Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Teachers, Your Commute Puts You at More Risk than In-Person Classes

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

The fatality risk of teaching a class in-person during the COVID-19 epidemic last fall was comparable to the risk of driving 16 miles in a car.

That is the top-line conclusion of a study based on extensive data from North Carolina, Wisconsin, Australia, England, and Israel covering almost 80 million person-days in school. That study. “The Incidence and Magnitude of the Health Costs of In-person Schooling during the COVID-19 Pandemic,” by University of Chicago economics professor Casey B. Mulligan, was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

For perspective, the average commuting distance (both ways) in Virginia is about 44 miles.

The 16-miles of driving is an average risk factor. Risks are lower for teachers who are younger and live alone, and higher for older teachers who live in households with spouses or partners. Rates also vary by the prevalence of the virus in the community. Mulligan assumed that teachers and partners were unvaccinated. His scenario was based on a level of disease prevalent experienced in the U.S. in the fall of 2020.

Bacon’s bottom line: Mulligan does not explore the public policy implications of his findings. But one can reasonably assume that with a steadily increasing percentage of the population being vaccinated, the risks of COVID infection at school, which were small to begin with, are declining. Teachers’ risks of dying from the disease from a school-acquired infection are fast approaching zero. Mulligan does not attempt to measure the risks associated with prolonging the social isolation of students, which contributes to anxiety, depression, and suicidal ideation, but they are widely acknowledged to be greater than zero.

It’s hard to see how any school district can justify delaying a return to in-person learning. Here’s the Virginia Department of Education map, effective March 22, showing the instruction status of the state’s school districts.

If you live in a school district where in-person learning is still curtailed due to resistance by teachers to return to school, here’s a question to ask: When the epidemic is over, do you intend to drive to work? Yes? Then what’s holding you back now?

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25 responses to “Teachers, Your Commute Puts You at More Risk than In-Person Classes”

  1. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Two sides of the same “crazy” coin: Those who have stoked unreasonable fears to continue failed and even dangerous mitigation strategies, wrecking education and the economy, and those who will continue to refuse to get vaccinated, keeping too much virus in circulation. Gallup recently put it at 26% still, down from 29%. A plague on both their houses (pardon the pun.)

    1. vicnicholls Avatar
      vicnicholls

      Kinda interesting that a conservative would wish ill on those who have an interpretation of the data/research that differs from yours. Downgrading us because some of us can read medical data, I thought that was your only hatred of us. I don’t hold those accountable that gave me the flu in life. Pity you don’t have the same mercy.

      1. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        I hold no animosity, and pity is a better word. You have no medical data to back up that position. Politics aside we have a duty of care to our fellow Americans, and getting vaccinated against a deadly airborne disease seems a pretty easy step to take. For the sake of those you love, do it.

        1. vicnicholls Avatar
          vicnicholls

          You do when you wish ill on the folks. I do have data to back it up but like good progressive, you deny it anyway. I do not have any duty nor owe any one else that – given that I already pay for enough of others in taxes, they owe ME for the years I’ve supported others. Not just taxes either. Works both ways Stephen. The virus may be deadly to you but to many of us the IFR doesn’t justify it. All I love and care for, support me. We support each other in whatever the person wants to do. I’m happy you got the shot and are fine as I am with those who I share air with that aren’t.

          1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System from the CDC reveals some facts that are noteworthy. In Virginia this year the Covid Vaccine has:
            1. Resulted in 37 deaths.
            2. 43 life threatening events.
            3. 31 permanent disablities.
            4. 106 hospitalizations.
            You can check it out for yourself here:
            https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D8

            Disclaimer: Retired school teacher could have constructed the table incorrectly. But I think I got it right.

          2. James A. Bacon Avatar
            James A. Bacon

            I know a guy who knows a guy who knew a guy (I’m not making this up) who took the COVID-19 vaccine and dropped dead the next day. Did he die because of the vaccine, or would he have died anyway? Who knows. But vaccines have risks. I thought it well worth the risk to take the vaccine, and I’m glad I did. My side-effects were very mild. But other people should be entitled to make their own decisions.

          3. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            I hear you Mr. Bacon. I am not an anti vaccine guy. When my turn comes I will take that shot. But I do understand the fear, doubt, and hesitation many folks have. They are real. There are 4 principles to medical ethics. Autonomy, beneficence, nonmaleficence, and justice. No one principle can override the other. I respect people’s right to autonomy.

          4. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Yes. But they should be readily identifiable so that I might avoid them.
            “No shirt, no shots, no service.”

          5. Stephen Haner Avatar
            Stephen Haner

            If you tell me 37 died at some point after being vaccinated, that is plausible. But “caused” is a factual determination and I suspect these are just reports still being looked at. If not, biggest media cover up ever. Is that why people are refusing?

          6. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            I don’t believe anybody is discussing this data about the Covid vaccine in Virginia. From 2005 to 2020 there were 34 vaccine adverse events that resulted in death. In one year we passed that total.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Well, the teachers believe the science, want to wear masks, socially distance, get vaccinated, etc… and please note that other institutions like court rooms, clerk offices, DMV, and many local and state committees, including the GOP convention have similar concerns to the teachers with regard to community spread.

      On the Conservative side, they don’t want to wear masks, socially distant, get vaccinated but still want to congregate in public spaces like restaurants, churches, sports venues, etc.

      If you ask Conservatives for the Conservative approach – there is none because they don’t agree among themselves. If there were no “liberals”and only Conservatives they STILL would not agree on a general approach!

      How can you govern when not even the folks with supposedly similar philosophies can come to a compromise?

      1. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        The hilarious thing is that Trump ought to be claiming huge amounts of credit for the fast, successful vaccine development, world wide, but he won’t even admit to his worshippers that he and his wife took the shots. Dumbest thing ever!

        The teachers don’t “believe the science” Larry because the science overwhelmingly says schools can be quite safe. Science backed up by more than one year of daily testing in thousands of settings. You and VN — two sides of the same coin.

        1. vicnicholls Avatar
          vicnicholls

          Uh, Trump did admit he got the shots, and has urged folks to do so. Least I’ve seen it before, more than once. People dont’ worship him, I don’t, I appreciate the policies and his economic/political acumen in various areas. Amazing how you accuse Larry and Nancy of putting words in mouths, and then turn around and do it to a conservative. Is that just for folks that don’t agree with you on a subject you feel strongly on?

        2. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          The CDC said restrictions based on community spread – the SAME criteria used by Courts, Sports, AND the GOP primary process.. Why the double standard for teachers?

          When I see the GOP doing a regular primary then I’ll agree the teachers are on a different standard.

          Somehow, all these schools , following CDC guidelines are a liberal “conspiracy”, eh?

        3. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          I don’t need science. I have red berries.
          https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56597319
          Red berries.
          When a monkey watches another monkey sicken after eating the red berries…

          “In Europe, where schools have been opened since the fall, some countries, have now had to close doors in light of the spread of the B117 variant. Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany, have all confirmed B117 outbreaks in schools.”

          https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/experts-3-foot-rule-schools-problematic-light-covid-variants

          For the last year, we’ve watched schools close, open, close, etc., in countries thoughout the world and the results are the same. Ride the wild serf, er, surf. As each wave comes having schools open contributes.

          If we keep effing with this virus, it will kill us. 600,000 Steve.

          Meh, it’s just a handful of variants.

  2. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Funny. True for cops and being killed on duty too.

  3. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Washington Post headline today: “Will school be back to normal this fall? Kind of, sort of, maybe.”

    Parents, students and teachers, exhausted by the false starts, union battles, quarantines and remote learning that have upended this school year, are looking around the bend with an urgent, fretful question: Come fall, will school at last be back to normal?

    The likely answer: Sort of, but not really. And not for everybody.

    School districts across the country are planning to return to full-time, in-person classes this fall. But some also are planning for hybrid systems that combine in-person and remote learning as a fallback.

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Curiouser and curiouser.
    Mar 15, 2021 — The United Kingdom variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been detected for the first time in a dog and a cat from the same household in Brazos County, Texas.

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    B.1.1.7 Steve. Just say, “I don’t believe!” And it all goes away.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      So you are among those still hiding in the basement despite being vaccinated? Or just using fear to impose political control….while going about your life despite….

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Well, no. The SCIENCE is STILL evolving and that gives folks the opportunity to say what they “believe” or not, so they can say Science is wrong and don’t trust it – that’s where the anti folks come from, no?

        It seems a simple proposition – is it riskier to “trust” science but still die from the vaccine or not trust science and die from Covid?

        When you have “doubts”, all kinds of uncomfortable things come to the fore. When you believe and trust the science, you go on, even when it’s not perfect and things still go sideways.

        But being in between where one “trusts” one kind of science but not another, it gets wobbly.

        all in how one wants to hold their mouth.

  6. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Hmm, England 67M with 5M infections, 1 variant,
    Sou. Africa 59M with 2M infections, another variant,
    Brazil 212M with 13M infections, another variant…

    Texas 29M… variants?

    Maybe that’s what they did in that Wuhan lab, figured out how to remove the intervening animal and use human genetic material to let the virus mutate into more infectious and possibly deadlier variants. Don’t need pigs and chickens anymore.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      That is exactly what they did in the Wuhan Lab, with malice aforethought and our dollars. But so far the evidence is quite strong that the vaccines, especially the mRNA versions, are handling the variants. Gottlieb on CNBC this morning says they are not seeing reinfections or infections of the vaccinated.

      He is on Pfizer’s board, but has credibility with me.

      I had a feeling my initial comment would start a food fight. I feel confirmed in my opinion that the fear mongers at both ends of the spectrum do a lot of harm. A few more weeks of 4 million shots a day and the US will be looking very different.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        What initial comment? You put a troll out someplace? That’s disappointing since the lead comment in this thread was a baited hook of my own.

  7. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    One safety item regarding any shots is fainting.
    Fainting is a automatic vasovagal reflex that is kicked off by the craziest little stimuli…sometimes just standing too long does it. I had it happen once some years ago during jogging for no apparent reason, at about the same time a friend fainted getting a shot and got banged up pretty bad…I got hurt too. Now I think I would know to sit down the next time I feel funny.

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