Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Uneven Jobs Performance for Virginia Metros

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

Whatever the cause of Virginia’s sputtering job-creation performance, the problem can’t be blamed entirely upon sequestration. Bureau of Labor Statistics data accessible on Governing magazine’s website displays job growth between July 2012 and July 2013:

job_growth

The Washington metro area, the perennial leader in job creation, did fall to the middle of the pack — 164th strongest growth among the 397 metro areas tracked — a dismal performance (by Washington standards) that can be explained by sequestration and budget brinksmanship. But Hampton Roads, whose economy is also highly dependent upon federal spending, showed stronger-than-usual job creation, logging in at 49th nationally.

The job-creation record was grim in the Richmond, Lynchburg and Charlotteville metros. Indeed, Charlottesville managed to lose 2.6% of its jobs, the third worst performance of any metro in the country. What on earth is going on there? Do people in Charlottesville know they are in a recession? Could it be a trick of the data?

Small metros Winchester (number one in the country!) and Blacksburg-Christiansburg (number 27) were bright spots. It’s nice to see some dynamism outside the Golden Crescent. — JAB

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28 responses to “Uneven Jobs Performance for Virginia Metros”

  1. Tysons Engineer Avatar
    Tysons Engineer

    Oh come now James, you are smart enough to know that percent change without total # is about as deceptive of a statistic as is possible.

    What is the total employment added in Winchester compared to Washington Metro? A 1.6% increase in VA Washington Metro (population of 1.5 million) equates to thousands of jobs and I would assume far more than any of the other regions with the exception of perhaps Hampton Roads with 3% and a somewhat comparable population.

    Growth in this state continues to be led by the golden crescent. It is good that other areas are seeing strong percent changes, but they need to start innovating, creating, and coming up with new models of economic growth if they plan on being actual job centers.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      I don’t disagree with anything you said — except the implication that I implied in any way that Winchester’s outstanding performance is comparable in significance to that of the Big Three metros in the Golden Crescent. Of course it’s not. It’s nothing more than a bright spot, as I stated in my post.

  2. reed fawell III Avatar
    reed fawell III

    Tyson’s Engineer has a good point. Without trying to diminish his point, I was struck by Winchester’s remarkable performance in this chart.

    There are many ways a town’s population can boom, not all of them necessarily good for the long term. Plus I am not up to date with events in Winchester over the past 6 or 7 years. But, given that my memories of Winchester over the years since that 1950s, I recall being astounded at the town’s downtown rebirth that I discovered during the 1990s. This renewal, obviously built on excellent historic restoration combined with fine urban planning, included savvy business friendly revival tactics, that struck me then to be a text book example of what all historic Virginia towns should then have been doing to revive themselves and leverage up their future.

    So, without now knowing for sure, I suspect that Winchester is reaping the rewards for decades of hard and creative effort done the right way. If so perhaps Winchester Virginia is proof of an earlier comment, namely that:

    “Perhaps to sum up, land is not only indestructible, but also endlessly changeable, fungible, and divisible, by use, ownership, and function.”

    For details see: https://www.baconsrebellion.com/2013/11/the-electoral-implications-of-smart-growth.html#comments

  3. Tysons Engineer Avatar
    Tysons Engineer

    I didn’t mean to discount Winchester, I mean jobs are jobs, and in this economy it is tough especially in small towns to get any growth in them. I think my point was mostly directed at your statement

    “The Washington metro area, the perennial leader in job creation, did fall to the middle of the pack”

    And in this subset there is nothing factually incorrect about that statement. It is true. But it is the way the data has been bunched in the first place (obviously not your fault) that is raising my eyebrows. I’d like to see where Washington Metro fell in terms of Large Cities > 2 million residents or perhaps just a contextual provision with the inclusion of the total jobs created along side of the % change in order to screen for statistical anomalies such as a small town gaining a single new employer who pushes the numbers out of whack.

    1. reed fawell III Avatar
      reed fawell III

      Totally agree.

      But the smaller towns of Virginia also are very important to its future. And that hold true in a substantial number of cases irrespective of whether they also attract corporate businesses. In those cases, such towns need to be attractive places simply for people to live in. I suspect that has a strong roll in Winchester’s success that other towns should emulate if they have not.

      1. Tysons Engineer Avatar
        Tysons Engineer

        Do you follow the Strong Towns movement? If not I think you should if that is your stance (IIUC). Basically it isnt about macro-projects for economic sustainability but instead condensing land use back to a model that disincentivizes growth outside of the traditional town. In other words, stop making Mayberry into a suburb.

        Just a tangential thought.

        1. James A. Bacon Avatar
          James A. Bacon

          I’m a big fan of Strong Towns, and I’ve re-posted one of Chuck Marohn’s blog posts on Bacon’s Rebellion.

          1. Tysons Engineer Avatar
            Tysons Engineer

            Disregard the irony of the fact that I write about Tysons, which has been the poster child of mega projects for over a decade now.

        2. reed fawell III Avatar
          reed fawell III

          I too am a strong believer in the strong town movement, including the tenet of macro versus condensing growth in the smaller town model. That’s one important iteration of the smart growth movement.

          Matters quite likely are a bit more complicated from the norm in the case of Winchester, however. I’ll elaborate below when time permits.

  4. thebyurokrat Avatar
    thebyurokrat

    I’d argue that Charlottesville, given its dependence upon University-related expenditures (both public and private), was heavily impacted by sequestration as well. Federal research expenditures are a substantial driver of the regional economy, both directly and indirectly, and the large cuts in NIH and other federal research supporters had an almost immediate impact on UVA and other large research institutions.

    1. reed fawell III Avatar
      reed fawell III

      I suspect you are quite right.

      And I suggest that this should give UVa. reason for a pause. UVa. needs to think about this long, hard, and well, before they spend vast sums to buy expensive infrastructure to chase a future that may well turn out, in whole or in substantial part, to be an illusion.

      This is especially true if UVa. diverts funds from other university programs such as liberal arts where UVa already enjoys substantial strength and where relatively small outlays of funds wisely spent can go a very long way towards building those strengths into preeminence. And build for UVa. a dominant position in its proven market. Should UVa. forgo or put at risk this opportunity, while in fact it pretends not to do so.

      We are talking major risk taking here. To accomplish its high tech government and private enterprise contracting ambitions, UVa has to climb a very steep, long and expensive hill, and start that climb from a very low point on that steep curve. And it will have to spend major amounts of money on highly specialized platforms that rest on a bet that itself rests on shaky ground – the vagaries of government politics, the future of highly entrepreneurial (risky) tech and science initiatives, and the decisions of a few people people (bureaucrats or business interests) over whom UVa. has no control no matter how money it might ffspends chasing those few people for their “business.”

      And these people that UVa will be chasing after for money couldn’t care less about UVa. Nor should they. It’s all about business after all.

      Does UVa want to bet its future on all this risk? Can it justify spending taxpayer and student student tuition money on this business quest?

      Is this a proper way to accomplish its mission as the flagship public institution tasked to provide as many students as possible with the best education offered in the Commonwealth of Virginia?

      The above chart is waving a big red flag.

      1. Tysons Engineer Avatar
        Tysons Engineer

        I believe VaTech (Blacksburg) gets more federal research aid than UVA, especially in the sciences, so its a bit odd that it instead shines in this report.

        1. reed fawell III Avatar
          reed fawell III

          UVa. shines in this report for the very reason you mention. VaTech has long been the dominant player in the federal research aid business in Virginia while UVa. share of the market is minuscule.

          Now UVa. intends to radically shift gears and challenge not only players like Virginia tech but others like John’s Hopkins.

          Why?

          Might now be a poor time for David to step unarmed into the ring with several well armed Goliaths? UVa. research revenues are in a several year decline, losing its paltry share of business, rather than the reverse. This of course highlights the risk of betting big now.

  5. cpzilliacus Avatar
    cpzilliacus

    Jim, I commend you for publishing this. Jobs, job creation and job loss trumps all else, and outside of issues related to budgets and taxation, at the top of the list of priorities for every elected official.

  6. NewVirginia Avatar
    NewVirginia

    Keep in mind that smaller metro areas’ numbers are heavily skewed by the natural movements of large employers and institutions. Winchester may have had a major new plant come in during the past year and Albemarle may have lost one. Its hard to draw conclusions about policies from one year of data like this. When politicians become beholden to pure jobs numbers, they give out incentives and subsidies that may not be a good deal for the area – and they focus on low-wage or destructive jobs that may be easy to acquire but not as valuable long-term.

  7. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    yes.. the data causes more questions than it answers that in turn leads to speculation…

    In the world we live in today -what types of “jobs” get “created” that “make something” besides government and health care?

    who is the biggest non-govt, private employer not providing goods or services to government or health care in Winchester or Charlottesville?

    http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/5/business-places-10_Winchester-VA_VAWin.html

    50 largest employers in Winchester:

    http://virginialmi.com/report_center/community_profiles/5121S49020.pdf page 21

    largest employers in Charlottesville:

    www [dot] charlottesville.org [slash] Index [dot] aspx?page=578

  8. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    if you google the largest employers in Winchester and Charlottesville and subtract out the govt (fed, state,local), healthcare, and commercial retail what are you left with?

    Here’s the 25 largest employers in Winchester:

    1. Valley Health System
    2. Frederick County School Board
    3. Winchester City Public Schools
    4. Wal Mart
    5. Rubbermaid Commercial Prod LLC
    6. County of Frederick
    7. Shenandoah University
    8. U.S. Department of Homeland Defense
    9. Navy Federal Credit Union
    10. U.S. Department of Defense
    11. City of Winchester
    12. The Home Depot
    13. Lord Fairfax Community College
    14. Martin’s Food Market
    15. Kraft Foods
    16. Axiom Staffing Group
    17. H.P. Hood, Inc.
    18. Osullivan Films Inc
    19. Grafton School, Inc.
    20. Trex Company Inc & Subsid
    21. McDonald’s
    22. Kohl’s Department Stores
    23. American Woodmark Corporation
    24. U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation
    25. Lowes’ Home Centers, Inc.

  9. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    fifty largest employers in Charlottesville:

    University of Virginia / Blue Ridge Hospital 1000+
    2 University of Virginia Medical Center 1000+
    3 County of Albemarle 1000+
    4 Martha Jefferson Hospital 1000+
    5 UVA Health Services Foundation 1000+
    6 City of Charlottesville 1000+
    7 State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance
    1000+
    8 Charlottesville City School Board 500-999
    9 US Department of Defense 500-999
    10 Fluvanna County Public School Board 500-999
    11 Wal-mart 500-999
    12 Nothrop Grumman Corporation 500-999
    13 Greene County School Board 500-999
    14 Region Ten Community Services 500-999
    15 Wintergreen Partners 500-999
    16 Food Lion 500-999
    17 Piedmont Virginia Community College 500-999
    18 Aramark Campus LLC 500-999
    19 Nelson County School Board 250-499
    20 SNL Security LP 250-499
    21 Athena Innovative Solutions Inc 250-499
    22 Crutchfield Corporation 250-499
    23 Atlantic Coast Athletic Club 250-499
    24 Kroger 250-499
    25 Assoc for Investment Management (CFA Institute) 250-499

  10. Darrell Avatar
    Darrell

    Still buying BLS BS I C.

  11. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I guess my view is that – if you go to an MSA – and you subtract out the Fed/State/Local jobs, schools, health care and retail commerce and trades, what is left?

    all those other jobs are necessary to serve whatever population is there and they are not true “created” jobs and many of them are funded by govt, not only direct jobs, but pensions, Social security, Medicare, etc.

    I don’t know what the correct classification is – but it is the jobs that are not these that I cite – that i would consider valid “created” jobs that are genuinely private jobs additional to a region.

    When we look at jobs and job creation for a region – I think it gets polluted by commingling these govt/medical/retail/trade jobs – which are not “created” but there because of the population.

  12. reed fawell III Avatar
    reed fawell III

    Thank you for the lists of corporate employers in C’ville versus Winchester.

    I was surprised by the almost complete dominance of public or public related employers in Charlottesville and its paucity of private enterprise employers. I would not have expected such a remarkable imbalance.

    I was not at all surprised to find the absolute reverse in Winchester. Back in the 1990s after a friend asked me visit and backstop his interest in making a real estate investment there, I came away believing that that town’s chances for an affluent future were worth betting big money on.

    First, one had only to consult a map. Winchester sat on a vital crossroads served in all directions by fine indeed unique roads found no where else in the neighborhood. Rt 81, the primary north south Interstate truck route east of the Appalachians, also gave access west to Pittsburgh and beyond. It also combined with major regional roads like Rt 7, Rt 50, Rt 522, Rt 17, and others linking the town into I-66 on south and I-70 north, west and east.

    Va.’ nearly inland port validated its location. The mountains west protect the town against competition from that direction. Virginia’s Piedmont conservation zone does the same on the east side. These buffers work paradoxically to insure Winchester’s prominence, while they also allow it to enjoy a bubble over affect from northern Virginia’s explosive growth.

    The town’s amenities – A regional airport, fine local hospital, local college, fine country club, and reviving business community – added armor and weight to the dynamite in town ongoing restoration and improvement.

    A 40 minute meetings with town planners and their plans sealed my impressions. The room was filled with practical ambition driven by energy, smarts, and imagination. As if the town was both preserving and shaking off its past in ways that helped convince a visitor that they would keep using historic preservation to everyone’s advantage, and in so doing power healthy long lasting growth that spun off wealth rather than stymied it.

    Since that visit I’ve whizzed by a few times going fast somewhere else. Next time I’ll stop in and look around. Likely I’ll be disappointed, and be substantially disappointed in places, most like outside of town. I hope not. But I fear so. As said above, doing the stuff in town is plenty hard enough. Doing it outside of old towns can be far harder, especially in Virginia.

    But most of all that historic restoration and revival, breathing new vibrant life into it old buildings, giving them a youth far grander than before, this can do wonders for a place, leverage up it future to beyond imagination.

    So old buildings restored is what struck me the most about Winchester then. How the folks there were putting their soul back into their hometown to fire up their future. That is priceless. Especially so in these times when we often build nowhere throwaway places that litter our landscape. Instead they should use their past to build their future, not waste it.

  13. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I kinda thought both Cville and Winchester looked not that different myself.

    Winchester:

    1. Valley Health System <— health care – Medicare, MedicAid
    2. Frederick County School Board – govt
    3. Winchester City Public Schools – govt
    4. Wal Martl – WalMart is the biggest private employer in Winchester?
    5. Rubbermaid Commercial Prod LLC – looks like a real private job creator
    6. County of Frederick – govt
    7. Shenandoah University school – private… job creator
    8. U.S. Department of Homeland Defense – govt
    9. Navy Federal Credit Union – odd… can a credit union REALLY be #9?
    10. U.S. Department of Defense – govt
    11. City of Winchester – govt
    12. The Home Depot – private – rooftops

    so out of the top 12 employers in Winchester, half of them are government.

    that's not good… is it?

  14. reed fawell III Avatar
    reed fawell III

    Below lists might help. Note difference in non public or defense related local employers. Note C’Ville has world class University, and city population of 44,000, while Winchester has no world class University, and a city population of 26,000, yet more than twice the number of non public or defense contractor related employers. Note Westchester’s serves several well known retail names as their regional or national distribution centers. This tells me that most likely Winchester is booming in private sector. And that C’VILLE is doing quite poorly on that account.

    Here’s your list of 25 largest employers in Winchester:

    1. Valley Health System
    2. Frederick County School Board
    3. Winchester City Public Schools
    4. WAL MART
    5. RUBBERMAID COMMERCIAL PROD LLC
    6. County of Frederick
    7. Shenandoah University
    8. U.S. Department of Homeland Defense
    9. Navy Federal Credit Union
    10. U.S. Department of Defense
    11. City of Winchester
    12. THE HOME DEPOT
    13. Lord Fairfax Community College
    14. MARTIN’S FOOD MARKET Market
    15. KRAFT FOODS
    16. AXIUM STAFFING GROUP
    17. H.P. HOOD, INC.
    18. OSULLIVAN FILMS Inc
    19. GRAFTON SCHOOL, Inc.
    20. TREX COMPANY Inc & SUBSID
    21. MCDONALDS
    22. KOLK’S DEPARTMENT Stores
    23. AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION
    24. U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation
    25. LOWES HOME CENTERS, INC.
    Or a TOTAL of 14 (FOURTEEN) PRIVATE and NON DEFENSE related

    Here’s your list of top twenty-five in Charlottesville:

    1. University of Virginia / Blue Ridge Hospital 1000+
    2 University of Virginia Medical Center 1000+
    3 County of Albemarle 1000+
    4 Martha Jefferson Hospital 1000+
    5 UVA Health Services Foundation 1000+
    6 City of Charlottesville 1000+
    7 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTO INSURANCE 1000+
    8 Charlottesville City School Board 500-999
    9 US Department of Defense 500-999
    10 Fluvanna County Public School Board 500-999
    11 WAL-MART – 500-999
    12 Nothrop Grumman Corporation 500-999
    13 Greene County School Board 500-999
    14 Region Ten Community Services 500-999
    15 Wintergreen Partners 500-999
    16 FOOD LION 500-999
    17 Piedmont Virginia Community College 500-999
    18 Aramark Campus LLC 500-999
    19 Nelson County School Board 250-499
    20 SNL Security LP 250-499
    21 Athena Innovative Solutions Inc 250-499
    22 CRUTCHFIELD CORP 250-499
    23 ATLANTIC COAST ATHLETIC CLUB 250-499
    24 KROGERS 250-499
    25 ASSOCIATION FOR INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (CFA Institute) 250-499

    Or a TOTAL of 6 (SIX) PRIVATE and NON DEFENSE related

  15. reed fawell III Avatar
    reed fawell III

    This poor performance by Charlottesville should be a wake-up call for all college towns.

    Moody’s Investor service this past Friday reported that 28% of all rated public institutions predict a decline in their net tuition revenue this year. This revenue source is typically the central pillar of their financial health.

    This bad news comes on top of the Chronicle of Higher Educations report issued last month. Half of its 436 participants (both public and private) also reported that they were falling short of their enrollment and net tuition revenue projections this year.

    One driver of this bad news is that more and more families are questioning the value of higher education versus its costs. One main rationale behind this growing suspicion is obvious. Such doubts understandably grow as middle-class incomes continue to stagnate while college costs drown those families and students in debt. This trend grows at a persistent rate that is now alarming. And it is acerbated exponentially by the inability of many graduates to find jobs, much less jobs that match their investment in a college degree. Hence to value of college degrees are falling rapidly.

    Thus the old ways of educating and attracting students with ever more expensive infrastructure – luxury dorms, fitness centers, food outlets, and vast menus of pleasure fluff courses in glossy academic buildings – are failing in multiple ways. They are failing to attract students, maintain enrollment, or enhance value of college degrees.

    Indeed such such old ways of doing business are now doubly dangerous. They vastly increase institutional debt while they also fail to increase institutional revenues or the value of their product – college degrees. Simply put, they are not only bad investments, but they are also highly dangerous investments for both the school and its students and families.

    For a sampling of old ways of doing business in higher education see:

    https://www.baconsrebellion.com/2013/09/has-college-enrollment-peaked.html#comments (see also last comment therein.)

    Regarding the current enrollment and revenue reports and analysis, see the Chronicle of higher ed. website:

    blogs/bottomline/are-colleges-ready-to-adjust-to-a-new-higher-education-landscape/?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en

    1. reed fawell III Avatar
      reed fawell III

      Below is the corrected Chronicle website reference.

      http://chronicle.com/blogs/bottomline/are-colleges-ready-to-adjust-to-a-new-higher-education-landscape/?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en

    2. reed fawell III Avatar
      reed fawell III

      For other perspectives on this topic as concerns Charlottesville see the following counter information found at:

      http://www.cvilletomorrow.org/news/article/16619-place-design-report/

      1. reed fawell III Avatar
        reed fawell III

        What is remarkable about this article is how little C’ville can spend on building up its urban design group. This is shocking to me.

        What are people thinking? How penny wise and pound foolish this is. I’ve no doubt that urban design and implementation is a primary obstacle to C’ville’s growth. How remarkable that the state can pay $300 million for an unnecessary by-pass but will not find a way to grant the city $200,000 annually for “hiring a design professional, an economic analyst and two interns.”

        Something is out of kilter and needs fixing.

    3. reed fawell III Avatar
      reed fawell III

      For support of Has college Enrollment Peaked article comments, see also this dealing with UVA luxury dorms at: http://www.c-ville.com/west-mains-big-boom-how-much-luxe-student-housing-does-charlottesville-need/#.UpPqLY09Xk5

      Regarding the alarming drain on students means to pay for college see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/17/the-typical-american-family-makes-less-than-it-did-in-1989/

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