by James A. Bacon
Virginia has risen to the No. 2 spot in the CNBC Top States for Business ranking, up from #3 the previous year. The cable business channel gave the Old Dominion high scores for access to capital, business friendliness, workforce, and — No. 1 in the category — education.
What a farce.
First, let’s talk about the correlation between CNBC’s rankings and real-world economic performance. CNBC ranked Virginia No. 3 last year. Its economic performance measured by GDP growth, according to Wikipedia? Thirteenth worst! Tied with West Virginia.
Adjusted for inflation, Virginia GDP growth was 4.0% last year. The national average was 5.7%. So much for CNBC’s predictive value. Last year was not an aberration. Growth has been sluggish for years.
Second, let’s look at the No. 1 score for education.
Here’s how CNBC calculates that indicator, which is given a 5% weighting in the total score:
We look at multiple measures of K-12 education including test scores, class size and spending. We consider the number of colleges and universities in each state as well as long-term trends in state support for higher education. We also consider historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), which companies are increasingly seeking to partner with. With the search for talent expanding to include employees with marketable, industry-recognized skills, we measure each state’s community college and career education systems.
Considering HBCUs undoubtedly gives Virginia a boost. We have four: Norfolk State University, Virginia State University, Hampton University, and Virginia Union University. But, as we have documented on this blog — and as has been amplified by the Youngkin administration — Virginia’s K-12 public schools, once among the best in the country, are in crisis. Virginia’s standings in the national NAEP test scores are in free fall.
It’s apparent that Team Youngkin doesn’t put much stock in the CNBC ranking. As quoted by Virginia Business, administration spokesperson Macaulay Porter was not exactly spiking the football:
“Today’s CNBC rankings show that while Virginia has made gains under Governor Youngkin’s leadership, Senate Democrats need to come together to lower the cost of doing business and the cost of living,” she said. “Virginia needs to move forward as a leader in business and become more competitive and fund critical priorities. The governor’s budget amendments addressed these issues head on with common-sense tax relief for Virginia families and local businesses. Virginians need a budget that moves the commonwealth forward and addresses these obstacles to growth so that Virginia can thrive.”
And then there’s the education thing. It’s nice to have the reputation as having the best education system in the country, but Team Youngkin is the first to admit that K-12 desperately needs reform. In the National Assessment of Educational Progress, Virginia’s students, once among the nation’s highest scoring, now are middling at best.
Bacon’s bottom line: The CNBC ranking is worthless. Virginia should take no joy from its No. 2 ranking. It means nothing. Virginia’s economy is in decline, and we’ll never reverse it until we acknowledge reality.
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