The economic and political ‘news’ via MainStream Media during the week before Thanksgiving 2008 provided a strong incentive to give fervent thanks. But perhaps not the thanks that some think.
First some context:
In the early 1970s EMR’s and his Clustermates worked hard to elect a “reform / change” candidate for County Executive in Howard County, Maryland. Our candidate won. EMR received a plum political appointment (an unsalaried commission chairpersonship) and a broad range of very useful experiences.
The citizens of Howard County, however, did not fare as well. The new County Exec spent the next four years proving that he would NOT do what his opposition warned he would do if he was elected – and what those who voted for him hoped he would do if he was elected.
There was no Fundamental Transformation under the new Exec. He was not reelected to a second term because he had only partially satisfied those who voted against him in the first election and frustrated those who voted for him. He tried to satisfy all the voters instead of taking the actions that were necessary to achieve a sustainable trajectory for the Communities that are all or part in Howard County.
The time frame was a pivotal one in the evolution of the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region. The Planned New Community of Columbia, MD is located in Howard County. Due to county actions and inactions, many aspects of James Rouse’s vision for Columbia were least-common-denominatored into oblivion and lost forever. Now Reston is cited as THE place in the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region which demonstrates that there is an alternative to dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See superficial but accurate story “The Often-Imitated Reston Eyes Future With Trepidation,” 28 November 2008 in WaPo. (We say “superficial” because to really address this issue would require the entire Section A ‘news hole.’ That is not possible. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.
EMR lived for nearly a decade in Columbia (1972-1980) and in Reston (1980-1988). Both have become less than their potential but the biggest lost opportunity occurred in Columbia while “our” candidate was County Exec. During that time there was an opportunity to use Community actions in the context of the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo to provide examples that could have been springboards toward a sustainable future. The opportunities were squandered.
Fast forward to the last week of November in 2008. The handwriting is on the wall.
There is a palpable optimism in Greater Warrenton-Fauquier, in the Commonwealth of Virginia and in the US of A. Citizens believe they have reason to hope there will be “change we can believe in,” change for the better. This optimism is evidenced by the celebration in Grant Park, the demand for tickets to Inauguration events and in animated conversations on Main Street.
There are signs of optimism are based on some of the President-Elects initial statements and promised nominations. The stock market was up before Thanksgiving on the speculation that there will be more bailouts.
It should be noted that not all the views are positive. There are those who fear real change and they are portraying the prospect of Obama led change with a negative spin. Politics-As-Usual advocates are filling partisan blogs with demeaning observations on every action, rumor or illusion that can be misinterpreted to generate fear. The most frightening head line? Karl Rove says Obama is doing a good job because he is picking “experienced” political operatives.
But what is REALLY happening?
The optimism is based on the assumption that the next administration, lead by an economic team of retreads will return the economy to one driven by Mass OverConsumption driven and that these actions will ‘save’ and create jobs for the unmotivated and under-qualified consumers.
The problem is that every action to build consumer confidence and increase consumption will make it harder to achieve sustainable trajectory for First World civilization.
Buying new Autonomobiles will only reinforce dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Bailing out mortgages on Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong Locations will only encourage more unsecured lending and the development of even more dysfunctional settlement patterns.
While the recent ‘team’ announcements generate optimism about a bigger cornucopia of even more bailouts, citizens should have grave reservations about the appointments announced to date.
These are the same politics-as-usual ‘players’ who made the decisions that put the economy in meltdown.
They do not understand the importance of human settlement patterns. They do not understand the roll of Autonomobiles in creating the Mobility and Access Crisis. Members of the transportation team (Downey, Garvey, Heminger, Oberstar and the rest) have spent their entire working life making the mistakes that have resulted in a failed and crumbling Mobility and Access System.
The US of A has grossly OVER INVESTED in and OVER-SUBSIDIZED Air Travel capacity on the assumption that demand will grow without regard to the total cost and environmental impact. Rising costs – including finally paying for environmental impact – is putting air travel out of the reach of most. The inconvenience of anti-terrorism measures makes air travel a pain for all but those who fly in private planes. “See The End of Flight As We Knew It.” (As an aside, there is painful irony in United Airlines betting on rising fuel costs in the short run. Why again are ‘futures’ not just another form of anti-Community gambling?)
The US of A has grossly UNDER INVESTED in functional IntraRegional and InterRegional shared-vehicle ground transport that would support functional and sustainable settlement patterns.
The US of A has grossly OVER INVESTED and OVER-SUBSIDIZED Autonomobility on the false assumption that Large, Private Vehicles could provide Mobility and Access in spite of a laundry list of obvious problems. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.
The vast majority of citizens live in a handful of MegaRegions – conterminous New Urban Regions – for which the Autonomobile and Large, Private Vehicle Roadway Systems is the problem, not the solution for Mobility and Access.
The transport infrastructure is failing – there is a Mobility and Access Crisis and the facilities are falling apart. Big construction projects to produce jobs will just mean more investment in the wrong systems and will not provide sustainable Mobility and Access and will not support unsustainable human settlement patterns.
The new economic ‘team’ still does not understand the impact of the housing market on the economy. Few admit the impact of the Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location in the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Mobility and Access Crisis.
Here is a quote from Chapter 22 of BRIDGES now in final draft:
“Out of all this, three clippings stand out:
1. “Bernake: There’s No Housing Bubble to Go Bust” in WaPo Business Section 27 October 2005
2. “Housing Cool-Down Is ‘Orderly,’ Fed Chief (Bernake) Says” in WaPo Business Section, 19 May 2006
3. “Fed Chief (Bernake) Says Housing Problems Won’t Spread to Rest of Economy” on Page C4 of the 29 March 2007 New York Times.
The first quote was from a few days before President Bush nominated Bernake to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The bottom line is that the “leaders” at the federal level did not have a clue what was happening.”
They still do not know what happened or what will result from pumping more cheap money into shelter related Enterprises before everyone understand the importance of evolving functional human settlement patterns.
The economic rescue squad is burning
through the $700-billion bailout war chest but handing it out to whom so ever threatens to go under. Student loan sharks are the latest ‘victims.’
Here is a great vignette: In the 30 November Wapo (Close to Home) a state senator from Maryland says: “Effective Stimulus? Think Local, Mr. Obama.” Jim Bacon frequently rails about municipal Agency waste and here is a specific. Senator Rosapepe wants federal money to help pay for CROSSING GUARDS.
The reason crossing guards are needed is because children cannot walk safely to school. Why? Dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See note on Columbia and Reston above. Both these still Beta Communities demonstrated how to have safe pathways to schools, the library and the store – including “eyes on the path” – forty years ago. Columbia’s system deteriorated because the School Board scrapped Neighborhood schools and build too many too large shopping venues as noted in The Shape of the Future. Wherever one turns it is THE SETTLEMENT PATTERN STUPID.
The head line reads “The Car of the Future – But at What Cost? Hybrid Vehicles Are Popular, but Making Them, Profitable Is a Challenge.” What nonsense! There is a sure way to make any product profitable: Raise price to cover expenses plus profit. But for Large, Private Vehicles – regardless of the source of power – raising the price means far fewer will be able to afford Autonomobiles. That means the Autonomobile Enterprises will not be able to use most of their overbuilt capacity based on the false assumption that Autonomobiles would provide Mobility and Access.
And all that new technology? The more complex the vehicle, the more it costs. Most citizens would need nothing more than their feet, a bike, a Segway, a Vespa or a Golf Cart for all their travel IF THERE WERE FUNCTIONAL SETTLEMENT PATTERNS.
EMR noted in a recent blog post:
“The cost of energy in all forms – and all goods and services that use energy – is going up.
“Burning thru easy-to-access Natural Capital and borrowing from foreign suppliers has kept the cost of energy and all that energy cost impact artificially low.
“Already the cost of energy has ended The Age of Accessible Air Travel (Terrorism has ended convenient Air Travel at any cost.) See “The End of Flight As We Have Known It.”
“The end of The Age of Autonomobiles, The Age of Big, Scattered Dwellings and other examples of Mass OverConsumption is in sight.
“So is the end of a lot of other things.”
The only question is can citizens come to understand the need for Fundamental Transformations fast enough to implement them before there are not enough resources left to make the Transformation.
The Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday headlines on the economy and the governance transition have been over-washed by the attacks in Mumbai, Bangkok and Wal*Mart. No one will know for months if the stock market ‘good news’ and the cut rate ‘doorbusters’ stimulated the economy but if they did, that just makes things worse.
What does the administration do to “save jobs” in an dysfunctional economy? Stimulating consumption is not the answer.
What is really need are sustainable ways to use the US of A’s greatest surplus resource. That resource is citizens who are not very bright and not very motivated. They:
• Slept through the important parts of high school
• Want to be entertained rather that create their own active, healthful recreation
• Almost all have made location and consumption decisions that they thought were in their best interest, but cumulatively these actions contribute to the growing economic, social and physical dysfunction
Because they happen to be born in US of A they believe “someone” owes them a comfortable life of consumption and entertainment. They are not willing to work at the jobs that those that are attractive to those who are bright, resourceful and were unfortunate enough to have been born in some other nation-state.
There is plenty of challenge and opportunity for the bright and the motivated, it is the vast majority of the Running As Hard As They Cans and most of the Losing Grounds in the bottom 90 percent of the Ziggurat that need reorientation and something productive to do.
Telling a large percentage of the population they are fat, under-educated and slothful is not a way to get elected or reelected. “Leading” the citizens out of their self-created wilderness of sloth, indulgence and dysfunctional ways may not be possible with dwindling resources.
It has taken EMR 40 years to develop the comprehensive Conceptual Framework and the Vocabulary to articulate what should have been obvious to all in 1973. Having those tools in Howard County in 1974 would have been useful. Now the entire nation-state is sliding to the edge and no one is interested in anything but getting back to Mass OverConsumption.
This post opened with a reference to the economic political news during the last week of November and suggested that this news provided reason to give thanks.
Some think a rebounding stock market, lower mortgage interest rates and lower gas prices to encourage more holiday travel were cause for optimism.
Wrong.
The reason for giving thanks this season is:
Most of us born before World War II will be gone before the full impact of sloth, indulgence, consumption and corruption that has led to Mass OverConsumption and settlement pattern dysfunction turns out most of the lights and humans are left with the challenge of making draconian Transformations and few, very expensive resources with which to make them.
EMR hopes you had a nice Thanksgiving too.
EMR