Bacon's Rebellion

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Virginia Approaching Herd Immunity

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Number of confirmed and “probable” cases of COVID-19. The yellow line shows the seven-day moving average. Source: Virginia Department of Education

by James A. Bacon

You wouldn’t know it from media hyperventilating over the Delta variant of COVID-19, but Virginia health authorities are reporting only 200 or so confirmed cases of the virus daily — the lowest level since mid-March when the epidemic was first taking hold in the state.

The seven-day moving average for hospitalizations is down to about 10 per day, and the average for deaths, a lagging indicator, is below ten.

I’m reporting these numbers to provide context for the preceding column in which Kerry Dougherty decried President Joe Biden’s announcement that the government will send people door-to-door to encourage people to take the COVID-19 vaccine. (Although Virginia’s COVID-19 state of emergency expired June 30, most of the state’s public universities are mandating vaccinations for students returning to campus this fall.)

Here’s why the numbers have fallen so low. First, after a stumbling start, Virginia has done a reasonably good job of administering the vaccine. The Virginia Department of Health reports that 8.7 million vaccines have been given. Between the 300,000 Johnson & Johnson vaccines which require only one dose and the 8.4 million Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which require two, that implies that roughly 4.5 million of Virginia’s 8.5 million citizens have received the vaccine.

Additionally, VDH reports 682,000 confirmed and “probable” cases of COVID-19 cases. This figure is undoubtedly low because many people who caught the virus displayed no symptoms and were never tested for it. The level of immunity for COVID survivors equals or exceeds that of vaccinated individuals.

Finally, the vast majority of the remaining unvaccinated population consists of young people — accounting for about 28% of Virginia’s population — most of whom  are highly resistant to the vaccine. The 18-and-under population accounts for nearly 2.8 million people.

In sum, roughly 7.5 million people have either (1) been vaccinated, (2) recovered from the virus, and/or (3) belong to the highly resistant 18-and-under population. (There may be some overlap in those numbers, but they give us a rough picture.) That’s not herd immunity, but it’s approaching herd immunity. The virus is circulating among the roughly 1 million Virginians who fall into none of those categories. COVID-19 will continue spreading in that population, but no matter how virulent the latest mutations, the numbers will remain subdued.

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45 responses to “Virginia Approaching Herd Immunity”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    For all the vitriol directed towards Northam over his handling of COVID – we can’t seem to give him much if any credit, can we?

    And Kerry just slides to ragging on Biden who really is only trying to encourage hesitant folks to get vaccinated and other states get to the good outcome Virginia has attained.

    I swear it’s like trying to herd full grown adults acting like little brats to simply do what we’ve pretty much always done with regard to communicable disease and vaccines and the “but it’s not yet approved” rings pretty hollow when you look at an efficacy rate that is very much getting us close to herd immunity with very few harmed by the vaccine – probably a similar rate to other prior vaccines.

    I don’t know what has happened to us a society. It makes no sense. Some seem to have just rejected everything we have learned about communicable diseases and vaccines… be it polio, measles, HIV, Aids, etc… , indeed, they reject science itself now.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Well, it’d be okay if Kerry hadn’t been vaccinated, or at least vowed to reject any boosters, but we all know she’ll push an old lady down a staircase to move up in line should this stuff turn really south.

      SARS-1 lasted 5 years. I’m guessing we’ve a minimum of 3 boosters coming.

      Crazy finds a way.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I fully expect some people to now question vaccine shots for kids for mumps, chickenpox, polio, etc.

        The current claim that covid is not approved is pure 100% dog breath because it’s clearly obvious , it’s been given to millions , perhaps billions of people with minimal adverse reactions, not much different than “approved” vaccines. The entire purpose of the approval process is actually wider and wider trials until we’re sure how it affects large numbers, but this has already been done.

        Ironically, the FDA approves an Alzheimers drug with far less data that COVID.

        https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/fdas-decision-approve-new-treatment-alzheimers-disease

        see “accelerated approval”.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          It’s how it begins.

      2. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        SARS didn’t last for 5 years, it first appeared in China 2002/2003. There has been no known transmission of the virus since 2004.

        https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

        Ignorance abounds when you opine.

        (Not shocked though, you’ve previously established you’re not good at math.)

        Edit: Just an FYI because facts the knowledge seem to be something you’ll never attain. SARS-CoV still exists, there is no known cure only therapeutics (remdesivir) which was used against CoV-2.

    2. Publius Avatar
      Publius

      I feel like re-enacting the SNL parody of point counterpoint – Jane, you ignorant slut!
      Larry – some people have a knowledge of history and medicine greater than what serves the immediate Democratic party interests.
      You don’t know squat about communicable diseases – you just repeat what MSNBC tells you.
      You know what we don’t have a cure for? AIDS, flu, Covid, a zillion other things.
      You know what happens every year? Seasonal flu.
      You know what happens about the end of May every year? Seasonal flu cases drop near zero.
      So, while Operation Warp Speed is a huge improvement in speeding up the process, the drop in “cases” is not necessarily connected to vaccinations. Correlation does not equal causation. Remember that?
      So, SlowJoe and Trump, and Gov Blackface Coonman King Ralph all could have done nothing and “cases” would be near zero.

      In fact, based on history, and economics, and SCIENCE!, I predict the Covid lockdowns and response will be seen as the greatest public policy failure of democratic societies ever (because the Marxists were pushing the fear to control). Somehow, Larry, prior to the invention of vaccines, the human race survived. It’s almost like somebody designed the human body to develop immune responses… Now if we could develop a vaccine for people susceptible to Marxism and the desire to control others…

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        well, since we’re on the subject of ignorance…

        how many years have we vaccinated children – and adults against communicable diseases?

        was that ignorant?

        We should have left polio alone ?

        Same with measles and mumps?

        ignoraiti on parade..

        1. Publius Avatar
          Publius

          Larry – that’s not what I said. You know what? I have been vaccinated with all the childhood vaccines, as have all my kids. I have generally never had a flu vaccine. I’m one of those weirdos who doesn’t seem to get flu. But what I have discovered is I do get flu, it just doesn’t affect me. Flu is one of those diseases my body handles with relative ease. So why would I get a shot? People have good reasons to make their own decisions. Each person is different and has a different risk profile. If I was 20 years older, if I had a co-morbidity, I might get the Covid shot. But, given that it is experimental, and given that I am not really “at risk,” I’d rather wait. Why is liberty so offensive to you and your fellow Leftists? Is it possible I know my medical risk better than you?

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Did you consider the risk when you got those other prior vaccinations for you and the kids?

            Did you decide for those prior vaccines, you would only get them if you had comorbidities? If not, why did you get them?

            re: liberty – do you consider “liberty” when your kids get vaccinations?

          2. Publius Avatar
            Publius

            You mean for those vaccines which have been around forever and are not experimental and have demonstrated efficacy? No. Quit being an idiot.
            By the way Larry, it is written in the law a way to refuse those vaccines. Scary! People who don’t do what Larry wants!

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yep. they STILL have risk, no? Don’t the anti-vaxxers claim they are NOT safe?

            Do you think those early childhood vaccines should be mandated if they are determined by the govt to be safe even if you others don’t think so?

            How does that work with “liberty” ?

            Do you want to be served food by someone who says it’s his “right” of liberty to not be vaccinated against communicable diseases?

          4. Publius Avatar
            Publius

            you make no sense. Do you have a point?

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Lets back up:

            “Why is liberty so offensive to you and your fellow Leftists? Is it possible I know my medical risk better than you?”

            So I’m asking , do you think “Liberty” is at issue with childhood vaccinations also?

            Do you support those who say they should not have to vaccinate their kids because of their “liberty”?

            Would you support a cook who may have a contagious disease preparing your food?

            Or teachers who cite their right and liberty to refuse to get vaccinated, teaching kids?

            I’m just trying to understand where you draw that line. Is it different for each of us no matter what? And so, it means,we have people interacting with us who may well not be vaccinated against contagious diseases in general?

            is that any more clear?

          6. Publius Avatar
            Publius

            Yes. Liberty is at issue with childhood vaccines. And most people CHOOSE to get vaccinated, without your mandate Larry. Thanks for bringing up another logical fallacy.

            I bet cooks have cooked food while sick. If I owned the restaurant, he’d go home. If I was the cook, I’d say it depends on how sick and with what. Headache? Man up. Coughing? No.

            Yes, I want teachers teaching kids. They are probably all NEA members and the little cretins can make them sick and die, and the position can be filled with an America-loving, vax denying, America First teacher. Part of my secret evil plan…oops!

    3. dick dyas Avatar
      dick dyas

      Ha, can you imagine refusing to get your polio shot in 1954? They would have put you in reform school.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I don’t know the history very well but I DID read that early on some vaccines actually did kill and injure kids.

        Seems like the issue is – if you don’t want to be vaccinated, do places have the right to deny you access over safety concerns for others?

        How about a restaurant? Do you want the cooks to not be vaccinated against communicable diseases?

        Would you let your kid go play with other kids that are unvaccinated?

    4. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Follow along. P…O…L…I…T…I…C….S. You and your friends spent months and months trying to blame Trump for causing COVID, or spreading it, or failing to respond properly….trying to win the election. It worked. Admittedly, he helped it work. Also the constant claims that a virus, a virus(!), was a racist.

      But actions have reactions and too many of his voters are now dug in deeply. And in the low income communities, distrust of the medical profession was exacerbated. “A plague on both your houses” has indeed resulted….

      This one’s on your team, Larry.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        So, you’re rejecting any notion of a booster?

        1. Stephen Haner Avatar
          Stephen Haner

          Some folks need a booster for brain cells sometimes. Me, they can jab me all they want with COVID vaccine. I may follow the suggestion and go with another flavor vaccine before next winter.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            https://www.rd.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/01_Common-Myths-About-Airplanes-You-Need-to-Stop-Believing_559714906_motive56.jpg?resize=640,426

            The new mosquito.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            would that be a bona-fide scientific “suggestion” or one from “smart people”?

            Make it simple – if it comes from the FDA/CDC or Dr. Fauci and FAUX says it’s a liberal plot… yes or no?

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I blamed Trump for being an effing idiot not causing COVID. He surely did not cause but he definitely DID screw up the implementation, no question about it and if he had been re-elected, more disaster from him and his merry band of idiots.

        Also , I did not make claims about the virus , vaccine and racism. where do you get that?

        The “dug in” are not dug in because Trump was treated badly or voted out, they are basically ignorant if you want to know the truth – and you do because despite the politics – to and fro – YOU KNOW the importance of getting the shot – even if you seem to doubt science.

        These guys are in your tent Steve, you know it but you try to lamely defend their ignorance by saying they feel bad about Trump and that’s the never-Trumpers fault.

        Pretty dumb logic… but yes.. it’s making the rounds… in your tent.

        Really ironic, despite your distrust of science, you apparently had zero doubts about the vaccine, UNLIKE a lot of your political brethren!

        You even point it out ! Oh and ditto with “wear the damn mask” !!!!

        1. Packer Fan Avatar
          Packer Fan

          Daily Double! Larry said “doubt science” and “distrust of science” in the same post!

    5. Packer Fan Avatar
      Packer Fan

      Hey everybody! The game is take a shot (of your favorite beverage) every time one of Larry’s posts uses the word “science” ! Double shot if it is “reject science” or something similar.

      1. Packer Fan Avatar
        Packer Fan

        Just having some fun Larry. Don’t get too mad.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          No problem! 😉

        2. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          okay. how about luddite?

  2. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    A reader points out the latest figures from Becker’s Hospital Review. Virginia ranks 14th in the country in the percentage of population that has been vaccinated — 52.47%. My guesstimate of 4.5 million vaccinated population was pretty close to Becker’s count of 4,478,000.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      And we would not have gotten here without the Northam Administration’s efforts.. but we can’t say that in BR, right?

  3. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Jim, herd immunity in Northern Virginia? Certainly. Richmond suburbs? Maybe. West of Roanoke? Not even close. About October….Too many places where not even 1/3 are fully vaccinated and at this point they just ain’t gonna do it.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Vaccination resistance is highest in rural white communities, Hispanic communities and African-American communities. So, yes, there are sub-populations where the virus will continue to circulate.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Were some of these demographic groups TRADITIONALLY hesitant to be vaccinated in prior years with other diseases?

        For instance, what would vaccine rates for FLU look like with these same demographic groups?

        In other words, how much was there already and how much is new and involved with more contemporary things like politics rather than reasons for hesitancy in prior years?

      2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        Working for Robertson Logistics right now. So every morning I hit the Amazon delivery station in Gainesville. Most people working the warehouse and driving are under age of 30. My guess half are wearing masks still because they don’t have the shot. The young think they are bullet proof I guess.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          So I’ve stopped wearing masks but carry one and as they say ” when in Rome”! Went to get a x-ray yesterday and was told I could not enter/register without a mask so that’s not optional.

          The problem is – as long as the virus has people it can infect, it will, and replicate and mutate and new strains and variants can develop (just like we see in Flu season). The conventional wisdom seems to be that new variants are no worse than the common cold or flu but many scientists are worried that can go the other way also – it can mutate into deadlier strains that could also be much more resistant to the current vaccines (like super bugs have resistance to antibiotics).

          Yes, younger folks (and older also) think they won’t “get it” or if they do, they’ll fight it off … almost like instinct….over generations….

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Besides, like Kerry implies, Delta is just a cold…
      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header

      We’ll see. Time wounds all heels.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Hard to tell exactly where Steve is relative to other Conservatives and “right” types in BR like Kerry.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          He’s the oxymoron, a smart republican.

  4. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    Moo.

  5. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    James Bacon states:
    “The level of immunity for COVID survivors equals or exceeds that of vaccinated individuals.”

    Is that Bacon or USA policy? I have not heard anyone say that, except those who have had COVID and are using that as reason not to get the vaccine.

    As Steve Haner stated a few weeks ago, there *might* be some merit for just getting one shot if you have had COVID.

    It would make my life easier if having COVID could be considered equal to being being vaccinated. Some music activities are requiring vaccination, and/or for example, admission to UVa etc.

    1. Publius Avatar
      Publius

      Cleveland Clinic in a study of 52000 employees found no increased protection for vaccinating the survived Covid cohort. And there is reason to think the natural response is fuller. (The “vaccine” deals with spike protein only. Natural immunity addresses a number of areas. )
      This really isn’t that hard to understand – if you want to get the Covid vax, get it. If you don’t want it, for whatever reason, don’t get it. If a real law is passed requiring it, which would likely happen only after it is FDA “approved,” then there will likely be, as in prior vaccines, a religious and a medical exception.
      Somehow, prior to Covid, the USA operated on that basis and survived. 60,000,000 people got H1N1, without the daily panic

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        yep – but you left out relevant stuff:

        “This is still a new virus, and more research is needed. It is important to keep in mind that this study was conducted in a population that was younger and healthier than the general population. In addition, we do not know how long the immune system will protect itself against re-infection after COVID-19. It is safe to receive the COVID-19 vaccine even if you have previously tested positive, and we recommend all those who are eligible receive it.
        The Cleveland Clinic
        Limitations of the study
        The authors acknowledged an obvious limitation in their work. Because there was not a policy of asymptomatic employee screening, “previously infected subjects who remained asymptomatic might have been misclassified as previously uninfected. Given this limitation, one should be cautious about drawing conclusions about the protective effect of prior asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

        The study also did not include any children and few elderly subjects, and the majority of those studied would not have been immunosuppressed.

        It’s also not known how this study would hold up with newer variants.”

        You guy cherry pick to suit your own beliefs and ignore what you don’t agree with!

        The big point is right at the top and crystal clear:

        ”
        This is still a new virus, and more research is needed. It is important to keep in mind that this study was conducted in a population that was younger and healthier than the general population. In addition, we do not know how long the immune system will protect itself against re-infection after COVID-19.”

        and here is the link:

        https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/vaccinating-ohio/study-no-previously-infected-cleveland-clinic-employees-who-remained-unvaccinated-were-reinfected

        The science (yes you quoted science) is ongoing …. still… that’s the way it works…

        1. Publius Avatar
          Publius

          Yes, and you cherry pick the “facts” you want.
          I’ll go with lots of history and observed data and make my (much smarter than your) choices –

          Here’s more cherry picking for you and EnergyBoy –
          https://www.biznews.com/health/2021/06/28/covid-19-vaccine-immunity

          Oh, be scared says Larry! We’re all gonna die! Trust the experts! (Except when Trump is in charge, then RESIST!)

          Seriously, get a life. People disagree. I go with freedom…even for you Larry.
          And no more logical fallacies…”Well, does that mean you can spray gas on people in the name of freedom?”

      2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Who says “reason to think the natural response is fuller”? Publius?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          One can find just about any view one prefers on the internet – and lots of “smart” people out there spouting their beliefs that people can and do align with – especially critics and skeptics of science itself.

          So folks believe what they want to believe and call it “freedom”.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Not sure where Bacon got his statement from but it’s not what the CDC says and so it boils down to who you want to believe and clearly there are those who do not believe the CDC.

      Experts say a person who’s had COVID-19 still needs to get vaccinated against the disease.

      They note that the immune response after having the disease isn’t as strong as the defensive response that occurs after vaccination.

      They also note that people who’ve had COVID-19 can still contract and transmit the coronavirus more easily if they haven’t been vaccinated.

      https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-you-need-to-get-vaccinated-even-if-youve-already-had-covid-19#Experts-react-to-Pauls-statement

      Not sure where Steve is on this, Pretty sure I know some others! 😉

      Another problem is that people expect/want ironclad answers that don’t change and the CDC and science does not work that way. They give current assessments based on what they have learned to that point in time. As time goes by, and more data is gathered, it can and does change the CDC’s assessment. When the CDC does that, some folks say they “lie” because they’ve changed their guidance.

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