The Republican primary for Virginia’s 11th Congressional District is being held today. I believe that the results of today’s primary will say a lot about the elections in November. There are two candidates in today’s Republican primary – Pat Herrity and Keith Fimian. The winner will go to the general election against freshman Congressman Gerry Connolly.
Fimian is clearly the choice of the far right wing. He is a successful businessman with limited political experience. He ran against Connolly in November, 2008 (after Republican Tom Davis decided not to seek re-election) and lost badly. He is back hoping for a second chance against Mr. Connolly.
Mr. Herrity is a Fairfax County Supervisor. Politics run deep in the Herrity clan. Pat’s father, Jack Herrity, was a long serving chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. One of the buildings at the Fairfax County Government Center is the Herrity Building, named after Jack Herrity.
While political experience is a theme in this election it is not the central theme. The crux of this primary is a battle between the Republican activists (often referred to as the Tea Party) and the Republican establishment. Fimian is just the activists’ cup of tea, so to speak. He attends the Tea Party rallies, he rails against the possibility of a Day Labor Center in Centreville, he promises no tax hikes. Herrity is very conservative but more subdued. Herrity is even accused of committing the unpardonable sin of voting to raise taxes. In fact, the tax hike which Herrity voted for was a raise in tax rates which was lower than the fall in property assessments. However, neither math nor truth are favorite topics of the Tea Party enthusiasts.
Former Congressman Tom Davis believes that unseating Gerry Connolly is the 45th most likely chance for the Republicans to pick up a seat this November. If he’s right the Republicans would be back in charge of the House if they get far enough down his list to beat Connolly.
But they won’t beat Connolly this November.
Fimian will win today’s primary and lose against Connolly in November. Virginia’s 11th District is not a hotbed of Tea Party activism. While pledging allegiance to the Tea Party can win a primary in the 11th it won’t win a general election. Which is really too bad since Connolly needs to go.
Virginia’s Republicans are, as usual, poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I expect that America’s Republicans will do the same this November.