A week ago I questioned a fundamental premise of the argument that Virginia needs to raise taxes in order to build more roads: the fact that Virginians aren’t driving more, they’re driving less. Citing DMV figures, I noted that total Vehicle Miles Driven in the Old Dominion declined in 2009 and 2010. (See “Is Congestion Really Getting Worse?“) What I didn’t know then were the numbers for 2011. As the economic recovery (such as it was) took hold, would Virginians head back to the roads?

The Virginia Department of Transportation thought they would, budgeting a 2.7% increase in motor fuels taxes for the first quarter of the fiscal year. But we found out differently when John Lawson, CFO for the Virginia Department of Transportation, updated the Commonwealth Transportation Board on the department’s financials.  Through September, he reported, motor fuels tax collections have declined 3.2% year to date compared to the same period last year. (In Virginia’s fiscal year, “year to date” covers July, August and September.) The decline for September was even worse — down 4.1%. Ouch!

Fuel tax collections are a function of two things: average gas mileage and vehicle miles driven. While improved gas mileage of the Virginia motor vehicle fleet might have contributed marginally to the dip in tax collections, the driving force (so to speak) was Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT).

I asked Lawson if he thought the decline reflected temporary economic conditions or a more profound change in driving patterns. He declined to speculate.  But it’s a question that VDOT officials and state legislators need to start asking. If Virginians are driving less, not more, the justification for many transportation projects gets blown out the exhaust pipe.

— JAB