Bacon's Rebellion

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Vaxx Stats Update

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Credit: Virginia Department of Health

Regional disparities. The Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 portal has added a statewide map showing where the most vaccine doses per capita have been administered. What stands out is that a significantly higher percentage of the population of western Virginia localities have received the vaccine. Click here to view the numbers for individual jurisdictions.

Washington County on the North Carolina border has administered 11,775 shots per 100,00 population. Surry County: only 2,881.

Question: Why the regional disparity? Why is rural/small town western Virginia faring so much better than metropolitan Virginia and Southside? Are western Virginia health districts getting more vaccines? Have they developed more efficient means of delivering the vaccine? It bears looking into.

Rebound or dead cat bounce? A few days ago, Bacon’s Rebellion highlighted the fact that Virginia ranked dead last among the 50 states in the Becker’s Hospital Review ranking of the states by percentage of vaccines vaccinated. I noted that any results should be viewed cautiously due to coding issues and reporting lags. Well, today Virginia has leaped up to a mere 27th worst in the country. Here’s the latest data:

Doses distributed to state: 1,172,375
Doses administered: 594,828
Percentage of distributed vaccines that have been administered: 50.74

Hospitals deliver. Finally, there’s this from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association: Virginia’s hospitals had administered 317,837 doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as of Tuesday. That represents roughly 84,000 doses over the week, a 35% increase.

Given the fact that hospitals have delivered roughly 53% of all COVID vaccines in Virginia, a question arises: How are rural counties with no hospitals doing better than the big metros with multiple hospitals? What delivery mechanisms are they using, and can other localities replicate their success?

Who will give the shots? One good thing I see happening is that retired doctors are being mobilized to give shots. I personally know two retired physicians who have signed up for the program. One of them tells me he has yet to be called upon, though. Is the number of shot-givers a bottleneck in administering the vaccine, or is the problem connecting the retired docs with the people who need the shots? We’ll keep our eye on this.

— JAB

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30 responses to “Vaxx Stats Update”

  1. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    Yesterday Biden said the allocation will be raised to 10 million doses per week. Virginia has 2.7% of America’s population so we should be getting 270,000 doses per week. About a million per month which fully inoculates half a million people per month. At that rate we’ll be done with all the adults right around this time next year.

    15.9% of Virginians are aged 65 and up. That’s 1.35m people. They’re supposed to be getting one half the vaccines with the other half going to front line workers, health care people etc.

    At that rate it will be the end of June before we finish vaccinating those 65 and up. By then we should have also vaccinated all the front line workers, teachers, police, etc.

    Here’s the hard question – when will Virginia be “safe enough” to return to normal?

    It seems to me that once we have vaccinated the most vulnerable – over 65 and front line workers – we should be able to return to normal.

    So, June.

  2. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    How hard is it to learn how to give a shot? When I get my flu shot at the local CVS the pharmacist walks out from behind the counter and administers the shot. While I assume he was trained he’s not an MD.

    Right now, the plan is sketchy. Do all Virginians need two doses? Only adult Virginians? Only 70% of Virginians to get to herd immunity?

    Unfortunately, we appear to be receiving between 25,000 to 27,000 doses per day. That’s 12,500 to 13,500 effective vaccinations (at two doses per person). At that rate it would take 653 days to vaccinate everybody in the state.

    Biden is all over the place with this. In December he claimed there would be 100m vaccinations in his first 100 days. By the time he took office the feds were distributing 1m doses per day so he upped his estimate to 150m per day. Then he said that “this spring” everybody who wants a vaccine can get one. Thirty seconds later he said we’d be on our way to herd immunity by “this summer”. Two days later he claimed that we would have administered 300m vaccines by “end of summer”.

    Listen to him in the video in the attached link. The man bungles thousands with millions speaks in non-sequiters about doses, spring, summer and herd immunity, remains unclear as to whether he’s referring to doses or people (who need two doses).

    Where’s Fauci? At least he could keep the story straight.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-ups-vaccine-goal-1-5-million-shots-day-says-n1255597

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      If you’re getting a shot or vaccine from an MD, we are in a world of trouble.

      A single does of the Pfizer vaccine only conveys ~30% immunity, as was determined by Israeli and verified by the UK.

      https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217

      1. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        Good point. Maybe we do have to vaccinate everybody with two shots to get to herd immunity.

  3. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    How hard is it to learn how to give a shot? When I get my flu shot at the local CVS the pharmacist walks out from behind the counter and administers the shot. While I assume he was trained he’s not an MD.

    Right now, the plan is sketchy. Do all Virginians need two doses? Only adult Virginians? Only 70% of Virginians to get to herd immunity?

    Unfortunately, we appear to be receiving between 25,000 to 27,000 doses per day. That’s 12,500 to 13,500 effective vaccinations (at two doses per person). At that rate it would take 653 days to vaccinate everybody in the state.

    Biden is all over the place with this. In December he claimed there would be 100m vaccinations in his first 100 days. By the time he took office the feds were distributing 1m doses per day so he upped his estimate to 150m per day. Then he said that “this spring” everybody who wants a vaccine can get one. Thirty seconds later he said we’d be on our way to herd immunity by “this summer”. Two days later he claimed that we would have administered 300m vaccines by “end of summer”.

    Listen to him in the video in the attached link. The man bungles thousands with millions speaks in non-sequiters about doses, spring, summer and herd immunity, remains unclear as to whether he’s referring to doses or people (who need two doses).

    Where’s Fauci? At least he could keep the story straight.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-ups-vaccine-goal-1-5-million-shots-day-says-n1255597

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      If you’re getting a shot or vaccine from an MD, we are in a world of trouble.

      A single does of the Pfizer vaccine only conveys ~30% immunity, as was determined by Israeli and verified by the UK.

      https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217

      1. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        Good point. Maybe we do have to vaccinate everybody with two shots to get to herd immunity.

  4. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    Perhaps semantics but VA is ranked 27th by Becker’s today not 37th.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      27 is the right number …

      https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-covid-19-vaccines-administered.html

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Thanks for pointing out the error. Number fixed.

  5. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    Perhaps semantics but VA is ranked 27th by Becker’s today not 37th.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      27 is the right number …

      https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-covid-19-vaccines-administered.html

    2. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Thanks for pointing out the error. Number fixed.

  6. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Virginia policy has been secretive from the get go, so we are not getting the answer to the shot shortage, but certainly sounds like rural west got more of the vaccine.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      I’m thinking it might be a statistical anomaly. Only 2,200 people live in Highland County. Is there a minimum shipment size for the vaccine? Like 24 cans in a case of beer? A shipment of 1,000 vaccines would be 50% of Highland County and 7 100th of one percent of Fairfax County.

  7. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Virginia policy has been secretive from the get go, so we are not getting the answer to the shot shortage, but certainly sounds like rural west got more of the vaccine.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      I’m thinking it might be a statistical anomaly. Only 2,200 people live in Highland County. Is there a minimum shipment size for the vaccine? Like 24 cans in a case of beer? A shipment of 1,000 vaccines would be 50% of Highland County and 7 100th of one percent of Fairfax County.

  8. ksmith8953 Avatar
    ksmith8953

    As I thought, the Crater District is dead in the water.

    1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
      Reed Fawell 3rd

      What, all dead in water!!!

      No, way. You tell him, Carol Jean.

  9. ksmith8953 Avatar
    ksmith8953

    As I thought, the Crater District is dead in the water.

    1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
      Reed Fawell 3rd

      What, all dead in water!!!

      No, way. You tell him, Carol Jean.

  10. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    Interesting numbers. What looks like the City of Richmond has gotten over 50,000 vaccine doses while much larger Henrico County has received under 30,000.

    Fairfax County (population – 1.15m) has received 184,325 doses or 1 dose per 6.2 people. Loudoun County (population – 413,0000) has received 25,175 doses or 1 per 16.4 people.

    What is Northam doing?

    1. idiocracy Avatar
      idiocracy

      “What is Northam doing?”

      Converting oxygen into carbon dioxide.

      1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
        Reed Fawell 3rd

        “What is Northam doing?”

        He’s toting up political supporters and opponents per region or county then distributing accordingly, be my best guess.

    2. sherlockj Avatar
      sherlockj

      If you have no plan, everything meets it.

    3. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Well, Northam says he’s distributing the vaccine based on population …

      “It’s not just the Southwest. It’s the Eastern Shore, where I come from, and anywhere in Virginia — people are saying why aren’t we getting more doses? The shipment comes into Virginia, and we dispense it based on population-based data. That’s the way the system will continue to move,” Northam said. “I think the challenge moving forward is going to be supply dependent.”

      But that doesn’t seem to be even close to true.

      On the VDH website the City of Richmond is its own local health district as are Henrico and Chesterfield counties.

      An interactive map, “Location Where Vaccine Was Shipped – By Local Health District” shows:

      Henrico – Vaccine doses received 29,800 (population – 330,818) people per vax – 11.1
      Richmond – Vaccine doses received 50,200 (population 230,436) people per vax – 4.6
      Chesterfield – Vaccine doses received 49,775 (population 352,802) people per vax – 7.1

      https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines-received/

      Eastern Shore Health District (Accomack and Northampton Counties) – Vaccines received – 6,150 (population 44,147) people per vax – 7.18

      Overall, Virginia has received 1 dose per 7.2 people.

      What is Northam talking about with his distributed based on population? not in two of Virginia’s most populous counties – Henrico and Loudoun.

      I get the distinct impression that Northam has no idea what’s actually going on.

      Here … show me where I’m going wrong …

      https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines-received/

  11. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    Interesting numbers. What looks like the City of Richmond has gotten over 50,000 vaccine doses while much larger Henrico County has received under 30,000.

    Fairfax County (population – 1.15m) has received 184,325 doses or 1 dose per 6.2 people. Loudoun County (population – 413,0000) has received 25,175 doses or 1 per 16.4 people.

    What is Northam doing?

  12. Lawrence Hincker Avatar
    Lawrence Hincker

    Jim – I don’t know about other parts of the state, but I am familiar with my area – the New River Valley. Montgomery County where I live ranks among the best in the state for vcxx rate.

    Early in the pandemic, back in April, the local health district and the Town of Blacksburg pulled together major players in the area – counties, towns, hospitals, other health providers, the planning district, and business groups. They developed a partnership that got a jumpstart on Covid testing, mass testing sites, communications for best practices, business recovery, among others. It even had a finger in PPP loans through the business partners.

    So, when the vaccines started arriving in December, avenues of communications were already open and vaccinators were ready to go. The health district partnered with a church for a mass vaccination location. The had the Medical Reserve Corps on standby before anybody at the state level was talking about volunteers. They had small pharmacies lined up throughout the region for vaccination.

    This part of the state was primed. When the state started distributing vaccines, they supplied local VDH offices based on how quickly shots got into arms. The more they used, the more they could order. Alas, in the name of “equity” the state will now distribute per capita regardless of how well the VDH districts are organized. From my perspective, we likely will see the state’s inefficiency and lack of planning exported to other parts of the state.

  13. Lawrence Hincker Avatar
    Lawrence Hincker

    Jim – I don’t know about other parts of the state, but I am familiar with my area – the New River Valley. Montgomery County where I live ranks among the best in the state for vcxx rate.

    Early in the pandemic, back in April, the local health district and the Town of Blacksburg pulled together major players in the area – counties, towns, hospitals, other health providers, the planning district, and business groups. They developed a partnership that got a jumpstart on Covid testing, mass testing sites, communications for best practices, business recovery, among others. It even had a finger in PPP loans through the business partners.

    So, when the vaccines started arriving in December, avenues of communications were already open and vaccinators were ready to go. The health district partnered with a church for a mass vaccination location. The had the Medical Reserve Corps on standby before anybody at the state level was talking about volunteers. They had small pharmacies lined up throughout the region for vaccination.

    This part of the state was primed. When the state started distributing vaccines, they supplied local VDH offices based on how quickly shots got into arms. The more they used, the more they could order. Alas, in the name of “equity” the state will now distribute per capita regardless of how well the VDH districts are organized. From my perspective, we likely will see the state’s inefficiency and lack of planning exported to other parts of the state.

  14. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    Yesterday Biden said the allocation will be raised to 10 million doses per week. Virginia has 2.7% of America’s population so we should be getting 270,000 doses per week. About a million per month which fully inoculates half a million people per month. At that rate we’ll be done with all the adults right around this time next year.

    15.9% of Virginians are aged 65 and up. That’s 1.35m people. They’re supposed to be getting one half the vaccines with the other half going to front line workers, health care people etc.

    At that rate it will be the end of June before we finish vaccinating those 65 and up. By then we should have also vaccinated all the front line workers, teachers, police, etc.

    Here’s the hard question – when will Virginia be “safe enough” to return to normal?

    It seems to me that once we have vaccinated the most vulnerable – over 65 and front line workers – we should be able to return to normal.

    So, June.

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