The Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia has published new projections for Virginia’s population in 2020. The population will continue to increase, though at a slower rate in the past, reaching an estimated 8.66 million next year. Most striking is a graphic (seen above) showing the relative distribution of the population between Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, metro Richmond, Virginia’s smaller metros, and the non-metropolitan areas.
(comments below)
(comments below)
So all or part of the Roanoke Valley in the Ninth District, Winchester in the Sixth, the 7th and 10th shrink in on themselves….not enough population growth to add a congressional seat. State House districts almost 90,000 population and state Senate districts over 215,000. Drawing all those lines, that’s what’s really at stake in November. The U.S. Supreme Court just said partisan gerrymandering is A-OK. A divided government is the only way to keep that in check – not that I’m messaging for any team these days…..
Not to worry, Steve. This Demographics Research Group report from UVA rivals the Swedes’ happiness awards that the Swedes and their allies at the UN awarded to themselves, vacuous B/S.
The Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia in its new projections for Virginia’s population in 2020, seemed to write off the the rest of the state of Virginia beyond Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond. At the time, I called UVA’s demographic research as to Virginia’s future to be vacuous B/S.
To find out why, please read this recent Wall Street Journal Article:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-boise-and-grand-rapids-the-housing-market-looks-red-hot-11565521202
Same trends at work in WSJ report apply to Virginia. Many places in Virginia outside Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Virginia, will thrive like never before over the coming decades, all contrary to the report and predictions of the The Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia.
One of the things to do when traveling from Virginia to Idaho is to consider the political aspects/perspective of each state as one travels through it. So.. West Va, Kentucky, southern Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming and Idaho.
That’s a LOT of “conservative” compared to Virginia!
They also have urban areas – St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver/Colorado Springs, etc.
And so many of these states have quite a few Congressional and Senate reps – much more “red” than Virginia even though Virginia has significant “Red” geography -the referenced report shows that while Virginia is “red” 80-90% geographically, electorate-wise – the urban areas have significant population.
So the urban areas in Virginia typically have more highly educated/skilled folks and many jobs – both highly paid and service jobs AND they typically vote Blue.
Now if you listen to Conservatives, people who vote Blue are clueless scum of the earth because they want govt to do so much and typically are not near as reactive to taxes as Conservatives.
So, here’s the question – what should Conservatives in Virginia do to appeal to urban dwellers in places like NoVa? What interests of the urban population would Conservatives seek to represent and do a better job than the current uber liberal elected reps?
Or is Virginia DOOMED to continue more and more to blue such that even gerrymandering won’t stop it?
When we talk about the bifurcation of Virginia into a higher-tax half and a lower tax-half, from the chart it looks like that is mainly the NoVa/Hampton Roads half as the higher 50%…because we normally say it is an approx. 50/50 bifurcation by population. The implication is the that the lower tax half includes more than just rural Virginia.
As far as definition of those tax boundaries, I suppose total sales tax is a start.
“Is Virginia DOOMED to continue more and more to blue such that even gerrymandering won’t stop it?”
No, gerrymandering won’t stop it. It may delay the “blueing” by a bit but not stop it.
But, more pernicious, is what it WILL do: contribute to the already insufferable polarization of things by allowing the party in charge to create “safe” Senate and Delegate districts for its most rabid party faithfuls. And concentrate the vote of the opposing party in as few as possible “safe” districts where they will undoubtedly elect their most rabid party faithfuls. They will posture and shout at each other through the entire GA session and accomplish little or nothing.
Swing districts, close to evenly balanced, where the elected officials might win from either party and need to speak to the independent center to persuade a majority, are anathema to the gerrymander crowd.
What’s striking to me about the graph, above, is the absence of overwhelming control by the “rural” category.
In the not-so-distant past, the divides in the General Assembly were not so much partisan, but urban vs. rural or regional, i.e. Northern Virginia versus the rest of the state. Because the rural areas tended to keep re-electing their delegates and senators, while there was more turnover in the urban areas, the rural areas had outsized influence due to the control of committees via seniority.
All that has changed significantly in recent years. The rural vs. urban split has morphed into a partisan split, as well, with Republicans coming primarily from rural areas. Due to Republican dominance in this century, the rural areas still have influence with their representatives chairing some key committees: House–Appropriations; Commerce and Labor; Finance; General Laws; Militia, Police & Public Safety (where gun control laws go to die); and Privileges and Elections. Senate: Education and Health, Finance, General Laws and Techhology; Privileges and Elections, and Transportation.
When the Democrats gain the majority, the rural areas will be on the outside looking in. Most rural areas have lost population since the last census, according to population estimates by UVa.’s Weldon Cooper. I worry about the ability of those localities to provide education and other services for their residents.
Don’t worry rural Virginia – the dumbass Democrats we elect in Northern Virginia are only too happy to keep shoveling our money to anywhere other than Northern Virginia.
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