For a Californian, Joel Kotkin sure sounds like a Southern triumphalist. One hundred and fifty years after its defeats at Vicksburg and Gettysburg, he writes in “As the North Rests on Its Laurels, the South Is Rising Fast,” the region is on the move. While Northerners stereotype the South as the home of the ignorant, the prejudiced, the obese and the under-educated, the region is whupping the North like Lee whupped Pope at Manassas when it comes to job growth, population growth, the climb up the value-creation chain and the increase in number of educated workers.
When it comes to absolute levels of wealth, Northern regions still prevail. But the North is playing defense, Kotkin argues and Southern regions are coming on strong. While some observers predict that the South will lose the distinctive regional identity that has allowed it to prosper, Kotkin predicts that “it’s unlikely … that the South will emulate the North’s social model of an ever-expanding welfare state and ever more stringent ‘green’ restrictions on business — which hardly constitutes a strong recipe for success for a developing economy.”
The South’s population nearly equals that of the Northeast and Midwest combined. Given continued strength in job creation, in-migration and birth rates, the South will continue to grow in power and influence.
Bluntly put, if the South can finally shake off the worst parts of its cultural baggage, the region’s eventual ascendancy over the North seems more than likely. High-tech entrepreneurs, movie-makers, and bankers appreciate lower taxes and more sensible regulation, just like manufacturers and energy companies. And people generally prefer affordable homes and family-friendly cities. Throwing in a little Southern hospitality, friendliness, and courtesy can’t hurt either.
I’ve just finished reading Mario Polese’s book, “The Wealth and Poverty of Regions: Why Cities Matter,” who argues that the relative wealth of regions tends to change very slowly over time. Dominant cities tend to remain dominant not just for decades but centuries. That trend, Polese suggests, is becoming all the more pronounced in the knowledge age, in which there are strong “agglomeration economies” associated with size. All other things being equal, larger cities enjoy higher output per worker, higher wages, higher profits and higher incomes than smaller cities. Regions develop industry clusters that, once established, are difficult to dislodge. That economic inertia, which long favored the North, makes the South’s rise all the more remarkable.
— JAB
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