Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Virginia’s New, Post-Covid Population Growth Reality

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James A. Bacon
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by James A. Bacon

Population growth patterns are shifting within Virginia. So far during the current decade, Virginia’s two largest metropolitan areas — Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads — have been losing population due to net migration (more people moving out than moving in). The trend, evident before the Covid epidemic, became more pronounced during and after.

Meanwhile, Richmond has emerged as the state’s new in- migration growth leader. And in an encouraging turnabout, Virginia’s smaller metros (collectively) and rural localities (collectively) have been gaining population through in-migration as well, according to analysis by Hamilton Lombard at the Demographics Research Group of the University of Virginia.

The fastest growth is occurring in a string of non-urban counties stretching from Stafford in the north to Chesterfield in the south (shown in dark blue).

“The same pattern of out-migration seen in Northern Virginia is occurring in most of the country’s largest metropolitan areas, indicating that a wider demographic shift is taking place,” writes Lombard. “The rise of remote work has helped fuel this shift, as it offers people the flexibility to move to areas with better living standards and a lower cost of living.”

“The explosion in remote work during the pandemic and its persistence since then,” he continues, “is shaping up to be the most impactful demographic trend since expansion of suburbs and exurbs after World War II.”

It is important to note, however, that Virginia’s overall population growth (which reflects births and deaths as well as in/out migration) lagged the national numbers between 2010 and 2023 and was trounced by growth in the South Atlantic states. Richmond and the smaller metros cannot compare to Northern Virginia as an economic growth engine.

As Virginia’s public policy lurches ever more forcefully to the left (see Steve Haner’s post preceding this one), the Old Dominion looks to be a perennial weak sister among the dynamic South Atlantic states.

Read Lombard’s analysis for the details.

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57 responses to “Virginia’s New, Post-Covid Population Growth Reality”

  1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    So people have moved from Fairfax to Loudoun. Nothing new there. We were in the “well over 4%” category for quite some time. Loudoun is now solidly blue. Same thing is happening as populations move further out looking for affordable real estate – encouraged and accelerated by remote work options. Just a microcosm of the shift to blue across Virginia and the southeast US for that matter.

  2. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    Tidewater seems fairly inconsequential.
    NoVa makes a lot of sense – traffic and not having to show up at work? Heck yeah, get paid from somewhere else.
    Growth in smaller metro and rural makes sense.

    But Richmond grows? MAKES NO SENSE. Incompetent government, can’t even get bills out properly or handle disputes. Schools abysmal. No Monument Avenue. Woke CA and bad crime.
    That many worthless college debt laden kids moving into Scott’s Addition/Manchester?

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      As the map shows, the city of Richmond grew 0-2 percent. The growth for the overall Richmond area was driven by Hanover, Chesterfield, and Goochland counties.

      “Worthless college debt-laden kids moving into Scott’s Addition/Manchester”? Where did you come up with that? Those “worthless” kids are paying out the wazoo in rent for those new units.

      1. walter smith Avatar
        walter smith

        Worthless college debt
        The kids aren’t worthless
        They may be stupid and indoctrinated, but not worthless
        The debt they incurred is almost certainly not worth it purely as “education.” Particularly if the degree is in _____Studies….

  3. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Plenty of indications the pendulum is swinging back on the remote work trend. Maybe not all the way, but more and more employers are demanding time in the office for at least much or most of the week. Was visiting our son and his family in Very Blue Austin and in that tech community, in person is very much expected now.

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    It’s not Richmond. It’s Henrico, Chesterfield, New Kent, Hanover, Goochland, Powhatan suburbs some trending blue, some not, certainly not Hanover so far.

    But population growth means job growth. What’s growing in Richmond? Serious question. There has to be jobs there if
    people are moving in!

    Richmond highways and traffic are not nirvana… but they are not the hellhole NoVa is.

    We can look at the 10 largest employers but all in all, I think Richmond has diverse businesses and more coming because
    the quality of life is decent in the suburbs.

    Like DC, there are parts of Richmond where you don’t want to be at night.

  5. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    Was talking about this with a friend of mine. He said PWC gained population.

    I said, if you exclude the ones below the poverty line, how much did PWC gain?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      My perception is that PWC has become a bedroom community for service/workforce workers who can’t afford the higher dollar rents in NoVa.

      Spotsylvania is becoming similar. We have folks who work in NoVa at schools, police, fire/rescue – but live in Spotsy.

      Spotsy teachers, deputies, fire &rescue, etc work a couple years in spotsy then take a job up north to boost their income, buy a house, have kids, college , etc.

      Some our our “service” workers live out in Orange and Louisa, Caroline.

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        How is Prince William County not in NoVa?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          NoVa lite?

        2. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Prince William county probably wasn’t considered part of NoVA when NoVA used to be a long-distance call from PWC and C&P had a bunch of payphones they installed just across the county line on 28. People from PWC apparently found it cheaper to drive to these payphones than to pay the long-distance charges.

          Inquiring minds wonder why the SCC didn’t work with Contel and C&P to make those calls local…which didn’t end up happening till GTE and Verizon merged in 2000. (They were made “local” calls billed by the minute and unitemized on the bill sometime prior to 1991. Sounds like long-distance to me even if you don’t have to dial 1 to make the call…)

        3. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          It’s certainly part of the SMSA.

      2. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        PWC has become a bedroom community?

        It’s been that way for at least 40 years!

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I know. DUH! stupid comment! How are you able to make a general comment verses a direct reply comment? I don’t see that as an option when I comment.

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I’m just replying from the Disqus notifications page, maybe that’s why?

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            If you put a message here it’s a general comment:

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62b574d50a058e6dafe4c468c2a638c5f8891e6a0b894e9062699f672bd40bee.png

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so how to direct reply to someone?

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Click the “reply” button under the comment

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yep… no option to choose between direct or “all”

          6. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I don’t have that option either. My first comment on this page was created using the box at the top of the page, which makes a new comment not directed at anyone.

  6. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    School boards need to direct the enrollment projections guru to read this. The big box school districts need to carefully consider any major capital improvements plans in the hopper.
    https://statchatva.org/2024/01/16/how-school-enrollment-trends-have-changed-in-a-post-pandemic-virginia/
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30f76eaee97592cf18d659083b55463e39f7e2baf5f145655b2a6ed2a1f82a99.jpg

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Wouldn’t know that in Stafford… multiple schools in the pipeline and worries it’s not enough.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        After the lock down at Brooke Point High the other day I would expect that school’s enrollment to decline. I talked to a teacher at St. Michael’s Archangle High yesterday. They have a waiting list for enrollment. Very reasonably priced to. Impressed with the mix of kids from all sorts of backgrounds.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          No question. If I had a kid at Brooke Pointe, I’d be concerned. This is not unusual. Spotsylvania has had
          similar incidents… High Schools are now reflections of society. There are all kinds good, bad and ugly.
          All kids are born innocent but bad stuff happens on the way to adult.

  7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    So people have moved from Fairfax to Loudoun. Nothing new there. We were in the “well over 4%” category for quite some time. Loudoun is now solidly blue. Same thing is happening as populations move further out looking for affordable real estate – encouraged and accelerated by remote work options. Just a microcosm of the shift to blue across Virginia and the southeast US for that matter.

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Loudoun is included in Virginia. People who moved from Fairfax to Loudoun would not show up on that graph.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/184dca1c6e1f626e9ebf2a5550965621d4a220638ce1e3c3b01abc4eca4e4e1c.jpg

        1. WayneS Avatar
          WayneS

          Sorry, I meant “Loudoun is included in Northern Virginia”.

          Without the “northern” it makes no sense.

          1. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            Loudoun just grows as those who lived in Fairfax and closer ruin the area with their voting choices. They will do the same to Loudoun and I’m not sure where they move after that, any more west would be WVA and they won’t stand for that.

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            It wasn’t always a part of Northern Virginia. Thanks to the migration I cited, it now is. The figure I referenced has it at +0-2 % now, Fairfax at >4%. The migration now goes to Counties further west and south. As the pattern continues, more of these exurban counties will shift blue.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yep. Just like Richmond is and it’s exurban counties are also.

          4. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            Loudoun just grows as those who lived in Fairfax and closer ruin the area with their voting choices. They will do the same to Loudoun and I’m not sure where they move after that, any more west would be WVA and they won’t stand for that.

  8. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Plenty of indications the pendulum is swinging back on the remote work trend. Maybe not all the way, but more and more employers are demanding time in the office for at least much or most of the week. Was visiting our son and his family in Very Blue Austin and in that tech community, in person is very much expected now.

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      I think Hybrid will remain a thing for most, given unless people have school aged children. Child care is still the wild west with not all hours being returned from short staffing.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Don’t know there really was that much in the first place.
      LinkedIn has 4.8M job listings
      4.2M on-site
      329K hybrid
      212K remote

      I’ll bet a lot of those 212K are software development and really can be done remotely.

    3. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      I see my old employer – IBM – reversed itself and wants people in the office more often and demands that their employees live relatively near an office (within 50 miles).

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Well, as the Stones once sang, “You can’t always get what you want…”

        If the work force wants flexibility, they’ll get it, or else the BoBs work for someone else.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Well, as the Stones once sang, “You can’t always get what you want…”

        If the work force wants flexibility, they’ll get it, or else the BoBs work for someone else.

        1. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          “but sometimes you find, you get what you need”. As in, “I need you in the office if I’m going to cut you a pay check.”

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjJCdCXFslY

  9. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    Bunch of recent news stories up here (including from the Supervisors newsletters): Fairfax has 100,000 or so job openings. Presumably the message is, please move back or move in. But our taxes getting similar to NJ, but do not worry that is probably half of what Dems think we should be paying. They will fix that. So the imports had better have lucrative jobs.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      They take the Fairfax jobs and commute to places like Fredericksburg. I-95 has been “upgraded” but it’s an ugly commute unless
      you’re in the express lanes.

  10. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Richmond gained 2020-2023, and gained big time? Stoney must be doing something right.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      The Richmond area gained, not necessarily the city of Richmond.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Or not. Can’t tell from the bar chart.

      2. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        From a regional standpoint you are correct. Most of the growth in ‘Richmond’ is due to population increases in surrounding counties. However, according to the map, the city of Richmond actually did grow at 0-2% (pale yellow on the map).

        Most of the surrounding area grew at a higher rate than the city (light blue to dark blue), but for some reason Charles City County population declined by more than 2%.

        1. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          Not much there, it’s an odd little corner of the state.

          1. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            There’s Charles City Dirt Riders, so that’s something…

  11. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
    f/k/a_tmtfairfax

    While I miss seeing my colleagues in the office several days a week and my friends in McLean, it’s more than offset being closer to my kids who also live in NC. Traffic is much more manageable than in the DC Metro.

    And then there are taxes. The woman who bought our house in McLean paid about $14,600 in real estate taxes. The house is about 2500 square feet on a 6250 sq. ft lot. Last year, we paid about $7440 for a 3300 sq. ft. house on about 21,300 sq. ft. lot. NoVA needs to get control of its government spending.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      And this is why I-95 is chock-a-block between NoVa and Fredericksburg during commute hours.

      We pay millions, billions of dollars to build highways for people to evade paying the taxes and cost of living where they work.

      1. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        Or, alternatively, have to pay billions of dollars to build highways because people cannot afford to live where they work.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          so is it a govt problem?

    2. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      $14,600?

      Wow. My wife and I pay less than 10% of that amount for +/-2,000 SF house on 4 acres. And I don’t use I-95 so Larry cannot accuse me of “evad[ing] the taxes and cost of living where they work”.

      Oh, by the way, my wife and I are satisfied with the level of service we receive from the local government in exchange for our real estate tax dollars.

    3. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      $14,600?

      Wow. My wife and I pay less than 10% of that amount for +/-2,000 SF house on 4 acres. And I don’t use I-95 so Larry cannot accuse me of “evad[ing] the taxes and cost of living where they work”.

      Oh, by the way, my wife and I are satisfied with the level of service we receive from the local government in exchange for our real estate tax dollars.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Oh it’s not just I-95…. all the roads that are spokes to NoVa and congested by commuters.. and need to be “improved” for big bucks.

        Shoudn’t the folks crapping up the roads pay instead of taxpayers who don’t?

    4. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      …I hope that woman had a cheap vehicle

  12. Drive-by Commentator Avatar
    Drive-by Commentator

    I don’t know where you are getting your data but in at least one case your data is WRONG. Very wrong.

    Your map shows my rural county as GROWING 2 – 4 %. NOT SO. In the 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses my county LOST 2-3% in each census. The Census Bureau projection for 2020-2023 is a 2% loss.

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