Virginia Beach: Notoriously Hard to Poll

by Kerry Dougherty

Polling is an inexact “science.” In fact, it shouldn’t be called a science at all. I say this as someone who graduated with a BA in political science and who always found the “s” word amusing when applied to my area of undergraduate studies.

We’ve seen polls that once the votes were tallied proved to be surprisingly accurate. And many more polls that were wildly wrong.

Here’s an example: in October of 2016 a poll conducted by the polling organization at Christopher Newport University purported to show an “even split” between supporters and opponents of extending light rail into Virginia Beach.

That proposed rail project was a boondoggle, pushed almost entirely by developers and their political cronies. It would have cost taxpayers an estimated $100 million a mile and studies showed the extended line would not alleviate traffic congestion in Hampton Roads. At all.

The poll was commissioned by 13 News, The Virginian-Pilot and Christopher Newport University. Results showed that 48% of likely voters supported light rail and 48% opposed.

Luckily, Election Day told a different story. The referendum to extend the rail project into Virginia Beach lost in a landslide: 57.09% to 42.91.

Why bring up old news now? Because another poll by the same organization made headlines again last week showing the Congressional race for the 2nd District seat tied! The CNU poll reported 45% support for incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria and 45% support for Republican Jen Kiggans.

Another even split.

With predictions earlier this year about a “red wave” headed for Washington, this poll no doubt gave Luria supporters encouragement. They may believe that Luria can buck the national trend in House races and be re-elected.

And no doubt Kiggans supporters were discouraged by the news. After all, they nominated a candidate with an impressive resume: Kiggans is a Navy helicopter pilot, a geriatrics nurse practitioner and she already holds elected office as a member of the Virginia State Senate.

Beyond that, the 2nd district was redrawn, making it more Republican than the last congressional election, with the bulk of voters residing in Virginia Beach.

They can’t be blamed for believing Kiggans should be well ahead.

I would urge voters in the 2nd district to study the history of polling in Hampton Roads — especially in Virginia Beach — and compare the results of this one with actual results on November 9th.

A science experiment, if you will.

After all, Election Day polls are the only ones that count.

This column has been republished with permission from Kerry: Unemployed & Unedited.


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5 responses to “Virginia Beach: Notoriously Hard to Poll”

  1. James McCarthy Avatar
    James McCarthy

    Poor Kerry!! Science is merely the systematic study of phenomena. It is not the equivalent of arithmetic in results.

  2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    That poll also found 10 percent undecided. It depends on how those undecided voters ultimately land. The poll could be shown to be surprisingly accurate with a close vote or the final vote could have one candidate comfortably in the lead. That will not mean the poll was wrong. After all, it did identify 10 percent still on the fence.

    Kerry is doing her usual selective reporting. She puts forth Kiggans’ “impressive resume”, including service as a Navy helicopter pilot. If one were being objective, one would point out that Kiggans’ opponent, Elaine Luria, is also a Navy veteran. In fact, Luria spent 20 years in the Navy, compared to Kiggans’ 10 years, and retired with the rank of commander, right below captain. She is one of the few female Naval officers to spend her entire career on combat ships. And like Kiggans, she already holds elective office–the U.S. House of Representatives.

  3. After all, Election Day polls are the only ones that count.

    Right. So why would you argue against the CNU poll and possibly encourage an otherwise apathetic democrat voter to get off his/her/their/its butt and go vote.

    1. James McCarthy Avatar
      James McCarthy

      Because Kerry is Right while in her opinion polls are not science.

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