Bacon's Rebellion

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The Transmission Bottleneck for Renewable Energy

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

by James A. Bacon

You want more renewable energy? You’re going to need more high-voltage transmission lines to move intermittent wind and solar power around the country to balance fluctuating supply and demand. And you’d better get started. Transmission planning and construction involves long lead times, typically between seven and ten years.

“The window may be closing to develop the needed transmission expansion to enable the optimization of clean energy, meet state clean energy objectives, and other ‘voluntary’ demand for low-cost renewable energy,” summarizes a new study, “How Transmission Planning & Cost Allocation Processes Are Inhibiting Wind & Solar Development in SPP, MISO, & PJM.”

That’s not coming from some fossil fuel-funded global warming skeptic. The report was underwritten by the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) in coordination with the American Clean Power Association and the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Those groups are sending up a warning flare to alert Americans to a critical bottleneck to renewable development. There is a major disconnect between the goals of numerous states, such as Virginia, to achieve zero-carbon electric grids by 2050 and the ability of the entities overseeing the electric transmission grid.

“The availability of backbone transmission capacity (generally 345 kV and above) is essential to the efficient and least cost deployment of U.S. solar and wind resources,” states the study. Better planning is needed at the Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) level — Virginia belongs to the PJM regional organization — “to identify the geographic areas where untapped renewable energy resources exist and develop optimal and cost-efficient paths for transmission infrastructure development to deliver low-cost renewable resources to load centers.”

Solar and wind power are coming, the report states. Fifteen states and territories have adopted mandates to achieve 100% carbon-free renewable energy. Electric utilities and corporate buyers are making their own commitments as well. Combined with continued cost declines for wind and solar, renewable energy “will be the principle source of electric generation in the future.”

Here’s the catch: “Yet, existing transmission planning processes have been insufficient in preparing the electric grid for this future resource mix.”

PJM and other regional transmission organizations have focused on meeting the current reliability and economic needs of the electric grid. “These processes were not designed to identify the necessary transmission expansion to enable future renewable energy development.” asserts the report. “The needed backbone transmission development has been essentially stalled.”

Prospective renewable-power generators are confronted with high network-upgrade costs to connect with the transmission system — sometimes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Bottlenecks and delays as long as four years have prevented hundreds of renewable energy projects from reaching commercial operation, states the report. “There were 834 GW of proposed generators waiting in interconnection queues nationwide at the end of 2019, almost 90 percent of which were renewable and storage resources.”

Bacon’s bottom line: Governor Ralph Northam and the General Assembly have mandated a 100% zero-carbon energy grid by 2050. Little attention has been given ensuring the reliability of an electric grid 100% built upon intermittent power sources, especially during extreme weather events like the one Texas experienced earlier this year. Massive deployment of battery storage might be one potential solution, albeit an incredibly expensive one. Another alternative is importing electricity from other states and regions where different weather patterns prevail. But that, as the study makes clear, will require significant upgrades to the transmission grid.

Building and upgrading transmission lines is invariably unpopular. The planning and approval process can drag on for years. Will that capacity exist when Virginia needs it? Does anyone even know what transmission-grid upgrades will be needed on Virginia soil and be subject to Virginia regulatory approvals?

Curly the electric lineman

The electric generating and transmission system has been described as the world’s most complicated machine. Right now, the stooges in the General Assembly are in charge of maintaining important pieces of that machine. Unlike the Three Stooges in this clip, who knew they were lame brains, Virginia legislators see themselves as all knowing, all wise and all competent. What could go wrong?

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17 responses to “The Transmission Bottleneck for Renewable Energy”

  1. Thomas Hadwin Avatar
    Thomas Hadwin

    There is a false assumption behind this discussion, including the response by the solar industry. A great deal more transmission is required only if we fail to stabilize or reduce our demand and if we develop solar primarily as remote utility-scale installations (as is currently proposed in Virginia).

    If much of new solar is developed at customer locations, especially at commercial and industrial sites where the land is already disturbed, and connected at the distribution level – then our existing transmission connections should be adequate for Virginia. This would also increase reliability.

    There is a potential benefit in creating some high-voltage DC transmission to make Midwest wind energy more available to the East, but this would be more for backup purposes not as a primary means that would displace the advantages of distributed solar.

    During the recent storm in Texas 30 GW of thermal power plants (gas, coal, and nuclear) were unavailable to meet the 66 GW peak. A good deal of this was due to gas delivery facilities being frozen and gas diverted for heating use that could have fueled power plants. But nuclear plants were unavailable because the transmission system was out.

    A transmission line is a single point of failure that can make many operational sources of generation (including wind and solar) unavailable to meet the load.

    The utility industry makes more money by building more transmission. Utilities are a major investor in utility-scale solar so they have the attention of the solar industry. The solution proposed does not serve customers’ interests. It greatly increase costs and reduces reliability.

    Distributed solar installed by customers (or at their behest) would be the cheapest and most reliable solution. When the sun does not shine, the conventional units already built would be enough to meet any demand for the next 25 years, as long as we held demand steady. This is in everyone’s interest – except the utilities’, that’s why we need to pay them differently.

    Investing in more 20th century fixes to 21st century problems is not the answer.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Tom, all the points you make are valid. But you leave out one reaaaallly important point. What is the comparative cost of installing utility-scale solar vs. community-scale solar vs. artisan-scale solar on individual rooftops?

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        At this point (with the current incentives) my residential solar project will provide a 4-6% ROI for the next 25 years (depends on SREC values). It would not take much to incentivize it to where individuals will be clambering to install a system on their house. Dominion will fight it tooth and nail. I inked my contract last week.

      2. korourke80 Avatar
        korourke80

        Utility-scale solar is much cheaper than other technologies, even with the cost of additional transmission added in. Which is why additional transmission is critical.

        Asset manager Lazard releases one of the leading analyses comparing the levelized costs of the various technologies, available here: https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2020/

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Since wind/solar actually are distributed , I would have thought that would not require moving the electricity it generates from one place to another.

    If Henrico has their solar panels and Culpeper has theirs then all you need is the existing grid to move no more power than it used to since more of it would be generated locally than before.

    The localities that turn down wind/solar would be making their localities more vulnerable to needing power from elsewhere.

    I’m a battery skeptic though. I don’t doubt batteries can be built but so far they’re ungodly expensive.

    If batteries were the answer, the worlds islands would build wind/solar and use batteries at night. Instead, most of them still burn diesel fuel and if wind/solar/batteries are not cheaper than diesel – they got a ways to go.

    1. Acbar Avatar
      Acbar

      That’s part of the problem, wind and solar are NOT adequately distributed. Wind generation in particular is built where the weather stats indicate the wind blows longer and stronger (e.g., Indiana), and solar where cloudy days are fewer and the sun stronger; both tend to be built where land is cheap as well as near a transmission line with plenty of excess capacity in it. It’s expensive to buy land around cities. The attraction of off-shore wind development is, it can be near where the coastal population centers are, yet the site is relatively inexpensive (even including construction costs) and the wind is plentiful. We need more solar on rooftops, particularly businesses, but it hasn’t taken off around here yet.

      As for batteries, cheap, non-toxic battery storage is always “just around the corner” — has been for 20 years. But there are plenty of technical studies that give hope for a breakthrough.

  3. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    Jim, thank you for continuing to pay attention to electric energy issues. I agree with you, transmission is a long lead time item, and an increasingly necessary component as the percentage of renewables generation climbs.

    That said, I agree with Tom H. that new transmission can be oversold. Distributed generation (especially solar on home and commercial rooftops) would blunt the need for more backbone transmission in the 12-state PJM RTO region. It wouldn’t eliminate the need, of course, for a way to import and/or distribute the generation from the backup sources needed for when the sun doesn’t shine. Right now those are fossil fueled and nuclear resources, but I remain hopeful that we will see breakthroughs in cheap battery storage in my lifetime, and battery units can be distributed to match the distribution of solar generation.

    You say, “Does anyone even know what transmission-grid upgrades will be needed on Virginia soil and be subject to Virginia regulatory approvals?” I can assure you, PJM planners and planning committees of members look at that constantly, and PJM shares its conclusions annually with the VSCC and all the other State commissions in its area. These include all sorts of varying assumptions about how much renewables energy will actually come about, and where. The results are available, mostly without confidentiality restrictions, on PJM’s public website.

    In general, PJM’s transmission grid is pretty strong already, thanks to an accident of history. Back when the midwest region of the country invested heavily in cheap coal power, severral utilities built “mine-mouth” coal units which depended on lots of transmission to deliver their power to the cities east and west of Appalachia. Then much of that area became the “Rust Belt” and the power flowed predominantly east where coal-fired energy undercut the price of eastern oil units. This became known as “coal by wire.” The transmission investments made back then continue to serve the utilities and customers within PJM well — these days, to bring an increasing amount of wind power from the wind-farms in Indiana and Illinois eastward as well as cheap nuclear power from out that way.

    Other areas of the country are not so fortunate, as the abysmal Texas transmission grid’s inability to import enough power from the energy resources to the north of Texas demonstrates. But don’t let the wind and solar promoters oversell you on the need for more transmission in the PJM area. There are discrete bottlenecks to be sure, but there is no generalized regional shortage of transmission in the mid-Atlantic.

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      No, there’s no regional shortage of transmission capacity now. What’s solar’s market penetration at present? 3%? 10%? What happens when it gets beyond 30%?

      1. Thomas Hadwin Avatar
        Thomas Hadwin

        Jim,

        You said:

        “Tom, all the points you make are valid. But you leave out one reaaaallly important point. What is the comparative cost of installing utility-scale solar vs. community-scale solar vs. artisan-scale solar on individual rooftops?”

        This isn’t as important as you think. If a customer can install solar that provides output at a cost lower than what they pay now – the solar is a good investment. And costs other ratepayers nothing.

        After some number of years, the output of the solar array will be essentially free (except for any maintenance expenses). Electricity rates in Virginia will be going up dramatically over the next several decades if we stay on our present path. People will want a way to reduce their utility bills.

        Although, a utility-scale solar facility is cheaper per kWh produced, it does not typically include the cost of transmission in the the published cost/kWh of the unit. Also, all ratepayers must repay the utility about 230% of the cost of the solar facility on a net present value basis to repay the cost of the facility plus profits to the utility.

        As a Libertarian, would you rather allow individuals and businesses to make their own decisions about what the best source of energy is for them or do you want that dictated (at a higher cost) by a few organizations.

        The best solution is likely a blend of both, but we don’t have that choice to a great extent now.

        Community and commercial-scale installations are probably the lowest cost installations, all things considered.

        If we keep demand stable, we do not need a huge investment in transmission and other expenses as the amount of renewables increases.

        The distribution grid will need to accommodate a two-way flow of energy and information. But this can lead to better usage information and facilitate more efficient usage of energy and higher reliability.

        Lower cost storage and demand response can handle the quick swings in generation, giving time for conventional units to come on line to handle longer-term needs.

        There is much to do but the tools are available to produce a much more flexible, resilient and more reliable grid than what we have now.

  4. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    Jim, thank you for continuing to pay attention to electric energy issues. I agree with you, transmission is a long lead time item, and an increasingly necessary component as the percentage of renewables generation climbs.

    That said, I agree with Tom H. that new transmission can be oversold. Distributed generation (especially solar on home and commercial rooftops) would blunt the need for more backbone transmission in the 12-state PJM RTO region. It wouldn’t eliminate the need, of course, for a way to import and/or distribute the generation from the backup sources needed for when the sun doesn’t shine. Right now those are fossil fueled and nuclear resources, but I remain hopeful that we will see breakthroughs in cheap battery storage in my lifetime, and battery units can be distributed to match the distribution of solar generation.

    You say, “Does anyone even know what transmission-grid upgrades will be needed on Virginia soil and be subject to Virginia regulatory approvals?” I can assure you, PJM planners and planning committees of members look at that constantly, and PJM shares its conclusions annually with the VSCC and all the other State commissions in its area. These include all sorts of varying assumptions about how much renewables energy will actually come about, and where. The results are available, mostly without confidentiality restrictions, on PJM’s public website.

    In general, PJM’s transmission grid is pretty strong already, thanks to an accident of history. Back when the midwest region of the country invested heavily in cheap coal power, severral utilities built “mine-mouth” coal units which depended on lots of transmission to deliver their power to the cities east and west of Appalachia. Then much of that area became the “Rust Belt” and the power flowed predominantly east where coal-fired energy undercut the price of eastern oil units. This became known as “coal by wire.” The transmission investments made back then continue to serve the utilities and customers within PJM well — these days, to bring an increasing amount of wind power from the wind-farms in Indiana and Illinois eastward as well as cheap nuclear power from out that way.

    Other areas of the country are not so fortunate, as the abysmal Texas transmission grid’s inability to import enough power from the energy resources to the north of Texas demonstrates. But don’t let the wind and solar promoters oversell you on the need for more transmission in the PJM area. There are discrete bottlenecks to be sure, but there is no generalized regional shortage of transmission in the mid-Atlantic.

  5. Ben Slone Avatar
    Ben Slone

    Beta grid map at https://www.eia.gov/beta/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/daily_generation_mix/US48/US48

  6. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Great to hear from Hadwin and glad to know he is still reading. But a bone to pick. He says this is a problem “…only if we fail to stabilize or reduce our demand.” Everything the Climate Catastrophe Crowd is about right now is electric vehicles, electric machinery and appliances, no fossil fuels for any purpose, even eventually battery operated airplanes (yikes!). Okay, that means massive generation and a massively more complicated transmission and distribution net. They get away with this hypocrisy and contradiction too damn often. Lemme keep my gasoline car and maybe I can stay with my current….current.

  7. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Great to hear from Hadwin and glad to know he is still reading. But a bone to pick. He says this is a problem “…only if we fail to stabilize or reduce our demand.” Everything the Climate Catastrophe Crowd is about right now is electric vehicles, electric machinery and appliances, no fossil fuels for any purpose, even eventually battery operated airplanes (yikes!). Okay, that means massive generation and a massively more complicated transmission and distribution net. They get away with this hypocrisy and contradiction too damn often. Lemme keep my gasoline car and maybe I can stay with my current….current.

  8. Acbar Avatar
    Acbar

    There are two elements to PJM’s transmission planning. First is the proposed long range plan put forward by the people that actually own the wires, the large utilities, as members of the Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee, or TEAC. Second, the PJM staff, starting with TEAC’s annual recommendation, compiles PJM’s annual update of its Regional Transmission Enhancement Plan, or RTEP, which goes to the entire PJM membership for ratification and then to the FERC for approval.

    Here is a link to the current RTEP and to the latest iteration of the TEAC’s recommendations: https://www.pjm.com/planning Take a look at the TEAC “White Paper” linked at the top of this web page. That is a powerpoint presentation summarizing the TEAC’s detailed report and it serves as a good summary of projected transmission needs in PJM. One thing should immediately be apparent: the principle things driving transmission construction are (1) new generation tying into the grid, and (2) new customer loads in a few places where the local utility is having trouble handling it — for example, the rapid load growth to serve all those data centers in Loudoun and Prince William Counties. What’s NOT driving transmission construction currently is trans-regional transfers.

    You say, well, what about when renewables generation climbs much higher as a percentage of PJM total generation resources? Actually, the backup, fossil and nuclear fueled, generation is pretty well dispersed across PJM. It’s the dispersal of the renewables generation itself that could be problematic. The short answer is, PJM will not let any new generator connect to the grid unless the grid can handle it. If the grid can’t handle it, then either the transmission there has to be upgraded or the new generator has to find another location on the grid to connect to. If a state says there must be more solar and wind power built, remember that the transmission owners and the State Commissions of the PJM region all participate in coming up with the latest iteration of the RTEP, and all PJM members including those solar and wind power associations get to vote on it. This flushes out any disagreements over what everyone thinks the state of the PJM grid will be in, say, 15 or 20 years. If a disagreement cannot be resolved at PJM it would go to the FERC to decide — though I don’t believe that has ever been necessary regarding the RTEP.

    In short, what bottleneck, Jim?

    1. James A. Bacon Avatar
      James A. Bacon

      Acbar said: PJM will not let any new generator connect to the grid unless the grid can handle it.

      Correct. Now explain this quote from the study: “There were 834 GW of proposed generators waiting in interconnection queues nationwide at the end of 2019, almost 90 percent of which were renewable and storage resources.”

      1. Thomas Hadwin Avatar
        Thomas Hadwin

        The queues go several years into the future. Non-utility generators often wait until they have been accepted into the queue before initiating the utility-built substations and transmission lines necessary to connect their renewable facilities to the grid. They wait until things are certain before putting investors money at risk. Utilities know that ratepayers will pay them back.

        PJM makes certain that the grid can support a unit before adding it to the queue. The 90% is a number of units, not a percentage of capacity. GW’s of gas-fired generation is also sitting in the queues.

  9. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    Distributed generation requires no massive upgrades to the transmission system.

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