Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

VOVID-19 Update: Turning Point

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James A. Bacon
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by James A. Bacon

Holy smokes! The latest data suggests that COVID-19 epidemic has not only peaked in Virginia but has begun receding. The contagion is not over by a long shot — we could even get a bounce back later in the year —  but the trends are moving in a positive direction right now.

New hospitalizations have stabilized, the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals is declining and the number of patients receiving intensive treatment by being placed in ICUs or on ventilators is steadily going down.

Although a record 1,055 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the numbers compiled yesterday (and reported this morning), that’s only because a massive number of tests — almost three time larger than in any previous day — were reported to the Virginia Department of Health (VDH). The good news is that the 14,805 tests yielded only a 7.1% positive rate, the lowest rate since the end of March.

Governor Ralph Northam has set a goal of a minimum of 10,000 tests per day as a pre-condition for relaxing emergency restrictions on social and economic activity. If the surge in testing indicated in today’s results published by the VDH is sustained, the lifting of some measures may not be far off.

Here are the numbers you’ve all been hoping for. From the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association:

Total COVID-19 patients  hospitalized (confirmed and pending test results): 1,432, down 119
COVID-19 patients in the ICU: 366, down six
COVID-19 patients on ventilators: 193, down 15
Hospitals expecting difficulty replenishing PPEs: two

I previously rejected the VDH’s COVID-19 “confirmed” cases count as a meaningful metric for the spread of the virus (a) because it represents only a small fraction of all COVID cases, and (b) it reflects the volume of testing and protocols used rather than the actual incidence of the disease. The data reported today totally validates my approach. The number of new cases jumped by more than 1,000, but only because a flood of test results were reported to VDH. The percentage of positive tests declined precipitously to 7.1%. Clearly, a large volume of tests from commercial labs, which test a wider cross-section of the population, are flowing into the VDH now.

It’s a beautiful day here in Henrico County. Go outside and get some fresh air and sunshine. Ultra violet rays are a great COVID-19 killer. Just be sure to continue maintaining a respectful social distance!

Update: John Butcher provides this graph from the IMHE model  developed by the University of Washington. Many have been critical of the model for overstating the severity of the COVID-19 spread. Whatever. Today, it agrees with me, and that’s all that matters!

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34 responses to “VOVID-19 Update: Turning Point”

  1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The COVID-19 news in the DOC microcosm is not quite as rosy. The total number of active positive cases increased by only 16 and the total number of hospitalizations remained unchanged, but there was a worrisome development.

    After remaining fairly stable for several days after the completion of point prevalence testing, the number of positive cases at Deerfield, the facility housing DOC’s geriatric and assisted living populations, increased by 9, from 65 t0 74, and the number of hospitalizations increased from 1 to 2.

    The system summary:

    Summary of COVID-19 Cases in Va. Dept. of Corrections
    As of 5:00 p.m., April 30

    Cumulative testing positive 496
    Total Deaths 3
    Active positive cases in facilities 419
    Number in hospital 10
    Recovered 64
    Staff currently tested positive 67

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Positives = Actives + recovered + hospitalized + deaths

      496 = 419+64+10+3

      I just love it when numbers add up.

      Now, the 14,805 tests reported today in a state that never reported even 6,000 test results in a single day gives me pause. But who knows? Maybe Trump finally bailed Northam out.

  2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The COVID-19 news in the DOC microcosm is not quite as rosy. The total number of active positive cases increased by only 16 and the total number of hospitalizations remained unchanged, but there was a worrisome development.

    After remaining fairly stable for several days after the completion of point prevalence testing, the number of positive cases at Deerfield, the facility housing DOC’s geriatric and assisted living populations, increased by 9, from 65 t0 74, and the number of hospitalizations increased from 1 to 2.

    The system summary:

    Summary of COVID-19 Cases in Va. Dept. of Corrections
    As of 5:00 p.m., April 30

    Cumulative testing positive 496
    Total Deaths 3
    Active positive cases in facilities 419
    Number in hospital 10
    Recovered 64
    Staff currently tested positive 67

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Positives = Actives + recovered + hospitalized + deaths

      496 = 419+64+10+3

      I just love it when numbers add up.

      Now, the 14,805 tests reported today in a state that never reported even 6,000 test results in a single day gives me pause. But who knows? Maybe Trump finally bailed Northam out.

  3. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Fairfax Co. had 288 new cases today, which is a whopper. I would not know if this is a figment of testing, but the Dept of Health is not yet announcing peak reached.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      That could be due to the increased testing. But DC has 224 COVID 19 deaths or 1 death per 3,134 residents. Fairfax County has 114 COVID 19 deaths or 1 death per 9,649 residents. Why the difference? Population density? Wealth and poverty? Or has the virus just not really gotten to Fairfax County yet?

      1. TBill Avatar
        TBill

        In DC, I believe over 80% of deaths are hitting the black community. Conversely in Fairfax Co., we seem to be showing Hispanics community is hit hardest, with blacks, whites, Asian seemingly not impacted as much. Presumably pop density is a factor, and I think NoVa benefited from from being the western edge of the pandemic, with DC and MD cases convincing NoVA to close schools suddenly on Mar-13.

        Intuitively it seemed like DC region would get hit hard, due to travel from around the world, so we were on edge to react faster probably. We were lucky. A few more days of school and who knows?

  4. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Fairfax Co. had 288 new cases today, which is a whopper. I would not know if this is a figment of testing, but the Dept of Health is not yet announcing peak reached.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      That could be due to the increased testing. But DC has 224 COVID 19 deaths or 1 death per 3,134 residents. Fairfax County has 114 COVID 19 deaths or 1 death per 9,649 residents. Why the difference? Population density? Wealth and poverty? Or has the virus just not really gotten to Fairfax County yet?

      1. TBill Avatar
        TBill

        In DC, I believe over 80% of deaths are hitting the black community. Conversely in Fairfax Co., we seem to be showing Hispanics community is hit hardest, with blacks, whites, Asian seemingly not impacted as much. Presumably pop density is a factor, and I think NoVa benefited from from being the western edge of the pandemic, with DC and MD cases convincing NoVA to close schools suddenly on Mar-13.

        Intuitively it seemed like DC region would get hit hard, due to travel from around the world, so we were on edge to react faster probably. We were lucky. A few more days of school and who knows?

  5. Ben Slone Avatar
    Ben Slone

    More UV radiation (and vit. D), heat, and humidity. Corona viruses don’t like that trio.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      It hates soap too. Have you tried it?

      1. Ben Slone Avatar
        Ben Slone

        I use soap many times a day. How about you?

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Uh yep, love the stuff. But when it comes to the car, clear water wash only.

  6. Ben Slone Avatar
    Ben Slone

    More UV radiation (and vit. D), heat, and humidity. Corona viruses don’t like that trio.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      It hates soap too. Have you tried it?

      1. Ben Slone Avatar
        Ben Slone

        I use soap many times a day. How about you?

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          Uh yep, love the stuff. But when it comes to the car, clear water wash only.

  7. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Poor Jim. I haven’t seen anyone so excited for an event since Alvin for Christmas.

    Peak infection time is near
    Time for tats and time for nails
    We’ve been good, but we can’t last
    Hurry Covid, hurry fast

  8. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Poor Jim. I haven’t seen anyone so excited for an event since Alvin for Christmas.

    Peak infection time is near
    Time for tats and time for nails
    We’ve been good, but we can’t last
    Hurry Covid, hurry fast

  9. vaconsumeradvocate Avatar
    vaconsumeradvocate

    But… The Times Dispatch says we haven’t reached that turning point. ” COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are still rising in Virginia” This article also says that we can expect 10% positive tests but Virginia is getting 17%.

    https://www.richmond.com/special-report/coronavirus/covid-19-cases-and-hospitalizations-are-still-rising-in-virginia/article_cb3e6c9a-e317-56d9-b58b-0b645a50bfa8.html

  10. vaconsumeradvocate Avatar
    vaconsumeradvocate

    But… The Times Dispatch says we haven’t reached that turning point. ” COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are still rising in Virginia” This article also says that we can expect 10% positive tests but Virginia is getting 17%.

    https://www.richmond.com/special-report/coronavirus/covid-19-cases-and-hospitalizations-are-still-rising-in-virginia/article_cb3e6c9a-e317-56d9-b58b-0b645a50bfa8.html

  11. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think the implicit premise that since we are seeing downward trending data is feeding the sentiment that it’s time to “open back up”.

    And the reality is that we’ve been socially distancing for some time and only now are we starting to see some stabilization as a result of of those behaviors.

    We have virtually no idea what happens if we loosen restrictions.

    It’s not a reason to not try to start back but the risk is that such loosening results in more contagion – and we won’t know that it’s happened for days, weeks and by that time – who knows what happens?

    Some of us are telling others to go run and hide because we’re “going to open up” and only the most fit will survive or some such less-than-intelligent blather.

    I’m actually quite amazed as how much a fair number of us are willing to roll-the-dice, it’s nowher near a “calculated risk” – it reminds me of what I’ve heard from cigarette smokers… along the lines of ” oh no, it won’t be me, besides I’m gonna quit”.

    😉

    I’m NOT advocating staying locked down, we should try to re-open but we also should be smart enough to know that it is with great risk that we do so – and what we see right now ain’t nothing compared to what it will be if we actually end up with a lot more infection spread.

    This is why it is so imperative that we not only test a lot more but than we do substantial contact tracing to catch as many infected as we possibly can – knowing that we just don’t have the resources to do it 100%, it will, in fact, have to be on a priority basis for those who are returning to work.

    The 10,000 number is not a number worth arguing about no more than the 6 ft spacing number or 10 people together number, etc, etc… Most of these numbers are a bit of seat-of-the-pants (and they may well vary as we evolve) but they are coming from people who do have some background so that it’s not just numbers coming out of some guys hat on a blog.

  12. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think the implicit premise that since we are seeing downward trending data is feeding the sentiment that it’s time to “open back up”.

    And the reality is that we’ve been socially distancing for some time and only now are we starting to see some stabilization as a result of of those behaviors.

    We have virtually no idea what happens if we loosen restrictions.

    It’s not a reason to not try to start back but the risk is that such loosening results in more contagion – and we won’t know that it’s happened for days, weeks and by that time – who knows what happens?

    Some of us are telling others to go run and hide because we’re “going to open up” and only the most fit will survive or some such less-than-intelligent blather.

    I’m actually quite amazed as how much a fair number of us are willing to roll-the-dice, it’s nowher near a “calculated risk” – it reminds me of what I’ve heard from cigarette smokers… along the lines of ” oh no, it won’t be me, besides I’m gonna quit”.

    😉

    I’m NOT advocating staying locked down, we should try to re-open but we also should be smart enough to know that it is with great risk that we do so – and what we see right now ain’t nothing compared to what it will be if we actually end up with a lot more infection spread.

    This is why it is so imperative that we not only test a lot more but than we do substantial contact tracing to catch as many infected as we possibly can – knowing that we just don’t have the resources to do it 100%, it will, in fact, have to be on a priority basis for those who are returning to work.

    The 10,000 number is not a number worth arguing about no more than the 6 ft spacing number or 10 people together number, etc, etc… Most of these numbers are a bit of seat-of-the-pants (and they may well vary as we evolve) but they are coming from people who do have some background so that it’s not just numbers coming out of some guys hat on a blog.

  13. cjbova Avatar
    cjbova

    Jim, I’ll say the same thing I did when you talked about a plateau in numbers on April 16: I’ll wait for a week of VHHA reports before believing we’ve crested and are on the way down in numbers.

    But I’ve changed my position about reopening the economy. Forget the numbers–just do it, and let those of us who can’t risk exposure stay in voluntary isolation.

  14. cjbova Avatar
    cjbova

    Jim, I’ll say the same thing I did when you talked about a plateau in numbers on April 16: I’ll wait for a week of VHHA reports before believing we’ve crested and are on the way down in numbers.

    But I’ve changed my position about reopening the economy. Forget the numbers–just do it, and let those of us who can’t risk exposure stay in voluntary isolation.

  15. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    gonna hear a lot more about this with regard to meat packing – i.e. our fresh meat supply:

    “Like many meatpacking facilities across the United States, significant sections of the workforce is composed of immigrant and undocumented workers. This particularly oppressed section of the population is acutely vulnerable under conditions of the current pandemic.

    Undocumented immigrants are much less likely to report injuries and contracted illness for fear of deportation or employer reprisal. In 2006, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided the Worthington plant, then owned by Swift & Company, in the largest workplace immigration raid in American history.

    Many undocumented immigrants have avoided state-provided testing programs for fear of detention or deportation, according to state Health Commissioner Jan Malcom.

    With the plant closed, Many of these undocumented workers lack the means to collect any unemployment or supplemental assistance due to their immigration status. “

  16. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    gonna hear a lot more about this with regard to meat packing – i.e. our fresh meat supply:

    “Like many meatpacking facilities across the United States, significant sections of the workforce is composed of immigrant and undocumented workers. This particularly oppressed section of the population is acutely vulnerable under conditions of the current pandemic.

    Undocumented immigrants are much less likely to report injuries and contracted illness for fear of deportation or employer reprisal. In 2006, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided the Worthington plant, then owned by Swift & Company, in the largest workplace immigration raid in American history.

    Many undocumented immigrants have avoided state-provided testing programs for fear of detention or deportation, according to state Health Commissioner Jan Malcom.

    With the plant closed, Many of these undocumented workers lack the means to collect any unemployment or supplemental assistance due to their immigration status. “

  17. A Macaulay Avatar
    A Macaulay

    Are reported deaths from COPD and pneumonia increasing or decreasing? A health care professional argued to me yesterday that deaths typically attributed to COPD and pneumonia are being attributed to COVID. Probably to early to tell, but if COPD and pneumonia deaths are significantly down, some interesting inferences could be drawn.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      That does not sound right. If someone is in a hospital and tests positive for COVID19 and dies, that’s a fact. There are some folks who are saying non-hospital deaths are being counted as COVID19 – and we’re surely not counting all of them as COVID 19 – there has to be some distinction where we’d say someone died of COVID19 or non COVID 19 other than a coin toss.

  18. A Macaulay Avatar
    A Macaulay

    Are reported deaths from COPD and pneumonia increasing or decreasing? A health care professional argued to me yesterday that deaths typically attributed to COPD and pneumonia are being attributed to COVID. Probably to early to tell, but if COPD and pneumonia deaths are significantly down, some interesting inferences could be drawn.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      That does not sound right. If someone is in a hospital and tests positive for COVID19 and dies, that’s a fact. There are some folks who are saying non-hospital deaths are being counted as COVID19 – and we’re surely not counting all of them as COVID 19 – there has to be some distinction where we’d say someone died of COVID19 or non COVID 19 other than a coin toss.

  19. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    A Macaulay, I would not at all be surprised if your health care professional friend was right in his assessment. There is a lot of confusion going on here as to deaths and reasons given therefore. Hence, this charts could bounce around a lot more before this is over in seemingly inexplicable ways. The variables are so complex, and beyond human control, much less accurate projection, this is simply nature of the beast.

  20. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    A Macaulay, I would not at all be surprised if your health care professional friend was right in his assessment. There is a lot of confusion going on here as to deaths and reasons given therefore. Hence, this charts could bounce around a lot more before this is over in seemingly inexplicable ways. The variables are so complex, and beyond human control, much less accurate projection, this is simply nature of the beast.

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