Want to Create Jobs? Think Big.

The Republicans in Virginia’s House of Delegates have passed a lot of bills to promote “jobs and opportunity” this year — at least 34 by my count, based on a compendium of bills approved by the House on the House Speaker’s website. The best that can be said is that, if enacted into law, most of them wouldn’t do too much damage. A number use the old ploy of exempting favored groups from assorted taxes, which is a bad thing because the state tax code has too many exemptions already, but for the most part they are inoffensive.

But it is difficult to imagine these narrow-bore bills having much impact on Virginia employment. In the long run, the best way to increase employment and economic opportunity are by making sure the commonwealth does a good job of performing core functions and services, keeping taxes low and getting the hell out of the way. If legislators really want to promote jobs and opportunities, here are some general strategies they should pursue that require no expansion in the scope of government.

Build knowledge clusters. Companies are more competitive, more likely to grow faster and more likely to spin off new enterprises when they belong to a strong knowledge cluster, usually focused on a specific industry. Most of the knowledge resides in the companies themselves, but some of it resides in academic institutions, research centers, not-for-profit organizations and the legal and financial professions. Knowledge concentrations lead to greater innovation and higher levels of productivity, and they attract outside capital investment. Government is not particularly adept at creating knowledge clusters, but it when such clusters already exist, government can act as a catalyst to get key players organized and acting in the common interest, and it can play an important role by supporting community college and higher ed programs to create a stream of graduates possessing skills relevant to the clusters.

In my day job, I have worked with the state of North Carolina, which has played a role in creating the North Carolina Aerospace Alliance, and with metro Atlanta, which, with the state of Georgia, is actively promoting a digital entertainment industry. Virginia has numerous knowledge clusters, too, but I don’t see the state doing anything substantive to promote any of them.

Reform human settlement patterns. You don’t have to buy into the “smart growth” vision to acknowledge the need to reform Virginia’s scattered, disconnected, low-density human settlement patterns. Just think resource scarcity. Our human settlement patterns have evolved during an age charactrerized by energy abundance and a profligate use of natural resources. While the Global Financial Crisis has temporarily obscured the fact by depressing energy and commodity prices, we are moving to a new plateau of higher energy and resource prices. (Don’t believe me? The 2.4 billion inhabitants of China and India do.) We need to evolve more compact, better connected communities that consume less energy and fewer raw materials. We don’t need to employ social engineering to reform human settlement patterns. We simply need to (a) devise funding mechanisms for transportation and public services that require households and enterprises to pay their location-variable costs, and (b) scrap the antiquated zoning codes that lock existing development patterns into place.

Want to promote job creation? More efficient human settlement patterns will provide cost savings for households, enterprises and municipal government.

Overhaul the health care system. Virginia Republicans rightfully regarded Obamacare as a monstrosity that would have increased the role of government and transferred wealth without addressing the underlying causes of escalating healthcare costs. Unfortunately, the Republican proposals, though relatively harmless, would have little effect. If they could just grit their teeth and admit it, Obamacare did contain a few good ideas, most particularly: measuring medical outcomes, disseminating best practices, and increasing transparency. There is nothing inherently “socialistic” or “big-governmentish” about these ideas.

There is no reason that Virginia needs to wait for the federal government to reform the state health care system. A good place to start would be to convene all major stakeholders — hospitals, doctors, health plans, employers, consumers — and expand upon the state’s existing but tepid data collection measures. Key goals would be to measure medical outcomes, allow health plans and providers to access the data to improve quality and reduce costs, and share the data with consumers so they could select providers on the basis of value (i.e. the best trade-off of price and quality). As measured by the Dartmouth Atlas, Virginia’s health care sector already delivers the best value anywhere on the East Coast. But there is huge room for improvement. We should aspire to be lead the country.

Want to create jobs? How about having a healthcare system that provides top quality care at half the cost of anywhere else in the country?


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45 responses to “Want to Create Jobs? Think Big.”

  1. A good narrative and appreciated. Thank you.

    I had a few thoughts.

    1. – you are exactly right about tax cuts – it's a dumb-as-a-stump idea based on wishful ideology and little else.

    2. – the most potent job growth sector right now is health care.

    3. – I like your idea of reforming HC in Virginia but I am skeptical that the parties who now benefit – just like at the National Level – will willingly cooperate and instead will do the same lobbying job on our own GA that they have done to Congress.

    The "monstrosity" was caused, in part if not in whole, by the perceived concessions necessary for special interests to cooperate and in the end – they just went to airwaves to scare the bejusus out of everyone and especially the seniors.

    I do not have enough bad words for the folks who originally opposed Medicare tooth and nail – that now seek to kill HC reform by telling seniors that the govt will take away their Medicare – the same Medicare that these yahoos originally opposed.

    It gripes the heck of me for these hypocrites to be able to sabotage via the airwaves and it gripes me even more that the Supreme Court just invited them to do it even more…

    4. FINALLY – there IS a way to HELP SW Virginia in in turn by doing so.. help all of Va and reduce the perceived sting to NoVa.

    Shale Natural Gas has dramatically changed the energy landscape and Va sits on it – in the same places where we now blow off mountaintops and dump the debris in the valley below.

    What is needed is more investment in the development of the technology and the surveying and drilling that could be accelerated with the right kinds of State incentives.

    There are concerns about the process and they need to be addressed but surely they cannot be any worse that the pollutions including mercury than emanate from our coal plants.

    New natural gas plants in SW virginia could also provide needed jobs.

    And unlike Nuclear, loan subsidizes are not needed nor operating subsides for insurance.

    So far.. my perception of McDonnell is that he (or his chosen staff) is careful and somewhat analytical and except for spending the snow money to reopen the rest areas.. has not stepped in any major piles of poo.

    I'm very hopeful that he is one of the old style Republicans who was skillful as ferreting out waste and implementing reasonable cost-effective measures and not so interested in idealogical games.

    so far. so good.

  2. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Jim,
    You say that North Carolina and Georgia have "knowledge clusters" that their states promote but while Virginia has the same, it doesn't promote them.
    First, I am not sure what a "knowledge cluster"is although I can assume it is some kind of economic development marketing BS.
    There is an emerging aviation "knowledge cluster" in Prince George with Rolls Royce's new plant with links to UVA and Tech and community colleges. The state does promote it.
    So how come the state doesn't promote this stuff?

    Peter Galuszka

  3. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Peter, helping Rolls Royce is not the same as building a knowledge cluster around aviation and aerospace. There's a difference between "co-location" (a bunch of companies in the same industry being located in the same state but not interacting in a meaningful way) and a "cluster" (a bunch of companies in the same industry that *do* interact, sharing knowledge, creating joint ventures and partnerships, collaborating along supply chains, etc.).

    Check out the North Carolina Aerospace Alliance website at http://nc-aa.org/aerospace. The state is trying to get aerospace parts manufacturers to collaborate in winning federal contracts in a fairly sophisticated way. If Virginia is doing anything similar (outside of NoVa, where they wrote the book on military procurement), I don't know about it.

    There is some debate as to whether the aerospace sector warrants the term "cluster," mainly because the aerospace presence consists mainly of branch manufacturing plants, but NC authorities are doing their best to build it into one.

  4. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Jim,
    Sorry but I still don't get it. I fail to see the difference between what is going on in NC and in Prince George County.
    I did look at the Website and was puzzled. The NC alliance is based in Kinston, a small Eastern NC tobacco town with a small regional airport. The only significant military aerospace facility in the area is the Naval AIr Rework Facility at MCAS Cherry Point which has been on the BRAC chopping block for years. Seymour Johnson AFB may have some opportunities but my guess is that a lot of the manufacturing as opposed to maintenance is done elsehwere. General Electric has a very significant jet engine plant in the Durham area, but that begs the question — why is this outfit in Kinston? And what is it, exactly?.
    I sure hope it isn't somehow related to the Global TransPark which has been a hopeless Kinston boondoggle for years. If you want to talk about failed econ development and lots of eaten up federal and state dollars, go no further!
    I did a cover story on the military industry in North Carolina a few years ago for Business North Carolina in Charlotte. The conclusion was despite the big bases (Camp Lejeune, Fort Bragg, Seymour Johnson and Pope AFBs) there ain't much, really.
    Can you clarify better how this alliance is significant and what a "cluster" really is. It still sounds like marketing BS. SOrry.
    Peter Galuszka

  5. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Peter, Actually, I think the N.C. authorities are still trying to flog the Global TransPark, and that white elephant does have some connection to the Aerospace Alliance, but I don't believe that it is central.

    As for the concept of industry clusters, I would simply refer you to Michael Porter's work on the subject. The fact is, industry clusters do exist all around the globe (think Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Wall Street in the U.S.), and the pooling of knowledge and expertise contributes to their competitive advantage. I don't think this is controversial in any way.

    A single Rolls Royce manufacturing plant in Prince George's County does not constitute a cluster, even if it does have research and/or workforce ties to Virginia higher ed.

    The only thing that may be controversial about cluster analysis is what role, if any, government should play. I am suggesting that government can play a supporting role, particularly in the areas of workforce preparedness and the orientation of university R&D.

  6. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Jim,
    Thanks for the explanation which is clear if not obvious. I would think the NC aerospace thing would depend almost entirely upon the federal teat, tho.
    PG

  7. E M Risse Avatar

    Jim Bacon:

    Great post!

    Some quick points related human settlement patterns – Location / Scale, Critical Mass and Impact.

    With respect to the Location there are two critical issues of scale.

    First is the issue of Regional location. Put Jobs where those Jobs create a Critical Mass AND move toward Balance in each of the Communities where they are located.

    The Creative Cluster idea is a place to start. However, collecting a number of synergistic Jobs in one location is not enough. There must also be Critical Mass of J / H / S / R / A. In addition to the Jobs there must be Housing / Services (Agency, Enterprise and Institutional Services) / Recreation and Amenity to create Balance.

    Some one who is smart enough to be an asset in a new Job creation strategy will be concerned about these issues. That makes articulating an understanding, concern and strategy for them a competitive recruiting advantage.

    Location WITHIN the Community is also important. Go to Google Earth and look up Georgetown, KY, Princeton, IN, Blue Springs, Miss, Lincoln, AL, Marysville ,OH or other places where buffalo hunting economic development types have scored big. Check out the huge Greenfield industrial cites with HUGE parking lots and not a shared vehicle system station in sight.

    There must be SOME jobs that folks who cannot afford (or cannot drive) a Large, Private Vehicle can do to build Large, Private Vehicles. Having a rail siding and an Interstate Interchange is NOT enough.

    Job Impact is also important. Energy is hot but all the energy alternatives have downsides. That means the end product will be expensive but it also means the location of the energy Jobs may result in unwanted side effects:

    Oil – All the easy to access (cheap) oil has been pumped. New oil is off-shore, deep, low grade or all three.

    Gas – Check out what is happening in PA concerning extraction of the new shale reserves – sounds a lot like Mountain Top Removal.

    Coal – Mountain Top Removal is the tip of the iceberg. Clean Coal yields VERY expensive energy.

    Uranium – Where does the ore come from? How is it extracted? What is the impact on the extraction site and surrounding land and water? Where can safe facilities be built to convert it to a useable form of energy? Where does the waste go? How secure is it?

    Wind, Geothermal and all the other potential energy generation alternatives have similar questions.

    There may be answers for every question and solutions for every problem but they all cost money AND the jobs they generate may not be worth the cost – WHEN, NOT IF – the location-variable costs are fairly allocated.

    These ‘Jobs’ may pay wages for a while but what do they do for a Region and a Community in the long term?

    Think about the textile industry: When the mill closed did it leave a Balanced Community or even a Balanceable Community?

    Think coal in Appalachia and the TVA. Did those ‘jobs’ leave behind great places to live and work?

    What needs to be considered before spending citizens money to ‘create jobs’?

    What about happiness and safety, what about the Wealth Gap?

    Humans are running out of resources to fund ‘do overs.’

    EMR

  8. are we saying that if there is NO govt presence…like the Defense Dept or NASA folks that a State can incubate a purely private-sector aerospace "cluster"?

    I'm pretty skeptical unless someone has a couple of examples…

    There are some private sector companies like Boeing… but even Boeing got out of the Regional Jet business and now Canada, Germany and Brazil have that market.

    Virginia's ace-in-the-hole incubators are NoVa and HR/TW with their existing and probably permanent Federal presence.

    Virginia has some major advantages over States trying to start from scratch.

    McDonnell could score a major coup if he could get Northrop Grumman.

    The bases dotted around the Washington Metro Area, Fort Belvoir, Quantico, A.P. Hill, etc would seem attractive locations for aerospace but papers say that Annapolis is in the running… Annapolis? ???

  9. re: EMR's input

    isn't it ironic that METRO and VRE do not go to Fort Belvoir and only VRE goes to Quantico but only runs in one direction being commuter rail.

    this brings up the issue of what could be offered to a company like Northrop Grumman to locate in an area accessible by transit?

    If EMR were in charge of economic development – what arguments could be offered to the likes of Northrop Grumman to NOT locate in an auto-dependent location?

  10. Anonymous Avatar

    Virginia has Wallops Island, which already launches satellites and other rockets. We could do a lot more with it, but that area needs air service, which cannot happen without subsidies.

    The NextGen Air traffic system will allow much more efficient use of airspace and also allow for unpiloted aircraft. This will be a huge effort and Virginia could tap into it.

    Despite what EMR says about arilines being dead, BWI set a record this year for umber of passengers carried, and their numbers will be bigger next year.

    If you really want to create a lot of jobs, find a way to be very lenient towards immigrants, and back off on a few tons of zoning restrictions.

    RH

  11. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Jim,
    Had to be a pest, but this North Carolina project may not be the cutting edge "cluster" as advertised.
    For one thing, it is funded by the Golden Leaf project which is the same as Virginia's tobacco fund — namely money from the 1996 master agreement with the four big tobacco firms to help economic development in impoverished tobaccoland areas.
    Lenoir County, where Kinston is located, has an unemployment rate of 11.9 percent. Just about every Eastern N.C. county has a double-digit rate thanks to an over dependence on dying textile and furniture firms along with huge changes in tobacco. As Business NC story pointed out a little while ago, once you get past the big retirement communities on the coast and coastal rivers, Eastern N.C.'s economy is much like that of Mississippi.
    Virginia has some pockets of similar unemployment in the Southside and coalfields of the Southwest, but I don't believe even they have the extent of NC's economic devastation.
    All this said, it may be a bit of s tretch to represent this effort, however worthy, as some kind of cutting edge idea on the order of Michael Porter, a master marketeer who has made millions hawking such ideas. You can't compare Eastern N.C. with Silicon Valley (which is suffering its own severe woes).
    Could this be a recession era version of the Global TransPark?

    Peter Galuszka

  12. J. Tyler Ballance Avatar
    J. Tyler Ballance

    Imagine if you had a large amount of investment capital and planned to build some manufacturing plants. Would you put your money here in the United States, or would you invest your money in China or India, or some other place where labor rates are so low as to approximate slavery?

    Would you locate a plant here in the US, where "Suzy Creamcheese" could bankrupt you with a sexual harassment, or product liability lawsuit, or would you invest in China or the third world, where, all you are required to do is, bribe the occasional public official?

    Of course, with open markets here in the USA, there is no barrier to locating manufacturing offshore, aside from the cost of shipping.

    We Americans cannot compete with slave labor rates. We need a program of fair trade, where access to American markets requires that manufacturers make their products here. Screw China.

    As for promoting more compact, low energy footprint communities, that is EASY! Just repeal the misnamed, "Fair Housing Act." The Act took away Americans' right to sell their property to whomever they want. Think about this. We can refuse to sell our classic car to someone who won't take care of it, or refuse to sell any other personal property, but not a house. As a direct consequence, the integrity of neighborhoods has been destroyed and we created a mass exodus, "White Flight" to the extreme suburbs.

    Today, we can invest in a nice home in a good neighborhood, and, because of the Fair Housing Act, the value of the home and the neighborhood can be destroyed by the sale of a single house to an unscrupulous owner.

    I saw this happen in a community where I used to live. We need to be able to form covenant communities with the right to refuse sale of houses to dirt-bags.

    We are supposed to have the right to associate, yet the Housing Act, usurps our ability to freely create communities of home owners who will take pride in their community, and who will do their part to improve and maintain their property.

  13. J. Tyler Ballance Avatar
    J. Tyler Ballance

    Imagine if you had a large amount of investment capital and planned to build some manufacturing plants. Would you put your money here in the United States, or would you invest your money in China or India, or some other place where labor rates are so low as to approximate slavery?

    Would you locate a plant here in the US, where "Suzy Creamcheese" could bankrupt you with a sexual harassment, or product liability lawsuit, or would you invest in China or the third world, where, all you are required to do is, bribe the occasional public official?

    Of course, with open markets here in the USA, there is no barrier to locating manufacturing offshore, aside from the cost of shipping.

    We Americans cannot compete with slave labor rates. We need a program of fair trade, where access to American markets requires that manufacturers make their products here. Screw China.

    As for promoting more compact, low energy footprint communities, that is EASY! Just repeal the misnamed, "Fair Housing Act." The Act took away Americans' right to sell their property to whomever they want. Think about this. We can refuse to sell our classic car to someone who won't take care of it, or refuse to sell any other personal property, but not a house. As a direct consequence, the integrity of neighborhoods has been destroyed and we created a mass exodus, "White Flight" to the extreme suburbs.

    Today, we can invest in a nice home in a good neighborhood, and, because of the Fair Housing Act, the value of the home and the neighborhood can be destroyed by the sale of a single house to an unscrupulous owner.

    I saw this happen in a community where I used to live. We need to be able to form covenant communities with the right to refuse sale of houses to dirt-bags.

    We are supposed to have the right to associate, yet the Housing Act, usurps our ability to freely create communities of home owners who will take pride in their community, and who will do their part to improve and maintain their property.

  14. Rural Virginia and NC (and many other SE states) have lost much of their small manufacturing base.

    I never really understand why all these small towns even had a small textile or clothing or furniture plant to start with as it appears that their only advantage was a rail line or maybe cheap (by comparison to other US locations) labor but the raw materials (like cloth and timber) had to be transported to these locations.. then after manufacture – transported to the markets.

    EMR often talks about where the jobs SHOULD BE relative to the settlement pattern but the reality is that the jobs go where the enterprise finds the optimal conditions for it as an enterprise and that has not much to do with the functionality of the settlement pattern but more to do with the economic condition of the people who would be workers.

    in short.. cheap labor…

    So we have hundreds/thousands of what I call zombie towns in the Southeast – towns that are economically dead – once the local manufacturing plant left.

    and there is virtually no hope that anything else will locate there because unfortunately the education level is mainly suited to hand work and not knowledge-based jobs.

    No amount of State "help" on the economic development side is going to help if the workforce is under-educated.

    The Cluster idea does not really help the folks who already live there.. in that regard.

    Clusters are all about ATTRACTING companies AND workers… and the larger question is – what is the locational criteria for the prospective location of a cluster?

    do you just stick a pin in a map?

    what criteria should be the focus of trying to create a cluster from scratch?

    Has anyone ever read a basic rationale from the economic development folks?

    How would Virginia go about trying to create a cluster in the high unemployment areas of the state?

    I have many more questions than there seem to be answers….

    I think Virginia's (and most states) best shot is to insure that rural children get an top-notch education that will them allow them to find a knowledge-based job – where those jobs are.

    Maybe EMR is right. All those rural towns that have lost their employment centers are total toast and further investment in them as a location is more or less futile.

  15. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Peter, I'm not trying to depict the NC Aerospace Alliance as some huge economic-development leap forward. I simply mentioned it in passing as an example of how people in North Carolina are actually *thinking* in terms of building clusters. I suspect that even the North Carolina people involve with the Alliance would concede that they have a long way to go.

    The Warner administration showed some cognizance of the importance of clusters, but didn't do much with it. The Kaine administration showed zero awareness, that I could tell. And I see absolutely no sign that the McDonnell administration understands the importance of clusters. Some other states do get it. Virginia doesn't.

    Is building knowledge clusters an economic development miracle cure-all? Of course not. But building clusters makes a lot more sense than the "job creating" initiatives touted by the McDonnell administration (which you rightfully criticized in an earlier post).

  16. well I agreed with much of what Tyler said until this:

    " We need to be able to form covenant communities with the right to refuse sale of houses to dirt-bags."

    I'm not sure how you know who a "dirt-bag" is – if they qualify for a loan on a high dollar house in a gated community.

    and what the heck any of his Fair Housing rant has to do with Fair Trade.

    educate me.

  17. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Larry, I know of no one who has seriously proposed that building knowledge clusters will promote rural economic development. But definition, clusters occur where there are concentrations of business, which, by definition, will be hard to find in rural areas.

    (The one rural cluster initiative in Virginia that I can call was Gov. Warner's idea of building a NASCAR cluster in Southside Virginia. I don't think it came to much.)

  18. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Tyler, Of course the United States manufacturers cannot compete with China on the basis of what they pay their labor. But that's not to say they cannot compete. We can compete on the basis of innovation, labor productivity and quality. Innovation = creating new and improved products and manufacturing processes. Labor productivity = skills, education, flexible work forces. Quality = statistical process controls for identifying and fixing sources of errors. It's not easy, but it can be done.

    If competition with China inspires us to improve, then it's a good thing. "Fair" trade will only induce complacency.

  19. Part 1:

    Great post, but several questions:

    1. Clusters – they exist. Hartford (insurance), Silicon Valley, i.e. – San Francisco & San Jose (computing technology), Wall Street – i.e. New York City (investments and banking), Hollywood – i.e. Los Angeles (entertainment).

    I have attached the city names to these clusters to make a point. They are ALL located in cities that existed long before the clusters came to fruition. The only cluster that I can recall which was the result of determined government activity is Research Triangle Park, NC – i.e. Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, NC.

    Clusters are clustered around good universities. Silicon Valley has many, most notably Stanford and Berkeley. Los Angeles has many including UCLA.

    As usual, Virginia is disorganized and stubborn. We have three premier universities. None are located in a city large enough to become a cluster (Charlottesville may be a long shot exception). So, we can either build out major cities in Blacksburg, Charlottesville and Williamsburg or we can put extra effort into George Mason, VCU and Christopher Newport. As usual, Virginia does neither.

    2. Human settlement patterns. My eyes are glazing over on this. Every single problem is a problem of human settlement patterns. Yet, none of the human settlement pattern advocates can name even one place in the United States which meets their definition of having functional human settlement patterns. You want clusters? You get specific names of places where clusters exist. You want functional human settlement patterns? You get academic descriptions of high falutin' theory.

    3. Airports. RH is right in reverse. Airports are an important aspect of cluster development. The USA and the world are connected places. If you want to locate a company in a cluster then you want the cluster to have a number of things (think Richard Florida). One thing is that you want the cluster to be in a large enough urban area to support your employee base. Which is why clusters exist in established cities. Airports are the byproduct of established cities and established cities attract clusters. There was an airport in San Francisco when they were still growing fruit in Silicon Valley.

  20. Part 2:

    If I could spell out a plan for building clusters in Virginia, I'd do the following:

    1. I'd make the following assignments:

    a) NoVa – information processing, technology services and software

    b) Tidewater – precision manufacturing

    c) Richmond – finance and insurance

    d) Charlottesville – biotechnology, medical research

    I'd overfund the universities in each of those areas – GMU, CNU, VCU, UVA. I would sell most of the other universities to their own boards of visitors and let them operate as private schools. This would be a hard pill to swallow for schools like Virginia Tech (easily the best engineering school in the state – rated #14 in engineering in the US in the latest USN&WR). All I can say is that MIT is a private school and it's the best engineering school in the US. Tech's only major fault is being located in a city that will just take too long to build into a location large enough to create a cluster.

    We also need to stop subsidizing places where economic progress has died. The sad truth is that many localities in Virginia are over-populated relative to their forseeable economic potential. We need people to leave those places and head for the clusters. Not everybody has to leave, just enough to reduce the population to a point where there is mid term economic sustainability. I'd guess that this is about an average of 30% reduction in population over the next 10 – 20 years.

    Economically unsustainable areas become a drain on the finances of a state trying to establish economically sustainable clusters. However, there may be one way to dampen the pain of this … retirement enclaves. Given the demographics of America and given the definition of a retiree as a person who has voluntarily stopped working – there is a need for places where people can retire. This demand does not require cluster cities. One potential area of funding for the Charlottesville cluster would be for telemedicine to be used at future retirement enclaves in places like Big Stone Gap, VA.

  21. Good Post Groveton.

    One caveat – Blacksburg and environs is not that different than the Triangle area at it's birth.

    There are quite a few businesses and private entities allied with Virginia Tech.

    Major universities are opportunities for R&D type companies and in my mind, that might be an area that the state could enhance with "enterprise zones".

    Have folks here seen this site:

    http://www.yesvirginia.org/whyvirginia/financial_advantages/Business_Incentives.aspx

    probably good incubators for businesses involved in innovative technologies.

  22. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Jim and Groveton,
    Interesting reponses, but I still want to extra the "cluster" hype from reality. For one thing, is Richmond really a finance and insurance cluister. Arguing for it are such firms as Markel and Genworth and some big branches of regional or national banks. Arguing against it are LandAmerica which went bust and Wachoviua Securities which soplit to St. Louis before being swallowed by Wells Fargo. Not sure Charlottesville has that much to offer in terms of biotech. And I say that Rolls Royce is a cluster.
    Jim, curious that while you mention Govs Warner and Kaine and clusters you seem to avoid the big enchilada — McDonnell.
    So far, his idea of jobs creation are a bunmch of baby steps towards more incentives and lower taxes which don't really get all that far with jobs crteation. Companies would locate happily in higher tax areas if there's a raison d'etre, i.e. a really great university network or a network of like industries with a geat labor pool. This is precisely why NOVA has done so well in the recession, besides all that federal money — it has a good and talented labor pool and is close to good universities. One problem with Richmond is that it really doesn't have any Tier One schools.
    Unfortunately, McDonnell's lame job creations are also linked to his ideas for budget cuts which put the pain on low income pregnant women, public school students and teachers and the poor and mentally ill. He could have re=installed the car tax and taxed the rich, but he's laying it on the poor. So much for the Gospel and all that stuff via Pat Robertson U.

    Peter Galuszka

  23. Anonymous Avatar

    What if a state, say Virginia, for example, simply tried to run itself efficiently? What if it reduced the number of educrats it funded and shifted the savings to teachers? What if it adopted principles of separation of church and state to abolish the state religion — Developer Worship — and built or didn't build roads based on engineering and economic studies? What if it forced every lobbyist to do his or her deeds in public? What if it dropped subsidies to this business or that business and just keep taxes reasonably low? What if government simply performed basic services and dropped programs that didn't produce results?

    I think such state would probably do quite well for its residents.

    TMT

  24. Anonymous Avatar

    My point about Wallops is that it is a pretty major piece of infrastructure that is in a remote area – on purpose.

    To get to Wallops is a major headache,and that needs to be fixed if it is ever to be anything more than a ground operations facility.

    Airports and transit are both self bootstarpping operations. You can't have them without the traffic to support them, and you can't get the traffic to support them without them. Someone has to make the investment and sustain it long enough to become self supporting.

    Normally you cannot have long term profits without short term ones but in this case the only way to long term profits is to forget about the short term ones.

    If NextGen ever works, it will make possible sevice to many more regonal airports, and much less of the hub and spoke network that causes much of our delays.

  25. Anonymous Avatar

    "I think such state would probably do quite well for its residents."

    You mean like Mississippi and Arkansas?

    RH

  26. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Peter, I guess you missed this sentence in my previous comment: "I see absolutely no sign that the McDonnell administration understands the importance of clusters."

    I guess you also missed this sentence: "Building clusters makes a lot more sense than the 'job creating' initiatives touted by the McDonnell administration (which you rightfully criticized in an earlier post)."

    Groveton, you make some wonderfully provocative statements, including the idea of halting subsidies to economically unsustainable regions. I agree with you in the abstract — the subsidies make no economic sense. Not only are they robbing from the rich to give to the poor, the subsidies really don't even accomplish anything. It's like spitting into the wind.

    Politically, it's a non-starter right now. But if crazy people on blogs start stating the obvious, maybe the idea will enter the mainstream discourse in five or 10 years.

  27. Anonymous Avatar

    I hope someone in the Elephant Clan or the Donkey Clan is reading these perspectives. The press releases from the Lt Gov Bolling about ‘jobs’ are enough to “drive a dog from the gut wagon” as they say here in NonUrban Virginia. (For those who have not gotten at least three Emails from Lt Gov Bolling on this topic, Lt Gov Bolling is Gov McDonnell’s “designated point man in the effort to turn around Virginia’s sluggish economy” and he is flogging it for all he is worth. After all McDonnell is a lame duck and Bolling wants his turn next.)

  28. E M Risse Avatar

    Jim Bacon, Groveton and TMT all have very good ideas but nothing approaching this level of action will happen without Fundamental Transformation in governance structure PERIOD.

    Yesterday’s CPAC poll anoints Ron Paul and not Paul Ryan, the blue eyed sage of Business-As-Usual with rose colored glasses from Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.

    Today’s CNN poll finds 85 percent of the population thinks Bill Bradley was right: Government IS Broken.

    Time for AntiPartisanism.

    Are you up to it Groveton?

    J. Tyler B:

    If you have a lot of money to invest, invest in your Village and your Community. See today’s WaPo Op Ed by Barry Lynn “Let’s put mon and pop back in business” on page B1. Lynn is the author of “Cornered: The New Monopoly Capitalism and the Economic of Destruction.” Also see “The Small Mart Revolution,” “Cheap,” “SuperCapitalism, etc.” Schumacher was right, he just did not quantify ‘small’ – a Core Confusing Word like ‘local’.

    Also Larry and others are right, the problem is NOT equal housing opportunity, it is that municipalities and the states abandoned Clusters and Neighborhoods with no governance structure. See above on Fundamental Transformation.

    Groveton:

    You said:

    “2. Human settlement patterns. My eyes are glazing over on this.”

    It is a shame too. You could make a great contribution if you just tried to understand.

    “Every single problem is a problem of human settlement patterns.”

    That is largely true – directly or indirectly. There are some problems that do not seem to be human settlement pattern problems but can only be solved when citizens have a platform of functional human settlement patterns from which to launch a sustainable trajectory.

    “Yet, none of the human settlement pattern advocates can name even one place in the United States which meets their definition of having functional human settlement patterns.”

    That statement is no more correct than: “All Catholics support bringing back the Inquisition” or “All graduates of Groveton HS who ever went to UVA flunked out.” You just do not read the right materials.

    “You want clusters? (With a small ‘c’) You get specific names of places where clusters exist.”

    That is true, in fact most of your points re knowledge clusters as correct. See our note on Critical Mass above.

    “You want functional human settlement patterns? You get academic descriptions of high falutin' theory.”

    Not true. See our post on METRO and read the cited material.

    EMR

  29. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Jim,
    You are right about citing McDonnell. Sorry I missed it. Was distracted by Groveton.
    Peter Galuszka

  30. Research Triangle Park is a great story if you believe in clusters and want to see how governemnt can help foster economic growth. LarryG writes a bit about Virginia Tech and RTP. There are some commonalities but it's like a slice of pizza versus a whole pizza.

    Research Triangle Park has:

    1. Three top caliber national universities. Duke – #10, UNC/Chapel Hill – #28 and NC State/Raleigh – #88. Virginia Tech is a fine school but it is one school, ranked #71.

    2. RTP includes the capital of North Carolina – Raleigh. Much like Austin, TX (which combines the state capital with a fine large university) RTP merges academics and government in an intelligent way. Ohio has also made some pretty serious progress in Columbus with the state capital and Ohio State University. Meanwhile, Richmond has the University of Richmond (considered a liberal arts university, not a national university – it is ranked #30 in the liberal arts category) and VCU. VCU is considered a national university but it is considered tier 3 national university. These are schools ranked between #134 #190. There is no sub-ranking among tier 3 national universities.

    3. Northern Virginia has some momentum from being near Washington, DC. There are some very good universities in the vicinity (although they are in Maryland and DC more than Virginia). Johns Hopkins University (arguably close enough to be considered accessible to DC) is ranked considerably better than any Virginia university (#14), Georgetown University is also rated better than any Virginia university (#23), George Washington University is tied with the University of Maryland/College Park #53. Northern Virginia's best entry is George Mason University which (like VCU) is considered tier 3 university. In a bright spot, George Mason University was named #2 on the list of "up and coming" national universities.

    So, the Commonwealth of Virginia has three national universities ranked in the top 100 – UVA (#24), W&M(#33) and VT (#71). None are in urban areas which could become clusters (with the possible exception of Charlottesville) and none are in the state capital (nor close to the national capital).

    Final note: Old Dominion University is ranked as a tier 3 national university and Christopher Newport is ranked as a tier 4 liberal arts university.

  31. E M Risse Avatar

    Groveton:

    Case in point re your reading and the question of health and human settlement patterns:

    Go to this site:

    http://www.planetizen.com/node/42979

    and follow the link to the full story.

    Also not the links to the four 'related' stories and three of the five links under related news stories.

    Sorry, I had intended to post this earlier in response to Jim Bacons reference.

    It is not just EMR that understands this stuff, although his Vocabulary is not yet widely used.

    EMR

  32. E M Risse Avatar

    Groveton:

    Having done some developement work in the Central North Carolina NUR, I agree with your slice of pizza analogy.

    Also, as you know from your visits there, there are a number of Cluster, Neighborhood and Village scale components in the Triangle SubRegion that are close to Alpha status.

    Unfortunately, they are not organized in Communities, much less SubRegions, with functional settlement patterns and thus while more like a whole pizza they are not a Balanced diet.

    EMR

  33. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Grovteon,
    All good point about the Research Triangle Park and the need for top tier universities.
    A few other points — RTP was planned in the late 1950s and took off in the 1960s. It could evolve since it was close to a good engineering school (NC State) and could rely on TWO decent medical schools, Chapel Hill and Duke. By the 1970s, RTP had attracted major pharmceutical firms and IBM. It is still doing so. Merck just had a big expension there.
    In Richmond, by contrast, you have the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park down by the MCV campus. It was pushed by former VCU president Eugene Trani and has been run pretty much by the same crowd since the 1990s. The only truly major entity it has attracted is a $350 million Philip MOrris USA research facility. But that has a lot of baggage because many able scientists refuse to work with tobacco firms for ethical reasons and because the tobacco industry is notoriously secretive about its R&D. PM USA doesn't comment at all about what it does in downtown Richmond. Otherwise, the park has hatched three stand alone companies. What happened to them? One vamoosed to Missouri. The other two were delisted on Nasdaq because either their stock fell below a buck for two long or they could not meet capital requirements. In other words, the Richmond endeavor has been a relative failure, despite all the fawning press it receives locally. A shake up might be the solution, but it seems that the political ties of the individuals involved are too strong. And McDonnell doesn't seem to have the sense to realize much of this.

    Peter Galuszka

  34. E M Risse Avatar

    OK, a couple of other points:

    It is the Central Carolina NUR (not Central North Carolina NUR) as demonstated by STARK CONTRAST Graphic One it extends into South Carolina.

    Next Peter is right about the major characteristics of the East Carolina Urban Support Region.

    Finally, RTP stands for Research Triangle Park and that is about a thousand acres BETWEEN Raliegh, Durham and Chapel Hill. Raliegh, and none of the universities is IN RTP. They are in the Triangle SubRegion.

    EMR

  35. not your father's economic developer Avatar
    not your father’s economic developer

    Lively discussion! A few thoughts addressing the cluster conversation in this thread.

    1) Clusters are about function, not mass. That's the typical stumbling block in practitioners applying the term. Clusters typically represent a diversity of firms across segments of an industry and often interact around some shared assets: labor, r&d, natural resources, etc. There's no magic formula and the assumption made by one commenter about research universities being a must is wrong (e.g. Portland, Oregon in semiconductors for one). They're a big plus but not a requirement. Through interaction among firms in the cluster around these assets they generate agglomeration economies that provide all firms and the communities where they locate with competitive advantages over others.

    2) Knowledge clusters are a derivation (or a re-branding) of the term applied when innovative industries are at the core. That can mean "high tech" but doesn't have to. Innovation occurs across the economy. It also doesn't have to mean urban agglomerations. Michael Porter (Harvard), Stu Rosenfled (RTS); and Lee Minnich (U.Minn)have all written about rural knowledge clusters. They do tend to be healthiest when they are proximate or have good connectivity to urban areas. They also tend to innovate only in more mature industries (although not necessarily stereotypical sunset industries).

    3) The data typically used to diagnose the presence of clusters (e.g. employment location quotients, or value chain analysis) is very retrospective. This means a meaningful role for government on the front end is hampered by imperfect information. Its also one reason why I think the term is actually losing fashion among analysts.

    4) The idea expressed by one commenter that we should encourage mass migration from rural areas to "clusters" is profoundly misguided. The sunk costs in existing rural infrastructure aside, this is a path to diseconomies of scale in or urban centers, the tipping point where the agglomeration benefits of clusters are crowded out by transaction costs like traffic. (See any major third world city.)

    An appropriate response would be the one taken by Tech and UVA in partnering with industry and communities to develop distributed research centers that aren't "clusters" themselves but do represent a starting point for moving communities up the global value chain. I would argue you Rolls Royce was dismissed a bit lightly in this thread as a branch plant. The universities work with nuclear and wireless industries in Lynchburg is another example.

  36. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Not Your Father's Economic Developer: Thanks for chiming in. One point and one question…

    Comment: You said "The idea expressed by one commenter that we should encourage mass migration from rural areas to 'clusters' is profoundly misguided." I don't think that's a fair characterization of what was said. I think that both Groveton and myself would argue that it does not make sense to continue *subsidizing* rural areas. That's a far cry from "encouraging mass migration" from rural areas. If rural areas can find a profitable niche in the global economy, then, god bless 'em, I hope they succeed. But they need to make it on their own.

    Question: What industry/knowledge clusters exist in Virginia that you think have a future?

  37. E M Risse Avatar

    not your father's economic developer:

    Good points: Some notes on Vocabulary.

    “1) Clusters are about function, not mass.”

    The discussion was about ‘Critical Mass,’ not ‘mass’ in the conventional sense of gross scale.

    Successful knowledge clusters must be within a component of an Alpha Community that has a Critical Mass of Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity.

    2) …. “Michael Porter (Harvard), Stu Rosenfled (RTS); and Lee Minnich (U.Minn)have all written about rural knowledge clusters. They do tend to be healthiest when they are proximate or have good connectivity to urban areas.”

    In other words they are NOT ‘rural. ‘Rural’ is a Core Confusing Word for that very reason. Knowledge clusters described in this way are components of Balanced But Disaggregated Communities. All Communities and components of Communities are Urban. The Countryside is NonUrban but ideas generated on farms, in forests and extractive industries have an Urban focus at some scale. OK, in the Amazon there may be an emerging idea worthy of a knowledge cluster among the indigenous hunter-gathers – but they live in Villages by definition.

    3) “The data typically used to diagnose the presence of clusters (e.g. employment location quotients, or value chain analysis) is very retrospective. This means a meaningful role for government on the front end is hampered by imperfect information.”

    All the more reason for Agency, Enterprise, Institution collaboration WITHIN the organic components of human settlement.

    4) “The idea expressed by one commentor that we should encourage mass migration from rural areas to "clusters" is profoundly misguided.”

    Even more “profoundly misguided” than you suggest because they used the term ‘immigration’ and were apparently referring to migration from other nation-states.

    EMR agrees with Jim Bacon about dumping ‘dumb infrastructure’ into SubRegions with little Urban Institutional Capacity but the comment was suggesting immigration not migration.

    “An appropriate response would be the one taken by Tech and UVA in partnering with industry and communities to develop distributed research centers that aren't "clusters" themselves but do represent a starting point for moving communities up the global value chain.”

    Let us just start with the Regional value chain. In Urban Support Regions, start with the SubRegional value chain. Lynchburg, Charlottesville and Blacksburg are all Urban agglomerations in an Urban Support Region.

    EMR

  38. " Knowledge clusters described in this way are components of Balanced But Disaggregated Communities."

    ..

    " Lynchburg, Charlottesville and Blacksburg are all Urban agglomerations in an Urban Support Region."

    talk about core confusing !!!

    Now tell me again what the difference is between urban agglomerations in New Urban Regions and Urban Support Regions.

    what makes one of them a "support" region?

  39. Not sure that the physical clusters are neccessary, but the aggregation of competent folk in one area does provide a culture of success. If we had to pick an area of VA on which to concentrate this cluster. One may wish to choose hampton roads due to the uniqueness and critical nature of the port. Goods in tomorrows global world will continue to be most efficiently moved by water. Problem is the epicenter of BS and OPM is divyed out in NOVA, so until the nation decides to move congress, NOVA will continue to be the Mother of all Clusters (pun intended). As far as the 'requirement' of the top universities to be clustered, I think this is mainly mute as the primary 'product' of universities is info, that moves along wires (except in cases of physical research labs – particle accelaerators, etc.) Alreadyforemost researchers are collaborating across state, national, and international lines, pooling resources and expertise to invent awesome technologies (that are farmed out to be produced in china). Oh, and BTW researchers LOVE living in Blacksburg and Charlottesville where they can have an extraordinary standard of living and don't have to fight crime (with few sad recent exceptions) or traffic.

  40. Isn't it interesting that we talk about physical clusters in a world that we also talk about knowledged-based jobs and how much the world has become "connected".

    If your technical support person can be in New Deli why can't they be in Blacksburg?

    But I certainly agree with Boyrdee 3 that leveraging what you already have built-in is easier than trying to create clusters.

    and EMR keeps on with his …. Alpha Community that has a Critical Mass of Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity.

    Don't you think the above requirements were actually met in small town America when they had a job-producing plant physically in or near that town?

    But business, not government, decides the vitality and even the fate of such places.

    If the jobs go away.. none of the other parts – Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity as necessary conditions are met and.. the discussion here to a certain extent is two-fold:

    1. – Can the Govt create the conditions necessary for a private enterprise cluster to form without itself providing jobs in that location?

    2. – When will EMR address the idea that jobs can and do go away and thus balanced communities can – and do – also go away or move?

    The Feds in the DC Area chewed off the BRAC concept big time and created two major clusters – Fort Belvoir and Quantico – neither with METRO.. the same METRO that EMR hammers as a wrong solution because it "pumps" rush hour.

  41. Anonymous Avatar

    I rather guess that even if every car on metro left every station 3/4 full, no matter which direction it was traveling, day or night, that Metro would still be losing money.

    But we don't do our activites and travel evenly, day and night, so that will never be the case.

    And every train has to come to the endof the line SOMEWHERE, and that ttrain is not going to be as full as trains with more stops ahead of them.

    EMR claims that the proper mix or balance of jobs and residences would get us away from the situation where most of the cars leave half the stations mostly empty half of the time, but i think he is being optimistic about the achievable load ratio.

    If Metro was a science experiment, you would have written a hypothesis and tested it for 30 years. Today you would conclude that the hypothesis was wrong.

    We haven't got enough money to maintain the system we have, and yet we are building still more system that needs to find some kind of financial support. Of the three additions ot the present system, two will be incompatible light rail.

    If we just decided to take a fresh look at Metro, learn everything we did wrong the first time around, and then rip most of it up and satart over, you could create a huge number of jobs.

    And then we could do like Japan didwith their hsgh speed rail, and basically give the system to private enterprise to run. private enterprise coul run they system at a profit, thus "Proving" that fiscal conservatives are correct: private enterprise is more efficient than government.

    RH

  42. Anonymous Avatar

    I need to patent a new kind of heavy rail. Sections of rail, premanufactured and configured for quick connect and mounted on sections of air table.

    Whenever a roadway becomes too congested for cars you just float in the sectons and set them down to take over the existing roadbed, and increase capacity.

    Design them with self assembling robotic capability and they could be present for morning and evening rush our and put themselves away the rest of the time, sort of like those moveable Jersey walls.

    All you need is a bunch of parking lots to keep them in when not used…

    Now, about that square mile of concrete…..

    RH

  43. Anonymous Avatar

    clusters in VA that have a future:

    NOVA–
    1. Defense and Aerospace
    2. Govt administration and contracting
    3. Information technology (start-up and CIT)
    4. National and multi-state professional associations

    Richmond–
    1. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (regional banking operations, i-banking for middle market, stock brokerages, wealth management)
    2. Law (corporate law) and lobbying (geared toward state & local governments)
    3. Adverting
    4. Logistics (Trucking)

    Hampton Roads/ Tidewater–
    1. Logistics (Port of Virginia, Norfolk Southern, Trucking)
    2. Defense (Navy)
    3. Leisure (Beaches, Resorts)

  44. not your father's economic developer Avatar
    not your father’s economic developer

    Jim:

    I know these long form posts are hard to track, but below Groveton goes several steps beyond pushing back on subsidies to rural infrastructure.

    "We need people to leave those places and head for the clusters. Not everybody has to leave, just enough to reduce the population to a point where there is mid term economic sustainability. I'd guess that this is about an average of 30% reduction in population over the next 10 – 20 years."

    As to cluster "forecasting," if folks can get their hands on the study of innovation assets that SRI did for VEDP a couple of years ago. It is a pretty good roadmap and my sense is that the agency is really using it. It uses this form of analysis to its best advantage primarily as a regionally focused asset scan that can speak to reasonable efforts to add to the value chain. Any casual list based on eyeballing existing firms will probably give you an answer based on mass of firm activity rather than how the firms interact.

  45. not your father's economic developer Avatar
    not your father’s economic developer

    EM

    I've generally tried to remain a respectful conscientious objector to the new language here in Bacon-land. I don't always disagree with the underlying point you're trying to make but I have enough trouble keeping real world jargon straight.

    With that in mind I was pleased to find one of your phrases connecting with my world:

    "‘Rural’ is a Core Confusing Word…"

    The best research describes communities by density on a continuum. In fact it might be Porter in thee study I referenced, who essentially makes the argument that urban, suburban and rural and not particularity useful in an analytical sense and we would be better off focused on relative density. Along these lines USDA publishes an index of relative rurality that's pretty even useful even in the converse (urbanity).

    And for what its worth if you review disbursal of communities across the existing census classification structures of metropolitan, micropolitan, and rural you'll find there's very little defined as rural anyway. The trend is to focus on economic interactions between communities at different scales (with commuting generally as the marker)and that points us to regions and value chains as you suggest.

    Although of course as a practical matter this plays out kind hierarchically where NOVA dissasociates itself from ROVA, the MSAs in the 64/95 corridors dissasscoiate themselves form the rest of the state, and the smaller MSAs dissassociate themselves from whatever is left. A prejorative rural tag, or an assumption that one place in the value chain is superior to the others, gets factored into an assumption that the rich are robbing the poor in terms of passing out goodies in DC and Richmond. Lot's of dumb infrastructure decisions are made around the state. The list in rural areas is plenty long, but underwriting competition among localities in urban regions for retail and office isn't always done with a lot of smarts in the sense that commentators in this thread seem to be looking for.

    Ultimately in a federal union with immutable state boundaries we're all stuck with each other ans it would behoove us to find better answers than Groveton's suggestion to zero out higher ed outside of the 64/95 corridor and by bus tickets for 30% of the population in the rest of the state to move to that urban crescent.

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