The Fix Was In: Use and Abuse of Survey Data

by James A. Bacon

The Barnes & Thornburg final report into racism at the Virginia Military Institute has done its job of generating loads of negative headlines about the military academy. “Run by White men, for White men,” seems to be the most quotable quote. Predictably, there is no evidence that a single reporter read past the executive summary, which, as I explained yesterday, was a politicized, agenda-driven distillation of the extensive research conducted by investigators who, though not without their biases, painted a complex and nuanced picture of race relations.

The B&T summary conclusion that “racial and gender disparities exist” is based entirely upon the perceptions of a handful of Black VMI cadets. The report cites no documentary evidence of racism on the part of the VMI administration. The problem is alleged to be rooted in “the culture.” Accordingly, the perception of Black cadets, as gleaned in personal interviews and a lengthy anonymous survey, form the basis of B&T’s conclusions.

Here’s what the B&T summary doesn’t tell you: Of the 540 survey responses from cadets, only twelve came from African Americans. (That fact appears only in the appendix.) For most questions, the African-American responses split down the middle — six agreed (strongly or somewhat) with statements supportive of the racism allegations while six disagreed (strongly or somewhat).

Thus, when the B&T executive summary makes statements like this — “according to survey results of current cadets, half of African American cadets strongly or somewhat agree that there is a culture of racial intolerance at VMI” — the finding was based on the responses of six cadets who felt that way — six of 102 African American cadets (2021 enrollment).

Similarly, of the 73 cadets interviewed by investigators, only 17 were African American.

The perceptions of White cadets, alumni, faculty and staff differed markedly from those of their Black counterparts, as did the perceptions of Hispanics and Asians (although the differences were less pronounced). The executive summary dismisses their views as of no consequence. Indeed, the perceptions of Whites are cited as evidence of their failure to recognize the existence of pervasive racism. (The summary does not opine on the similar failure of Hispanics and Asians to recognize racism.) Remarkably, the executive summary gives no credence to the views of the roughly half of African American respondents who disagree with the proposition of racial intolerance.

No consideration is given in the executive summary to the possibility that Black cadets’ perceptions of racism in an era of Black Lives Matter were influenced by their political leanings (a survey question that was asked). The report presents zero evidence that racial problems such as the “not uncommon” use of racial pejoratives is any more common at VMI than any other higher-ed institution. Perhaps most egregiously, the executive summary never explores the possibility that the adversity-driven Rat Line might tear down racial differences and create fraternal bonds between individuals of different races in a way that no other Virginia higher-ed institution replicates.

Bacon’s Rebellion has argued that the conclusions of investigation were foreordained. Governor Ralph Northam prejudged the outcome when he wrote in a to VMI’s Board of Visitors of “a clear and appalling culture of ongoing racism.” The Governor’s Office, including its chief diversity officer, was intimately involved in drafting the Request for Proposal outlining the goals and objectives of the investigation, and members of the Governor’s Office dominated the process by which the winning bidder, Barnes & Thornburg, was selected. The law firm had highlighted its commitment to combating racial injustice on its website and in its appeals to the Northam administration.

Perhaps most damning is the fact that the executive summary systematically excluded reference to questions that yielded answers less supportive of the predetermined findings.

  • When asked if VMI cadets socialize and “hang out” in racially integrated groups, 58% of African American cadets agreed and only 34% disagreed.
  • When asked if VMI faculty care about getting the views and perspectives of all types of cadets, 75% of African American cadets and only 16% disagreed.
  • When asked if “I feel part of the community at VMI,” 67% of Black cadets agreed and 33% disagreed.
  • When asked to agree or disagree with the proposition that news media reports of racially intolerant conduct at VMI do NOT accurately reflect the culture, 58% of African American cadets agreed and 42% disagreed.
  • When asked if VMI’s method of addressing reports of racially intolerant behavior is appropriate, 50% of African American cadets agreed and 34% disagreed.

But the bias in the executive summary runs deeper than its use and abuse of survey data. I will address other issues in future posts.


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Comments

57 responses to “The Fix Was In: Use and Abuse of Survey Data”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    re: ” Here’s what the B&T summary doesn’t tell you: Of the 540 survey responses from cadets, only twelve came from African Americans. ”

    If true, it puts a very different light on the report and you can count me among the critics.

  2. tmtfairfax Avatar
    tmtfairfax

    12 people out of 540 really doesn’t give much insight, most especially since their views seems to split down the middle. 17 of 73 provides a bit more confidence. This is not to argue that any specific individual’s views aren’t important, but it’s hard to draw generalized conclusions from the questionnaires.

    I know that MWCOG over-samples minority groups for their surveys because of lower voluntary participation rates in order to match the demographics of the National Capital Region. For accuracy, I’d take MWCOG over the B&T group.

    1. M. Purdy Avatar
      M. Purdy

      There are also 30 black alums who responded to the survey.

  3. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    The other issue that is missed is temporal. I’m sure that every new arrival at VMI slips into a level of shock at what it REALLY means to be the most junior members of the ratline. It would certainly seem easy to slip into the mentality of “they’re all picking on me” as you go through first year indoctrination, hazing, etc. I’m sure it’s equally easy to decide that you are being picked on for something in your background. How many relatively wealthy first year students from Northern Virginia come to believe they are being picked on because they are relatively wealthy? How many overweight first year students come to believe they are being picked on for being overweight?

    Is it possible that everybody is being picked on because that’s part of the process of breaking down individuals and forming team members?

    “Sir, yes sir, the rat believes that is possible.”

    The question would be how attitudes change as the student progresses. Do fourth year Black students (seniors?) fell like they have faced prejudice at he same rate as first year Black students (freshmen?).

    1. Interesting analysis. I would agree with you. Unfortunately, the sample size is so small that any conclusions would be subject to such a wide margin of error that they would be meaningless. Still, it would be worth asking those questions of cadets as they progress through the meat grinder.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Keep in mind that some black cadets also “progress through the meat grinder” and become senior cadets who are also able to render discipline to the less senior cadets – black and white.

        There some truth there. I’m not sure we’re getting all of it yet.

    2. tmtfairfax Avatar
      tmtfairfax

      A number of years ago, my son, wife and I went on a visit (college tour) to VMI. We had a very honest student guide for part of the tour. She told my son that, as member of the Rat Line, he’d be treated worse than dirt with every nit turned into a federal case. He chose Old Dominion for a variety of reasons. But the upper classman’s honesty was appreciated.

    3. PassTheBuckBureaucrat Avatar
      PassTheBuckBureaucrat

      Reminds me of a conversation I had not long ago. A friend was bemoaning how contractors were trying to take advantage of her because she was female. I had to let her in on the fact that most contractors are a$$holes; gender has little to do with it.

  4. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    $1m for 540 surveys, 73 interviews and a flawed report. Is B&T a subsidiary of NAH, LLC?

    1. Baconator with extra cheese Avatar
      Baconator with extra cheese

      You win with that comment.

    2. The Derecho Avatar
      The Derecho

      Nah, more likely a wholly owned subsidiary of Dominion Power.

    3. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      No. They’re lawyers, and based on billable hours, the youngest member at the firm is 140 years old.

  5. Steve Gillispie Avatar
    Steve Gillispie

    More excellent reporting documenting the pervasive dishonesty of what most people, unfortunately, have as their source of information — liberal, agenda-driven, narrative-obsessed liberal propaganda disguised as reporting.
    Good work BR!

  6. Baconator with extra cheese Avatar
    Baconator with extra cheese

    Wypipo and their statistics are so funny….
    This is about feelings, you can’t quantify woke.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Why do I suspect the WashPost reporter knows all or most of the names of those unhappy few, which we do not know….? So 12 current students in the survey and 17, perhaps overlapping, in face to face interviews and the school’s reputation is gone for good.

      1. Baconator with extra cheese Avatar
        Baconator with extra cheese

        Northam should just man-up and close VMI down.
        It’s the most fitting act of self-flagellation Cadet Coonman could perform as the penultimate move on his reparations tour.
        The encore would be a moonwalk over to the Lee monument to knock it over with his bedazzled white glove of penance.

        We know he’s toast with no future political prospects… so he must protect Terry at all costs and not leave these controversies to be cleaned up. He will sacrifce himself for woke.

      2. M. Purdy Avatar
        M. Purdy

        And 30 alums, who reflected about the same sentiments as the cadets.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          How many Alumni total interviewed? How many black? How many white?

          I would not be surprised that some who currently attend would be reluctant to participate. Word does get around and some might feel that anonymity could not be assured.

          1. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            2496 total respondents to the survey. Does not capture all interviewees or focus group participants. 540 cadet respondents, which is roughly a third (not bad given the circumstances). Only 12 of those were black, but overall 42 black respondents not including all interviewees. I can imagine many black respondents were reluctant to participate, given the tone of the reaction to the investigation in the VMI community.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Is that 42 total out of 2496 total? Also do we know how many of the black enrolled are there on athletic scholarships?

          3. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            42 total black respondents, yes. 72 black Division I athletes in the school out of 409 total, roughly 18%.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I thought there were slightly over 100 total blacks enrolled at VMI. no?

          5. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            Yes, but many aren’t athletes.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            72 black Division I athletes in the school ?

            a little over 100 total enrolled?

          7. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            Yes.

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            thanks. Are there different academic requirements for athletes to enroll?

          9. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            That, I don’t know. It’s not discussed in the report other than obliquely in the most generic description of overall college athletics. I would assume the answer is yes, given what I know about most if not all other DI programs.

          10. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Okay thanks. I thought I heard/read that there was some animosity between regular cadets and athletes… not categorized in racial terms pe se. Do most VMI athletes graduate similar to non-athletes in percents? Were those that dropped out also interviewed?

          11. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            Yes, that tension between athlete/non-athlete is covered in detail in the report. The report does discuss that the underlying tension is likely race-based in various contexts . Grad rates are covered, but would have to dig them up.

          12. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            In some Colleges, I’ve heard that athletes have a much lower graduation rate probably not surprising if they were admitted with academic waivers.

            I have no idea of the situation at VMI but would hope that VMI is different and it’s athletes go on to graduate and become successful in the military as well.

            I think it would be useful to hear from those who did not make it as well as those who were expelled and the reasons why and if the felt they were treated fairly.

            I suspect the investigation was rushed and consequently not as much time to do the deeper look.

            I appreciate you sharing what you know as well as a little of your views.

          13. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            Thanks, yes, it seems that it was under heavy time pressure and the VMI community managed to send mixed signals on whether to participate. Having spoken to dozens of black alums and friends, there was a great deal of reluctance in that community to come forward even in a pseudo-anonymous fashion. I’m saddened, but not surprised turnout among that community was as low as it was. I still think the conclusions stand.

          14. owen dunlap Avatar
            owen dunlap

            Not sure what you mean by pseudo anonymous – the law firm offered ways to contact them directly and promised anonymity did it not?

          15. James Cottrell Avatar
            James Cottrell

            There is no evidence at all of any intimidation in this reckless statement and imaginings. It is also insufferably patronizing to black cadets. Do you know any past or present black cadets? I certainly do. VMI cadets white or of any color are not snowflakes that melt in the face of opposition or contentious situations. It is a fact that no one is forced to attend VMI and the school makes no secret of its challenging system or the great results it achieves for those who attend, stay. and graduate. The dissatisfied or unwilling can leave anytime they wish and they do—it is not the army and they are not draftees. It is more likely that the non-participating black cadets are proud to be part of the school and have no desire to participate in changing or destroying its heritage and the challenging system which they sought to excel in and make themselves a part of the rest of their lives–the same as white cadets. It is an experience that bonds cadets to each other beyond the petty the political allegiances and racial identity issues that plague and obsess the progressives who seek to destroy and divide it.

  7. James – the problem is evident —– you are using math and facts and we all now know that both are white supremacy-based racist endeavors — as explained by the Smithsonian’s NMAAHC graphic on ‘Whiteness’

  8. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    B and T have a million bucks to spend. Who gets the new sports car? Barnes or Thornburger? This makes chiropractors look honest.

    1. PassTheBuckBureaucrat Avatar
      PassTheBuckBureaucrat

      Thats OK, its someone elses money. 🙁

  9. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Surveying cadets who are currently enrolled at VMI – especially the ones with scholarships may not get earnest answers.

    Surveying those that just graduated – where they really have a lot less to lose will likely get you more responses and more earnest responses.

  10. M. Purdy Avatar
    M. Purdy

    First time poster here…12 black cadet respondents is not great, but indicative of some of the ‘culture of silence’ issues discussed in the report. But there were also 30 black alumni respondents whose assessment was not much better and in some cases worse than the cadets. Further, there were 17 black interviewees (some of whom may have overlapped). Finally, and most importantly, regardless of the back and forth on the numbers, VMI’s BOV announced today that they’re going to recommend implementing “most” of the recommendations and evaluate the rest. They were also “grateful” that the report recommended that the core systems (ratline, HC, etc.) remain intact. So war’s over, folks. Let’s get to making VMI a better place!

    1. PassTheBuckBureaucrat Avatar
      PassTheBuckBureaucrat

      ’til next time

      I mean, if it were that simple all this hub-bub wouldn’t be necessary.

      Wonder what the reporter that instigated this is going to do now? Is he done? I doubt it

      Wonder what the relationship between Wash Compost and B&T is?

      1. Rumor has it that the WaPo reporter bought houses next door to the BLM leader in those neighborhoods. 😉

    2. owen dunlap Avatar
      owen dunlap

      Mike – i disagree with ” wars’s over folks” based on the statement released by the Governor and leaders of the GA and the black caucus. When the report was released -they called the major steps the VMI has taken since this all started as “incremental” and that “much more needs to be done” and then implied they will use state funding as hammer until they push VMI to the point where it changes 100% like they want or until the nation or state tires of grievance and identity politics . Of course when you sign a letter before an investigation is done that labeled VMI guilty of systemic racism as Northam’ 81 did – you kinda have to play it that way till the end

      1. M. Purdy Avatar
        M. Purdy

        I suppose I’m less concerned about the politics of all of this and more concerned about rectifying the sexual assault and race issues on campus immediately, regardless of what the Gov. and GA have to say about it. Steps need to be taken yesterday…no more complaining about the perceived injustice of it all.

  11. William O'Keefe Avatar
    William O’Keefe

    This report is a disgraceful abuse of statistics and its position of representing the Commonwealth in conducting the investigation. Unless B&T and the Governor feel the heat, neither will see the light. Pound the media with the statistics and the distortions until they produce fair reporting of this issue. Every paper, news radio station and local TV station should be contacted.

    1. M. Purdy Avatar
      M. Purdy

      No, it’s not. And VMI already agreed to implement the recommendations, so the only thing harangues like this accomplish is to prolong the cycle of damage to VMI’s rep.

      1. William O'Keefe Avatar
        William O’Keefe

        If the report is biased, it should be challenged. The fact that VMI is making changes does not change the fact that the data were misused to support a preconceived conclusion.

  12. James Cottrell Avatar
    James Cottrell

    Interesting comments, especially those who assume that the VMI administration would retaliate against complainers. There is no evidence of that at all and the assumption is not justified even within the report. In fact, I would say the VMI Board and the administration employees have been overly and eagerly compliant, even to the point of adopting CRT vocabulary and, just yesterday, meekly agreeing to just about everything demanded. Most of what they have done since this situation began has shown nothing but attempted appeasement, with the traditional result that even more is demanded by those they are trying to appease. It will never be enough and they will never be “pure” enough. A special oversight Board to implement the changes? A “commissar” on staff to make certain everyone complies? Indoctrination classes to tell cadets and staff what to think and say instead of how to think—all at odds with the real purpose of higher education. These are Orwellian control devices that would make someone cringe and think VMI was nothing short of being a despicable KKK academy as opposed to its strong record as one of the most outstanding and unique colleges in the country.

    Most of the comments made here reflect the bias of the writer regardless of the evidence or lack of it. I certainly have mine as a proud graduate of VMI’s Class of 1974. However, I am also a trial attorney and believe in evidence and due process, neither of which has been a facet of the B&T million dollar investigation and the governor’s political agenda and control over it. I doubt anything about this process has affected the views anyone had before it began, unless it strengthened those who rightfully mistrusted it as a political attack against a great, traditional institution that has served the Commonwealth and our country so undeniably well that Justice Ginsberg wrote a SCOTUS opinion saying that its very success demanded that women be given the right to attend and enjoy the benefits and prestige of becoming a graduate. If there is any truth at all to smears of its current detractors and those in the report, one wonders why anyone would want to go there. If anything has resulted from this debacle and the craven actions of the BOV and this governor, it has been to tarnish the brand of VMI to the detriment of the school and its graduates of all races and genders.

    The report is particularly offensive because it is not statistically valid but pretends to be, does not give credence to anyone but a reported six black cadets who may have a hundred reasons why they said what they did even though the same number said the opposite, and actually suggests that the overwhelming number of white cadets and cadets of color who very much disagreed that there is a systemic problem that must be addressed is actually evidence itself of racist attitudes. So why bother to ask cadets and alumni about it if they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t? As Bacon says, the result was preordained by the disingenuous political imperatives of our present governing caste which is fixated on identity politics. The purpose was not to investigate but rather to justify a decision already made.

    My own experience at VMI began a mere two years after black cadets were admitted. Those who matriculated with me were my Brother Rats, and they remain so. I would do no more or less for them than my other classmates, and they know as I do that the Brother Rat Spirit trumps all other distinctions. Our lives were all different when we arrived not only due to different ethnicities but different regions, different family situations, different religions and of course different athletic, academic and intellectual aptitudes and talents. We were quickly welded together through the VMI system and given a new identity through common hardships and our willing allegiance to the Corps, its honor system and its traditions. For those of us that went through it together, it has made all the difference to our lives—which is why we resist changing it.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: ” Interesting comments, especially those who assume that the VMI administration would retaliate against complainers”

      Early on, didn’t VMI want to “sit in” on the interviews?

      Do you consider that – as a legal person – appropriate?

      1. M. Purdy Avatar
        M. Purdy

        They did. This person is not strong on the facts.

      2. James Cottrell Avatar
        James Cottrell

        The extent to which VMI insisted on counsel being present is explained in the report, but the tone and exposition is aggressively hostile toward the VMI attorneys. Unfortunately, there is no forum of similar publicity for those attorneys or Institute staff and faculty to explain the position of the VMI attorneys and there will likely not be since the Board of Visitors has all but capitulated, making any rebuttal moot in efficacy. However, even the report itself and as biased and broad-brushed as it is demonstrates that the presence of attorneys was not always a factor since a lot of data was gathered in-person forum meetings and a telephone number anyone could call to speak to B&T investigators was widely used. Many non-lawyers wrongly believe that the use or presence of an attorney inhibits investigations when the opposite is true. They are there to make sure due process is observed, something essential to the protection of the accused, yet something remarkably absent from this process. Moreover, it must be stressed that this was a political star chamber proceeding controlled by politicians with a pre-planned agenda, so anyone interested in actual truth finding should be rightly suspicious of it and alert to likely abuse. Even though there is no process for challenging the B&T report as lawyers would normally be allowed to do before conclusions are reached, it is astonishing how much data was unearthed that actually contradicts the shrill summary when the appendix is examined. And yes, despite the next comment by Purdy, I am very well informed on this travesty.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Wait. If an entity’s conduct is being investigated and there is a concern that witnesses may face retaliation, you still support that entity’s representatives being present at the interviews?

          And you’re a lawyer? What if you were representing these witnesses?

          You sound like you are an advocate for VMI not someone looking for a fair process – i.e. “star chamber”, etc.

          Nope. You’re done. I’d not trust your legal advice or objectivity for nothing.

          1. James Cottrell Avatar
            James Cottrell

            Yes, I am an unapologetic advocate for VMI because it is a great college and its graduates have been consistently successful in life with demonstrated service to state and country. Virginia should be grateful for it . You seem strangely disinterested in any process that protects both sides in a truth finding endeavor. We will just have to disagree on fundamental due process concerns and their role in preventing others from enforcing their prejudices without the necessity of objective process to determine reliable facts. Let us leave it at that since it is clear neither of us can be persuaded to the other’s point of view. Let the readership decide.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            If you were representing the other sides interests, would you want representatives of those under investigating to be in the room with witnesses giving their initial statements?

            How would you protect them from intimidation?

        2. M. Purdy Avatar
          M. Purdy

          I am a lawyer and what you said completely misrepresents the crux of the VMI lawyer issue and the nature of the investigation.

          1. owen dunlap Avatar
            owen dunlap

            so – this is where we are as an alumni base – deeply split – you have two smart VMI alumni lawyers who probably would both tell you they are thankful in many ways for the decision to attend VMI – at each others necks – thanks Ralph Northam ’81 for signing that letter that convicted our school being systematically racists prior to any investigation and all the great media coverage that has flowed out since

          2. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            This has nothing to do with Northam. VMI needs to improve itself, and it can. What it can’t do is hold onto the past and re-litigate issues that are settled. The report has been released, the BOV has accepted the recommendations. Time to move forward.

          3. owen dunlap Avatar
            owen dunlap

            my bad – i thought he signed a letter that convicted VMI of systemic racism prior to any investigation – a letter that garnered great headlines and twitter and facebook forwards all around the country- a letter that signaled to the contracted Law firm that wouldn’t know a dyke from a dyke that – YES there was systematic racism at VMI – a letter that was short and easy to read and on official letterhead from the Governor of Va – not some nuanced 150 page Lawyer Report that no one in the media or that General Assembly will remember or read ( of course except that VMI is a school for white men run by white men) – i must have been dreaming

          4. M. Purdy Avatar
            M. Purdy

            It is indeed your bad. You’d rather whine about the ‘bad ole govna’ than help the school. It has problems. Let’s help fix them.

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