Finally some encouraging news from Norfolk’s scandal-plagued light rail project, The Tide. Philip A. Shucet, the former VDOT commissioner who was drafted to bring order to the mismanaged project, gave a project overview yesterday to the Commonwealth Transportation Board. The good news: The 7.4-mile rail line is in the final phases of testing and is scheduled to open August 19.
The bad news — and this was news that Shucet revealed only in response to a question — is that the project will continue to be a drain on taxpayers. Based on current ridership projects, fare box revenues will recover only 8% of operating costs. Not only will taxpayers never get a dime back from the $338 million they paid in up-front capital, Norfolk citizens will be on the hook for millions of dollars yearly… basically for ever.
According to traffic estimates, there will be 2,900 weekday passenger boardings initially, and the number should grow to 7,000 by 2030. Shucet dangled the possibility, based on the experience of some other light rail systems, that those estimates could be low. Presumably, rail ridership will relieve some congestion on Norfolk’s streets and will spur transit-oriented development around the rail stations, which could further reduce automobile dependency in the years and decades ahead. Whether the project will generate a positive Return on Investment, even including the social and environmental benefits, is an open question.
Shucet said the City of Norfolk’s final tab for the project, which has been subject to some $50 million in cost overruns, is $66 million. The feds are chipping in $201 million, and the state $71 million. None of the CTB members asked the logical follow-up question to Shucet’s revelation that fares would cover less than one-tenth of operating costs: What will operating losses amount to? How much will Norfolk taxpayers be asked to cover on an ongoing basis? Inquiring minds would like to know.