Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Simpson on Rail to Dulles: No More “Illusion and Delusion”

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Federal Transit Administrator James S. Simpson is taking a lot of heat for turning down federal funding for the Rail-to-Dulles heavy rail project. Critics now are accusing the Bush administration of undermining support for mass transit.

There was a huge concern that the Dulles issue is not unique to this region, that this is an effort on the part of the administration to re-channel funding to other directions,” said Washington Metro General Manger John Catoe, according to the Associated Press.

But Simpson is not backing off his decision. In fact, he’s taken off his boxing gloves and seems ready for some bare-fisted brawling. Northern Virginia ought to stop waiting for “the federal dole,” he said. “The jurisdictions can’t wait for a wing and a prayer for Congress to pass something.”

“Maryland, Virginia and D.C. need to step up to the plate and take care of the state of good repair,” he said, referring to the massive maintenance liabilities the Washington Metro has built up over the years. Adding to a system without being able to take care of what it already has is irresponsible, he told AP. “It’s like the subprime mentality — people don’t care what things really cost.”

Said Simpson: “What this administration is all about is being practical in making investments and not using delusion and illusion to push a mega-project through.”

Sign that man up as a columnist for Bacon’s Rebellion!

For the record: I totally support the concept of heavy rail in the Dulles corridor. But I believe the project as currently conceived is a disaster. The Kaine administration and Fairfax County need to radically re-think the financing of the project and the optimum land uses around proposed Metro stops, then start over.

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  1. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    I agree that the project was a mess. However, the legitimate question remains – Why did it take so long for this rift between the feds and state / local to “come to light”?

    As little regard as I have for Virginia’s state government, I can just hear the echo of a sentence ringing in my ears:

    “You’re doin’ a heck of a job Brownie”.

    From WMD in Iraq to Hurricane Katrina the Bush Administration has proven its incompetence over and over again.

    Is it possible we’ll soon be hearing:

    “You’re doin’ a heck of a job Simpson”.

    D’oh.

  2. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I wholeheartedly agree with what Simpson is saying but I also agree with Groveton.

    This is not the last verse of a song with 10 verses already sung.

    this is different and it’s the same old CRAP of being NOT HONEST about what is really at issue although the irony about transparency is rich because now.. not just the public is in the dark but also the officials who thought they had a done deal -kept out of the public’s eye.. so turn about is fair play – right?

    And one major caveat.

    All this talk about Public-Private Partnerships for roads .. letting the private sector “do” transportation is just as bogus for roads because now we know that the so-called “Private Venture” for the HOT lanes is financed by the same Feds who are saying that Dulles Metro should not be done on the public dole.

    Is Wilson Bridge, the Springfield Interchange, the ICC and HOT lanes “on the public dole” also?

  3. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Larry, a point of clarification: In Rail for Dulles, the feds would have paid $900 million in cash. In the HOT lanes, the feds will guarantee loans of several hundred million dollars. I’m not defending federal loan guarantees — they are an implicit subsidy. But they’re quite different from laying down hard, cold cash.

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What about highway building? Which is the worst long term investment possible!

    The Feds finnace those all day long! And there the cost share is 80% federal and 20% state.

    Here the cost share is reversed! Its a no brainer to approve such a project.

    The FTA rejected the proposal based on politics and the fact that they want oil-based solutions that use highways (like bus rapid transit)

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    10:49, with all due respect, either you own land at Tysons or you are not familar with the project at all. Dulles Rail has long since stopped being about transportation and has become a vehicle for granting massive increases in density. Those increases, in turn, will result in huge increases in automobile and truck traffic.

    TMT

  6. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: cold hard cash verses financing subsidies

    agree…

    so .. is the “compromise” from FTA going to be that they’ll agree to 900 million of TIFIA financing?

    🙂

    I still think there is a double standard here because there IS a process for cost-effectiveness for transit (no matter whether one feels it is right, wrong or red) and yet the Feds throw money around for roads without a similar process.

    Did the Feds ask the question: “what is the most cost-effective use of Fed dollars for Wilson Bridge?”

    If they did – the answer might have come back – TOLLS – paid for by those that use the bridge – not people that live in Kansas who were told that they’d not get back all they paid.. because it went for another project in the DC area.

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “What about highway building? Which is the worst long term investment possible!”

    Building a highway isn’t always the worst long term investment possible, and builing more Metro isn’t always the best.

    If you start the process with the illusion and delusion that roads are always bad and metro is always good, then you are not helping the situation.

    One illusion and delusion leads to another.

    A $5 billion dollar bad expenditure on metro is just as bad as a $5 billion dollar bad expenditure on a road. Maybe worse, because the operating expenses are higher.

    I think there is a difference between road projects being on the public dole and metro being on the public dole. The difference being that nearly everyone uses roads.

    With roads the problem is that some use more than others, some pay more than others, and some locations get more than others. But, nearly everyone uses roads and nearly all roads are shared freely.

    You could look at Metro as a special case of some people pay more than others, some use more than others, and some locations get more than others.

    Larry’s right. It isn’t any different than roads being on the public dole.

    We are kidding ourselves getting wrapped up in value laden words like “dole” or “subsidy”. When it comes to public money, the question ought to be is the public getting its money’s worth, not how the money is characterized.

    It should not be “Am I getting out personally what I paid in?”

    Ideally, it will be true that the public is getting value and so is the individual. But you can never have the second without the first.

    So you might as well set out to do at least that, without illusion or delusion.

    RH

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “not people that live in Kansas who were told that they’d not get back all they paid.. because it went for another project in the DC area.”

    This is just silly.

    Aren’t the people in Kansas paying for Metro, too?

    Did someone go out there and run a poll asking if they prefer thier kansas dollars to go for a road in DC or for Metro in DC?

    Would we rather the feds spent the money for the Wilson bridge in Iraq? Is that more cost effective?

    Ideally you WOULD have a rank of all your projects, start at the top and spend till you run out of money.

    Maybe the Feds should hire someone in Kansas to work on that. And pay them with our money.

    ————————

    The question is does the cost spent on the bridge result in a net social benefit, all things considered.

    The question is does the money spent on Metro result in a net social benefit, all things considered.

    Not just the things Larry wants considered, and not just at the price he prefers. ALL things considered, equally.

    RH

  9. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “The question is does the cost spent on the bridge result in a net social benefit, all things considered.”

    Now THERE’s a criteria that we can use everytime we want to spend tax money.

    please explain what a “net social benefit” is..

    how would you calculate that?

    would you need a Dept of Truth to help you?

    🙂

    bonus question:

    what is the difference between a subsidy and an investment when sending tax dollars?

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    You are kidding, right?

    Net social benefits are TOTAL BENEFITS MINUS TOTAL COSTS, or

    NSB = TB – TC.

    Thus, we are trying to maximize TB – TC.

    The question then is to find the point along the X-axis that maximizes net social benefits. Rather than deriving this, we note that it is the point where marginal benefits equal marginal costs. The socially efficient point occurs where

    Marginal Benefits = Marginal Costs, or MB = MC.

    At this point, net social benefits are calculated as:

    NSB = A + B + C – C = A + B.

    To show the full set of reasons why this maximizes net social benefits would require additional algebra. However, the idea that marginal benefit equals marginal costs at the social optimum, or efficient point, is one of the most important concepts economists bring to the table when discussing environmental issues. It captures the essence of tradeoffs, and determining whether we are above or below this point is a major effort that economists undertake.

    http://courses.agecon.lsu.edu/3000/AGEC3503/WebUnit4/Web%20Unit%204-2.htm

    RH

  11. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Fantastic!

    Now could you plug in the Wilson Bridge and let me know what the equation says?

    cuz.. I’ve been wondering for a long time just exactly where the Wilson Bridge ranked on the societal benefit scale…

    If I had known that you had the equation in hand ready to roll, we could have saved a bunch of words..

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Maybe we are focusing too much on the subsidy concept. So long as you have any government involvement, there is some level of subsidy. I don’t want to minimize that issue, but a bigger issue that should be addressed first is: Too often we spend tax dollars building things that don’t work or don’t deliver what they are supposed to deliver.

    We want to spend billions on Dulles Rail even though it will not only fail to relieve traffic congestion in and around Tysons, but it will also make it worse with all the added density and car trips, plus there are opportunity costs. What we spend not fixing traffic at Tysons and the Dulles Corridor cannot be spent elsewhere, presumably fixing traffic.

    I’m sure that some road projects are the same.

    We’d never obtain 100% agreement on whether specific projects delivered the best value. But we should be able to get within a standard deviation!

    There are simply too many “noun and adjective” people who proffer empty words instead of data. “walkable community” I’d rather have someone address why LOS goes from E to F.

    TMT

  13. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I note that NYC is going to go forward with Cordon Tolls – actually much more comprehensive because it also addresses parking…

    Would.. in your mind.. Tysons TOD be more acceptable if a TOLL Cordon was set up around it and substantial tolls accessed?

    In other words.. enforceable performance constraints on traffic.. similar to what NYC is considering to reduce traffic?
    ( and it’s ironic.. the reason NYC is doing this is because of .. you guessed it – a Federal grant if they do it)….

    But one of the problems with ANY opposition to ANY project is that if the folks who oppose don’t have a competing vision.. then sooner or later.. they get marginalized as NIMBYs – folks with no ideas…just “NO”.

    In this case..the opposition did not stop the project.. but the political equivalent of an errant meteor… took it down…

    I don’t think it’s going to die.

    JAB mentioned putting a stake in it’s heart.. symbolically… but listening to the folks on the street and the genuine outrage of most all of the public officials.. beyond the rah-rah supporters.. people like John Warner …

    I must don’t think they are going to walk away…

    so.. the opponents got the equivalent of an overtime quarter in football parlance but they’ll lose if they don’t get in the game…

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Thank you TMT. That pretty much covers my position.

    No one likes gross subsidies, but given that I’m going to subsidise something, I prefer that it be something that works.

    Next, I prefer the subsidy be temporary: that we are investing in something that will work someday.

    Third, I prefer the subsidy be fair: that those providing the subsidy will get something in return, within their lifetime.

    Larry can deny commonly accepted economic practice, but the fact remains that there are people out there that do things like determine if Wilson Bridge is worth while. Whether reducing Mercury another part per billion is worth while, or whether Vytorin is more worthwhile than a combination of Crestor and Zetia.

    For the Wilson Bridge or Metro, one way to do it is to compare the current costs (which are known for Metro, still estimated for the bridge) with the costs of not having it.

    So, you crank up the traffic model and figure out how far people would have to drive without the bridge, and what that would cost in excess traffic on the other bridges, and how much sooner they would deteriorate as a result, and what the excess pollution would be.

    Compare that to the cost of the bridge, and I suspect it is a no-brainer, over 30 years.

    For Metro, we know what that has cost to date. We know that it is close to maximum realizable capacity (absent major demographic changes). We know it is wearing out and needs substantial repairs. We could examine the near-Metro area and determine the average valuation per square kilometer, and then do the same for a similar area without nearby Metro access.

    Then we could crank up the traffic/land use model and see what happens if you take 650,000 people per day off of Metro. Distribute them around the existing other roads, and rebalance the land use.

    Throw in all the externalities you like. Automotive pollution and automotive deaths vs metro pollution and Metro deaths, etc.

    Then you add up all the plusses and minuses and see if it really has a net social value or not.

    I suspect no one has done that, because we know we would not like the answer.

    Larry acts like this kind of thing isn’t possible, but it is. Real people do this kind of work all the time. I think it is not well publicized, not well understood, not well accepted, and has too little public dialogue which could act to verify decisions.

    Larry’s attitude is a case in point.

    “My mind is made up, don’t confuse me with facts” – Moe Schemp.

    RH

  15. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Tysons TOD be more acceptable if a TOLL Cordon was set up around it and substantial tolls accessed?”

    If you had substantial tolls around Tysons to reduce the traffic, why would you want TOD?

    Most TOD still depends substantially on cars. The whole point of transit to Tysons was to increase the traffic, and hide that behind the coming of Metro. As TMT has pointed out.

    A substantial cordon toll would substantially reduce the value of the property, and the value of density on the property. It would invalidate the whole reason for doing anything. Especially TOD.

    It would be a subsidy for sprawl. An invitation to move to Reston, Manassas, or Leesburg. Maybe even F’burg.

    Unless the businesses in Tysons prove to be exceptionally durable, and dependent on that location, for some reason. In that case, cordon tolls would be a subsidy for local housing interests.

    Then there is the question of who would collect the tolls, from whom, and what would the do with the money.

    Usually, when you collect money, it is for selling something you own. In this case, cordon tolls amount to collecting money for preventing something they don’t own. Congestion in Tyson’s.

    As long as people are willing to endure it, for the value of shopping or working in Tyson’s, government should stay out of it.

    Except that government has a legitimate interest in reducing pollution. A pollution tax, commensurate with the known costs of pollution, and pegged to excess pollution caused by congestion might be appropriate.

    But a $5 billion investment guranteed to increse congestion is not.

    RH

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “…they get marginalized as NIMBYs – folks with no ideas…just “NO”.

    Exactly right, Larry.

    That is the impending problem with the environmental movement.

    That’s why you have to have your ducks in a row: come armed with facts and figures so ironclad that they eventually take hold as fact.

    To do that, you will have to accept some figures from the opposition, and incorporate thme in your argument. It buys you credibility.

    The idea is to advance both sides, not one at the expense of the other. It is what is called “net social benefit.”

    RH

  17. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Tolls into Tysons. It’s been discussed. It might even be proposed to save density now that the current rail plan looks questionable.

    But I think that Ray is right. Put the type of tolls or parking taxes that are necessary to deliver the necessary and promised reductions in traffic and Tysons becomes undesirable as a place to live and work. Why locate in Tysons when there are other, often more attractive and cheaper places to go?

    I think that the bottom line is Tysons is simply too screwed up to fix. No one can make money if they must pay the costs of what it takes to make it a desirable and functioning location. But unless you do what is necessary, the place becomes a blob of ugly gridlock. So why are we considering spending taxpayer and DTR user money on rail, etc.? Darned if I know. Especially since the bulk of Tysons ownership is not local. REITs from who knows where. They have no more interest in the success of Tysons beyond obtaining a high FAR to flip.

    If Tysons is unfixable, what should be done? Do we make the patient comfortable until it dies? Do we fool ourselves into thinking it can be fixed? Talk a good game, but give it very little? Very tough questions, for which I sure don’t have good answers.

    TMT

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Not only that, but if the tolls work as planned, you don’t get to collect most of them.

    ???

    RH

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The funny thing is, that there are already privately operated transit systems that serve Tyson’s, at a profit. If we just leave it alone, it will fix itself, to the degree possible.

    However, there might be some use for coordination and even (gasp) subsidies to ensure that thes disaparate activities are well integrated.

    RH

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Put the type of tolls or parking taxes that are necessary to deliver the necessary and promised reductions in traffic and Tysons becomes undesirable as a place to live and work.

    Don’t put them in and it is still an undesireable place to live and work. I know. I quit a high paying job there. But then, I didn;t live there: the job didn’t pay THAT much.

    If traffic controls make it undesireable, and traffic makes it undesireable, (rents aside) what does that tell you?

    RH

  21. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “But I think that Ray is right. Put the type of tolls or parking taxes that are necessary to deliver the necessary and promised reductions in traffic and Tysons becomes undesirable as a place to live and work.”

    Make the tolls part of any proposal and see how many private developers still want to build TOD.,

    What’s the bad outcome?

    if you back a cordon toll… at the least.. you’re going to find out the true intentions of the pro-TOD folks and the county leaders…

    re: tolls that “work too well”

    so.. peak-price them, back them down, reconfigure/adjust or remove them.

    Give everyone 5 free trips a day and charge them for every trip over that…

    there are a bunch of ways to go about this..

    and advocating SOMETHING as opposed to OPPOSING everything… is a better strategy… opposing everything WILL get you marginalized – and it’s mostly self-afflicted.

    I’m not sure that RJ is being helpful here. He’s pretty much advocated AGAINST most zoning and government restrictions on development – right?

  22. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Make the tolls part of any proposal and see how many private developers still want to build TOD.”

    What has TOD to do with this, if you don’t have transit?

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “so.. peak-price them, back them down, reconfigure/adjust or remove them.”

    Now you are talking.

    If you just advocate tolls, you have lost my support. But by recognizing that there IS such a thng as too much restriction: restriction that costs us all if it is not properly modified, then I’m on your side.

    Restrictions need a proper feedback mechanism, to ensure they do not work in excess, and acually lower the public welfare they are supposed to support.

    I’m glad to see you have been listening.

    RH

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “I’m not sure that RJ is being helpful here. He’s pretty much advocated AGAINST most zoning and government restrictions on development – right?”

    I don’t understand why you think this is an adversarial relationship.

    I advocate against restrictions of any kind that work against the public welfare.

    Before we let someone spend $240 million to fly around over our heads in our skies with a plane full of our frind and relatives we require that they show to the extenst of six nines that it won’t fall out of the sky. One chance in a million.

    This policy has worked extremely well.

    I think that politicians, think tanks, special interest groups, developers, and environmentalists should be held to a similar standard of excellence.

    What I advocate for is a lot less fuzzy thinking.

    RH

  25. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    aAssume you are going to set tolls for access to Tyson’s.

    Should you set them at a level that will prvide the maximum flow on the roadways, or whoudl you set themat a level that will maximize income?

    My going in argument, or point of departure, is that you shoud set them at the level that will provide maximum flow.

    That way, you guarantee that businesses in Tyson’s will see BETTER traffic than under a non-toll situation. Residents will also get better access.

    (It might be that these toll levels coincide, but it is highly unlikely.)

    The temptation will be to set the tolls to get the maximum income. If you do that, what would you do with the income?

    That level would probably result in less trffic flow than otherwise, resulting in a loss to business owners and residents. In that case, you should take the excess income and provide it to the losers in this transaction: the businenesses and residents of Tyson’s.

    What do you do with the rest?

    The fact of inciting tolls mwans that we have conceded we have screwed up: we allowed more development there than we are willing to provide facilities to support.

    You probably are NOT going to provide more roads. We just decided that heavy rail is not an option. You could use it to provide Jitney service, or some other form of transit.

    Where does the money come from? It comes from those people who have decided tht it is worth their time and money to live someplace else and travel in order to shop, work, or conduct business at Tyson’s.

    Given that the tolls are an admission that we screwed up, and allowed more density than we can support, then the money ought to be used to ensure we don’t screw up again.

    We should figure out whare the poeple who go to Tyson’s come from, and we should send the money back to their home jurisdictions.

    They can use it for economic development so that they don’t have to travel to Tyson’s. They can use it for bettter infrastructure development, so that they don’t wind up as the next Tyson’s screw up.

    It is their money, they ought to get it back.

    RH

  26. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    IF the idea is to have transit and to have development around transit – i.e. TOD AND one of the goals of transit/TOD is less auto congestion

    following this?

    AND.. the concern is that building TOD will not do anything to reduce auto traffic, and,in fact may actually make it worse…

    following this?

    THEN… the solution is to require TOD to meet actual performance standards with respect to reducing auto traffic.

    so you’re not trying to maximize anything but reduce something that is deemed a public benefit to reduce because more autos requires more infrastructure to serve and/or will result in worse congestion.

    so . if that is REALLY what is desired AND we have a bunch of folks who just flat don’t believe that it will work as a voluntary/conceptual goal.., then put together something that requires it.

    One approach is to use a Cordon Toll like NYC and London, Stockholm are using to restrict traffic…

    You make this a requirement of any TOD proposal.

    if you do this..you find out how many TOD proposals are REALLY willing to deliver the promised benefits of TOD.

    This is a no lose approach because you find out if the concept really is workable in the minds of those who say they want to build TOD.

    If you get no proposals.. you’ve got the answer.

    If you do get proposals but they have concerns about it working “too well”.. then you set up a system (like the HOT lanes) where you agree to a certain flow of traffic and you use the TOLL prices to adjust it for optimal results.

    I see this as a way to satisfy the opponents concerns as well as attracting commercial development – a compromise to suit both sides concerns…. and to go forward with something both sides can agree to

    .. and opposed to people locking in their positions and the issue becomes even more divisive and more difficult to resolve.

    However… all of this is predicated on the idea that change is virtually guaranteed and if someone is opposed to change and just wants the status quo or even a return to an earlier time/place.. then they’re not going to be satisfied no matter what.. and in my view.. they won’t stop the change either.. it will happen unless a clear majority of people are opposed…

    I’ve said before and I stick to it. MOST people are not opposed to growth – per se. They’re opposed to growth that benefits some at the expense to others.

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “THEN… the solution is to require TOD to meet actual performance standards with respect to reducing auto traffic.”

    For a split second I thought you might have been listening for a change – to do that we might need realistic measurements that people can beleive.

    Then I read your next paragraph.

    “so you’re not trying to maximize anything but reduce something that is deemed a public benefit to reduce because more autos requires more infrastructure to serve and/or will result in worse congestion.”

    which is what you would have to prove up front. You cannot simply “deem” a public benefit. More transit also requires more infrastructure. The benefits it offers may or may not be greater than its costs. Which takes us pack to performance standards.

    “MOST people are not opposed to growth – per se. They’re opposed to growth that benefits some at the expense to others.”

    It doesn’t matter what most people think: it matters what the people in power think. Look at Loudon county.

    Growth always benefits some more than others. That isn’t the same as gaining benefit at the expense of others. It doesn’t justify preventing growth at the expense of others. If you don’t understand the difference, you are a socialist.”

    It is really easy to get along with me. All you have to demand is the same standards on both sides of the fence, and a high level of veracity.

    RH

  28. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: ” It doesn’t matter what most people think: it matters what the people in power think. Look at Loudon county.”

    and how did the elected get into office?

    would it have something to do with “how most people think”?

    I know this seems like a radical concept but voters actually decide who stays in office and who does not….

    voters ultimately decide what a “public benefit” is or is not… much if not most of the time…

    The only way to fix this “problem” would be to have a Dept of Truth whose decisions are final and not appealable.

    Of course those in office are not above lying and pandering to stay in office or get into office but I think Mr. Lincoln had it right:

    “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

    it just takes a while and voters are gullible to sleight-of-hand politics but over time.. enough of them “get it”.

  29. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Saying you are opposed to growth that benefits some at the expense to others is equivalent to saying you are opposed to growth.

    I picked Loudon because it has been such a yo-yo. Apparently the people there don’t know what they want.

    Say what you will, about who “gets it” when people in western Loudoun got some relief on building restrictions, many of them “got it” by building what they could before the rug got yanked again.

    If the process was transparent and predicitable, you would have a lot less of that kind of activity.

    In order to be tranaparent and prdicitable, those people you say “get it” the ones that wnat no growth, would have to agree on a price at which they would accept growth. Since no price is acceptable, the way they “get it” is to get what they want at other people’s expense.

    I’m not opposed to “no growth”, I’m just opposeed to “no growth” tht benefits some at the expense of others.

    RH

  30. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “Say what you will, about who “gets it” when people in western Loudoun got some relief on building restrictions, many of them “got it” by building what they could before the rug got yanked again.”

    yet another thread that starts out on the original subject and somehow goes far afield and goes on and on.

    Let’s both agree to try to stay within the thread subject and pretend that we get paid for short concise “on target” comments instead of by the word…

    okay?

    🙂

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