Leigh Gallagher, assistant managing editor of Fortune magazine, made a big splash last year with her book, “The End of the Suburbs.” While she added little new to the urbanism vs. suburbanism debate, she did a superb job of articulating and popularizing the urbanism side of the argument. The title is misleading — probably dictated by her publishers looking to make it more controversial — in that Gallagher doesn’t predict the demise of the suburbs but rather their transformation. In the TED speech shown above (Hat tip: Strong Towns blog) she makes the case that the “suburbs,” by which she means the lower-density, autocentric communities built since World War II, will take on more traditional urban forms: more density, greater walkability, less cookie-cutter building types.
It would be safe to say that Gallagher sees little future for the low-density “cul de sac” suburb and predicts a revival of the older, trolley-stop or train-station suburbs of the early 20th century where houses were close together, blocks were lined with sidewalks, and there were local downtowns that people could walk to. “A lot of people think these kinds of suburbs are really well positioned for the future,” she says. Whether you call them “urban burbs,” or “vintage burbs,” (after the movie) “Silver Lining Playbook burbs,” or, following the The New York Times, “hipsturbia” (gag), they represent a mid-density development type that Americans will see more of.
Many people want the real thing — the excitement of living near the urban core. But due to NIMBYism and urban zoning restrictions, the supply of urban-core housing can’t come close to keeping up with demand. Inevitably, the interest of developers and home builders will shift to the vintage burbs. Unfortunately, NIMBYism is likely to limit re-development there as well. If the urbanists are right about housing demand drying up on the metropolitan fringe, the action by necessity will shift to the in-between burbs.
The pattern that seems to be emerging is this: The new suburban regime will protect existing neighborhoods of Single Family Dwellings from re-development because most people who live in them like their lifestyle and want to protect it. But the market for new cul de sacs will shrink markedly as lifestyle preferences shift. We will see more mixed-use development, apartments, condos and townhouses in areas once zoned for commercial and light industrial where re-development at higher density does not threaten the integrity of existing neighborhoods. There is enough land dedicated to these uses that Virginia (and the rest of the United States) should be able to accommodate population growth for the next two or three decades with relatively little conflict.
The great planning challenge of the early 21st century will be re-developing and retrofitting these “suburban” places .
— JAB
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