Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

The South Shall Rise Again

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

 The South is projected to have the fastest-growing population of any region in the U.S. through 2050, surpassing even the West, according to the demographics research group at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. The population of the Midwest and Northeast are expected to shrink slightly between 2030 and 2050.

However, the population boom in the South is not uniform — it is concentrated in Texas, Tennessee and the South Atlantic states — Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Other Southern states are projected to experience slow population growth. Virginia, one of three states nationally classified in this analysis as having population growth that “fluctuates over the decades,” is more of a question mark.

While many variables factor into a state’s rate of population growth or decline, it has long been true that people go where the jobs are. We may need to update that dictum as the Baby Boomer generation retires en masse. People also go where the retirement communities are.

— JAB

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16 responses to “The South Shall Rise Again”

  1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    A interesting map comparing 2016 to 2020. Probably influenced a bit by this migration that will likely show a similar trend this time around. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/347d395f92e811abc84642971ba651e52701563e3208b3d810b90bc6c1de9502.jpg

  2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
    f/k/a_tmtfairfax

    The Carolinas are becoming a prime choice of many Metro D.C. expats and those who are thinking of retirement years somewhere else.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      My (now passed) Father-in-law picked NC as well as the middle of NC (between mountains and beaches) – a place called West End in the sandhills a short distance from Pinehurst.

      The polar opposite of NoVa or NC's Triangle or Charlotte but
      I'd never live in a gated community like he did. The HOA was just
      oppressive but it fit the people who chose to live there.

    2. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      You are exactly right, TMT. At the higher end, the math goes something like this … a NoVa couple buys a house for $400,000 in 1990, raises their 3 children until they go off to college, retire, and realize their house is now worth $1.8m. Unless their kids stay in NoVa (increasingly a rarity), they don't want the congestion, cost, or taxes required to remain in NoVa. The house is paid off, so the entire $1.8m is converted to cash on sale. They move to NC or SC, buy a beautiful house for $800,000 and pocket $1m.

      My big question is why "other than NoVa" in Virginia isn't as good an idea as NC or SC for these relatively young retirees?

      What are these 60 – 70 year old retirees looking for? Affordability seems obvious, but almost anywhere outside of NoVa is more affordable than NoVa. Is it health care, transportation, amenities like golf courses?

      I don't know how old you are but I know you moved from NoVa to Wake County, NC. What was it about Wake County that caught your eye?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        A LOT of them want to be NEAR their kids that work in NoVa. Quess where that is?

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/482769521398fa57bd01aba9acb609bce1ef82993951cfe9bfa3881a49190b7f.png

  3. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    "We may need to update that dictum as the Baby Boomer generation retires en masse. People also go where the retirement communities are."

    Excellent observation.

    Is Virginia's vaunted economic development program aware of this trend?

    Retirees pay taxes, commit very few crimes, have no school aged children, and don't require major highways to commute to and from work.

    Virginia's economic development efforts seem focused on "build ready" pad sites, data centers, etc.

    Why not retirement communities in bucolic places like Nelson County or small cities like Roanoke?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      As said before, the state is VERY tax friendly to military retirees.

      Are you familiar with the existing retirement communities in Virginia? There are several.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d83fd6c51133232cacde864d670b4e41d727a11f2fa2002ce3d407163570a0bd.png

    3. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      Retirees also vote against school bonds, are generally NIMBY, and actually pay little in taxes.

    4. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      While all of the qualities of retirees you listed are true-ish, crime, children, traffic, will still follow them in the form of all the younger generations required to provide services to the retirees.

      No matter where you go, there you are.

      Bedford seems a “retirement area”. Apparently a lot of medical facilities close by, Smith Mtn lake, restaurants, vineyards, and microbreweries.

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    and I’m looking north; give up the salt life for a deep mountain lake.

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhu6l6SLJWc
      One of my all time favorite Neil Young songs.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Is it just me, or is that “Blue Bayou” with different words? Never did warm to Neil Young, even with CSN.

  5. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    So people are going to move into areas of increasing temperatures and more severe weather. Everyone should brace for higher homeowners and auto insurance rates.

    Just like Virginia is growing without increasing the electric supply, Arizona is growing with a shrinking water supply and increased summer temperatures.

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Noticing the places with extreme heat to the point, it's not enjoyable to be outside for most activities and wondering if that will affect people's choices.

    Noticing places with wildfires, tornadoes and hurricanes and wondering if that influences some folks.

    If we truly are going to see more and more heat, fires, floods… will people make decisions to avoid them if they can?

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Re: extreme heat … go see Naples, FL. It's hotter than Hades in the summer but growing like a weed. Of course, the weather is nearly perfect for 7 – 9 months a year.

      Wildfires and tornadoes are relatively rare and not a major consideration, IMO.

      Hurricanes are another matter altogether. Not only do you face the real risk of having your home and community wiped out, having to evacuate on short notice for a week or two every other year seems like a gigantic hassle.

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