Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Song Sung Blue

—

by

James A. Bacon
in ,

by James A. Bacon

Not every General Assembly race has been decided, according to the data displayed by the Virginia Public Access Project, but enough votes are in to conclude that the Democrats won the election. They retained their control of the state Senate and won a narrow majority in the House. Some preliminary observations:

Bye, Bye White House. Governor Glenn Youngkin can stop entertaining fantasies about running for president. Give him credit for fighting hard to win GOP control of the state legislature. But he failed. He has not cracked the code on how to turn blue states red, and, therefore, he does not create a viable alternative to Donald Trump in the GOP presidential nomination contest.

Abortion, abortion, abortion. Youngkin staked his effort to retake the General Assembly largely on a platform of banning abortion after 15 weeks (with exceptions for rape and incest). It was a more moderate plank than what we’ve seen in other red states, but it was not what most Virginians wanted. The Virginia GOP needs to decide which is more important: abortion or… taxes, government spending, jobs, crime, parental rights, public-sector unions, salvaging K-12, reforming higher- ed, and every other issue they could make progress on if Democrats didn’t have the abortion issue to beat them with.

Speaking of running on abortion… Admittedly, it’s hard to know if the electorate really opposes Younkin’s 15-week abortion platform or it opposes an imagined total ban on abortion. From my vantage point in Henrico County, Democratic candidate ads and mailers were all abortion all the time, fanning fears that Republicans would end abortion outright.

Speaking personally, I’m fine with the abortion status quo in Virginia. I don’t see the need to make restrictions any tighter, and I don’t support making them any looser. It’s one of the very few issues where I’m more aligned with Democrats than Republicans. But I’m not blind. I can see how cynically Democrats distorted Youngkin’s plank. Banning abortion after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape and incest is NOT banning abortion altogether.

Unsurprisingly, the “progressive” mouthpieces that masquerade as independent media in Virginia declined to call the Dems on the distortions.

With control of both statehouses and the fourth estate, Democrats will be able to stymie Youngkin at every turn. He’ll be playing defense for the rest of his term. If Virginia Republicans want a prayer of winning the Governor’s Mansion two years from now, they had better start recalibrating their message and tactics. Now. Otherwise, we might as well adopt Neil Diamond’s classic, “Song Sung Blue,” as Virginia’s official state song.

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123 responses to “Song Sung Blue”

  1. Stanwood Avatar
    Stanwood

    When it comes to regulating abortion, Virginia voters don’t trust Republicans. Your national brand on this issue is toxic. It might have been possible to put this behind you by passing a bipartisan bill but arguably the bipartisan consensus in Virginia is simply the status quo. Nobody will give you much credit for doing nothing on abortion when you don’t have the power to do anything on abortion. So Virginia Dems are going to keep beating you over the head with this one.

    1. Stanwood Avatar
      Stanwood

      Without trust this is a distinction without a difference:

      Admittedly, it’s hard to know if the electorate really opposes Younkin’s 15-week abortion platform or it opposes an imagined total ban on abortion.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        When you hear the GOP and supporters say that abortion is about “messaging”,
        you KNOW what their position really is!

        They think it’s all about how they talk about it and if they talk about it “right”,
        folks will accept it.

        Talk about living in LA LA Land!

        They can’t seem to reconcile themselves to the reality of where the Dems are and no matter how they “message” it won’t change that!

        So, yes, when the GOP think it’s all about the message, “TRUST” gets to be THE issue!

        This goes back to whether the GOP actually wants to represent the voters or whether they want to tell the voters what should be done.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        They saw the video of Youngkin telling that young girl that he “couldn’t be honest” about his feelings on abortion, but that when elected he would take on the issue. Well, he lied once. Is “15 weeks” his honest stance, or a second bite at lying.

        Must not have learned as Carlyle Group co-CEO that credibility, once lost, is never found again.

  2. Not Today Avatar
    Not Today

    Some people need to be burned three, five, or seven times before they believe a stove is hot. Crime goes up when women are subjugated and unable to control their destinies (see stupid SCOTUS Bruen-Rahimi issues). Child poverty, maternal mortality/morbidity and infant mortality/morbidity go up when women are subjugated. Student achievement/learning suffers when births are forced. BIRTH RATES ARE DECLINING as Republicans seek to force procreation and birthing. There is no freedom without the ability to access contraceptive and compassionate reproductive care.

    1. killerhertz Avatar
      killerhertz

      So you are admitting that abortion is contraception? That’s effed up.

      1. Not Today Avatar
        Not Today

        Nice try. Use of long-acting and permanent forms of birth control, including vasectomy, are up.

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Especially in states where abortion law is stricter, apparently…

          “Staff at the clinic say more men are signing up for procedure because of the state’s political climate, with Governor Kevin Stitt vowing to make Oklahoma the most anti-abortion state in the country. Under current state laws, abortions are illegal after fertilization with very few exceptions.”

          https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12567135/planned-parenthood-free-vasectomy-oklahoma-city.html

  3. VaPragamtist Avatar
    VaPragamtist

    I oppose abortion at any point, except for cases of rape, incest, or threat to the mother’s life.

    That said, the only chance Republicans have on gaining any traction with this issue is to focus on the alternatives: access to adoption, early childhood education, realistic sex education, government assistance for low-income pregnant women, etc. Give women and families the resources to choose something other than abortion.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      I agree.

      If they actually did that…….. yes.

      but they are hostage to the Christian Right which does not support most of those things..

      Even birth control is opposed and as far as I
      can tell, few, if any GOP have come out and said they support birth control, sex education, support for women and children’s needs, etc.

      Youngkin could do that. He could stand up and say the things that VaPragamtist has said and make that case and probably win that way.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Life of the mother? How are you interpreting “life”? Is it only in opposition to death? Or does quality and health count?

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5575578/

  4. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    It was not an R vs. D issue, but I see the Richmond casino referendum got stomped.

    Again.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      They DID and so did the option for an elected school board in Hanover.

  5. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Posted on behalf of Robert Kaplan, of Richmond.

    While I am 100% Pro Life and would, if I had the power, criminalize abortion again. It is, simply put, from the moment of conception, the taking of a human life and should be subject to the criminal law just as would be a knifing or a shooting of an innocent, unsuspecting person after birth. That said, for any number of reasons, ours has become a culture of death, so pervasive that we see States that have authorized euthanasia, a medical profession that tolerates those who assist in sex-selection abortion and mutilation of boys and girls whose parents humor their offspring, who lack the maturity necessary to pour water out of a boot, and, finally, the countenancing of genocide on our campuses and in our streets.

    While I will try to convince my fellow Virginians, as long as the Lord gives me breath to do so and pray for an end to abortion and the contraceptive mentality, I recognize the political reality that what the Democrats recognized long ago: First, you have to win! And clearly, limiting abortion at the current time, and I suspect for the future that is foreseeable, is a pipe dream, I am morally bound not to vote for a pro-abort, if there is a prolife alternative. But as between two candidates for which there either is no difference on the issue or barely determinable light between them, I’m going for the fiscal and social conservative every time. Therefore, I largely agree with you, and in my view the GOP needs to be reformed to induce just such a response, rather than continuing to give the extreme wings of the party sway over the nominating process.

    Because one should not simply carp but try to make a useful suggestion to address the issue, I suggest we can start by abandoning the nominating convention circus, advocate for registration by party or as an independent and close the primaries, so registered Republicans get Republican ballots, and registered Dems get Dem ballots and cross-over voting, which viscerally I think is more a fear than a reality, would be prohibited. It appears that the Dem’s control over both Houses will be razor thin, which is a stark commentary on the national divide, but I believe even though it would be far from a panacea, had we had an enlightened nominating procedure, that divide may have broken for the GOP.

    1. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      Legal personhood for the embryo.fetus is an idiotic idea. More than 25% of pregnancies end in a miscarriage. Forcing pregnant women to register their pregnancies and having the government investigate miscarriages would turn Virginia and the U.S. into a deep blue state.

      One has to get past the idea of punishing women.

      1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        if Virginia is not already blue forever thanks to Repubs over-riding Roe v Wade.

      2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        if Virginia is not already blue forever thanks to Repubs over-riding Roe v Wade.

      3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        if Virginia is not already blue forever thanks to Repubs over-riding Roe v Wade.

      4. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        What about rich litte white girls going to Sweden? Equal protection under the law means rich embryo-people deserve the same protection as poor embryo-people.

        New Law: no unsupervised travel for pregnant, uh, persons!

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          uh.. what happened to freedom and rights?

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            For women? Really, you jest.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yep

      5. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        if Virginia is not already blue forever thanks to Repubs over-riding Roe v Wade.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Youngkin had the potential to be an exceptional governor had he stayed out of the abortion issue and culture wars…

          He just chose wrong perhaps with the help of some “advisors” who were more interested in partisan politics.

          He damaged his own brand IMO.

        2. killerhertz Avatar
          killerhertz

          It’s only turning blue because of Northern VA and government scope creep. This is obvious.

      6. killerhertz Avatar
        killerhertz

        Why not eliminate their right to vote?

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Does that include Social Security cards? How ‘bout women? Do we test ‘em for pregnancy before they, oh say, fly to Sweden and test ‘em on return? Can’t be murdering the little critters where it’s legal. Rich embyro-persons deserve protection too, ya know.

      But hey, it ain’t just abortion. How’d that school board takeover go?

  6. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Henrico House candidate Riley Shaia, through the whole campaign, was a pro-choice Republican. Her position, easy to find, was Virginia’s current law should not change either way. Which of course was why one of the ugliest ads of the campaign was directed at her, tagging her for being “bankrolled by MAGA extremists who want to ban abortion.” Her own views were never mentioned. After first appearing, the ad was recut and reappeared with Trump’s image added. Again, she had no connection to Trump except the R after her name. But guilt by association was enough. The ad ran all the way through Monday, lots of rating points.

    I’m not sure why she didn’t emphasize that she was out of step on the 15 week bill. I guess she was trapped as to do so undercut the Guv and Siobhan Dunnavant and all the others who were focused on it. Youngkin is real deal pro-life. The 15-week bill or a 20-week bill were efforts at compromise but this is now a third rail issue, deadly to touch. Experiment failed.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      There is an issue of “trust” with regard to the “messaging”.

      IOW , voters did not trust her nor the GOP messages of 15 weeks… when it’s obvious where
      many other GOP are on the issue and will move for more restrictions and the “15 week or less” folks will roll over – if they win the chamber.

      The GOP has zero credibility on abortion.

      1. Randy Huffman Avatar
        Randy Huffman

        How do you know that here in Virginia? That is pure conjecture.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          an opinion, yes. Not just in Va…. The GOP cannot be trusted on abortion… there is a LOT of evidence
          with regard to that. Even some in the GOP itself KNOW that if the GOP got control , there would be
          a lot of competing forces to make it much stricter, seen that in other states and at the national level.

          THe GOP portrays it as a “messaging” issue. Nope. It’s a real issue about what the GOP would actually
          do or not – entirely separate from how they talk about it.

          No one really trusts the GOP on this issue. THey don’t even know themselves until push comes
          to shove!

          conjecture? yes.. but probably dead on…

    2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
      f/k/a_tmtfairfax

      If I were a pro-choice Republican candidate and faced a false ad, I’d assemble a team with video cameras, go to the ad agency’s office and the ad’s sponsor’s office, and demand to speak to the person in charge to demand a retraction. Post the videos all over. As for non-pro-choice Republican candidates, surrender.

    3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      …also Trump, as crazy as he is, never thought banning abortion was a good political move. It is the Repubs themselves that insist on anti-social policies that lost the 2020 election for Trump and 2023 in Virginia.

  7. Donald Smith Avatar
    Donald Smith

    “The Virginia GOP needs to decide which is more important: abortion or…. taxes, government spending, jobs, crime, parental rights, public-sector unions, salvaging K-12, reforming higher ed, and every other issue they could make progress on if Democrats didn’t have the abortion issue to beat them with.”

    Yep. I’m sure lots of Virginia Republicans think of pro-choice supporters as wrong, even sinful. But their votes count, too.

    1. Nathan Avatar
      Nathan

      Youngkin’s proposal was in line with public sentiment on the issue, but Democrats successfully made Republicans look extreme anyway. The news media and social media played a large part in that.

      Support for Abortion Rights Varies by Trimester

      When asked about the legality of abortion at different stages of pregnancy, about two-thirds of Americans say it should be legal in the first trimester (69%), while support drops to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third. Majorities oppose abortion being legal in the second (55%) and third (70%) trimesters.

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspxdata%20center%20certification

    2. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      My very Republican mother who worshipped Reagan was rabidly opposed to restrictions on abortion.

      1. Randy Huffman Avatar
        Randy Huffman

        The Republican women I know generally fall into one of two camps (i) they strongly believe life begins at conception, or (ii) they believe abortion should be allowed up to a certain point. The number of weeks vary, but generally lets say its either side of 15 weeks. Most I know fall into the second camp (maybe that is convenient because they are our better friends and that is how my wife and I view it).

        Lets face it, this election is at an off year, I have no idea what the turnout was. But seems to me Larry and many others have effectively argued that Republicans would change their view on a dime and push through tougher restrictions if given a chance. The message Republican’s need to push is consistently they will not do that.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          pretty good evidence the GOP will say one thing and do another.

          That’s why the folks in Ohio and other states just said “no”.

          No govt should be telling a woman and her doctor what choices to make without regard to the specifics of that case.

          It’s arrogance and hubris on steroids IMO and driven by folks who claim to know “morals” and religion.

          The GOP will lose everytime on this issue – and it will be GOP women that help in
          that defeat and no amount of “messaging” will fix it.

          1. Randy Huffman Avatar
            Randy Huffman

            You say pretty good evidence, where?

            So while we are talking about opinions, my view is that for every Republican who wants a total ban on abortion, there is a Democrat who wants no restrictions, even if after viability. There are states at both extremes, and neither represents what the majority of people want.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Evidence? the fact that various states including Va moved to implement stricter abortion rules
            after Roe v wade was ruled on.

            re: ” for every Republican who wants a total ban on abortion, there is a Democrat who wants no restrictions, even if after viability.”

            the evidence is that few Dems have actually tried to make less restrictive after roe was done away with but the GOP HAS moved to make it more restrictive.

            The Dems, for the most part have been happy to leave it where Roe v Wade was but not the GOP.

            In Va, the Dems were fine with Roe v Wade

            and Roe V Wade IS a middle ground anyhow… it’s not an unreasonable standard!

            but it’s obvious that the GOP wants more restrictions …

            AND were going to do them had they won – apparently without regard to how voters felt as long as they could convince them to vote for them anyhow.

            That does NOT engender trust.

            THe GOP has to free themselves of the far right on issues like this and seek some genuine middle ground that the voters agree with , NOT what the GOP calls a middle ground!

          3. Randy Huffman Avatar
            Randy Huffman

            I don’t think its that simple, this article shows a large number of Democrat’s want to go further.

            https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-want-restore-rights-roe-v-wade-differ-means-rcna104909

            The above article says most people support Rowe (viability, say 23-24 weeks), but Gallup says the majority want restrictions in place after the first trimester (where exactly that falls is up to debate).

            https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx

            you say the GOP is untrustworthy on the issue and I disagree with deep red states who have passed bans. I say Democrats are equally as untrustworthy, they just have the power of the press behind them and better messaging

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The Dems are much more willing to compromise and are right now as most (like in Va) do support Roe.
            The GOP is not at all. Tell me how many Dem states have worked to lessen restrictions compared to
            GOP states to tighten them?

            The Dems are pretty up front about it. The GOP is not and the 15-week limit proposed by Youngkin
            was not believed by voters.. they were not buying it and it cost him the GA.

            He COULD have made it a firm pledge and that he’d veto anything stricter AND he would advocate
            FOR birth control and sex ed and help for moms and kids… but he did not..

          5. Randy Huffman Avatar
            Randy Huffman

            Sorry, I could continue to argue but we are in total different places so will not. I simply disagree with your assertions about Youngkin, and your general claim Democrats are more willing to compromise, and will leave it at that.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yep. If Youngkin had said “I support Roe v Wade” , he would have won!

      2. Nathan Avatar
        Nathan

        Views on abortion weren’t always so clearly cut between the parties.

        What happened to “safe, legal, and rare”?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          what happened to Roe v Wade which most Dems including Virginians were fine with until the GOP decided otherwise?

          1. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            Liking Roe v Wade didn’t magically write abortion into the Constitution. That would have required a Constitutional Amendment. The overturning of Roe v Wade just put the issue where it belongs, which is with our elected representatives passing (or repealing) laws.

            There are numerous issues that the citizenry likes or dislikes. Public opinion alone isn’t sufficient for courts to overrule laws . Court decisions should be based on laws and the Constitution (as written and amended), not popular opinion polls.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Nothing was required other than abiding by the restrictions established in Roe v Wade.

            The Dems were fine with that.

            it could have easily been more officially enshrined to keep it the way it was.

            It was the GOP that did not
            want to do that and insisted on more restrictions.

            AND they lied about it AND claimed that Dems wanted less restrictions (most Dems did not and were fine with it the way it was in Roe v Wade) AND the GOP started calling Dems baby killers and such and greatly misrepresented the issue in general.

            That’s WHY the GOP is NOT trusted on the issue.

            That’s what the voters just said!

            The ball is in the GOP court and so far they are blathering about their “messaging”… not real changes to their actual position.

          3. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            Kermit Gosnell is an American former physician and serial killer. That’s what can happen under “Whatever the mother and her doctor decide.”

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            like something like that can’t happen anyhow in other situations? Good Grief guy! This is
            how the GOP blows itself up on issues!

        2. vicnicholls Avatar
          vicnicholls

          No morals Americans.

          1. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            I sometimes think young voters are victims of Stockholm syndrome. Secular and twisted moral views are ubiquitous these days.

    3. Nathan Avatar
      Nathan

      Youngkin’s proposal was in line with public sentiment on the issue, but Democrats successfully made Republicans look extreme anyway. The news media and social media played a large part in that.

      Support for Abortion Rights Varies by Trimester

      When asked about the legality of abortion at different stages of pregnancy, about two-thirds of Americans say it should be legal in the first trimester (69%), while support drops to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third. Majorities oppose abortion being legal in the second (55%) and third (70%) trimesters.

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspxdata%20center%20certification

      1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Women do not agree with that…they want control of their bodies, not Republican men telling them what they allowed to do with their bodies. Women are 51% of USA population and every one will vote against that 100% turnout. So you will be blown away with that logic in the booth. I’ve been saying this here, but I shut up last week or 10-days not knowing if I was correct outside of NoVA.

      2. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        No, Democrats simply said the Republicans are lying. They accused them of lying about the 15-week bill and said it was just a stalking horse for their real intentions. And enough voters agreed with that. It didn’t help that some R candidates foolishly got audio taped by sneak advocates talking about doing something more restrictive. Haner….first law…fatal wounds.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          well no, they don’t “think” they’re lying, they have some real evidence!

          It’s clear, the GOP is hostage to their Christian base on this – between a rock and a hard place and so they CHOOSE to think they can “message” their way out of it with the Dems.

          Geeze, how many different ways from Sunday, can it be for the GOP to continue to be in denial about what they say and what they do on abortion!

          You cannot trust them with a 10 foot POLE!

        2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
          energyNOW_Fan

          exactly …there is now a permanant need to never give Repubs a hold on Va. GA as we know the first they will do is ban abortion. So we are stuck with EV mandates.

        3. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          Perhaps so.

          “Haner….first law…fatal wounds”

          Susanna Gibson lost, but narrowly. Democrats seem more able to recover, at least in my view.

        4. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
          energyNOW_Fan

          exactly …there is now a permanant need to never give Repubs a hold on Va. GA as we know the first they will do is ban abortion. So we are stuck with EV mandates.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Nah. You’ll survive 21st century technology far better than 15th century chauvinism.

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Just hope that 1950s Dominion power grid can handle the 21st century technology. It performed so admirably during the last major snowstorm.

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Just hope that 1950s Dominion power grid can handle the 21st century technology. It performed so admirably during the last major snowstorm.

          4. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Better than some. Innovator’s Dilemma.

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I live in a rural area 5 miles from the substation, line is all overhead (except for the last 300 feet to my house), power company is NOVEC, my power didn’t so much as flicker during that snowstorm last January.

            My brother lives near Central Park in Fredericksburg. His power went out for 4 days. His power company is Dominion. I have no idea where the substation that serves his house is or how much of the line is overhead, but what’s in his neighborhood is all underground.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Are you talking about the ice storm that took down I-95 and many places from NoVa to Richmond?

            I’m on REC and we were out for 3-4 days.. You could not even go on the roads.. trees down everywhere.

            When you say “rural” , I have to wonder if it’s the kind of “rural” like we have in Spotsy!

            We’re about 1000 feet from a major powerline that they upgrade to steel, higher and wider right-of-way but that ice storm took down too much other stuff…

            If your brother lives on “River Road” which is near Central Park but is difficult terrain.. not surprised he was out also but pretty sure CP itself was back up fairly quickly… the restaurants were mobbed by folks whose homes were out!

          7. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            He lives near the Northern Tool on Route 3. As far as how “rural” is “rural”, I’m probably 5 miles from the nearest public water and sewer, gas station, and grocery store. More cows than people live on my road.

            I’ve heard that Dominion’s choice to use 35kV primary distribution allows them to put the substation as far as 30 miles from the customer…but that means that a primary distribution line failure affects MANY more customers than utilities like NOVEC that use a 12.4kV primary distribution voltage and have the substation at most 10 miles from their customer. (Transmission lines feeding the substation are rarely affected by weather. The substation converts transmission line voltage of say 115kV or 230kV to distribution line voltage of 35kV or 12.4kV). (Secondary distribution is 120/240V after the transformer closest to the customer).

            EDIT: Primary distribution voltages noted here are phase-to-phase, not phase-to-neutral.

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I’m five miles from store also but there is much more rural in Spotsy than that and it abuts Caroline and Louisa and guarantee that “rural” is way more than my “rural”! I’m largely ignorant of the transmission line stuff you’re citing. I’m pretty sure we are less than 10 miles from a substation but the road between us and that substation had so many trees down… it took days to clear the road just so the crews
            could get to some of the powerlines. Isn’t this that ice storm of a few years back?

          9. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Last January there was a major snow/ice storm that knocked out power for a few days to lots of customers.

            Other part of the issue is that Dominion doesn’t seem to trim trees on their right of way as much as they need to, to prevent outages.

          10. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            isn’t that the one that stranded folks on I-95 including Kaine and others?

          11. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That’s the one. It’s also the one that knocked out the VDOT cameras on I95 because they didn’t have any backup power. Ooops.

          12. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            so.. not exactly a benign thing that NoVec easily dealt with? I suspect ya’ll had it easier than others, not that Novec was so much better… Most all of our roads, secondary and primary were closed due to trees
            down.. not because Dominion (or REC) was sloth.

          13. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            It also helps that my substation is so close. If it were 30 miles away, that’s a lot more exposure to damage.

          14. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            doesn’t it also depend on the towers for the powerlines? Ours were upgrade to steel and made much
            higher… there is no way any trees can get to them.. but I’m sure there are places that come off these
            lines to lower lines more vulnerable to trees. I see REC out cutting back tree limbs and stuff on the
            lines that follow the secondary roads. It’s those lines that got whacked during the storm and even
            REC could not get to them because of so many other trees on the roads.

            this is the kind of thing we were dealing with – one of these every couple hundred yards or so:

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/87f9db32800c9ba420a699969092fd751d8de46bc22669b12ae197fc3f49c312.png

          15. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Here’s a view of the NOVEC right-of-way for the lines from the substation that feeds the area where I live. Notice that it is kept free of vegetation:

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/372f8670d94b5151cd5085e813dcbbb37934273486770f949ce2c837e3df071f.png

          16. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            this is what we have near us:

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b7a07ae60f497584521ab926aeccbb979766a1a849048e491c4a7711d74ef7e.png

            but then they feed lower lines along the secondary roads.

          17. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Those are transmission lines that feed substations. The lines from the substation that feed the transformer near your house are what is vulnerable to the weather, and look much more like the picture I posted. That’s probably a 230kV line, by the way.

          18. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            okay… so major line?

            the substation is 2 miles as the crow flies:
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a37f4ab9866f436615516c889f7d4f5947d27b310440649572e5f7baa5534a5a.png

          19. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Yes, that is a “transmission line”. Transmission lines connect power plants to substations (and in some cases to large power customers, like industrial factories and large data centers). “Distribution lines” connect substations to customers. So, from the power plant to your house it might go as follows:

            Power plant -> transmission line on tall steel (usually) or wood (sometimes) poles (115 or 230kV) -> substation -> primary distribution line on shorter wood poles, sometimes steel (12.4kV or 35kV) -> transformer near your house -> secondary distribution line (120/240V) -> your house.

            Note that the voltages for the transmission and primary distribution lines could be different but these seem to be the most common in this area. Also the secondary distribution lines are typically not more than a few hundred feet long and may only service one customer; the max I’ve ever seen is 12 (on one transformer) and that was in an old neighborhood from the 60s which has since been upgraded so there are only 4 customers per transformer.

            It’s called a “primary distribution line” because it connects to the “primary” of the transformer. A “secondary distribution line” is connect to the secondary of the transformer. Because it’s a “step down” transformer, it converts the high 12.4kV or 35kV of the primary to the low 120/240V of the secondary.

            Also, sometimes, it’s kind of rare, you can find transmission lines and distribution lines on the SAME pole. This is the case on 28 between about Manassas Drive and the Fairfax County Line, if you want to see it with Google Street View. They are tall steel poles.

          20. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I have no idea. Our power is underground. We don’t have lines anywhere. And we are about 15 miles from North Anna. If I zoom in close enough to see the lines, it would take forever to follow the path to
            North Anna.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea83d3013036010f87cd4f8a1e3bb2304b6a498cfa2f3a66c9fe0f82181d6fe9.png

          21. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            It’s pretty common for distribution lines to be underground. It is VERY uncommon for transmission lines to be underground (that presents a lot of technical challenges that makes it very expensive to underground them).

            https://openinframap.org/ the Open Infrastructure Map has most, of not all, of the transmission lines on it.

          22. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            also on that same line is 5000 acres of solar panel:

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/74e251d3b069efce629d046c3cb83970c85557050f09484401e4ed7e35840859.png

          23. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Not really, there were power outages in Northern VA:

            https://www.alxnow.com/2022/01/03/power-outage-hits-north-ridge-neighborhood-as-weather-topples-trees-and-power-lines/

            “VIRGINIA — The snowstorm that swept across Virginia on Monday caused power outages across the state, with some customers expected to be without power for days.

            Dominion Energy, the largest electric utility in Virginia, is reporting that more than 100,000 customers were still without power as of 5 p.m. Tuesday. In many cases, the heavy, wet snow caused trees to collapse onto power lines.

            “We encourage those in the hardest hit areas, including Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Northern Virginia and Richmond to prepare for the possibility of being without power for multiple days,” Dominion Energy said.”

          24. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I think it was pretty much a weather-related disaster.. not VDOT, not Dominion, Not REC and others were able to overcome it quickly. Our “box” was essentially the entire county, plus almost all roads including I-95. Sheriffs office was advising that even rescue squad could not get to folks. We had citizens with
            their own chainsaws trying to open up the roads. It was EPIC! Even the cell towers went down – because they had no grid power and they used up their backup gen fuel.

          25. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Yes, but the point of trimming trees in the right of way is to PREVENT a wet, heavy snow from knocking them down into power lines. Planning and foresight. Planning and foresight. A stitch in time saves 9.

          26. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            well yeah.. but when there are so many they’re coming down on the secondary roads… does
            that still hold true? Are you thinking that separate from the roads, the power lines ought to
            be less vulnerable, more resilient? Because even the power crews could not get to the downed
            lines…right?

          27. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            You’d NEVER see something like this with https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3224a9ef666b1f09e25d936ea54442fc3709a7d6c0bd1f442c80c5bc6263d2a0.png with NOVEC. This is a Dominion line. Can you see all the trees around it? Better question: Can you see the Dominion line almost hidden by the trees?

          28. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            we got them down this way also… probably a lot more of it because many REC lines follow
            the secondary roads… and the trees are right up at the shoulders.

        5. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          That’s because of your national brand. Even if YOU said you’d stop at 15 weeks, I wouldn’t believe it. Why should I?

          Thomas said in as many words, “contraceptives and gays are next.”

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            and Haner KNOWS THIS !

            The GOP stance on abortion is:

            SMOKE and Mirrors!

            Proverbial carnival barkers they are on the abortion issue!

          2. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            It’s also possible, unlike those at BR, that many Republicans and Independents don’t like what Republican legislators do… ya know, not just abortion, but gerrymandering and passing laws that allow for overturning elections. Like NC, for example.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yes and Eric pointed out the Culture Wars and agree.

            But the abortion thing really illustrates whether they will listen to voters , to actually represent the voters or they view the voters as something they tell what needs to be done (with help from the Christian Right).

            Nowhere is it more clear on that than on the abortion issue IMO.

            It would be EASY for the GOP to advocate in the same breadth as “abortion”, birth control, sex ed, pre-natal support, support for the mom and child after born (like child care for workers)
            but instead they CHOOSE to focus on the one thing – restrictions and bans alone.

          4. Stephen Haner Avatar
            Stephen Haner

            NO Democrat EVER drew up a gerrymander map. HAHAHAHA Including racial gerrymanders!

          5. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Not like that in North Carolina and some other red states where the popular vote is 60% Democrat and the representatives are 60% Republican.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yeah.. noticed that also.. how can that be?

            WHY should that be?

          7. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Magic Christians.

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Well yes, they have !

            BUT, typically, they DO try to do what voters want as opposed to telling voters what they should want!

            Why can’t Youngkin and company put together a comprehensive approach to abortion that includes birth control, sex ed, and child and mom care .. it would WIN!

            The GOP would WIN!

            WHy do they have to be such nincompoops on this?

          9. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            I mean they used the VA Supreme Court to draw lines this time that favored them, that was pointed out in 2020.

            https://www.mwcllc.com/ideas/updates/articles/2022/1/virginia-redistricting-map-impact

      3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Women do not agree with that…they want control of their bodies, not Republican men telling them what they allowed to do with their bodies. Women are 51% of USA population and every one will vote against that 100% turnout. So you will be blown away with that logic in the booth. I’ve been saying this here, but I shut up last week or 10-days not knowing if I was correct outside of NoVA.

        1. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          Women are divided on the issue. See Gallup results below. (The mix of who shows up to vote in off year elections may be different, however.)

          Women’s Views on Legality of Abortion
          -Gallup 2013

          -Legal under certain circumstances = 45%

          -Legal under any = 40%

          – Illegal in all = 15%

          https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx

        2. vicnicholls Avatar
          vicnicholls

          Not all women are for it.

        3. Nathan Avatar
          Nathan

          Women are divided on the issue. See Gallup results below. (The mix of who shows up to vote in off year elections may be different, however.)

          Women’s Views on Legality of Abortion
          -Gallup 2013

          -Legal under certain circumstances = 45%

          -Legal under any = 40%

          – Illegal in all = 15%

          https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            the polls are fine until the elections, then the elections ought to be considered also.

            Don’t you think the elections held yesterday tell you something about the abortion issue – both men and women?

          2. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            The Democrat narrative was that Republicans would ban all abortions if they won both Houses. That was a clear lie that apparently many fell for. American majorities oppose unrestricted abortions in the second and third trimesters. I suspect Virginia voters hold similar views.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Well, they said that the GOP would TRY to do what they had tried or actually done in other states.

            Plenty of fodder there.

            THe GOP could have said: “we support Roe v Wade” and anyone who says different is lying
            and it would have become a non-issue even if there were some far left crazies not happy.
            The GOP CHOSE to MAKE this poop and then stepped in it. That’s where the blame goes.

            Youngkin could have become a legitimate national leader!

          4. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            The GOP did not/does not support Roe v Wade, so they should not have said so. When Democrats said that the GOP would ban all abortions, they were clearly lying. Yes, Republicans did not do a good job of showing that they were lying. On the other hand, many Democrat candidates were on record as opposing any restrictions whatsoever, i.e. up until the moment of birth. Although never tested that I know of in Virginia, at the national level Democrats have voted against “born-alive” bills.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The question might be why the GOP does not support Roe v Wade to start with. Most Dems for
            decades were fine with it even if some crazies were not.

            I never heard nmany Dems say the GOP would ban all.. but it was not hard at all to see what the GOP in other states were doing and that alone was enough to lose votes for the GOP.

            Claims that Dems want no restrictions when there are no legislative proposals to do so compared to what the GOP would do and there ARE legislative proposals… no contest.

            When you’re “talking” like Youngkin was and hemnever took a firm stand, i.e. would veto anything stricter… people know it’s not a firm promise and have no faith at all what a GOP GA would reall do.

          6. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            The reason why the GOP did not support Roe v Wade is simply that it took an issue under the jurisdiction of the states and put it under the purview of the national government, a determination that was found to be Constitutionally unfounded. If you lived in the 65th HD and 27th SD, you would have seen many ads claiming the GOP would ban all abortions. I can guarantee there were many more. If there were an open, honest, transparent debate on abortion restrictions, polling shows that the GOP positions are closer to the majority of Americans, and probably Virginians, than to the Democrat position.

          7. Nathan Avatar
            Nathan

            I am personally repulsed by elective abortions as a means of birth control. In modern times, there are much better ways for responsible people to prevent pregnancies.

            But I also wish Republicans wouldn’t commit electoral suicide over the issue. If this election gets that point home, yesterday’s losses may be worth it in the long run.

          8. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
            energyNOW_Fan

            …suicide has just been done.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            It’s not like the GOP can do nothing.. they can and should but it would make them less
            captured by the Christian right.

            It’s pretty bad when a majority of GOP is captured by the Christian Right and DJT and boots people like Liz Cheney and other moderate GOP , calls the other squishs and RINOs and disowns folks like Ronald Reagan and Bush.

          10. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
            energyNOW_Fan

            That probably why BigOil is sucking up to Democrat demands to consider CO2 as enemy No-1 …there is no prospect of help from conservatives who have abortion and gun rights issues problems.

          11. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            or perhaps BigOil has some climate change believers?

            Conservatives keep yelling that Dems have gone “left”. I beg to differ. That’s a purposeful
            distraction as the GOP continues to track right, dumping folks like Cheny, disowning Reagan and
            Bush and loving the hard right… on issues like abortion and gun rights. It’s their own weapon
            blowing off their own feet!

          12. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I am also repulsed.

            And the GOP could fix this with real positions on birth control, sex ed, care for woman and children.

            There’s middle ground there.

      4. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        Youngkin proposal was just a proposal. Everyone knows that anytime the Republicans hit the trifecta in state government, either abortion is banned outright or there is a six week ban which is an effective ban on all abortions. In addition, the idiot Republicans in places like Idaho or Texas wanting to punish women who leave the state to get an abortion does not help Youngkin proposals look realistic.

  8. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    What’s worse than a sore loser? A sore loser who blames the winner.

    “You put very sexy things like abortion and marijuana on the ballot, and a lot of young people come out and vote. It was a secret sauce for disaster in Ohio,” Santorum whined Tuesday night on Newsmax.

    Sexy? Abortion is sexy? Hmmmm.

    “We can’t give in to the idea that the federal Congress has no role in this, because if it doesn’t, then the pro-life movement is basically not going to exist.” — J. D. Vance

    Wait. Wasn’t Dobbs about States’ Rights? So, Roe was bad because pro-life needed States’ Rights but when Va and Ohio didn’t quite do it… one of you smart BR readers help me here…

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Don’t try to make sense of the GOP “strategy” other than “whatever works”!

      If they ever focused on what voters want, they’d be actually dangerous!

  9. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Must read…
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/10/abortion-history-right-white-evangelical-1970s-00031480

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: ” Despite this history, the abortion myth persists, stoked repeatedly by the leaders of the Religious Right.”

      huh?

      Okay… so I’d like to read some other “history” from other folks… to see if this view is predominate. He IS a legitimate prof of religious history and there are others (from quick google) who affirm the history he relates.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Some supporting documentation… https://www.johnstonsarchive.net/baptist/sbcabres.html

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          yup. The history is pretty clear. Today is clearly different IMO. There ARE pro-life Dems, for sure. What about this: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/09/anti-abortion-movement-donald-trump/675410/

        2. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          https://www.axios.com/2023/11/09/abortion-rights-law-election-results-republicans-democrats

          Thing is… if it’s true that it’s truly a myth, all the GOP has to do is say so and get out of it.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Ohh, no. When the myth (legend) becomes the fact, print the legend (myth). Too late now. Unless they find the body…

        3. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          https://www.axios.com/2023/11/09/abortion-rights-law-election-results-republicans-democrats

          Thing is… if it’s true that it’s truly a myth, all the GOP has to do is say so and get out of it.

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