THE LONG, TORTUROUS – PERHAPS IMPOSSIBLE – PATH TO FUNCTIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE HUMAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS
This perspective was originally titled: LOCATION-VARIABLE COSTS – HOUSING LOCATION RELATED TO JOBS. The intent was to amplify the comments by TMT and others following Peter G’s post “Public-Private May Get Overhaul” on public / private transportation ‘projects.’
EMR will get back to location-variable costs and to Job / Housing location synergies in a moment but first:
SOME IMPORTANT BACKGROUND READING
The current issue of Miller-McCune has a compelling essay on the difficulty of overcoming “naive realism” – deeply held but superficial beliefs that have negative impacts on individuals and on society.
Humans find it comfortable, and often compelling, to hold onto simple (and often simplistic) views of complex conditions. This is a variation on what Jared Diamond calls ‘traditional values’ that lead humans down the path to Collapse. Recognizing naive realism is central to understanding the critical importance of human settlement patterns and to developing consensus on the path to functional and sustainable distribution of human activity.
The topic of the Miller-McCune essay by Christie Aschwanden is the difficulty of shifting from simplistic ‘beliefs’ about medical procedures and self-medications to what are called ‘evidence based medical guidelines” based on the best current research.
The cases examined by Aschwanden are:
Long distance runners popping nonsteroidal anti-inflammatorys (NSAIDs) during endurance challenging runs,
The recent U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations on mammography, and
Treatment of back pain.
EMR is not a medical doctor however his Household has had direct, personal experience with NSAIDs and their risks, with mammography success and failure (and similar testing for other cancers) as well as 47 years of experience with back pain and the x-rays, MRIs, exercises and medications to address back pain.
Bottom Line: READ “Evidence Is Only Part of the Story” (print version) “Convincing the Public to Accept New Medical Guidelines (on line version) at http://www.miller-mccune.com/health/convincing-the-public-to-accept-new-medical-guidelines-11422/
The article is ‘right on’ with respect to medical practice but there is a MUCH bigger issue as the print version’s title suggests.
The difficulty of overcoming ‘naive realism’ is key to developing a Critical Mass for support for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns.
How does medical practice relate to human settlement patterns?
In two ways:
First, the human body is a complex organism. Human settlement patterns are far more complex organic systems that are the result of billions of human actions and inactions. (See discussion of why human settlement patterns are organic systems and what that means for anyone trying to understand human settlement patterns – e.g. aggregation and disaggregation of component parts of organic systems – in The Shape of the Future.)
Second, even if there were not organism / organic system parallels, the importance of naive perceptions – and the genetic proclivities which underlie them – apply in both cases.
Myths rule human actions with respect to settlement pattern preferences and decisions.
“The Truth” is not enough to change behavior and the medical examples in Aschwanden’s essay are powerful examples of that reality.
In one of the medical examples:
“Growth of a cancer is BAD and early detection is the primary issue to be concerned about” is a widely held belief that stands in the way of the most effective ways to protect the most humans from cancer.
In a settlement pattern example:
“Growth is GOOD and the only issue is how to foster growth and development.” (This Myth is related not just to LOCATION or cumulative impact of growth but to “growth” itself which will be the topic of a future perspective “DeGrowth – Shrinking to Survive and THEN to Prosper.”)
The context and nature of “growth”is just one of thousands of naive beliefs that confound and block the path to evolving functional and sustainable human settlement patterns.
CREATING CITIZEN CONSENSUS
The comments on the 27 May 2010 post “Public-Private May Get Overhaul” by Peter G. diverged from public / private partnerships into tax districts and specifically the VA Route 28 Tax District. There are a number of good comments and information in the string about the VA Route 28 Tax District.
After coming to grips with the tax district topic, TMT changed horses. He said that he questioned the overarching goal of Job / Housing proximity. EMR will get back to this issue in a moment but first let us examine why naive reality is so important in this context.
After an anonymous commentor who referrers to herself as ‘Observer’ laid out the need for citizen consensus this way:
“A Critical Mass of citizens must understand the need for Fundamental Transformations and support a comprehensive program (to achieve those Transformations).”
TMT said:
“This is tilting at windmills. Complex solutions that people don’t understand and understand to be fair will not be adopted.”
How right TMT is!
That is why EMR spent a decade researching, writing and editing The Shape of the Future.
As those who have read the book know, EMR starts out with Nine Fundamental Theses and articulates Five Natural Laws derived from the settlement patterns that have actually been built over the last 60 years in the US.
The first Volume of the book articulates the absolute requirement for a robust Vocabulary and a comprehensive Conceptual Framework with which to discuss and understand human settlement patterns. EMR also articulated Regional Metrics to facilitate Quantification of the organic components of human settlement pattern.
Before he would agree to pen the Foreword to The Shape of the Future, then Secretary of the Smithsonian, I Michael Heyman insisted that the ideas for moving citizens toward a sustainable path that took up over 500 pages of the Volume II in the Roman and Gargoyle Drafts of the book be organized into simple, easy to understand strategies. The result was the Six Overarching Strategies that make up PART FOUR of The Shape of the Future.
After The Shape of the Future as completed in 2000, EMR and LTR crafted HANDBOOK. A revised edition is now PART ELEVEN of TRILO-G. HANDBOOK articulates a Three Step Process to create strategies that guide the evolution of specific Communities, SubRegions and New Urban Regions toward a sustainable economic, social and physical trajectory.
In 2003 EMR created a SubRegional citizen education and certification program titled “Shaping the Future.” A description of this program can be found in TRILO-G – PART FOUR – THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND. A overview of settlement pattern evolution in the Piedmont of Virginia includes dissection of the phrase “just twice as many dots” which is a perfect example of naive reality. “Shaping the Future” documented that before a HANDBOOK process can be started there must be a Critical Mass of citizens who understand the need for such an effort. The result of effort to articulate a citizens education process in 2003 to 2005 was PROPERTY DYNAMICS which is profiled in PART TWELVE of TRILO-G.
As part of the “Shaping the Future” program three PowerPoint programs were created. “Five Critical Realities” and “The Physics of Gridlock” are included in their original form on The Shape of the Future, 4th PrintingCD. The third. “The New Urban Region Conceptual Framework” was revised and expanded and is included on the TRILO-G CD.
Building on the foundation laid down in The Shape of the Future, these PowerPoints are an attempt to make the understanding human settlement pattern dysfunction as simple as possible.
As suggested by LINER NOTES, TRILO-G provides a road map to a ‘unified field theory of humans settlement patterns.’
Every one of these efforts has been an attempt to lay out “the truth” based on what has actually happened on the ground.
Now there is the obstacle of ‘naive reality’ and proof that even with respect to ones individual health, Myths prevail in spite of the best medical research.
This brings us back to the basic question:
Will the genetic proclivities that got humans to this point in the process of civilization fail to get humans farther? Will the belief in “naive truth” prevent humans from obtaining a sustainable trajectory?
NOW BACK TO THE IMPORTANCE OF PROXIMITY IN JOBS / HOUSING BALANCE
In the comments following the “Public-Private May Get Overhaul” post, TMT said:
“Observer, I fall off EMR’s wagon on the issue of living and working in the same close area.
“It might have worked years ago, but with both spouses/domestic partners generally working and with the general lack of job security, the odds that a family can live and work in close proximity to each other for more than a short period of time are slim to none, IMO. I’ve never heard a good answer to this question.”
Observer answered that challenge this way (with minor edits for clarification agreed to by Observer:
“TMT the answer is simple:
“Fairly allocate the location-variable costs and then you and your Household can live where so ever they want.
“Here is why:
“If you are fortunate enough to exist near the top of the Ziggurat, you can live in a place like Groveton does with not a whit of guilt because you are paying the full cost of your decisions.
“If you are fortunate enough to exist near the top of the Ziggurat and:
1) Your Agency, Enterprise or Institution relies on the efforts of some who exist anywhere below the top of the Ziggurat, or if
2) You care how much goods and Services cost or how much energy and other resources are consumed in your Region;
“You will be wise to support Jobs with Housing in close, convenient proximity for ALL who hold those Jobs as the FIRST step toward a Balance of Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity.
“That is true if you are an officer in a software company, a lawyer, the regional VP for Wal*Mart or are just “clipping coupons.”
“You will not have a whit of guilt in this case either because:
“For 60 years the market has shown – and research documents beyond a shadow of a doubt – that those who occupy 75 percent of the Households greatly prefer these locations.
“The other 25 percent of Households (those with small children in the Household) have historically had a lower percentage who favor these settlement patterns. That is because they have not yet realized that, as Prof. Risse has noted:
“When the oldest child gets big enough to kick a soccer ball into the flower bed it is time to move to a Cluster with at least 30 persons per acre in a Neighborhood with at least 20 persons per acre. At these densities (10 persons per acre at the Community scale) children can walk to a play field as well as to soccer practice, piano lessons, get a quart of milk and they can walk to elementary, middle and high school. That is all possible in any Planned New Community and many Planned New Villages build between 1962 and 1990 in the US.”
“This level of Mobility and Access is also possible in existing settlement patterns that have been revived and renewed.
“There are those who are speculating with their primary residence and those who hope to pocket an unearned windfall from land speculation and / or from building dwellings that are sold for prices that do not reflect their total cost that will try to obfuscate these fact but they ARE facts.
“They are facts about:
“Market preference and
“The most convenient places to raise children.
[It does not take a rocket scientist to see the arguments against these facts as a pure case of naive reality. As comments on this Blog document, those who do not want to believe the facts about a more complex reality will twist, squirm, question – and some will insult and demean – to avoid even acknowledging the complex reality beyond the simple bromides and Myths.]
“As to the two partners working is different places there are several responses:
“First, that is what shared-vehicle systems are designed to address. An efficient system of shared vehicles take care of the few high value trips citizens need to take outside the station-area.
“Second if costs are fairly allocated it may not seem so attractive to jump to a better paying job if the TOTAL cost turns out to make that less than an intelligent move.
“The Household’s decision to stay put helps Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood and Village stability.
“It also make it more likely that citizens will treat one another with more respect. That is because the option of telling a Clustermate to shove it when they comment on where your dog relives himself is far less rational.
“Finally, for those who just have to jump from Job to Job or partner to partner, Richard Florida makes a good argument for renting in his new book “The Great Reset.”
“Hope that helps:
“Observer”
That is all correct but EMR would add a few additional notes because this is such a critical issue.
Citizens and their Organizations must:
STOP subsidizing TOO Big Houses in dysfunctional locations, and
STOP subsidizing transportation alternatives that, regardless of how much they are subsidized will not allow:
Everyone to go wherever they want, whenever they want to go there and arrive in a timely manner.
The obverse of the last statement is another naive reality: The Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth.
Citizens, Households, Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions cannon afford to continue to pay those subsidies.
The good news is that even HUD is now cranking up location efficient programs.
But how to overcome ‘naive realism’ and the power of Myths?
A place to start is an understanding of the Five Natural Laws of Human Settlement.
BACK TO THE START
Later Observer said in answer to a question with respect to the gasoline tax addressed to EMR:
“EMR is apparently out of range and so I have no way to find out for sure but I suspect he would agree with Mr. Bacon:
“Raising the gas tax is the easiest first step.
“With tolls it is hard to sort fish from fowl. Because of the design of the Interstates it is hard to sort ‘commuters’ from InterRegional traffic.
“The bigger issue, which EMR has made clear often is that one simple tax or fee on this or that is only a band aid.
[And here comes the sentence that kicked off the naive realism discussion.]
“A Critical Mass of citizens must understand the need for Fundamental Transformations and support a comprehensive program [to achieve those Fundamental Transformations.]
“Anything less will doom contemporary, technology-based civilization.
“Sort of like a leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. The longer nothing is done, the worse it will get until there comes a point of no return.
“Observer”
That is a good answer and is included here to put in context the sentence that TMT disliked and to demonstrate why naive reality, aka Myths are so damaging in the voting booth and in the marketplace.
Oh yes, TMT’s question:
“What four understandable and fair steps, besides raising the gas tax, would make incremental progress to EMR’s goal?”
Well, the Six Overarching Strategies are a place to start – once one has a grasp of the reality of human settlement patterns.
EMR