfare.” A “more perfect Union” includes all including those unable to provide fully for themselves. We can all contribute some of the sacred private property created and amassed to achieve that goal. Difficult to imagine such bitter opposition to OASDI today.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          there are millions and millions that work in jobs that don’t have retirement plans or health insurance and if conservatives had their way, they’d take away SS and health insurance while keeping IRAs and employer-provided for those that had it.

          it makes no sense at all but it’s apparently how Conservatives view it.

          remember ‘Repeal & Replace” and rip out the ACA insurance root and branch?

          and the irony is that the GOP does influence voters on this – the rubes and clueless who would support it.

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