The Long Odds in Playing Catch-Up

by James A. Bacon

Thanks to the Standards of Learning exams, Virginians have been able to measure the calamitous effects that the shutdown of in-person instruction had on student learning in the 2020-21 school year. From this year’s SOL exams, we will find out if students have made up for lost ground — or have fallen further behind grade level — while back in school this year.

Over and above teaching students what they need to learn for the current school year, the great challenge for schools and teachers has been helping them catch up on what they had failed to learn during the COVID-19 shutdowns. You see, almost everyone got a special COVID-19 dispensation and was allowed to move up to the next grade.

The Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) maintains two databases that allow us to gauge the magnitude of the challenge. One data set allows us to compute the percentage of students who fail to pass their exams. In numerous school districts, the percentage who failed their English reading exam, for example, exceeded half the student body. Once upon a time, students who failed to achieve basic mastery of core subjects were held back. A second VDOE data set tracks that number. In not one school district did the percentage exceed 3% in 2020-21.

Thus, in the Danville public schools, 56.6% of students failed their English SOLs (and 70% failed their math SOLs), but only 1.2% of students were held back. Assuming the number of held-back students was distributed randomly across all grades, we can conclude that more than half of all Danville students were promoted to the next grade without having mastered core subject matter.

Statewide, 31% of students failed their English reading SOLs in 2020-21. But there was enormous variability between school districts and even more between schools. The table atop this post shows the 10 schools with the highest percentages of kids playing catch up. The failing kids tend to be concentrated in high-poverty schools.

High-poverty schools in Virginia already have the odds stacked against them. Disciplinary issues are more rampant, and teachers spend more time maintaining order in the classroom. These schools also are more likely to be short-staffed, and teachers are more likely to double up on classes. And because substitute teachers are harder to find, doubled-up teachers often find themselves filling in classes for subjects in which they have no background. Very little teaching occurs.

When teachers in high-poverty schools have heavier teaching loads, and half or more of their students have been socially promoted, and kids are glued to their cellphones during class, and disproportionate attention is diverted to the trouble-makers whom the administration refuses to suspend, what are the odds that kids will make up lost ground? I’m not a teacher, but I’d say the odds are pretty slim.

Hopefully, we will see learning recovery in more affluent school districts less afflicted by teacher shortages, disorderly kids, and high percentages of students requiring remedial work. But it will take a super-human effort to avoid even greater learning loss in low-income schools. If Danville, Petersburg and Richmond can regain lost ground, let me applaud them in advance because the odds against them — sometimes due to outside factors, sometimes to policies they inflict upon themselves — are horrendous.


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28 responses to “The Long Odds in Playing Catch-Up”

  1. James McCarthy Avatar
    James McCarthy

    We will likely never be able to measure the health benefits or mortality rates from the shutdown of in-person instruction. Those whose health and lives were preserved will be part of continuing academic ratings.

      1. James McCarthy Avatar
        James McCarthy

        What do the events in NYC have to do with discussion of VA school performance? Try to stay on track. The DJI is down a few points. There, I said it.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    re: ” The failing kids tend to be concentrated in high-poverty schools.”

    Yes, and true even within districts that also have high performing schools – like Henrico, Chesterfield, Fairfax, Loudoun, etc.

    I can see in districts where most of the kids are economically disadvantaged like Richmond that the problem is indeed district-wide but how do we explain districts like Henrico where there are high performing schools and terrible low performing schools – and Henrico has the finances and leadership to produce high performing schools. Why can’t they get their low performing schools improved?

  3. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Those numbers make it look so hopeless. The end of the school year is supposed to be a celebration. 3 years now it has been more like a funeral.

  4. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    Clearly there is a difference between “failing” an SOL and failing a course. I’m sure some journalist somewhere has looked at that concept…

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      Who needs a journalist? Kids fail SOLs and yet pass courses. Nothing to see here, just keep ’em matriculating and bring on the next class.

      Readin’? Kids don’t need no steenkin’ readin’.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Unless failing the SOL was their goal… and yes, kids might not like the SOLs as much as some adults.

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Actually, SOLs are graded on a scale of 0-600, a passing score is 400 and above. In my day, an F was earned for below 50% which would correlate to below 300 on the SOL scale… so yep, there is indeed a difference.

        1. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          Dunno where you went to school, but 50% was WAY below passing where I went. Does that explain why you only achieved half a troll status?

        2. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          OTOH, while there was no failing grade on the SATs, in my day the top score was 800 and you got 200 for writing your name even if 0 was a minimum.

        3. Matt Hurt Avatar
          Matt Hurt

          That’s not how one should look at this. A passing grade is either a 60% or a 70% depending on which grade scale the division uses. Passing on the SOL test is 400. When those two things don’t line up in a classroom, a school, or a division, we tend to see worse results. For example, in the divisions I have studied, the lowest performing schools and divisions tend to have far more students who earn A’s and B’s for the final grade to fail their SOL tests. In the most successful schools and divisions, they have hardly any. This reflects a gap in expectations which is the main culprit in the educator controlled factors of student achievement.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            re: ” For example, in the divisions I have studied, the lowest performing schools and divisions tend to have far more students who earn A’s and B’s for the final grade to fail their SOL tests. In the most successful schools and divisions, they have hardly any. This reflects a gap in expectations which is the main culprit in the educator controlled factors of student achievement.”

            That’s an astounding statement and I DO believe it but I’m not sure how many others might realize it and if they did what they might think about it.

            What I’d further wonder is if this happens within a school district that has both high performing and low performing schools – like Henrico or Chesterfield.

            Does this mean that there is no district-wide standard for grading and it is done on a per school basis such that the low performing schools actually have as many or more “A”s than higher performing schools – in the same district?

          2. Matt Hurt Avatar
            Matt Hurt

            As far as I am aware, no one has been able to develop an algorithm to effectively standardized grading to the point I mentioned, without implementing a canned curriculum. As it turns out, teachers are human beings and as such are not standardized, and they have different expectations. If all teachers are required to use the same assignments and assessments, you could get pretty close. However, that brings in a whole other ball of wax, and may cause more problems than it solves.

            The best way to go about this is to have teachers, schools, and divisions analyze the distributions of their grades and SOL outcomes. Not to say that the objective is to have them perfectly align, as students are not standardized either. However, if you have a bunch of kids who “earn” A’s and B’s fail their SOL tests, that needs to be addressed.

        4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          When I was in school, below 75 was failing. I think that was still the case when my daughter was in high school in the 1980s.

          Mr. Whitehead can inform us of the recent criteria.

          1. WayneS Avatar

            When I was in school, below 75 was failing.

            Same here, and I graduated HS in 1982.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yep. and took a 95 to get an A.

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    The problem one cannot address is student enthusiasm for taking the test. The more broken by poverty, perceived injustice, and lack of opportunity, the more likely a “does not affect me directly” test will receive the attention of the student.

    And, while a lot of white people recite the old chestnut, “we were poor, but we didn’t know we were poor,” this is not necessarily the experience of those, even 10-year olds, oppressed for 300 years.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      That’s a good point. From what I hear from my teacher friends, the SOLs are stressful for both teachers and those taking the tests but some kids may well not take them seriously.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Back in 1968, )I think that was the room number) we were taking a standardized test at the end of the year, and with a “you may leave when finished” exit strategy. The kid next to me marked down each row of the answer sheet and left.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Most young kids… can be convinced to do them, “do your best” but by the time 8th grade rolls around, especially for the kids who have not done particularly well, the motivation is not there.

          I wonder what Matt and Kathleen would say… about older kids who take such tests.

    2. Matt Hurt Avatar
      Matt Hurt

      For high school students there is a motivating factor of earning verified credits the kid needs to have in order to graduate. For all kids, the teacher provides additional motivation, primarily via the relationship the teacher has developed with the kid.

      When we look at data from across the state, surely we have kids who are “more broken by poverty, perceived injustice, and lack of opportunity” in most places. However, some of those kids do better in some parts of the state and less better in other parts of the state. The difference is the degree to which the educators believe that their kids can succeed (read that as implicit bias), and the degree to which they believe that it is their job to make that happen (educator sense of efficacy).

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        In a school that is in a low income neighborhood and most students are economically disadvantaged – and those schools have terrible SOL passing rates – I wonder if there is the same school culture as there might be at a higher performing school.

        Your insights are very relevant and illuminating and IMHO are exceptionally useful in these discussions.

        I’ve said before and will say again – I do not understand how schools in the same district can have differing grading standards – that seem to shake out between higher performing schools and lower performing schools.

        Why not mandate a district-wide standard?

        1. Matt Hurt Avatar
          Matt Hurt

          Please see my reply to your previous question.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Okay. Thanks. I guess I just don’t understand how schools within the same district can be so different in terms of performance.

            Yes, it is said that it depends on “good” teachers almost as if it’s a random thing per school.. luck of the draw type stuff.

            But Region VII seems to have adopted more of a standardization approach where what “works” is shared across schools so that more schools perform better than if just left to random effects of “good” teachers at some schools that explain their success and less good teachers randomly at other schools that explain their lack of success.

            Is what I’m saying here making any sense to you?

          2. Matt Hurt Avatar
            Matt Hurt

            It seems to me that teacher quality is pretty uniform from school to school. The differentiating factor is the leadership, relationships, what matters most, and the culture. Each school and division has a stated mission as well as a de facto mission. When those two things don’t align, don’t expect the most positive results.

            Part of the culture is the belief system. If folks in the school don’t believe their kids can succeed, they won’t. If folks in the school don’t believe it is their job to make it happen, they won’t. The leader in the school/division is the one responsible for ensuring a culture conducive to student achievement.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Or, the degree to which courses are taught to the test. Yep, if credits are involved that’ll motivate ’em… well those that care. You’ve lost the bottom no matter what you do. No child left behind, HA!

        Would be better that a random sampling take the SOL or something equivalent. No guarantee that anyone from an arbitrary class is selected, so less motivation to “teach the test”. Teach the curriculum, dammiit.

        And testing agencies are sneaky. They can include questions that go to the child’s attitude without them ever knowing it. Something like, “If I do well on this test, my teacher said…”
        A) I’ll get $50,
        B) There will be no homework for the rest of the year
        C) They won’t beat me

        1. Matt Hurt Avatar
          Matt Hurt

          Please take a peek at Virginia’s Curriculum Frameworks in English and Mathematics. These the documents which expand upon the Standards of Learning which inform teachers what kids need to be able to know, do, and understand. These documents are also what are used to align the SOL test. If there’s any SKILL in there that you don’t think a kid should master, please let me know so we can have a discussion about the evils of “teaching to the test”. There is really no wrote memorization that is required, and the Reading and Math SOL tests are truly skill based. Teachers teach the SKILL to the kid, and then the kid demonstrates that transferable SKILL on the SOL test. Now please be aware that I am not saying that the reading and math SOL tests are perfect, but they’re not bad.

          Now the History (and the Science to a lesser degree) SOL tests are nothing more than glorified trivial pursuit. Students simply have to regurgitate discrete facts. To prepare students for these tests, most teachers have found the old “drill and kill” method to be successful. If we can’t provide a better test than that, we need to just quit.

          The new Science SOL tests that are to be administered for the first time in the spring of 2023 are supposed to be more practical in nature. Time will tell.

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