Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Virginia Students’ AP Metrics Are Slipping

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

Nearly 27% of Virginia’s public high school test takers demonstrated college-level achievement on at least one Advanced Placement exam this year, according to data released today by The College Board.

The good news: Virginia ranks 9th among the states in the percentage earning a score of three or higher in an AP test.

The bad news: The 26.9% percentage represents a one percentage-point decline from 27.9% since last year.

Superintendent for Public Instruction Jillian Balow did not put a happy face on the results, as past superintendents have done. While celebrating the success of 2021 graduates, she said in a press release, “We also must recognize that since 2015 the commonwealth has fallen from third in the nation to ninth as the number of Virginia students taking AP exams has declined and participation in other states has grown.”

“It is time for a serious discussion about what we can do at both the state and local levels to broaden access to AP courses and remove barriers to participation,” she added.

AP exam performance showed the usual disparities between Asian students and students of all other race/ethnicities. Here is the percentage of each group that passed at least one exam:

  • Asian students — 55.9%
  • White students — 29.5%
  • Hispanic students — 21.9%
  • American Indian students — 20%
  • Black students — 8.9%

Bacon’s bottom line:

There are two stark dividing lines in AP performance — between Asian students and everyone else, and between Black students and everyone else. The high percentage of Asian achievers does not create a social-justice issue. The low percentage of Black students does.

Some of the disparity for Blacks may be explainable by the $96 charge for taking an exam, which creates a financial barrier for lower-income students. The achievement gap also may explained by the smaller percentage of Black seniors coming out of public schools who are capable of college-level work.

As The College Board notes, scores of 3 or higher in the 5-point scale may exempt Virginia students from the necessity of taking 243,000 course credits in college. At an average rate of $471 per college credit hour, that represents a potential cost savings of $114 million. Combine a higher incidence of financial hardship with inadequate academic preparation, and Black students are more likely to struggle in college, more likely to drop out, and more likely to enter adulthood staggering under a load of unpaid student debt. That’s not an outcome that anyone would wish for.

— JAB

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33 responses to “Virginia Students’ AP Metrics Are Slipping”

  1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    Since you brought it up… is there a trend in black student AP participation and performance?

  2. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    Covering the AP test fees for students in Virginia would be an excellent way for some philanthropic billionaire to “give back” to society.

  3. kls Avatar
    kls

    Forget AP…….grading my last test — NOT A SINGLE STUDENT understood when to use ‘who’ rather than ‘that’. Also 10% couldn’t comprehend and follow simple directions [they lose 11 points when violating this one].

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      With or without comma? How about who and which? Who and whom?

  4. James McCarthy Avatar
    James McCarthy

    What is the actual number in the 1% decline? The increased participation by other states surely affected the VA ranking. What is the measure of VA’s drop from 3rd to 9th in six years? All can agree that the results for Blacks requires remedial attention. It’s also important to see the % differences in contrast and in actual numbers.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      comparing metrics after 2 yrs of COVID is problematical IMHO. Trying to make a point from those metrics is not likely informative.

  5. Kathleen Smith Avatar
    Kathleen Smith

    Opportunity vs outcome. You have to look at both. Not only opportunity, but outcome as well. 100% means nothing if only 8% of Black students pass while 29 % of white students pass, nothing has changed.

  6. CJBova Avatar
    CJBova

    VDOE Press releases

    2021 26.9% 80,893 = 242,679 credits-=114.2 million savings
    2020 28.6% 98,556 = 295,698 credits =$136.6 million
    2019 28.8% 103,871 qualified, 310,346 credits,savings $140,8 million
    2018 28.5% 313,000 credits savings “more than 140 million”

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Those credits keep going up.

      1. CJBova Avatar
        CJBova

        Up? From 313,000 in ’18 to 242,000 in ’21. Savings from 140 mil to 114 mil.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          In cost, i.e., tuition and football team fees

  7. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    The kids’ll be alright. Place your mask on first before helping others with theirs.
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/03/28/retirement-the-margaritaville-way

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      Wow, I never wanted to waste away in Margaritasville. The idea of doing it by choice in a planned community is worse than having it creep up over decades in a haze in Key West. Makes my skin crawl. But, thanks for the peek at a different reality. Salt, Salt, Salt.

  8. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    A brilliant stone has 56 facets. You are focused on only one. Here is another view. The rise of the Hawleys, Greenes, Cawthorns, et al., indicates the loss of smart people means an increase in Republicans. You don’t have to be the Best of the Best to rise to the highest seats of power, just become a Republican. You’re winning.

    Fewer smart kids today means fewer Democrats tomorrow. Not just correlated, it’s causal.

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      Dunno, I was attracted to the Dems for a long time because I believed they believed in governance. Here lately that doesn’t seem to be the case so much. Doesn’t mean I think the Repubs are any less unfit, but the Dems no longer stick out positively.

      Fewer smart kids may be due to woke racist Dem anti populist “equity”. Causality, not just coincidence indeed. Profoundly ironic if that meant fewer future Dems.

  9. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    What PISA ( the international standard) and NAEP (the American standard) measure is :

    1. – the ability to use language , the mechanics, like phonics and basic mathematical concepts.

    2. – the ability to read AND think critically about real world problems AND to be able to articulate them yourself.

    In NAEP parlance, BASIC is fundamentals. Proficient is the beginning ability to think critically and articulate and ADVANCED is to be able to put the two together competently to use them in understanding and solving real-world problems.

    The US pretty much sucks at ADVANCED compared to much of the rest of the developed world – we score in 15-20th in language, science and math primarily because we do not successfully teach critical thinking even when we succeed at teaching the basic mechanics but primarily to kids who have educated parents who are economically stable.

    That’s for the majority of our kids – public AND private schools – it’s more than just a public school problem.

    And that aspect is different from our failures for economically disadvantaged kids – regardless of color, it’s the same problem. Their parents are poorly educated and as a result, not secure economically, not able to afford a house in a neighborhood with good schools, not in secure career jobs, often split and chaotic family situation with more frequent job and home changes.

    A one-parent family with the one parent in a stable career making 60K a year verses a one-parent family with the parent making minimum wage and not in a stable career.

    Other countries also don’t do well at educating economically disadvantaged kids, the difference is most countries have fewer of them in number – they don’t have large numbers of economically disadvantaged kids living essentially in segregated neighborhoods like we do.

    We know from numerous posts in BR how bad the situation is in places like Richmond. But what we almost never hear in BR is how neighboring Henrico also has significant numbers of schools with issues similar to Richmond schools.

    Because we’re not often presented with this more complete picture, we end up being misinformed about the issue – which really, BOTH Richmond AND Henrico have and neither have been successful at “fixing” it.

    And again, that’s different than the first problem which is that even in the good schools in Henrico – those kids score poorly against other developed countries kids – primarily because we do not really teach critical thinking – even to kids that have well-learned the mechanics and are competent at the basic language and math concepts.

    The POINT?

    We continue to portray the issue wrongly and continue to focus on things that are more “cultural” rather really relevant.

    It’s a sound-bite perspective of problems that we’re never going to solve if we continue to delude ourselves as to what the real problems are – which is NOT that Asians are “better” and other people of color are not and other inane things that have far less to do with the issues than other things that we choose to ignore.

    1. CJBova Avatar
      CJBova

      No one said any children are “better” by reason of race, Larry. That’s your own twisted view of what was said. If children can’t read in 3rd and 8th grade, they’re not going to take AP tests in high school. If the absentee rate is higher for some children than others, they’re going to have less chance of mastering even the basics. And ignoring the academically gifted to work with children not up to grade level because they’ll manage on their own has a price too.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Did I say children are “better’ by reason of race?
        where? Where do you get “twisted’ from?

        And what is the rest of your comment really about anyhow?

        How about it?

        Can you address why, in a county like Henrico , they have very high performing kids and low performing kids like Richmond?

        How does that happen?

  10. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Take anything with AP next to it with a pint of salt. The 2021 AP US History topics for essays were: 1. Evolution of Women 1900 to 1970. 2. Racial/political developments of Reconstruction. 3. Historical Continuity of American Indians. 4. The document based question essay on economic changes post 1940 5 of 7 documents were from the perspective of women and minorities. Role of white men. Not needed. Such a slanted exam has little or no value to me. Who cares what the AP exam scores reveal? The college board is business. To turn a buck now it must dance to the new fangled sounds on your hi fi.
    https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/pdf/ap21-frq-us-history.pdf

  11. Matt Hurt Avatar
    Matt Hurt

    What is Virginia’s participation rate of students enrolled in AP courses in AP testing relative to other states? Some places may be more selective in who they encourage to take the tests (i.e. those kids who are more likely to knock it out of the park) and less likely to encourage other kids. Also, what is the rate of students enrolled in AP courses in general compared to kids in other states? All of this matters and likely has an outcome on the scores. I’ve requested this data from the College Board, and if they respond I’ll update this post.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Those are excellent questions. I tried to find that information on the College Board website but could not. The number of students scoring a 3 or more is likely to be highly correlated with the number of students taking AP tests. If fewer kids are taking APs, fewer students will be scoring 3 or more, all other things being equal.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        If the data were collected and sliced and diced without regard to race or ethnicity, but instead, with regard to household income and education attainment of the parents , what would it show?

        Would households with low income and/or low education attainment rates show lower rates of AP participation and outcomes?

  12. Matt Hurt Avatar
    Matt Hurt

    As to the disparity in outcomes by subgroup, this problem starts early. We’ve got major outcomes issues in the elementary and middle grades that ensure we have disparities in AP test results, admission into highly selective high schools, and success in post secondary education.

    This data is from 2019. Please don’t pay attention to the pass rates, but rather the differences in pass race among the groups displayed. The reading test in 2019 was from the old standards with a higher cut score for passing, and the math was the new test with a much lower cut score. Why is it that the closest performing subgroups are the white economically disadvantaged students and the black non-economically disadvantaged students?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41dec10ab1b3a518d9aaf3c3b07350f83f2bc20b8e84dfaee209d12723a1e6d7.jpg

    We can argue politics all day, but I have yet to see anyone from either party propose any real means by which to effectively address this problem. It seems to me that the Republicans simply expect these kids to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and the Democrats simply lower the expectations to make things look better on paper.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: ” Why is it that the closest performing subgroups are the white economically disadvantaged students and the black non-economically disadvantaged students?”

      would this also (or not) be influenced by participation rates?

      Any thoughts as to what would show if we could slice and dice by higher income and/or parents who are college grads?

      1. Matt Hurt Avatar
        Matt Hurt

        No sir, this is SOL data prior to the pandemic, so pretty high participation across the board.

        It’s hard to say exactly how this would look if broken down further. VDOE doesn’t disaggregate the data by parental income levels or educational attainment- they don’t even collect that data.

        However, I don’t suspect there would be much difference. The statistic displayed is pass rate, and that’s a relatively low expectation for performance.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Matt – you do not think that the educational attainment level and income of the parent has any effect on the child’s academic performance?

          https://militaryfamilies.psu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Parents-Educational-Levels-Influence-on-Child-Educational-Outcomes.20Jan06.final_.pdf

          https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/entities/publication/a8da84ec-4eb0-4baa-8566-fa7c169642a5

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2853053/

          1. Matt Hurt Avatar
            Matt Hurt

            Since the bar is so low to earn a proficient score on the SOL test, I doubt that an analysis of the educational attainment of the parents of non-economically would yield much differences in pass rates. I imagine there would be a bigger difference in the rates of pass advanced scores though.

  13. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Another metric for AP scores to consider is the Jay Mathews Challenge Index. The ranking is derived from the number of Advanced Placement, International Baccalaureate or Cambridge tests given at a school each year, divided by the number of seniors who graduated that year.
    https://jaymathewschallengeindex.com/2020-top-300-schools-index/
    Here are Virginia’s schools in the top 1%. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad754b2fe8f0aaff502c01af51e418c3681b56685e2180571227bf210830b0a0.jpg

  14. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I wonder if the AP scores are relevant to any other type metric other than itself.

    If we could get PISA or NAEP scores with granularity down to the school district level in Va, what would it show? How about Common Core?

    Or to put it another way perhaps. If we could “map” SOL scores to NAEP for each school district, in Va , what would it show with regard to basic, proficient and advanced?

    What we have at this point is not rock-solid evidence of much of anything IMHO, especially pandemic era.

  15. SCB in SW Avatar
    SCB in SW

    I am the parent of 3 sons, high school classes of 2016, 2019, and 2022. They are the type of students one usually finds taking AP classes, what most would call “high-achieving” (but they all let me know if we lived in NoVa they would not have been interested in going to TJ). None of our sons have ever taken an AP exam, however, because they accumulated many hours of college credit in high school by taking Dual Enrollment (DE) classes at their high school.

    I find it interesting I have never heard DE classes mentioned in the same conversation as AP classes. DE classes follow the community college syllabus and are taught by high school teachers with at least a masters degree. In our county at least, there is no cost to students for taking these courses. For our family, the choice was clear: DE classes offered guaranteed college credit while credit from AP exams was dependent upon a good score on the exam. I know community college credits do not transfer to every college, but they do transfer to most. Son #1 accumulated 30+ credits, allowing him to graduate from VT in 3 years. “No scholarship like not having to pay tuition,” one of his professors said. Son #2, 40+ hours of college credit (the course offerings at the high school expanded during those 3 years) chose a major that has an 8-semester sequence, so he is unable to use his credits to shorten his time. also at VT (the boys chose things only studied at VT if you live in Virginia); he has been able to take lighter loads each semester, avoided the massive freshman intro classes, and only had to take one class in the disastrous Math Emporium. Son #3, graduating next month also with 40+ hours, is taking still a different path. He’s using his DE credits first at the local community college to finish getting a trade certification and an associates in the same time it would usually take to do one of those (and then transfer to 4-year school). Our county also now has a program that will pay for up to 2 years at community college in exchange for community service.

    I understand AP classes have a certain prestige about them that DE classes do not. If the goal, however, is to cut college costs, DE classes, at least in our experience, have the clear advantage.

    Our sons’ high school also does teach AP classes. The boys took a couple of those. They never took the AP exams for a couple reasons. Our research showed that if they earned a score good enough for credit, that credit would be of no help to them in college given their intended majors. Also, having taken AP exams myself, I realized they had not been adequately prepared in their classes for success on the AP exam.

    Anecdote is not data, but I share my story anyway. For several years I shared soccer carpool with a mom who was head of an academic department at one of the 2 local universities. She helped grade AP exams one summer. Upon her return she told her colleagues they needed to change their department’s policy to only accept credit for students scoring at least a 4 after she saw what caliber of work was being given a 3.

  16. SCB in SW Avatar
    SCB in SW

    (I tried to post this several days ago, but I keep getting marked as spam.)

    I am the parent of 3 sons, high school classes of 2016, 2019, and 2022. They are the type of students one usually finds taking AP classes, what most would call “high-achieving” (but they all let me know if we lived in NoVa they would not have been interested in going to TJ). None of our sons has ever taken an AP exam, however, because they accumulated many hours of college credit in high school by taking Dual Enrollment (DE) classes at their high school.

    I find it interesting I have never heard DE classes mentioned in the same conversation as AP classes. DE classes follow the community college syllabus and are taught by high school teachers with at least a masters degree. In our county at least, there is no cost to students for taking these courses. For our family, the choice was clear: DE classes offered guaranteed college credit while credit from AP exams was dependent upon a good score on the exam. I know community college credits do not transfer to every college, but they do transfer to most. Son #1 accumulated 30+ credits, allowing him to graduate from VT in 3 years. “No scholarship like not having to pay tuition,” one of his professors said. Son #2, 40+ hours of college credit (the course offerings at the high school expanded during those 3 years) chose a major that has an 8-semester sequence, so he is unable to use his credits to shorten his time. also at VT (the boys chose things only studied at VT if you live in Virginia); he has been able to take lighter loads each semester, avoided the massive freshman intro classes, and only had to take one class in the disastrous Math Emporium. Son #3, graduating next month also with 40+ hours, is taking still a different path. He’s using his DE credits first at the local community college to finish getting a trade certification and an associates in the same time it would usually take to do one of those (and then transfer to 4-year school). Our county also now has a program that will pay for up to 2 years at community college in exchange for community service.

    I understand AP classes have a certain prestige about them that DE classes do not. If the goal, however, is to cut college costs, DE classes, at least in our experience, have the clear advantage.

    Our sons’ high school also does teach AP classes. The boys took a couple of those. They never took the AP exams for a couple reasons. Our research showed that if they earned a score good enough for credit, that credit would be of no help to them in college given their intended majors. Also, having taken AP exams myself, I realized they had not been adequately prepared in their classes for success on the AP exam.

    Anecdote is not data, but I share my story anyway. For several years I shared soccer carpool with a mom who was head of an academic department at one of the 2 local universities. She helped grade AP exams one summer. Upon her return she told her colleagues they needed to change their department’s policy to only accept credit for students scoring at least a 4 after she saw what caliber of work was being given a 3.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Thanks for being persistent. I’m glad to see that you managed to get your comment posted.

  17. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Posted on behalf of Sharon Brockman:

    I am the parent of 3 sons, high school classes of 2016, 2019, and 2022. They are the type of students one usually finds taking AP classes, what most would call “high-achieving” (but they all let me know if we lived in NoVa they would not have been interested in going to TJ). None of our sons have ever taken an AP exam, however, because they accumulated many hours of college credit in high school by taking Dual Enrollment (DE) classes at their high school.

    I find it interesting I have never heard DE classes mentioned in the same conversation as AP classes. DE classes follow the community college syllabus and are taught by high school teachers with at least a masters degree. In our county at least, there is no cost to students for taking these courses. For our family, the choice was clear: DE classes offered guaranteed college credit while credit from AP exams was dependent upon a good score on the exam.

    I know community college credits do not transfer to every college, but they do transfer to most. Son #1 accumulated 30+ credits, allowing him to graduate from VT in 3 years. “No scholarship like not having to pay tuition,” one of his professors said. Son #2, 40+ hours of college credit (the course offerings at the high school expanded during those 3 years) chose a major that has an 8-semester sequence, so he is unable to use his credits to shorten his time. also at VT (the boys chose things only studied at VT if you live in Virginia); he has been able to take lighter loads each semester, avoided the massive freshman intro classes, and only had to take one class in the disastrous Math Emporium. Son #3, graduating next month also with 40+ hours, is taking still a different path. He’s using his DE credits first at the local community college to finish getting a trade certification and an associates in the same time it would usually take to do one of those (and then transfer to 4-year school). Our county also now has a program that will pay for up to 2 years at community college in exchange for community service.

    I understand AP classes have a certain prestige about them that DE classes do not. If the goal, however, is to cut college costs, DE classes, at least in our experience, have the clear advantage.

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