Supporters of the Rail-to-Dulles Metro project are in ecstasy over the apparent reversal by U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters over federal funding for the first leg of the project. Judging from the Washington Post, however, the switch looks more like a triumph of political pressure rather than a dispassionate re-evaluation of the facts.
Grassroots pressure was intense. As the Post reports, members of the Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce deluged state and federal officials with thousands of faxes and emails daily. There can be little doubt either that members of Virginia’s congressional delegation twisted arms. As Sen. Jim Webb states in a press release: “I intend to continue to work closely with my colleagues in Congress and in Virginia government … toward a successful outcome for the Dulles rail extension project.” (My italics.) U.S. Representatives Tom Davis and Frank Wolf have been hectoring the Bush administration as well.
I have no idea if Ed Risse is right in his surmise that the Bushies backtracked to provide political cover for Wolf, whose congressional district is trending Democratic, while leaving themselves an out so they can kill the project later. But it’s a reasonable hypothesis.
Our blogger friend Too Many Taxes has provided a copy of the letter that Peters sent to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, which provides some insight into what’s going on. Without question the feds have left themselves two gigantic loopholes should they choose to spike the project at a later date.
On the positive side, Peters wrote:
As a result of the collaboration between Federal and State officials, the project sponsor and other stakeholders, the financial stability and oversight of the Project has improved. Cost reductions have been verified, and mechanisms have been established to enhance inter-organizational cooperation, technical capacity and project management.
But the transportation secretary pointed to two issues that still could derail the project. One of those concerns — belabored on this blog, I might add — is the financial condition of the Metropolitan Washington Area Transit Authority, which would operate the rail service. Writes Peters: “I want to re-emphasize the importance of the upkeep and maintenance of the existing system. WMATA recently identified $489 million in urgent unfunded capital needs over the next 6 years over and above its current capital funding plan.” Here’s the poison pill:
I am asking your office, WMATA and members of the WMATA jurisdictions to commit to undertake the required steps to guarantee the significant capital rehabilitation necessary for the overall system to enter into and maintain a good state of repair. These steps should include … identifying and committing funds for the first year of those needs.
Think about that: Washington area jurisdictions have fallen $489 million behind in capital funding for the Metro system. It would be a political miracle if they simply stopped falling farther behind. Under current fiscal circumstances — the state tapped out much of its borrowing capacity when it approved the latest round of higher-education bonds — actually making up the difference would be a herculean achievement.
Peters’ other concern was the risk that, during a period of increasing inflation in the construction sector, the project could experience massive cost overruns. “We believe that the Project still represents substantial risk to the taxpayers,” she wrote the governor, “and we urge you to continue efforts to reduce exposure and transfer risk from the public to the private sector.”
Again, Peters was expressing a legitimate concern. But how is the Kaine administration supposed to mitigate risks at this advanced stage of the project? Reopen contract negotiations with the construction contractors, Bechtel and the Washington Group? Given ongoing construction inflation — an Associated General Contractors of America report notes that price increases are greatest in the “highway and street” and “heavy” construction categories — Bechtel/Washington Group is less likely to respond with concessions than with demands to raise the price of its bid or to shift risks back to the state! Peters has put the Kaniacs between a rock and a hard place indeed.
On the other hand, the feds signaled these concerns a long time ago, and the Chamber boosters, Virginia’s congressional delegation and the Kaine administration have bulled ahead despite the warning signs. I’ll leave the last word with state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax, who wins my vote for best quote of the day: “It’s the greatest tragedy for taxpayers in a long time. It’s going to suck down every available transportation dollar that comes within its gravitational pull.”