Six-Year Improvement Program: a Blueprint for Failure

blueprintby James A. Bacon

With the adoption of the new Six-Year Improvement Program, the details of Governor Bob McDonnell’s transportation priorities plan are coming into clearer focus. There are some worthy elements to the plan but glaring deficiencies guarantee that Virginia will see minimal benefit from the billions of dollars dedicated to new construction.

On the positive side of the ledger, it is heartening to see that Virginia will get serious about meeting its statutory maintenance obligations. The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) will spend an estimated $2.3 billion over the next six years to rehabilitate aging bridges. Roughly one in eleven bridges in the state is rated “structurally deficient.” (See “Bad Bridges” for details). VDOT also will dedicate 25% of its formula revenues to repairing deteriorating pavement on state interstates and primary roads. (It’s not clear from published reports, however, whether this work will address the aging sub-structure of these roads, which account for much of the deterioration.)

Second, VDOT will apply 5% of formula revenue to “smart roadway” projects, which will utilize sensors, video, wireless communication, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies to do a better job of synchronizing traffic signals, clearing accidents and communicating information to drivers. If executed properly, these investments can increase the capacity of existing traffic arteries at significantly lower cost than constructing more lanes.

On the other hand…. Stewart Schwartz, executive director for the Coalition for Smarter Growth, sums up the negatives in a press release issued yesterday after the Commonwealth Transportation Board meeting:

“We are shocked by the lack of discussion of the spending priorities in the Six-Year Plan, by the failure to tie the program to specific policy goals, and the assumption that simply adding road capacity will solve our transportation problems.  The plan includes a number of wasteful mega-projects that have been strongly criticized as unnecessary including Route 460 ($1.4 billion), the Coalfields Expressway ($2.8 billion), Charlottesville Bypass ($244 million), N-S Corridor ($1 billion plus), and a long range $11.4 billion plan for I-81.

The CTB doesn’t understand the benefits of more efficient land use – of cities, towns, and compact transit-oriented development —  along with transportation demand management programs (carpooling, telecommuting etc), that reduce driving demand.  They don’t understand changing demographics and market demand that have led to big declines in vehicle miles traveled.  The plan includes just 9% of the total for transit even though 69% of the state population lives in the Urban Crescent.

In short, we believe this program will be remembered for squandering billions of tax dollars while making Virginia’s patterns of development less efficient, more oil dependent and less competitive.”

I couldn’t have said it better. My only point of difference with Stewart is that I have no faith that the extra $500 million allocated to rail and public transportation (bringing the total to $2.9 billion) will be spent any more effectively than the money dedicated to roads. When funding decisions are based upon politics rather than objective Return on Investment analysis, the potential exists for rail and public transit projects to be every bit as wasteful as road projects.

Virginia’s decision-making process for allocating transportation dollars is a mess. It is bureaucratic, cumbersome and lengthy. Once projects make it into the pipeline, they rarely get re-evaluated in the light of changing travel trends or market conditions. The CTB exercises no independent review over the priorities handed down by the McDonnell administration. Functioning as regional advocates and conduits of information to the administration, CTB representatives do their most important  work behind the scenes. By the time projects are formally reviewed during CTB meetings, the decisions have already been made. Additionally, there are major transparency issues associated with Public Private Partnership mega-projects. The need for confidentiality when the state negotiates with private-sector partners conflicts with the need for public disclosure before the final deal has been struck.

The McDonnell administration has made no effort whatsoever to address these process issues. It has made no effort to re-evaluate projects in the funding pipeline in the light of new demographic, travel and development trends. And it has made no effort to better align transportation planning and land-use planning. The entire approach has been marked by spending as much money as possible to build as many projects as possible. Bottom line: The McDonnell administration has borrowed billions of dollars and raised our taxes in order to pour more money into a broken system.


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8 responses to “Six-Year Improvement Program: a Blueprint for Failure”

  1. Breckinridge Avatar
    Breckinridge

    How nice to get back to the old argument. The process leading up to the annual adoption of the six year plan actually is quite extensive and includes many opportunities for public input. The localities chime in, the regional MPO’s chime in, the special interest groups (whether the Sierra Club or the bicycle enthusiasts) all get to chime in. If individual legislators want something they are not shy about letting the Governor or the Secretary know, and if there are some political deals from time to time, well, who would be shocked? You think some of those projects on the list were traded for votes on HB 2313? It is not very transparent, but it is very political. And that can be a good thing.

    To a large degree, the system we get is in response to somebody’s wishes and desires. It meets somebody’s preferences. The Transportation Communists obviously know what we all need, what would be best for us, but the popular will (even for things that may not be good for us) usually prevails. People like getting in their cars and getting from point a to point b without congestion, and people like working one place and living 25 miles away.

    The Route 460 PPTA is tied to a valid, if risky, long term vision for the entire port region. The Coalfields Expressway is a largely political project for an area of the state where public pork buys the vote (why else would Dominion build a power plant that far from its service area?). I can’t defend the Charlottesville Bypass but certainly somebody wants it. And a long term plan for I-81 makes total sense to me, along as its multimodal and continues pushing more freight onto the rails.

    You just don’t LIKE the plan. You and Schwartz lost the arguments. Keep trying. But don’t whine just because you lost.

    1. “To a large degree, the system we get is in response to somebody’s wishes and desires.”

      That’s very true. But *whose* wishes and desires? When it comes to getting their wishes and desires fulfilled, some people seem to have a lot more clout than others.

    2. “Don’t whine just because you lost.”

      Who’s whining? I call it eviscerating.

  2. Breckinridge Avatar
    Breckinridge

    Surely you are not just now figuring out that “some people seem to have a lot more clout than others.” THAT statement most definitely qualifies as a whine!

    Usually it doesn’t take too much digging to find out who is pushing for this or that particular project, but your overall beef is with the overall problem. People want a job in the city and house in the green leafy ‘burbs, not really understanding (or caring) that the lower real estate price is offset by the transportation costs. Businesses will ship by the lowest cost and most efficient method, and that remains by truck in a large number of cases, in large part because roads are more subsidized than rail or barge. This is all rational behavior.

  3. larryg Avatar

    The folks who commute from the exurbs to NoVa as well as the folks who commute to work in HRTW – want more lanes, more tunnels and no increased taxes or tolls.

    That’s the “ideal” six year plan to many.

    projects for their region … but no additional taxes or tolls.

    If someone really wants an ROI methodology – I think complaining about the state or VDOT not doing it – is not very realistic.

    If you want an ROI methodology -you have to develop it and put it on the table and THEN , VDOT will respond to it.!

  4. Here’s the rule of thumb for induced traffic…

    Every time you increase capacity 10 percent, you get an immediate increase in traffic of 4 percent and then, within a short period of time (generally five years), you’ve increased traffic 10 percent — or the entire new capacity.

    One study of Texas Transportation Institute “congestion” studies over 15 years compared construction budgets with TTI’s research and determined that those areas which try to build their way out of congestion spent $22 billion (YES, with a B) more and ended up with slightly worse congestion.

    The Commission in the Future of transportation in Virginia called it a “futile exercise” to attempt to build your way out of congestion.

    When they built the Capitol Beltway, within two months it was carrying as much traffic as VDOT had predicted for 20 years.

    There is a better way but McDonnell, et al, refuse to bring their brains and actually LEAD. Instead, it’s just easier to go along with the self-involvement of we, the drivers, who don’t have the time/desire/ to do indepth research.

    When you build more roadway capacity, you get more traffic. Bottom line.

  5. […] Six-Year Improvement Program: A Blueprint for Failure Bacon’s Rebellion (VA) – June 20, 2013 “We are shocked by the lack of discussion of the spending priorities in the Six-Year Plan, by the failure to tie the program to specific policy goals, and the assumption that simply adding road capacity will solve our transportation problems.” […]

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