Richmond media and bloggers have been experiencing paroxysms of wonkishness this month following the release of “Putting the Future Together,” by Jim Crupi, a Dallas-based strategic leadership consultant. Some like his work, some don’t. But Crupi’s trenchant observations will assuredly set off a round of soul-searching, just as he did 15 years ago when he laid out the good, the bad and the ugly of Richmond for all to see. (John Sarvay provides a wrap-up of the coverage to date.)

While the Richmond region has made great strides in the past 15 years, Crupi says, it still has a lot of work to do. Race is the 800-pound gorilla in the room that nobody dares talk about. While race relations have demonstrably improved, they would benefit from a candid and open dialogue. But Crupi saved his most trenchant criticism for Richmond’s political, civic and business leaders. While regional leaders excel at tactical excution, he observes, they fail at strategy. The region has no vision for the future that people can rally around.

I totally agree. Unfortunately, I don’t think Crupi has the answers. He certainly generated a lot of ideas for his report — high-speed rail to Northern Virginia, a presidential museum, a new airport, a deep-water report, just to name a few — but he provided no strategic vision. Worse, he didn’t even articulate the criteria for establishing a long-term vision.

But the Richmond establishment seems all geared up to use “Putting the Future Together” as the starting point for a round of discussions. Among other recommendations, Crupi calls for creating a 2015 Metro Future Task Force to get the ball rolling.

While Crupi makes some valid points and advances some intriguing ideas, I take issue with a key presupposition. “By all rights,” he writes, “Richmond should be booming like Atlanta, Charlotte and other metro areas that have experienced growth over the last couple of decades. And yet — it isn’t.” Apparently, that’s a bad thing. The premise underlying the entire report is that Richmond should look like Atlanta and Charlotte, and here’s what it takes to get there.

Needless to say, if I wanted to live in a place like Charlotte or Atlanta, I would move to Charlotte or Atlanta. I like Richmond because it’s not Charlotte or Atlanta. I have huge problems with the philosophy of “growth for growth’s sake.” In my latest e-zine column, “Vision Impaired,” I offer an alternative framework for developing a regional vision. Applying the logic of my “Economy 4.0″ series, I contend that the ultimate goal should be to build a region that is prosperous, livable and sustainable” — none of which requires “bigness.” The region’s four strategic priorities should be:

  • Transforming human settlement patterns so that they can be more efficiently served by transportation, utilities and public services
  • Transforming government institutions, squeezing out administrative costs and delivering services in more creative ways
  • Building human capital (by improving schools, building knowledge-creating institutions, recruiting the creative class, and shaping communities that make smart people want to stay here)

The Richmond region does not need to squander scarce resources on building a tourism industry or in futile pursuit of becoming the capital of the military-industrial complex. We can’t create a prosperous, livable and sustainable region with a handful of “transformational” projects that a few power brokers can agree upon and undwrite. We need to build on our existing strengths, and we need to build from the ground up, creating economic opportunity at all levels of society.

Update: Jon Baliles at River City Rapids offers his suggestions on how to improve the outcome of the visioning process: Listen to the kids!


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21 responses to “Vision Impaired”

  1. You totally nail it, and much more succinctly than my attempts to-date. If Crupi’s report is anything more than a catalyst, we’re all doomed to another ten years of endless task forces and summits and tactical blather (followed by a lot of money poured down a hole). What is a shared vision for the Richmond region, and how do we use that and some set of agreed-upon regional values, to frame and guide the region’s future growth?

  2. Anonymous Avatar

    If Richmond missed out on the 2 most recent economic expansions (Technology & Housing/Construction) then I would agree that something is out of whack.

    But the question is, did it really miss out?

    How big is the housing bust in Richmond? How big was the tech bust in Richmond a few years ago?

    I guess what I am saying is be careful what you wish for.

    Your neighbors to the north are on the front lines of the boom/bust cycle and I can’t say they are much better off for it.

  3. Anonymous Avatar

    Some good ideas on human capital but Jim Bacon’s thinking is colored by the kind of Richmond provicialism that has relegated the city to second rate status since 1865. No matter how Richmonders are in denial, the rest of the world sees Charlotte and Atlanta as the two most important business dynamos in the Southeast.
    Richmond is seen as also-ran, if it is regarded at all.
    One big problem is the local newspaper has been so dumbed down that it reflects poorly on the collective intellect. Sure, the publisher has his rolled-up-sleeves Donahue gimmick called “Public Squares” to make it seem that the paper covers its region, but it truly does not. Instead of meaningful, in-depth coverage, reporters are ordered to write only short, stupid stories. So, we get upteen stories on the Hokie-Cavs game. Front page story selection runs to insipid pieces like “You Drank all the Water” regarding a folk music concert. True the Times-Disgrace printed the Crupi report, but doing so is a lot cheaper than paying several veteran reporters to analyze it.
    The best thing that could happen is that Media General’s stock sinks so low that a decent chain buys it and starts a clean sweep, starting with the publisher and executive editor.
    Then maybe we could have a grown-up newspaper like Charlotte and Atlanta.

  4. I’ve wasted more of my professional career sitting around a conference table talking about “vision” than all of the other wastes of time added together. In the end, I have seen two approaches that work:

    1. Intuitive leadership – kind of the Google approach. A couple of really smart guys have a few good ideas driven by fundamental economic trends. They stick to the pursuit of those ideas and bet they were right all along.

    2. Grinding analysis – kind of the General Electric approach. A farily large and very well educated / compensated planning team grinds out model after model and analysis after analysis. In the end, management still has to make choices but those choices are driven by reams of numbers. It’s hard to explain the quantity of analysis involved but it is very substantial.

    Both approaches work.

    Unfortunately, most companies are stuck in the middle. They stab at lots of different things so they don’t really have strong intuitive leadership. And they never quite have the data or the math required for a grinding analysis. A few people pontificate and opine. There are always lots of good questions but seldom many good answers. In the end, the front line management (not top management) either reacts well to market changes (and the company succeeds through tactical change) or they don’t (and the company fails through tactical change).

    Richmond sounds like one of those many companies “in the middle”. No real intuitive leadership; no real grinding analysis.

    Say what you want about NoVA – we follow the intuitive leadership model of “grow, grow, grow”. Is that the right answer? I don’t really know. Is it better than no approach – oh yeah.

  5. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I don’t put much stock in community “visioning” exercises as current conducted.

    The make-up constituencies is totally bogus and biased and basically portray’s itself as ‘representative” of the community when, in fact, the reps are seriously embedded members of the power structure.

    Their “exuse” is that “everyone was invited” but the process is a cynical one that makes absolutely no effort to embrace and accommodate real ordinary people but instead – to rope-a-dope them into giving up and leaving.

    I’ve seen this over and over. whether it is a community visioning process, or a VDOT “meet and greet” process or even a School Board budget process.

    In the end.. what they want is “token” citizens and certainly no citizens that might actually challenge the status quo.

    In my opinion – NO citizen group is worth spit unless it is truly reflective of the demographics in the community.

    When I think of the folks who make up a community and then hear folks talking about the need to be “inclusive” of the “creative class”, I know what is going on.. That is the power structures little dance to “pack” the namelist with whos-whos in the community.

    GRUMP!

    If you want a citizens visioning process – put the citizens in charge of it.. even if they overlook a few “important” people.

  6. not ralph ellison Avatar
    not ralph ellison

    “Race is the 800-pound gorilla in the room that nobody dares talk about. While race relations have demonstrably improved, they would benefit from a candid and open dialogue.”

    Jim, just what would a dialogue on race accomplish for this region? Are race relations in Richmond “worse” than in Atlanta and Charlotte? Are racial dialogues on the calendar in those two places? Everybody talks about talking about race, but nobody does. It has become a boilerplate “problem” that everyone has to acknowledge ritualistically before moving on to more concrete issues.

  7. E M Risse Avatar

    At 1:28 PM, Anonymous said…

    …….

    “No matter how Richmonders are in denial, the rest of the world sees Charlotte and Atlanta as the two most important business dynamos in the Southeast.”

    A MINDLESS PLUG FOR BUSINESS AS USUSAL AND THE CURRENT UNSUSTAINABLE TRAJECTORY

    WHAT CITIZENS NEED IS A DYNAMO FOR SAFETY AND HAPPINESS

    GROVETON’S PROSPECT ON DOING SOMETHING ABOUT INCOME INEQUITY IS A PLACE TO START

    ……….

    “One big problem is the local newspaper has been so dumbed down that it reflects poorly on the collective intellect.”

    HERE IS ANOTHER PLACE TO START AS WE SUGGEST IN OUR CURRENT COLUMN AND IN COMING PARTS III. AND IV. OF THE ESTATES MATRIX

    ………..

    “Instead of meaningful, in-depth coverage, reporters are ordered to write only short, stupid stories.”

    AND THE REASONS FOR THAT ARE? …….

    “The best thing that could happen is that Media General’s stock sinks so low that a decent chain buys it and starts a clean sweep, starting with the publisher and executive editor.”

    ANON, YOU HAVE NOT BEEN PAYING ATTENTION. AS BAD AS THEY ARE, NAME ONE PLACE WHERE A BIG CHAIN BOUGHT A FAMILY OR SMALLER CHAIN PAPER AND THE QUALITY IMPORVED OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AND I WILL SHOW YOU A SMALL, ISSOLATED BETA COMMUNITY.

    ………..

    “Then maybe we could have a grown-up newspaper like Charlotte and Atlanta.”

    SURELY YOU JEST!

    jim Bacon is absolutely right “transformational projects” will not solve any New Urban Region’s dysfunctions and are likely to make them worse.

    See “The Shape of Richmond’s Future” at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com.

    EMR

  8. Jim Bacon Avatar

    Not Ralph Ellison, Did I write that quote — or did Jim Crupi? Actually, I’m inclined to agree with you. The more we “talk about race,” the more we dig into entrenched positions. My personal belief is that the best thing to do is NOT talk about race: to treat everyone as INDIVIDUALS. The more we interact as individuals, the more we realize that race is a pretty useless concept.

    Unfortunately, there are two groups of people in America who don’t want to let race go. The first is the die-hard racists who just can’t reconcile themselves to a pluralistic society. My sense is that most of these people are dying out… literally. They’re certainly relegated to the fringes of the national conversation.

    The other group consists of those who view everything through the prism of race/gender/class. These people are not dying out — quite the opposite. The more obsessed the American people become with race, gender and class, the more power and influence this group wields. It’s in their self interest to perpetuate racial consciousness, therefore, they do everything they can to foster it. They are all too happy to talk, talk, talk — but only on their own terms. Express the wrong view, and you’ll be stifled.

  9. Anonymous Avatar

    Mr. Riosse,
    I sure as hell have been paying attention. The Richmond paper sucks. Atlanta and Charlottee have better ones. Richmond is NOT regarded as a premier Southern city. Who are you anyway to tell anyone they have not been ‘Paying attention?” This is a blog, not a classroom where you are the GD teacher! My opinion counts every bit as yours does. How dare you assume a higher level of knowledge in anything?

    anon

  10. Anonymous Avatar

    Abstract

    “This research project sought to determine whether high-population density or some other aggregate land use characteristic can be used to create beneficial effects on travel behavior at the level of the entire urbanized area. The research also looked at gaining a better understanding of the reasons for variations in travel behavior across large U.S. cities. This research involved a comprehensive analysis, considering an unusually large number of factors. Researchers also developed a number of ways to describe aggregate “macro” land use in an urbanized area specifically for this study. The study found that land use, at the aggregate level studied in this project, is not a major leverage point in determining overall population travel choices. Much policy seems to be based on the belief that relatively small changes to land use will have a big impact on travel choices. The findings here imply just the opposite – that even very big, widespread differences in land use have very little impact on travel behavior, in good ways or in bad ways.”

    Gary Barnes
    September 2001
    Report no. Mn/DOT 2001-24
    Projects: Population Density and Travel in U.S. Cities
    Topics: Economics, Planning

    Transforming human settlement patterns so that they can be more efficiently served by transportation, utilities and public services is a joke, a bad joke.

    RH

  11. Danny L. Newton Avatar
    Danny L. Newton

    If transforming human settlement patters is the same thing as zoning, then where is the ideal zoning in the country? The fact is that small and even medium size cities copy their ordinances from slightly larger cities. Zoning discipline is eroded over time by variances to a point that the effect is mediocrity and a submission to economic realities.
    Zoning may, in time, freeze a desired outcome for a few years but then prevents the land use from being fluid and able to adapt to national and state changes in economic policy. Has zoning every stopped the decline of a neighborhood?

  12. E M Risse Avatar

    At 1:49 PM, Anonymous said…

    Mr. Riosse,

    YOUR VIEWS WOULD BE MORE HIGHLY VALUED IF YOU WERE MORE CAREFUL WITH YOUR SPELLING.

    I sure as hell have been paying attention. The Richmond paper sucks.

    THAT IS A BROADLY HELD VIEW.

    Atlanta and Charlottee have better ones.

    BUT HOW MUCH BETTER?

    Richmond is NOT regarded as a premier Southern city.

    ARE WE TALKING ABOUT THE “CITY” OR THE NEW URBAN REGION WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY LIVE IN EACH OF THE URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS?

    NOT HIGHLY REGARDED BY WHOM? HOW DOES DO THESE THREE REGIONS RANK ON THE UN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT CRITERIA OF LIFE EXPECTANCY, EDUCATIONAL LEVELS AND REAL PER CAPITA INCOME?

    Who are you anyway to tell anyone they have not been ‘Paying attention?”

    IF ONES COMMENTS REFLECT AN APPARENT LACK OF UNDERSTANDING, THAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD WAY TO DESCRIBE IT. WOULD YOU PERFER AN EVALUATION OF POSTERS IQ?

    This is a blog, not a classroom where you are the GD teacher! My opinion counts every bit as yours does. How dare you assume a higher level of knowledge in anything?

    AN INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE AND ONE FOUND OFTEN ON THE PATH TO ENTROPY.

    EMR

  13. Anonymous Avatar

    In any natural process there exists an inherent tendency towards the dissipation of useful energy. The measure of this tendency is called entropy. Increasing entropy is a natural and unavoidable condition.

    Since we are all on what you call the path to entropy, as if is were a place rather than a quantity, I guess we are all entitled to our perspectives on the way.

    RH

  14. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: Gary Barnes

    yup – he’s a real live Transportation Economist

    and here is some of his conclusions:

    More Time Behind the Wheel

    Gary Barnes researches variables affecting commute times in Minnesota

    “Barnes concluded that the reasons for a statewide increase in commute times were still unknown, especially in the face of rising gas prices. He speculated that improvements in car reliability and comfort, the ubiquity of cell phones (making commuters feel safer and more productive on long commutes), and the ability to search for distant jobs and housing via the Internet may explain the change. “

    http://www.research.umn.edu/spotlight/barnes.html

    you gotta be kidding.. he spends all of this time and money on his studies to conclude – the above?

    This guy obviously has a tenured position. 🙂

  15. E M Risse Avatar

    At 4:01 PM, Danny L. Newton said…

    “If transforming human settlement patters (sic) is the same thing as zoning,:”

    They are NOT the same thing from ANY perspective.

    “… then where is the ideal zoning in the country?”

    There is no ideal zoning in the US of A and that fact is not in dispute.

    There more important fact is that there are few examples of functional human settlement patterns above the Alpha Neighborhood scale and none above the Alpha Village scale at least as they contribute to Alpha (Balanced) Communities.

    This fact has many ramifications. For example any purported attempt to “study” the impact of alternative settlement patterns that considers existing distributions of urban land uses is a waste of time. The same is true for “cost of service” studies as noted in “The Shape of the Future.”

    As Larry Gross’s post above suggests, those who attempt to draw conclusions from existing patterns and densities come to conclusions that support those who fund the studies – those who favor Business-As-Usual.

    “The fact is that small and even medium size cities copy their ordinances from slightly larger cities.”

    That is by in large true.

    “Zoning discipline is eroded over time by variances to a point that the effect is mediocrity and a submission to economic realities.”

    Well stated.

    “Zoning may, in time, freeze a desired outcome for a few years but then prevents the land use from being fluid and able to adapt to national and state changes in economic policy.”

    Zoning and other land use controls as well as municipal “comprehensive” plans are a tragically flawed attempt to shape human settlement patterns as documented in “The Role of Municipal Planning in creating Dysfunctional Human Settlement Patterns” at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

    “Has zoning every stopped the decline of a neighborhood?

    Perhaps at the Dooryard or Cluster scale but it is doubtful at the Alpha Neighborhood scale.

    EMR

  16. E M Risse Avatar

    Jim Bacon:

    I agree with you about “the two groups of people in America who don’t want to let race go.”

    You are right on vis-a-vis the second group who view everything through the prism of race / gender / class. For example, members of these groups oppose attempts to rationalize governance structure because it would dilute their power. (NB, we are NOT pointing a finger at any one race, gender or class, they all do it.)

    I tend to disagree that the first group of “die-hard racists” is are “dying out… literally.”

    I am afraid this is a genetic proclivity that is deeply rooted in human society. They are “relegated to the fringes of the national conversation” by operation of the 20% / 60% / 20% Guideline (See GLOSSARY under Percentage Guidelines.) Give these ideas a fertile environment (and not fear of being outed by the 80% and they spring up after generations in remission.

    As your comment suggests they are best addressed at the Household, Dooryard and Cluster scales and not by enforcement of “state” or “national” law.

  17. Anonymous Avatar

    Anon 1:49 et. al.

    You said:

    “My opinion counts every bit as yours does. How dare you assume a higher level of knowledge in anything?”

    Perhaps you missed the title of the last post “Bacons Rebellion: The Thinking Mans Blog”

    You also neglected to answer the question to indicate you are (or were) paying attention:

    “AS BAD AS THEY ARE, NAME ONE PLACE WHERE A BIG CHAIN BOUGHT A FAMILY OR SMALLER CHAIN PAPER AND THE QUALITY IMPORVED OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AND I WILL SHOW YOU A SMALL, ISSOLATED BETA COMMUNITY.”

    We await your reply Mr. “My opinion counts…”

    Anon Zoro and Zora

  18. Jim Bacon Avatar

    Ed, An argument can be made that xenophobia is ingrained in the human genome. Xenophobia, as usually defined, is a fear or hatred of foreigners. It can also be a fear or hatred of “others,” as in those of different races and cultures. Traditionally, those have been the ways that people have expressed xenophobia in Western Civilization.

    I think the xenophobia “gene” (or complex of genes) is a bit more plastic that implied by fear of foreigners. I think that it is human nature to draw distinctions between “us” and “them,” in-groups and out-groups. Thus, we observe that people who are committed pluralists and anti-racists and anti-jingoists, who oppose the traditional expressions of xenophobia, sometimes tend to display the very characteristics they despise — stereotyping and disdaining their “others.” The difference is that their “others” are comprised of fundamentalists, cultural conservatives, Bush supporters, and other sub-humans. In my observation, the venom emanating from the left is just as bad, or worse, than the venom from the right.

    The challenge is to create institutions and values in U.S. society so that this negative energy is channeled in a constructive way — or at least a non-destructive way — if humanly possible. In Western Civilization, we have largely succeeded in channeling aggression in non-harmful ways. Perhaps we can do the same with xenophobia.

  19. A Virginian Avatar
    A Virginian

    Has anyone besides me noticed that the Crupi report is full of grammatical errors and is poorly edited? Capitalization is random. Terms that should be capitalized are not and words that shouldn’t be are. Standards must be slipping within the Richmond business community for such a sloppy report to be accepted.

  20. E M Risse Avatar

    Jim Bacon:

    Right on!

    That is why understanding the genetic need for Dooryards, Clusters, Neighborhoods and Villages is so important and why these places with which citizens identify (all the scales) need to be diverse.

    EMR

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