Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Rumblings Among House Republicans

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Dick Hall-Sizemore
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Del. Don Scott (D-Portsmouth), Minority Leader

by Dick Hall-Sizemore

Del. Don Scott (D-Portsmouth), the current Minority Leader in the House of Delegates, seems to be on a smooth glide path to making history by being elected Speaker when the General Assembly convenes in January. The fate of the current Speaker, Todd Gilbert (R-Shenandoah), is less certain.

Del. Todd Gilbert (R-Shenandoah), currently Speaker

One might logically expect a Speaker to maintain leadership of his party caucus after it moved from the majority to minority. But it seems that some members are unhappy, and that Del. Terry Kilgore (R-Scott), the current Majority Leader, is campaigning to be the Republican floor leader in the next Session, rather than Gilbert. The Virginia Political Newsletter reports that the unhappiness of some members stems from feeling that “the talking point of a new 15-week restriction was forced upon them by House leadership and Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s PAC, Spirit of Virginia.” One Republican delegate told the newsletter, on the condition of anonymity, “Many of us understood that the messaging and focus on the abortion issue was wrong from the start, and would hurt Republicans, especially in competitive districts.”

Del. Terry Kilgore (R-Scott), currently Majority Leader

It is not uncommon for legislators to rebel against their leadership when their party loses its majority status. In fact, Scott owes his current position to a coup he led two years ago against then-Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Fairfax) after the Democrats were toppled from the majority.

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28 responses to “Rumblings Among House Republicans”

  1. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    About as surprising as a report that the sun rises in the east.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      What I found interesting was the primary reason being given for the discontent–Republican candidates felt “forced” to use the Governor’s abortion platform.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        If you believe folks like Shaun Kenney, the abortion thing is not the reason for the loss , but rather the new map.

        Lots of different analyses, and conventional wisdom IS that abortion drove some of it.

        But interesting that not even some GOP liked the idea that it had been “decided” that 15 weeks was the right number for the GOP candidates as well as voters.

        15 weeks does has general support in the polls like Gallup.. 75% or so.

        But Dems were not buying the 15-week idea. They simply did not trust the GOP on that number and believed it was essentially a sucker promise to get their vote and then do what many other GOP states were doing, boost it to more Draconian levels.

        However, had the GOP prevailed, there would have been no second guessing the 15 weeks..

        It was all about if enough voters would buy it as a firm number and they were not.

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          It is ironic that Republicans are blaming redistricting for their loss. They were the ones that drafted the constitutional amendment language setting up the Supreme Court as the ultimate decider. Most Democrats in the GA opposed the amendment due to that provision. Contrary to Democrats’ fears, the Virginia Supreme Court came up with maps most observers, if not all, considered reasonable and fair. If Democrats in 2021 had been able to draw the maps as both parties had done in the past, Republicans would have lost even more seats.

          It wasn’t the redistricting that put the Republicans at a disadvantage. It was demographics. There are fewer rural, safe Republican districts. Four of the House races won by Republicans were decided by less than 1,000 votes or four or fewer percentage points. If the demographic trends continue and Republicans do not adapt, they are likely to be even more in the minority in the future.

          1. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            There’s a good argument that the election was decided by turnout. That’s always a safe assumption in off year elections. The Dems had an energized base that turned out and the Repubs did not.

            It may be that the court did a pretty good job creating competitive districts and the outcome was driven more by turnout than demographics.

            The shoe was on the other foot in ’21 when McAuliffe and NVa school boards did a good job energizing the Repubs.

            It seems Virginia really is a purple state that will slosh a little one way or the other from election to election.

          2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            Turnout is the key in almost all elections. It is not necessarily the case that the Democrats had larger turnouts in all the races. Take HD 82 (Petersburg/Dinwiddie), for instance. That district consists of Petersburg and portions of Dinwiddie, Prince George, and Surry counties. Petersburg has the largest share of registered
            voters in the district—37 percent. Kimberly Adams, the Democratic challenger trounced Kim Taylor, the Republican incumbent, in Petersburg, getting 87 percent of the vote. On the other hand, Kim Taylor piled up large
            enough margins in Dinwiddie and Prince George to more than offset Adams’ margin
            in Petersburg. The turnout in both Dinwiddie and Prince George was around 50 percent. (The turnout in Surry was even larger, 59 percent, but the two candidates were virtually tied in those returns.) In summary, much higher turnout in the areas in which the Republican candidate was stronger resulted in a 228-vote win by
            the Republican candidate.

          3. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Do you think that district was typical across the state or an anomaly? Thought what I saw indicated that generally the turnout by Repubs was fairly typical of off years (actually an off off year election since it was just the general assembly, there were no statewide races) and that Dems were more energized.

            Certainly turnout is always a big issue. But, in off years because of generally reduced turnout (commonly in the 30s) getting the base to the polls was the key to winning. At least that’s what we were taught during the years my wife and I were part of party leadership.

            Turnout was lowest in off years, higher for mid terms, and there were a lot of folks who were presidential voters and only came out every four years. Turnout percentages during those years generally confirmed that. Has that changed?

            It seemed Dems found a way to get the base out using fear of Repubs “true” intentions on abortion as the driver in Virginia this year.

            ps: It looks like in the 82nd that even with a large percentage of the district’s voters in Petersburg and overwhelming Dem vote there that typically low (31%?) off year turnout lost the day. The Dems did not turn out the base in Petersburg and there were very few Repub voters there, even if they all turned out. The 82nd seems an argument that the court did a pretty good job of designing competitive districts.

            Repubs might do well to look at the higher county turnouts to see what was going on there that brought out the vote so they can generalize it across the state. I suppose it could be there were no larger issues, just local committees that were effective at getting their voters to the polls. I wouldn’t bet on it.

            It will be interesting to see how the parties play it out and we learn what they figure the issues are.

            Here’s a link that shows this years turnout in Tidewater was profoundly lower than in ’21 (an off year, but not an off off year) when there were statewide races on the ballot that brought more voters out:

            https://www.pilotonline.com/2023/11/06/virginia-elections-by-the-numbers-voter-turnout-appears-down-campaign-spending-brings-in-millions/

          4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            I don’t know if the Petersburg House seat race was typical. I looked at it because it was very close and the district is comprised of areas that are very different from each other.

            The trouble with analyses like those shown in your link is that the data includes all seats, even the uncontested ones, which will skew the results.

            In Henrico’s SD 16 contest between Dunnavant and VanValkenburg, which was one of the high profile races, the turnout was 55 percent. That is higher than normal for a off off year election. VanValkenburg got 54 percent of the vote. However, that was in line with how the district had voted recently–2022, Congress–Democrat, 54.6 percent; 2021, Governor , McAuliffe, 52.8 percent. Therefore, one could assume that both sides were about equally successful in turnout their base.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            VPAP has turnout stats for R and D for the races. Apparently that data is available.

          6. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
            Dick Hall-Sizemore

            I can’t find that analysis

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            THis is all I can find.. I swear I thought I saw it by district:

            https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/partisanship-of-voting-methods/

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            l must have looked and gotten confused. I cannot find what I thought I saw…

          9. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            In a way, the map was at least a very big factor. If the districts could have been gerrymandered to benefit Republicans, they would have won. We see that they are more than willing to gerrymander where they can. They would have done so here given the opportunity. They were forced into their support of the redistricting amendment when they lost control of the legislature as they knew if Dems could, they would also gerrymander and Virginia would forever be Blue. At least they have a chance every now and then under the current system. The planets must align though in a big way. They certainly did not this year.

      2. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        I presume the Repubs who are unhappy with Youngkin’s relatively moderate abortion platform wanted a more restrictive position.

        What they don’t seem to understand is that abortion is a driving issue for the Dems. It energizes them and drives turnout. If the Repubs don’t figure out how to defang the issue the results in ’24 and beyond will be worse. They will not get there by taking a harder line, which is what the Dems said Repubs wanted as they ignored Youngkin’s position and successfully demagogued the issue.

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          I interpreted that differently. They seemed to be saying that the Governor should not have made changes in abortion law such a marquee issue. It would have been better if he had not proposed anything. Whether they would have voted for stricter limit once the session started is not known.

          1. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Thanks, I’ll take that, I was not particularly informed.

            Just figured the way Dems demagogued the issue that there was Repub sentiment for more restrictive law than Youngkin proposed, and his position was an attempt to take the issue off the table. It may be that Dems were more riding the national sentiments and tarred Virginia with that.

            Either way from the advertising I saw that was high volume and strident, the Repubs need to figure out how to defuse the issue or they will get burned by it again.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yes, the GOP candidates did not want that issue front and center – and to put them in a position of having to have to more precisely declare their position and defend it.

            All the more reason to not trust the GOP on the issue IMO.

      3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Yes (re: Va Repubs stuck to assumed anti-abortion policy) to the point Dems would not even trust a pro-choice Repub, like ever in the future. Trump a different story maybe… I do not think Trump is zealot on abortion issue.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          one that would claim to be pro-choice but roll over on a party-line vote… yes…

  2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Don Scott. First elected black Speaker of the House of Delegates. Also first convicted felon to the job. Nonetheless, his story is inspiring. Made for TV movie type of story. I don’t like some of his politics, but I do like Don. I hope he serves the Commonwealth beyond just being a first. Interesting how Bob McDonnell restored his political rights. Both men believed in the power of redemption.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20230331050451/https://www.pilotonline.com/news/article_8172be74-ecf7-11e8-80ba-dff53ee8262d.html

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Yep, Kerry and Hans Bader can’t rant about how it was one of those Democratic soft-on-crime governors who restored the voting rights for a convicted felon.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        You have to wonder if Don Scott was there for Governor Bob when his ship hit the shoals.

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          He was probably too busy setting up his law practice to take much notice and he certainly did not have any political influence then.

  3. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    So Mr. Fox, how were those grapes?

  4. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    Could be trouble in Senate District 15 for the blue team.

  5. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    My guess – and it is a guess, because it is my frustration with the Pubbie ability to lose with a winning hand – is that the base, by the GY top, was muzzled to win the pampered wine Mom vote and not be “mean,” so don’t speak the harsh truth about abortion, and let the Molech worshippers frame the debate. Stupid beyond belief and the sorta porn star nearly won – but the Twinkie diet is not very filling, or good for you. What do the Pubbies stand for? In the face of a party lying, and essentially advocating for baby sacrifice. You need more than we aren’t crazy and we wear a red vest and smile, while you are being called a monster, by monsters!

  6. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Any thoughts on the “residency issue” described in this article …. ?

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/virginia-dems-could-lose-control-of-state-senate-because-one-of-its-members-may-have-lied-about-her-residence

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      ” But four neighbors filed a complaint saying she actually lives outside the district on Bosham Lane in Midlothian, and they provided a spreadsheet saying they had driven by the house 62 times during the month of October to document her residency. The notes include her car being there late at night and early in the morning, and her leaving the house shortly after 8 a.m. It also includes photographic evidence.

      Putting Hashmi in a particular bind, if she did live in the Chesterfield apartment, then she may have committed a felony by concealing her ownership of the Midlothian home on sworn election forms.”

      Oh I’m sure the AG is on this like stink on a skunk especially with such an esteemed source as the Daily Signal which is funded entirely by the Heritage Foundation.

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