The High Stakes in Virginia’s Very Close Nov. 7 Election

from Liberty Unyielding

Virginia is holding a very close election. The last day to vote is on Tuesday, November 7. If you live in Virginia, you can also vote early, at specified locations, on Monday through Friday, from September 22 to November 3, or on Saturday, October 28 or November 4.

Voters are almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. A recent Washington Post poll shows that 47% of likely voters prefer the Democrats, while 45% of likely voters prefer the Republicans.

Republicans and Democrats are tied on the generic ballot, according to recent polls for Cygnal and Yahoo News.

A Founder’s Insight poll shows 45% of Virginia voters plan to vote for the Democrats, and 44% plan to vote for Republicans. A poll by Coefficient shows 41% Virginians plan to vote for the Democrats, while 40% plan to vote for the Republicans.

Control of Virginia’s legislature could be decided by a single vote, like yours if you live in Virginia. In 2017, the pivotal legislative race in Virginia was decided by a coin toss to break a tie, after two candidates got the same number of votes in Virginia’s 94th district. The Republican candidate won that coin toss. His win in that race gave Republicans control of the House of Delegates by a narrow 51-to-49 margin.

The election results may determine whether Virginia cuts taxes or instead raises government spending at a rapid clip. Virginia has a Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, but the legislature is split between a Democratic-controlled state Senate and a Republican-controlled House of Delegates. The Democratic-controlled Senate has blocked most of the governor’s proposed tax cuts, but it did grudgingly agree to repeal most of the state sales tax on groceries, reducing it from 2.5% to 1%.  Governor Youngkin and Republicans would like to fully eliminatethe grocery tax, while Democrats want to keep the tax so they can spend more taxpayer money.

Under the Republican governor’s Democratic predecessor, Ralph Northam, government spending rose rapidly in Virginia, and Northam signed into law various tax increases and increased fees. Progressive energy legislation signed by Northam is expected to increase residents’ utility bills a lot in the years to come. Republicans would like to repeal or modify that legislation, in order to lower electric bills.

Republicans are seeking torepeal a law” passed by Democrats in 2021 that will “ban the sale of new gas-powered cars” by 2035 by “tying Virginia to California vehicle emissions standards.” Banning gasoline-powered cars could price cars out of reach for many Virginians, because electric cars typically cost far more than gas-powered cars. As the New York Times notes, “electric cars” are “too costly for many, even with” government subsidies. As the Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations observes, “The electric vehicles on the market are well beyond the means of most consumers and get more expensive all the time.” For example, a Cadillac Lyriq starts at around $62,000, despite being touted as a “bargain” compared to some other electric cars.

The Republican-controlled House of Delegates voted to repeal the ban on future sales of gas-powered cars this year, but the Democratic-controlled Senate kept the ban in place, with all Democrats on a key committee voting to keep the ban.

Electric cars are not better for the environment for all drivers, because making their battery is bad for the environment. For an infrequent driver who drives a car less than 75,000 miles over its lifespan, an electric vehicle may result in more greenhouse gas emissions and pollution over its lifecycle than a gasoline-powered vehicle. As the London Daily Mail points out, electric vehicles are “not green machines: The environmental benefit of EVs may never be felt as their production creates up to 70% more emissions than [gas-powered] equivalents….Electric cars need to be used for tens of thousands of miles before they offset the higher releases, with VW’s e-Golf becoming more environmentally friendly only after 77,000 miles, according to the manufacturer’s own figures.” The mileage may have to be even higher than that, if they are driven frequently in cold weather. Cold weather can cut electric car range by over 40%, resulting in a given mile of driving consuming far more energy from the grid. Electric vehicles’ batteries are often charged using energy generated by fossil fuels.

One Liberty Unyielding  blogger has a 2007 Hyundai that he drives only to the grocery store most months. It has only about 30,000 miles on it, most of the way through its lifespan. It would make no sense for him to buy an electric car, which would result in more pollution just to produce its battery than the gasoline-powered Hyundai emits in years.

Mining the lithium needed for electric car batteries can be bad for the environment. Lithium mining emits large amounts of greenhouse gases. The Guardian, a progressive newspaper, says that

The US’s transition to electric vehicles could require three times as much lithium as is currently produced for the entire global market, causing needless water shortages, Indigenous land grabs, and ecosystem destruction inside and outside its borders, new research finds….If Americans continue to depend on cars at the current rate, by 2050 the US alone would need triple the amount of lithium currently produced for the entire global market, which would have dire consequences for water and food supplies, biodiversity, and Indigenous rights.

If everyone switches to electric cars, that could cause some bridges to collapse, because electric cars weigh so much more than gas-powered cars. As the London Telegraph notes, the “sheer weight of electric vehicles could sink our bridges,” because electric vehicles “are 33 per cent heavier than petrol vehicles.” One study found that electric vehicles place twice as much stress on roads as gas-powered vehicles, likely producing more potholes.

So if everyone drives an electric vehicle, state and local governments may need to spend large amounts of taxpayer money strengthening bridges and repairing roads. That could require tax increases.

Republished with permission from Liberty Unyielding. 


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33 responses to “The High Stakes in Virginia’s Very Close Nov. 7 Election”

  1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “The election results may determine whether Virginia cuts taxes or instead raises government spending at a rapid clip”

    Really? If Dems take both legislative bodies, Youngkin will sign off on raising “government spending at a rapid clip”?

    That is quite a new thing to hear…

  2. LarrytheG Avatar

    What is Virginia spending too much money on?

    I think I read somewhere that the $7500 EV tax credit is proposed to be applied at the time of purchase not later at tax time AND it only applies to cars that cost $25K or less.

    might be interesting…. how many would buy an EV that was less than 20K out of pocket?

    1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      I believe EV credit was changed by Biden last week or so to be paid at purchase, believe we are waiting for final rule how that works. But your $25k thing is not correct, price limits were set a while back, much higher than that. But yes, with the enormous tax credits for EV’s there are some deals out there, especially some blue states (not Va.) heap on add’l tax credits. Virginia we have the car tax which is more like a huge anti-new-car tax penalty.

    2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      I believe EV credit was changed by Biden last week or so to be paid at purchase, believe we are waiting for final rule how that works. But your $25k thing is not correct, price limits were set a while back, much higher than that. But yes, with the enormous tax credits for EV’s there are some deals out there, especially some blue states (not Va.) heap on add’l tax credits. Virginia we have the car tax which is more like a huge anti-new-car tax penalty.

  3. Fred Woerhle Avatar
    Fred Woerhle

    Switching to electric vehicles would also put a strain on the electric grid, according to CNBC and the Wall Street Journal:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/01/why-the-ev-boom-could-put-a-major-strain-on-our-power-grid.html
    The electric grid is already aging and prone to blackouts in parts of the country. The large amount of additional power needed to charge electric vehicles might be more than the grid can handle.

      1. Fred Woerhle Avatar
        Fred Woerhle

        That may not be true of America, as opposed to the United Kingdom, whose energy needs are far lower and falling.

        The article you cite discusses the situation in the United Kingdom, where the economy shrank a lot more in 2020 than in the U.S., reducing energy use there, and people are willing to sacrifice to achieve energy efficiency.

        But is it true of the U.S., where the economy is growing, and NEPA makes it harder to build transmission lines to carry the needed energy? England doesn’t have NEPA as an impediment.

        It looks like the U.S. already faces potential blackouts due to closures of power plants (including nuclear power plants, which produce no greenhouse gas emissions, and thus should have been kept operating):

        https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/summer-blackouts-could-hit-these-us-states-regulators-warn/

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          don’t you think many EV owners will charge their vehicles at night when the grid has much
          lower demand?

          Dominion in Va thinks they can do it but it might take more gas plants.

          EVs won’t suddenly become the primary car on roads. It will take years, perhaps decades.

          In the end, internal combustion vehicles are going to be like 60’s hot rods.. most folks will
          have them for their “city/suburban” cars especially folks that are two-car families. One will
          be an EV.

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          “It looks like the U.S. already faces potential blackouts due to closures of power plants (including nuclear power plants, which produce no greenhouse gas emissions, and thus should have been kept operating)”

          The energy blackouts of late were largely due to the failure of fossil fuel generation not renewables.

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      The problem with the grid is large-scale users like data centers…

      “PJM’s long-term load forecast predicts estimated load growth of 0.8% per year for summer peaks, 1% for winter peaks and 1.4% for net energy over a 10-year planning horizon starting in 2023.

      Rising energy demand by data centers, mostly in Virginia and Maryland, is a chief driver of this increased energy use.”

      https://insidelines.pjm.com/2023-long-term-load-forecast-predicts-growth-fueled-by-data-centers/#:~:text=PJM's%20long%2Dterm%20load%20forecast,of%20this%20increased%20energy%20use.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        an argument can be made that data centers SAVE energy!

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          I haven’t seen a study on that but given that the DMV energy use is increasing dramatically over baseline growth expectations due to these large-scale users, it doesn’t appear to be true.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            DNV energy use?

            think about simple things like getting GPS directions… and you get the most efficient route…

            Or a zoom meeting with 20 people who are NOT driving to a central place…

            The internet is all about saving time and energy and boosting productivity..

            and that is based on computing power…

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Not saying there aren’t energy savings because of data centers but there does not appear to be a NET energy saving because of data centers. In fact, the opposite appears to be true… but open to any study examining that aspect of the issue.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar

            I’ll work on it.

          4. killerhertz Avatar
            killerhertz

            That’s because of the cloud business model that DCs support – largely Software as a Service (SaaS) and Platform as a Service (PaaS). Back in the day software was installed and run locally with one time license fees. Now you have to pay subscriptions monthly or annually. Developers can fix their sloppy bugs quicker and they can charge the consumer more. You’ll own nothing and be happy…

            Of course, all this is possible with the tax-payer subsidized infrastructure available by DCs…

          5. LarrytheG Avatar

            Many companies, especially smaller ones and new ones will buy packaged computing services like AWS so instead of having servers on-site, they are remote and centralized for many.

            They are subsidized because some localities see them as net tax revenue as opposed to building houses or apts on the same parcel.

            The reality is that if someone uses a laptop or tablet or phone, they are being supported by a data center.

            Harder to prove so far is that they actually save energy by reduce physical trips and increase productivity – which means less labor/fuel/other resource use to produce something.

            It makes little sense in my mind to think that data centers use MORE power for no good reason and people are willing to pay for it to boot!

          6. killerhertz Avatar
            killerhertz

            Yes because it saves the developers money, not the consumer. That’s my point.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar

            developer money also for homes and apartments?

          8. killerhertz Avatar
            killerhertz

            No i mean the developers that make applications that use the cloud. Basically big corporations benefit at the expense of the consumer. There’s nothing ground breaking about cloud computing. It’s just economies of scale.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar

            I would think economies of scale would benefit consumers… no?

          10. killerhertz Avatar
            killerhertz

            Is Microsoft Word cheaper than it used to be? No.

          11. LarrytheG Avatar

            how about chromebooks?

          12. killerhertz Avatar
            killerhertz

            What do they have to do with cloud computing? lol

          13. LarrytheG Avatar

            everything? 😉

  4. VaPragamtist Avatar
    VaPragamtist

    “One Liberty Unyielding blogger has a 2007 Hyundai that he drives only to the grocery store most months. It has only about 30,000 miles on it, most of the way through its lifespan”

    Huh?

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      A 2007 Hyundai is 16 years old. Perhaps they aren’t expected to last much longer than that?

  5. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I don’t know who is behind Liberty Unyielding , but whoever it is needs to do better analysis and research. The polls comparing how many Democrat and how many Republicans plan to vote and for whom are fairly meaningless. There are numerous uncontested districts, such as mine. What matters is who will be voting in the heavily contested districts.

    The authors make this astounding statement:

    ‘The Democratic-controlled Senate has blocked most of the governor’s proposed tax cuts, but it did grudgingly agree to repeal most of the state sales tax on groceries, reducing it from 2.5% to 1%. Governor Youngkin and Republicans would like to fully eliminatethe grocery tax, while Democrats want to keep the tax so they can spend more taxpayer money.”

    Comments:
    1. Cutting the state’s 2.5 percent sales tax on groceries was in the biennial budget that Governor Northam proposed. Therefore, the Democrats’ support of this idea was hardly “grudging”.
    2. The additional 1 percent is the localities’ share. Therefore, it is not Democrats in the state legislature that are spending that revenue, it is local governments, many of which are controlled by Republicans.
    3. Governor Youngkin did not include the repeal of the remaining one percent in his 2023 budget proposal, nor has he advocated it for 2024. The link in the article purporting to document this claim is two years old.

    Most of the article is obviously devoted to opposition to electric vehicles. I agree that Virginia should not tie its policy on EV to California’s. In addition, many of the objections to EVs have some merit. However, opposition to EVs at this point is like spitting in the wind. The automakers are putting big money into transitioning to EVs. Even if Virginia does emulate California and ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles after 2035, one can always go to North Carolina to buy one if does not want to change to an EV. Heck, you could probably order a new gas-powered car online and have it delivered. My son-in-law did that with a used car several years ago.

    1. …one can always go to North Carolina to buy one if does not want to change to an EV.

      Not if Virginia refuses to allow owners to register new gasoline powered vehicles, which is likely if they are going to ban the sale of such vehicles

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        big “IF”… it’s a goal rather than a drop-dead date… subject to future actions of a GA , even a Dem one!

        It’s just same-old, same-old boogeyman politics.

        Even if that was the express intent… the way they’d implement it is with higher registration fees – like with gas guzzlers , Cadillac taxes and such… notice the gas guzzler tax was instituted in 1978!

        https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gasguzzlertax.asp#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways,not%20subject%20to%20the%20tax.

        more relevant to Virginia:

        https://www.dmv.virginia.gov/vehicles/taxes-fees/highway-use#:~:text=You%20pay%20the%20HUF%20if,pay%20an%20annual%20%2425%20HUF

  6. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    I predict Va. Repubs lose due women objecting to abortion restrictions.

    We need EV mandate like a hole-in-the-head but Dems have worked themselves up into an anti-fossil-fuel frenzy. For those with memories, California was given control over Feds on auto-emissions to allow Ca. to solve its unique smog issue (with the mountains holding in the stale air)….not to mandate EV’s just for political reasons of hatred of fossil fuels. So the intellectual basis, true need for EV in Ca. no longer exists, and certainly has no merit for Virginia.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      People don’t believe the conservative hype about EVs but they DO believe conservatives own words about abortion…

      The GOP ads in the Fburg area are pathetic IMO… all about law & order… and not much else ….

      Conservatives NEED to present an optimistic view of what they will do moving into the future.

      They can’t keep looking back and playing boogeyman and grievance politics… AND they NEED to show that they are willing to compromise – even among their own party!

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