Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Virginia’s 11th – Precursor to November?

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

The Republican primary for Virginia’s 11th Congressional District is being held today. I believe that the results of today’s primary will say a lot about the elections in November. There are two candidates in today’s Republican primary – Pat Herrity and Keith Fimian. The winner will go to the general election against freshman Congressman Gerry Connolly.

Fimian is clearly the choice of the far right wing. He is a successful businessman with limited political experience. He ran against Connolly in November, 2008 (after Republican Tom Davis decided not to seek re-election) and lost badly. He is back hoping for a second chance against Mr. Connolly.

Mr. Herrity is a Fairfax County Supervisor. Politics run deep in the Herrity clan. Pat’s father, Jack Herrity, was a long serving chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. One of the buildings at the Fairfax County Government Center is the Herrity Building, named after Jack Herrity.

While political experience is a theme in this election it is not the central theme. The crux of this primary is a battle between the Republican activists (often referred to as the Tea Party) and the Republican establishment. Fimian is just the activists’ cup of tea, so to speak. He attends the Tea Party rallies, he rails against the possibility of a Day Labor Center in Centreville, he promises no tax hikes. Herrity is very conservative but more subdued. Herrity is even accused of committing the unpardonable sin of voting to raise taxes. In fact, the tax hike which Herrity voted for was a raise in tax rates which was lower than the fall in property assessments. However, neither math nor truth are favorite topics of the Tea Party enthusiasts.

Former Congressman Tom Davis believes that unseating Gerry Connolly is the 45th most likely chance for the Republicans to pick up a seat this November. If he’s right the Republicans would be back in charge of the House if they get far enough down his list to beat Connolly.

But they won’t beat Connolly this November.

Fimian will win today’s primary and lose against Connolly in November. Virginia’s 11th District is not a hotbed of Tea Party activism. While pledging allegiance to the Tea Party can win a primary in the 11th it won’t win a general election. Which is really too bad since Connolly needs to go.

Virginia’s Republicans are, as usual, poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I expect that America’s Republicans will do the same this November.

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22 responses to “Virginia’s 11th – Precursor to November?”

  1. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    that's not a bad analysis. There are better chances for Republican pick-ups in Va though…depending on who you listen to.

    My question for the tea party folks is a pretty simple one and that is what is the strategic plan especially with regard to the fact that by itself, it will constitute, at best, a 3rd party that would/could become a swing-vote coalition in Congress except for one small thing and that is to remember that they'll not likely side with the Democrats EXCEPT to demonstrate to the establishment Republicans that they'll need the tea party to prevail – assuming that the tea party + the establishment Republicans actually constitute a majority.

    So the tea party cannot directly drive an agenda but they could, if they have a strategic concept, affect legislation.

    I'm not smart enough or knowledgeable enough to be able to compare/contrast the tea party with what I think might be their European counterparts that comprise about 1/3 of the legislative body of some of the countries.

    It's clear that the tea party has touched a nerve with more than a few folks but the real question is – are these folks the same far right wing of the Republicans that has always been there… but now have broken out and apart or are they, as some claim, also independents and even some Democrats.

    Here's what we do know – they're not likely going to be a stand-alone, in charge, drive the legislative agenda – anytime soon.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I think it's a pretty good analysis, but for one omission. There are a number of Tea Party people who are not also Republicans or even Republican leaning. As I recall, there was a survey from April that found 4 in 10 Tea Party supporters also viewed themselves as Democrats. "Tea Party: 4 in 10 are Dems, Independents, Survey Says" http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20001743-503544.html

    Suppose the poll was wrong by 50%. There still are lots of good Democrats and Independents who think the federal government (probably state and local too) are out of control and too influenced by special interests. The latter, IMO, affects both Democrats and Republicans alike.

    TMT

  3. Lloyd the Idiot Avatar
    Lloyd the Idiot

    Agree 100% on the uncanny ability of Republican extremists to go overboard, convinced of a mandate to go back to the gold standard and the 3/5 compromise.

    http://www.lloydtheidiot.com

  4. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Groveton:

    Based on the vote in the 11th and the voting in the rest of the Commonwealth and the ladies victory across the nation-state, you hit the nail on the head.

    Congratulations!

    Also I do not recall anyone thanking you for the cite to the HOME movie.

    It is very good.

    Some lapses in chronology — ode to trees before discussion of top soil etc — but worth every minute.

    Thank you for the heads up.

    EMR

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I know both Connolly and Herrity. Don't know Fimian or anything about him. I think Herrity might have been a stronger candidate, but he has some baggage, cosiness to big real estate developers – not on the scale of Connolly, but a real issue nonetheless.

    I don't think Connolly is taking this election lightly. He is a very confident person, but when I last saw him at an event in mid-May, he was definitely a bit nervous and even somewhat defensive.

    I don't know what baggage Fimian carries, but Connolly has bludgeoned just about every good Democrat in Fairfax County one way or another. Might some of them sit on their hands as a chance to remove Connolly from political power? Probably some would. Also, a lot of people are riled because of the messes being created by HOT Lanes construction along the Beltway and the elevated Dulles Rail line through Tysons that are being built to serve Connolly's developer pals. Is this enough? Don't count Gerry out, but also recall that his hand-picked school board candidate, John Jennison, lost to Patty Reed, a political novice, last fall. It should be an interesting race.

    TMT

  6. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    TMT:

    Good points – all. Jet Fuel Gerry is already running the robo-calls telling voters that he broke with the Democratic Party establishment by voting against a recent spending bill. He's nervous – as he should be.

    Herrity has some relatively mild baggage – I agree with that.

    Fimian is pretty clean. There is a rumor that he got arrested for assualt while in college 35 years ago. If true, I'd guess some kind of college bar fight. Not exactly Earth shattering new. There was also some kind of lien placed on his business some time ago. Again, seems more like smoke than fire.

    I think the Connolly approach will be to paint Fimian as a politically inexperienced, wild eyed Tea Party nut. A rich guy who has only shown an interest in public service or politics in the last few years. Fimian can definitely come across as something of an egomaniac when he talks.

    The problem I see for the Republicans is that relatively moderate guys like Herrity can't win the primaries against Tea Party faithful like Fimian. That's all well and good in the primary. In the general election it's another story. Places like Springfield are hardly hotbeds of Tea Party fervor.

    Having won the primary, Fimian needs to start back-pedaling on the heavy handed Tea Pary rhetoric. The faithful are already in his corner and will come out to vote just to vote against the much hated Connolly. The key, as always, is those undecided voters in the middle. A few videos of Fimian ranting and raving at various Tea Party outings might be just enough to push the middle to Connolly.

    However, Fimian has a good role model in Virginia. Bob McDonnell really was an artist in the governor's election. He remade himself from a vision of fire breathing conservatism to a much more moderate image. My personal belief is that he hadn't really been a fire breather in years but he needed that image for the base. My further opinion is that he isn't that much of a moderate now but he needed that image in the general election.

    In politics, perception is reality.

    Fimian needs to go into "calm, cool and collected mode" as of today.

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "Fimian needs to go into "calm, cool and collected mode" as of today"

    No, Fimian needs to show votes just exactly who he is with no spin.

    Then citizens need a transition to a system of governance that rewards effort and reality, not perception.

    Groveton, we were counting on you to use your Enterprise skills to lead us out of politics with a small 'p'.

    Observer

  8. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I love the central theme of Groveton's advice: " try to look reasonable and not like some kind of a wacko".

    yes indeed.

    this has, in fact, become the central strategy of the tea bag movement in attracting independents and Democrats.

    I call some of these folks the clueless middle because their opinions can and are changed by the latest sound-bite ad or FAUX news Rant.

    The bigger question is – will these folks stay with the tea party once they find out that many of them think like Rand Paul and Dick Armey?

    I give Dick Armey credit. The man is a genius in being able to recast the hide-bound conservative culture as a …ahem… "reform" movement AND fool enough independents and Democrats to believe it but like I said… many of these folks – are people that cannot even name the Congressman and State Delegates from their own district until they are "informed" of that fact by the tea bag organizers.

    I still love the phrase "keep your filthy government hands off of my Medicare".

  9. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Given Obsserver's points along with those from LarryG – I may be confusing people. I am not giving advice. I am commenting on how I believe the election will unfold. The Tea Party candidates who joined the protests, etc during the primary will try to look a lot more moderate as the general election approaches. Some (like Bob McDonnell) will make the flip – flop work. Others will not. To get a better picture of the general election – watch the Tea Party candidated. Those who back pedal have a chance. Those who continue to sing the Tea Party song will be defeated.

  10. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Well..I think Groveton's point was understood. I was expressing skepticism that that the same candidate that the tea party affectionadoes love can change their stripes sufficiently to gain votes from beyond the ranks of the disaffected – from the mainstream independents and unconfused, unrudderless folks to their left.

    Look at what Rand Paul did when the was probed for more detail on his philosophies.

    So.. is Groveton suggesting that ..for example.. Rand Paul when asked about the Civil Rights Act and private business should have said something different than what he said…apparently believes but when confronted with the reality of his general election potential.. basically reconfigures his public statement but not his base philosophy?

    I'm not sure this kind of thing is possible anymore because virtually anything that a candidate has said – even before they were a candidate is captured and subject to the 24 hr news cycle.

    Even as Rand Paul was backpedaling.. the media that was reporting his "new" position was also comparing it his previous position.

    Now the question is with that kind of scrutiny can that work?

    Claiming Bob McDonnell is a closet Tea Party guy is a stretch, no?

    12% of Republicans voted for Catherin Craybill in the 1st Congressional District against Whittman – a respective Conservative Republican.

    The papers made light of the 88% who voted for him but my question is – who is the 12% and are those the true hard core Tea Pots?

    Ms. Craybill made no bones about her extreme positions by the way.

    I doubt very seriously that she could have backed off of those positions without the media unmasking her if she had tried.

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Don't write off Fimian yet.

    "Keep Your Health Plan Under Overhaul? Probably Not, Gov't Analysis Concludes" http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/537208/201006111932/Keep-Your-Health-Plan-Under-Overhaul-Probably-Not-Govt-Analysis-Concludes.aspx

    Draft study by DoL and HHS leaked.

    TMT

  12. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    The concept of the Republicans, with the help of their Tea Party friends, taking back control of the Congress is comical.

    Remember, these are the same yahoos that for 8 years could have devised their own prophylactic health care plan – to head off anything a future president might try to accomplish and all these yahoos could manage was a Prescription drug giveaway to their Big Pharm friends.

    Nevermind that they too knew from Bush's own advisors what was going to happen to health care costs if nothing was done – what did they do?

    And NOW…. there are those among us that are hopeful than the Rand Paul and affiliated wannabes are going to do "something" come Fall of 2010 when they "retake" Congress?

    ha

    ha ha

    ha ha ha

    bahahahahahhhhhaaaaaa

    hope springs eternal ….. 🙂

    Actually.. I'd be interested in hearing what they'd actually do beyond the repeal part.. you know the "replace" part.

    but anyone expecting this same set of yahoos to do "something" other than vote "no"… really is grasping at straws.. IMHO.

  13. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    You know what is really infuriating about the … for want of a better word – hypocrisy – of the opponents of Obama's Policies is this:

    The Republicans COULD have insisted on PayGo.

    When they owned both houses of Congress AND the Presidency – they COULD have ..DESPITE one minority Congressman named Frank – they COULD have reined in Fannie/Freddie.

    They COULD have delivered a better version of health care.

    and they COULD have delivered a Balanced Budget AND a path to bringing the deficit back to the s surplus they inherited.

    They COULD have done what will be necessary to cut Social Security and Medicare to get them under control to include the likelihood that the retirement age will have to be raised.

    The Republicans COULD HAVE done all of the above and more OR any subset of the above –

    AND – John McCain or even just about any other Republican leader would have wiped the floor with Obama…

    So.. what I'll never understand is why the folks who want Obama and his policies gone – think that the same basic bunch of Republicans – given back control of Congress will accomplish anything at all.

    I mean, you have a clear track record of these guys.

    Count off the establishment Republicans STILL in Congress AFTER 8 years with Bush.

    In a way.. it's pretty sad.

    I understand that folks consider government less than wonderful these days but what I cannot "get" is how anyone thinks that the Tea Party by itself will constitute anything more than a budding 3rd party movement.. or more likely, what I suspect, is nothing more than the hard right wing of the Republicans.

    What is their AGENDA?

    Are they going to repeal Obamacare and if they do.. what will they do instead?

    What would they do about Medicare and Social Security – both of which they Tea Party and Republicans say is a massive "failure"?

    Had the Republicans actually had a plan .. and passed it – only to have it vetoed by Bush – we WOULD have had some kind of a track record to actually believe that a follow-on Republican President could take than agenda forward.

    Obama – as bad as folks think he is – was/is and remains a symbol of the total incompetence of the Republican Party as an effective Conservative governing majority.

    They failed.. and people were sick of them.. and now.. they want them back?

    give me a break folks.

    actually give me a name or two who will lead the Republicans back to what they used to be – and ones that I did manage to vote FOR more than once.

    Obama is clearly NOT the greatest thing since sliced bread but jesusHkeeerist… what is the plan?

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, I think you make reasonable criticisms of the Republican-controlled Congresses on HCR. But I respectfully submit they are politically immaterial.

    The GOP is not in power; the Democrats are. And our President has now served more than 1/3 of his term. Obama is in change and is responsible. He is responsible for HCR. He pushed it. He promised that people could keep what they have. No body twisted his arm. Now that what he promised does not seem to becoming true, he's the guy responsible. And he will pay a big political price, just like Bush did when his Iraq strategy took too long to produce results.

    Causing people to lose what they have will not be accepted. Maybe major reform was just too big to choke down. But Obama chose to put it on his plate. No one else did. It's not the GOP's fault.

    TMT

  15. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT – unless one wants to presume that NOTHING was an acceptable response to rising health care costs – and until I hear " Obama SHOULD HAVE DONE what the Republican's proposed"

    then what exactly are we expecting to happen?

    As far as political promises are concerned… I don't disagree but I'm also not so sure that what Obama "promised" was instead an "intent to make happen" that did not pan out the way he thought it might or could.

    So he messed up.

    again.. what did he not do that the Republicans said should be done?

    Why did they not do this BEFORE Obama became President – taking that issue away from him to start with?

    And now, let's assume that somehow, somewhere, the Republicans take back control.

    What are they going to do NOW?

    I don't think there were (or are) any good options on health care on the path that we were headed (not having some kind of European-type plan).

    If there were/are better non-European approaches to HC – where are they?

    Where WERE THEY ..BEFORE Obama?

    I just don't see a positive agenda here at all.

    It's all blame and not constructive.

    Where are we hearing " Just wait until we get back in – and this is what we are going to do to fix this".

    a whole ton of people are frustrated but I'm not so sure that we are not down the last of the options and none of them are very palatable.

    If that is true – what does blaming Obama accomplish if those who blame him – have not options themselves?

  16. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT – my big question is not why folks don't like Obama…

    I really don't care why they don't like him in some respects except the fact that he has actually acted seems to upset many.

    I'm asking what the alternate action agenda is for those who seek a non-Obama government.

    I'm trying to understand where the anyone-but-Obama folks want to take us.

    It appears to me that what we have is a "let's get rid of Obama and then figure out what to do" movement.

    Like I said earlier – if the Republicans during Bush's term (notice I did not say "under" Bush)…..if they had had an action agenda .. it would not have mattered who ran as a Democrat – because the country would have taken the Republican path as long as there was confidence in their approach.

    I would have voted for Romney simply because the man has demonstrated experience in both business and government and I never understood why the Republicans could not agree on anyone and then just bailed out to end up with McCain.

    Remember.. these are the SAME GUYs who now want to once again get Obama out – but have no clue who .. or more important…what policies to pursue.

    Even now – the Republicans COULD rally behind someone like Romney – put together a fiscally conservative, business-oriented approach to something different than the path Obama seems to be one…

    but where the H E double L is it?

    so.. what we have is " get rid of this guy (Obama) first.. and then we figure out what to do".

    and this is the approach that the anti-Obama folks are on….

    I fear for out country right now.

    I really do.

    I am really afraid that we are drifting with little understanding and agreement on what we need to be trying to accomplish unless than a super simplistic motherhood & apple pie version of our country.

    We do know what we don't like – but beyond that.. we cannot even agree on what to order from the menu so we sit at the table not able to agree.

  17. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, I agree that the GOP did nothing on HCR for the general public and would agree that, if they take control of Congress, they must act or shut up. I further agree that American politics has gone to a blame game. Blame the other guys/gals and try to get back into power. Then switch sides of the field. That's not very productive.

    But I put much of the blame for that on the media. We need one set of rules that apply to Democrats and to Republicans equally. A lot of it started with Robert Bork and the campaign to keep him off the Supreme Court. I'm not taking any position on the merits, but rather simply noting that the campaign against him was unprecedented.

    Yet, there was no outcry from the media. Bork was on the wrong side of issues, therefore, all was fair. Ditto for Clarence Thomas. Does anyone think that, if Thomas had been nominated by Clinton, he would have been so attacked?

    The GOP went after a number of Clinton nominees and even Clinton himself. The Democrats escalated when Bush took office in 2001. And now the shoe is on the other foot.

    We saw the Post's Macaca campaign against George Allen and it's failed attack on Bob McDonnell. Yet, Mark Warner (who I think has been a reasonably good US Senator) signed a no-bid contract for Dulles Rail and we heard nothing. Instead of vetting Obama, we saw the media worship him.

    We need a single set of standards for politics — national and state. Until we do, it's escalate baby, escalate. So long as people of the Fred Hiatt ilk are out there, we will not have a single set of standards. It's now the GOP's turn to attack Obama. Escalate is the name of the game.

    That's very unfortunate.

    TMT

  18. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT – politics is politics to a certain extent.

    Remember the Vince Foster affair?

    who in the media was responsible for that ?

    At any rate.. that's no excuse for and entire political party and it's President not having a fiscally responsible agenda is it?

    Are we saying that partisan politics is a proper excuse for not at least attempting to govern?

    So Obama puts together a legislative agenda and there is not competing alternate – only partisan opposition to the one proposed?

    Are the Republicans saying they don't like the Dems agenda but they won't propose one of their own and their primary goal is to essentially de-elect this administration?

    TMT – what is keeping the Republicans from saying: "Obama is wrong an here is what we should be doing instead" an then detail their plan?

    At some point, I don't care if they are Dems or Republicans, Tea Pots or Zulus as long as they have a defined plan.

    But what we seem to have right now is defined opposition and no real alternate plan.

    that make me uncomfortable.

    why would I want to vote someone in whose primary qualification is opposition to Obama and the main stream media and little else?

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, I don't disagree with your basic assumption – Congress and the Administration should try to govern. Much of governing is not sexy stuff (Peter's taste in women is much better). It's routine, mundane, boring, etc., but it's necessary. Keep the trains running on time. I sense that a lot of people would be happy if the federal, state and local governments did just that.

    This is not to argue that changes are never necessary. For example, the VA Tech shooting tragedy yielded some change in a number of laws. Tim Kaine's push for linking land use to transportation is a big and important change. But, especially at the federal level, I don't think many big programs work. They add employees and contractors, but how many achieve true progress? Measurable results?

    Personally, I would have been much happier had Obama just concentrated on improving the economy, enforcing laws fairly and trying to crack-down on the Wall Street criminals.

    TMT

  20. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT, for better or worse and I'm sure most folks think for the worst, the Obama Administration felt that the longer term structural deficit was not going to be successfully dealt with unless Health Care was reformed.

    Their preferred approach was opposed and never agreed to so they took what they could get which is in some folks minds worse than the original proposal

    but how did we get there?

    First, the Republicans had full ability to do whatever version they felt was right during their time – and that would have included finding some compromises that some fiscally conservative Dems would have gone along with.

    But they did nothing and then they opposed the Obama plan and were not looking for compromises at all despite the Dems and Obama bending over backwards to find some.

    The Republicans decided that they would oppose any forms of it – en masse.

    ..and they continued that mode of operation with financial reform…

    I do not see a principled alternative agenda from the Republicans – zippo.

    It appears to me that their primary strategy is to obstruct as much as they can and hope that they can retake the White House and both houses of Congress in 2012.

    There is no compromise.

    There is no alternative agenda from which we could identify potential common ground between the two and try to find support for the middle.

    NOPE.

    It's an all or nothing.. throw the gauntlet down – all in approach to governance.

    I would submit that this is not governance.

    This sounds a lot like – they will rule if they can and obstruct if they cannot.

    Am I wrong?

  21. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, Obama's plan had nothing to do with controlling health care costs. It's all about expanding coverage to get votes. Just the flip side of the GOP. Obama is a redistributionist. Take from many to give to a few.

    But his problem, IMO, is that those who are being taken from don't perceive any benefit from the taking. What is fair or unfair is debatable. But creating a perception that many will lose will hurt the President bigtime. Most people believe, rightly or wrongly, that they've earned what they get. "I paid my Medicare tax for 30 years. I am entitled to Medicare." Cut Medicare and you have taken something away something. Doesn't work politically, especially when you take away things from many people.

    The President has hurt himself.

    TMT

  22. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT – might want to read this:

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/the-future-of-the-deficit/

    During the campaign, Obama, McCain and Romney – all three said that health care costs had to be controlled or else we'd never control the deficit.

    here's another:

    " The Specter of Financial Armageddon — Health Care and Federal Debt in the United States"

    http://healthcarereform.nejm.org/?p=3170

    you can find dozens of similar articles by googling the terms.

    the idea that Obama did this to get votes is clearly wrong.

    The folks without health care have traditionally voted ANYHOW for the Dems…have they not?

    And why would the Republicans forfeit the issue anyhow?

    McCain and Romney did not forfeit it.

    Both of them agreed that if we do not solve the escalation of health care costs, it will give us an unsustainable deficit… a very conservative concern.

    We see this so very differently.

    My view from the get go was that health care costs were out of control.

    The Clintons were saying this and so did George Bush…

    did they not?

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