Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Republican Problems in Virginia

—

by

Bob Rayner
in ,

by Shaun Kenney

There was an angrier version of this analysis I had prepared. One that placed the blame squarely on the shoulders of those who would have reaped the rewards had Tuesday gone differently.

I’m not going to do that.

… because there’s a bigger problem in front of us.

Virginia Democrats have a lot more strength than Virginia Republicans care to consider, and it will take all of us — all of us — and not just some of us to put up a resistance in 2024 and 2025.

I don’t know what it will require to fix it. Yet I think many Republicans are tired of being used for temporary gain only to watch the Democrats run circles around us as they invest in the necessary ecosystem — activists, news outlets, think tanks, polling firms — to capture hearts and minds. Republicans are a consultancy-driven party; Democrats are built around coalitions. With differing definitions of success and reward, victory comes much more cheaply for Republicans than for Democrats.

When it comes, that is.

The Democrats can point back to 20 years of progress. Can we name a single Republican victory in Virginia on a policy issue of note over the last 20 years? That we were proud to run on and champion in front of voters?

I think most of us were just expecting more from the word victory rather than “came close!” or “but we kept the Democrats out of power!” or “gee — can’t wait until I land the next job at <insert lobbying interest here>  in two years!” Certainly the Allen administration did not operate this way. Surely the Gilmore administration never functioned this way.

Just a tiny bit frustrated, as I’m sure we all are. But I’m right and you know it.

Here’s hoping for lessons learned moving into 2024 and 2025.

Shaun Kenney is senior editor of The Republican Standard, where this column first appeared. It is published with permission. 

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80 responses to “Republican Problems in Virginia”

  1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    “I don’t know what it will require to fix it.”
    There is the problem. You boys at the top of the state party need to move along. You tired old horses with worn out yokes. We need some fresher stronger legs.

    1. Kathleen Smith Avatar
      Kathleen Smith

      Amen to that!

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      But they seem to make up the ranks of the extreme Right.

      1. Randy Huffman Avatar
        Randy Huffman

        Hmmmm Let me think about that as we look at who is at the top of the Democratic party in DC.

        Are Youngkin, Sears and Miyares part of the old horses, extreme right? Is Trump extreme right? If so, why?

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Yep. They are angry and led by their desires.

  2. Mom Avatar
    Mom

    Some thoughts for RPV and local GOP units.

    1. Enough with the negative waves Moriarity. Cease the endless negative print and media ads. They only accomplish three things, invorgorating the opposition’s base, wasting tremendous amounts of cash and giving free name recognition to the opponent. Never, ever mention your opponent’s name if you don’t have to. Why give them free in-kind advertsising.

    2. In a similar vein, don’t tell us about the opposition tell us what you’re going to do. Focus on the plan and the positive not the opponent’s negatives, see above.

    3. Tell the powers that be to SUCK IT, when it comes to their campaign advice. They are not on the ground and largely don’t understand demographics or issues in any particular race.

    4. Dont lie, appear on Only Fans, urinate in public, etc. (oops, that should be directed to the opposition).

    5. Stay away from the third rail (Trump, abortion, etc.) focus on things like the negative impact of the Clean Virgina Act on jobs and the Virginia economy.

    6. Tell the Senate and their “consultants” to SUCK IT. They are more concerned about their contractors and lobbyists than your race. The walkbooks are an absolute waste of time and money. If you are going to selectively walk a neighbor look for Gadsen plates or American flags, those are better indicators of likely voters than the outdated and flawed data in the walkbooks, regardless of provider.

    How’s that for a start.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Great, so start with a line from Kelly’s Heroes, a movie about a rogue platoon turned gold thieves, and spoken by a hash smoking tank commander.

      OTOH, accurate, but impossible to do. It’s more than Trump. It’s Fox, X, etc., etc.

      1. Mom Avatar
        Mom

        So your problem is a line from possibly one of the greatest cinematic tours de force of all time.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Yeah, it was that. But, that line doesn’t fit the Republican dilemma nearly as well as the theme song.

          Kinda reminds you of home, doesn’t it.

          1. Mom Avatar
            Mom

            Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

          2. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Make a deal!

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgeIINs1TrQ

          3. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Make a deal!

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgeIINs1TrQ

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      1 wishful thinking.
      2 you DO have to have a point to have a point.
      3 yeah, like they were wrong about abortion being a 70-30 issue.
      4 or frodage in movie theaters.
      5 too late. They’ve shown their strength to be a weakness. Republicans can try not to bring ‘em up. Hahahaha…
      6 https://media.istockphoto.com/id/960636928/photo/pair-of-big-retro-loudspeakers-on-car-roof-fire-trucks-on-background-urgent-or-emergency.jpg?s=1024×1024&w=is&k=20&c=T4h2chUfXVgkv7jJ2_cdeDPcV0AoCJA1abzxKXJDSsI=

  3. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Well, the taint of the National party hangs on the RPV.

    1. Kathleen Smith Avatar
      Kathleen Smith

      It doesn’t get any simpler than that. Trump has to go and some of his far far far right wings as well. Bring us back to the middle.

  4. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    It seems that Republicans run on taxes, traffic, and now crime. However, they almost never propose anything that will actually fix the issue.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Yes. They don’t have an optimistic view of the path forward.

      It’s often all about attacks on institutions, higher ed, K-12, boogeymen and grievances and the like.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Yes they have! Using banned books and LBGT kids for topes.

      1. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        My usual topics, right? Uh, no, I’ve pointed the way for four years on taxes, energy, economic issues…others have added discussions of law and order (and some lefty prosecutors DID lose) and a few salient points on public employee unions. Hear much about those in October? Looking back my feeling now is I should have found a different hobby, the amount of focus the last campaign put on those issues. The EV mandate was a solid gold wedge issue the R’s just underplayed. Maybe in ’25 when the car dealers are starting to comply….

        It was 18 Rs in the Senate and 41 in the House when I quit the GOP Caucus gig in 1992. So it hasn’t slipped all the way back. ‘Tis a pendulum. It will turn.

        Disqus has relented and I’m back. 🙂

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Wow. Either you’re Teddy007 or I hit a nerve. 😉

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          “’Tis a pendulum. It will turn.”

          ‘Tis also demographics… they won’t.

          1. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            You are making the assumption that certain demographic groups will continue to stay wedded to one political party forever. Polls are showing that that assumption might already be unraveling. As a former President once said, “You can fool some of the people all of the time. You can fool all of the people some of the time. But you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” Can Democrats keep fooling enough of the people enough of the time? Stay tuned.

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Well, we continue to see Republican attempts to drive wedges in the Democratic coalition but the latest attempt seems to have failed famously.

            https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/jews-us-overwhelmingly-support-biden-oppose-trump-poll

          3. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            Of course Republicans attempt to drive wedges into Democrat coalitions, just as Democrats try to drive wedges into Republican coalitions. That is how politics work. I don’t remember hearing about how the Democrats failed famously when they lost the House 2 years ago. Perhaps you could refresh my recollection.

          4. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Really? That seemed to be all anyone talked about back then. Alas… memories are indeed short. The thing that has changed this time around is that the map is permanent…

          5. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            Perhaps you could link to a news story that explained how the Democrats failed famously. As for the “map is permanent”, you seem to be suggesting that the redistricting favored the Democrats. I hadn’t heard that from other Democrats.

          6. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            First google hit…

            https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/why-the-dem-strategy-in-virginia-failed-and-how-youngkin-flipped-the-state

            “I hadn’t heard that from other Democrats”

            Really? I have said as much many times right here. If you are interested, google is again your friend. Redistricting clearly benefited Dems. It created a map that reflected the demographics of Virginia which added to our numbers in the legislature – fairly. That fact is indisputable.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Are you thinking the areas that are blue and trending blue are going to swing back to GOP?

          8. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            I was thinking about demographic groups, not geographic groups, but, yes, I will be working to make both those things happen.

          9. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Odd that one claims that Democrats are trying to fool people when it was Youngkin and the Republicans who tried to fool swing voters in 2023 with the claim of support for a 15 week abortion ban. Everyone knew that Youngkin would have signed any abortion ban that hit the governor’s desk if the Republicans would have hit the election trifecta. The same can be said that a 100% school choice program will lead to overall better education outcomes when it reality, school choice or school voucher programs that meant to remand the elite and those whose children are already in private schools.

          10. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            They finally seem to have learned this in rural Texas…

            https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/16/texas-house-school-vouchers/

            “The House voted 84-63 in favor of an amendment offered by Rep. John Raney, R-College Station, which removed the provision of the bill allowing some parents to use tax dollars to send their children to private and religious schools. Twenty-one Republicans, most of whom represent rural districts, joined all Democrats in support.”

            “Voucher opponents said they feared the subsidy would divert money from their public school systems — either in the short term because students would leave for private schools, or in the long term because the state would have to commit more funding to the program that would otherwise fund public education. For many rural Republicans, they said they have few private schools in their districts where families could take advantage of vouchers.”

          11. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            interesting article, thanks for posting!

          12. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            School choice is a meaningless policy proposals for people who live in rural areas or the exurbs. There are just not enough people to have multiple schools that can offer everything. And everyone should remember that high school sports are one of the reasons keeping school choice or a privatization from gathering support. The backers of school choice in Texas are those deeply social conservatives who live in the deep blue urban areas who want a subsidy for their children’s private school.

          13. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The advocates of school choice do not care what happens to public schools, indeed, if it hurts public schools, they are fine with it.

            If one looks at how much a given family pays in taxes , it’s not near enough to pay the costs of educating even one child. The whole philosophy is premised on the idea that there are other taxpayers without kids who are also paying taxes to educate kids of others.

          14. LesGabriel Avatar
            LesGabriel

            How did “everyone know that Youngkin would have signed any abortion ban that hit the governor’s desk”? I for one didn’t know any such thing, but maybe that is because I don’t believe all of the Democrat’s propaganda.

          15. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            There is a known “history” in Virginia and I don’t think an argument that Conservatives have advocated for lesser restrictions of late will fly…at all… if anything, Conservatives want even more restrictive laws.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae09fe09fd8767c70b3701507f9aca2b66beb809f71b4984b2c6a81cd1fa56fb.png

            ” In a rare political stumble for the popular governor, McDonnell, a staunch abortion opponent, withdrew his support for the vaginal probe clause minutes before it was to be debated by the Virginia House of Delegates.”

            Would Youngkin, today, decline to sign a more restrictive law if it was presented to him?

            Has he said that he would not sign a more restrictive bill?

            All things considered, if the GA had gone GOP, chances are that Youngkin would have been presented with even tougher restrictions and we have nothing from Youngkin indicating he’d not sign a more restrictive bill.

            So the question is , who do you trust on this if you don’t know for sure?

            And we just got that answer from the voters.

          16. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Because before the 2023 election cycle, Youngkin stated that he would sign any abortion law that crossed his desk. It was only the threat of losing elections that caused Youngkin to publicly start talking about a moderate position.

          17. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            What? Physics tells us that once you mix all the colors, you get white.

          18. Stephen Haner Avatar
            Stephen Haner

            Fascinating to watch my kids’ views change as they pass 40 and get a little $$. 🙂

          19. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Gen-X is not the demographic you should be worried about…

        3. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Wow. Either you’re Teddy007 or I hit a nerve. 😉

  5. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    “20 years of progress”? No, 20 years of winning with destructive policies (because Republicans are the stupid party)
    Say what you want about the CommieDems, they stick together for power, and when they have it, they are ruthless – now to the point of destroying the country to “save” the country.

    The problem isn’t Trump. The problem is…what? Pride? Hurt feelings? “Principles?” Being ridiculed at “the club?” Snobbery? A class thing? I don’t know. What I do know is in a binary choice, for me, the Republican is always the choice, even when a feckless, bland backstabber (McCain, Romney).

    The rednecks are mad. They are mad because they don’t trust the establishment Pubbies…with pretty good reason. Why did the wall not happen when Trump was first elected? Oliver Anthony’s song didn’t come out of nowhere. (And for my triggered liberal friends, I include working class blacks and Hispanics and even Asians and Jews as “rednecks” – it was a shorthand generalization for people who work hard for a living in professions that typically make the lives of the so-called elites better, while the so-called elites look down on them)

    Don Surber has a good article out on this – https://donsurber.substack.com/p/why-republican?publication_id=1115457&post_id=138796015&isFreemail=false&r=o7sbf and the VA election is proof of it.

    Youngkin ran on a milquetoast don’t say anything mean platform while the CommieDems basically advocated child sacrifice, and the sorta porn star nearly won! Try running on truth and fighting the evil, lying, destructive Dems – like there are 2 sexes, parents control the upbringing of their children, the Dems are the party of child sacrifice and the fact that they won’t accept a 15 week compromise proves it, the electric cars are not feasible and hurt the poor, Soros prosecutors hurt all, particularly minorities, the schools s**k because of crazy policies and a teachers’ union that doesn’t care about students for real. Heck, he could even try saying something really mean like – single parent families, particularly where the sperm donor father is not present is bad for the kids and society.

    Western Civ is about to collapse. Fighting for it would win votes, because it is the best – act like it and defend it.

  6. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Dear W&M Community,

    I write with exciting news for the Alma Mater of the Nation. Earlier today, William & Mary’s Board of Visitors unanimously voted to establish a new school, bringing together existing strengths in Computer Science, Data Science, Applied Science and Physics. This milestone in our Vision 2026 strategic plan positions William & Mary to continue to lead the evolution of the liberal arts and sciences for the 21st century.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Germanna and Mary Washington established lab schools but Spotsylvania voted it down.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        https://news.wm.edu/2023/11/17/alma-mater-of-innovation-proposed-new-school-positions-wm-as-a-leader-in-the-evolution-of-liberal-arts-and-sciences/

    2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      I read the announcement and I still don’t know the new “school” will actually be about. It is all academic speak.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        The keywords “data fluency” is the only clue to me. You and I came out of the days of graphs and charts as the only way to display and communicate data. Now, with virtual and augmented reality, the immediate use and display of data is wide open. Consider “hearing” the stars — converting the visual light frequencies into sounds. It was a novelty 20 years ago, but perhaps a useful way of describing astronomical phenomenon tomorrow. Combine that with data acquisition, data mining, decision-making algorithms, and AI (most importantly AI), and it’s an area of study with a lot of potential and applications, like Operations Research was for the past 60 years.

        We are no longer the end user of information. We have created systems that require data collection and information extraction that is completely useless to us, but imperative to them.

        It’ll surely be a combination of the CompSci, Math, and Physics curriculums and departments.

        Then again, it could be the training necessary to create the existential threat to humanity everyone is freaking out over. It would be kinda cool if W&M were the birthplace of the Borg.

    3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      “…the evolution of the liberal arts and sciences for the 21st century….”

      Total aside but straightforward engineers simply can not write. I hire science majors out of liberal arts schools (including W&M) because they can. As simple as that.

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        Last time I hired an engineer, the two things I was looking for were:

        1)Ability to draw up a lot grading plan and design a septic system

        2)PE certification

        A science major of any kind wouldn’t have the qualifications to do that stuff.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          where would someone get the schooling for those skills?

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            The guy who did this work for me:

            “He has a degree in Civil Engineering with a minor in Land Surveying from Virginia Tech and is licensed in the state of Virginia as a Professional Engineer and Land Surveyor. He has over 35 years of experience practicing in Northern Virginia. Tom has specialized in Alternative Drainfield Design for over 25 years and prepared over 4,000 alternative on-site septic system designs.”

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            new guy.. to start… what kind of education to get hired to do on the job training?

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Would guess you’d need a civil engineering degree as a minimum. Autocad training would be good, too.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            what level of math would you need to be able to do civil engineering… ?? Calculus?

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            You need less math for civil engineering than for electrical engineering, that’s for sure. Not really sure beyond that, it’s been years since I looked into it.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I’d think if you were going to be involved in things like bridges , water treatment plants, sewers, other
            infrastructure, get a PE, you’d need some pretty solid math.

          7. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Well yes, we don’t want a repeat of Chernobyl!

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I think some substantial math might be required for some stuff. Not higher level mathematician but certainly Calculus, linear algebra, related equations etc… that describes structures and dynamics, etc. There are many models now but you’d still have to understand what the model is doing and if it is the right one for the application. You seem to know quite a bit about electricity, drain fields, building codes
            but I thought you did software for the govt?

          9. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            “You seem to know quite a bit about electricity, drain fields, building codes
            but I thought you did software for the govt?”

            I have hobbies and interests outside of work.

            Thankfully, because I find government work to be the most boring, soul-sucking form of employment possible.

          10. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I did get that………. 😉

          11. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Funny thing is I keep getting emails from recruiters looking to fill VDOT contract positions. I’ve probably gotten at least 10 of them over the last year.

            The most ridiculous of them was an 8-month, on-site job in Staunton, VA for a network engineer with 10 years of experience.

            Good luck filling that one. Nobody with 10 years of experience is going to be interested in working on site there for an 8 month contract. Not gonna happen. Didn’t even mention pay, which I’m sure is suitably low.

            Then there was another one where they appear to be wanting someone to pull network cable that has network engineering experience. Wait, what?

          12. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Funny thing is I keep getting emails from recruiters looking to fill VDOT contract positions. I’ve probably gotten at least 10 of them over the last year.

            The most ridiculous of them was an 8-month, on-site job in Staunton, VA for a network engineer with 10 years of experience.

            Good luck filling that one. Nobody with 10 years of experience is going to be interested in working on site there for an 8 month contract. Not gonna happen. Didn’t even mention pay, which I’m sure is suitably low.

            Then there was another one where they appear to be wanting someone to pull network cable that has network engineering experience. Wait, what?

          13. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Funny thing is I keep getting emails from recruiters looking to fill VDOT contract positions. I’ve probably gotten at least 10 of them over the last year.

            The most ridiculous of them was an 8-month, on-site job in Staunton, VA for a network engineer with 10 years of experience.

            Good luck filling that one. Nobody with 10 years of experience is going to be interested in working on site there for an 8 month contract. Not gonna happen. Didn’t even mention pay, which I’m sure is suitably low.

            Then there was another one where they appear to be wanting someone to pull network cable that has network engineering experience. Wait, what?

          14. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I’ve got the impression at times that the folks in charge sometimes don’t have a clue what IT is
            in terms of specific skills and tasks.

          15. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I do too, and these emails certainly reinforce that impression.

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Anybody can follow a recipe… but if that is what you need, perfect match. I need real science and the ability to write…

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            If that’s what you think engineering is, “following a recipe”, then we’ll have to disagree on that one.

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Drawing a lot grading plan and designing a septic system are (btw, the important part of septic design is actually done by a soils scientist typically)… I wasn’t surprised to discover that PE exam is open book… PGs across America are like… “really…!?”

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Law says the following. My system is “sufficiently complex to require the practice of engineering”, therefore, a PE was required to design it. (The AOSE exam is also open-book, and you don’t even need a degree, “Have 4 years of full-time experience* evaluating site and soil conditions and designing alternative
            onsite sewage systems.”

            B. An AOSE may submit site and soil evaluations as described in this chapter for any
            traditional system regardless of whether the system design requires an engineer. An
            AOSE however, may only submit system designs and specifications for systems that do
            not require the practice of engineering. When a system is sufficiently complex to require
            the practice of engineering, formal plans and specifications, sealed by a Professional
            Engineer (PE) shall be required.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            But doesn’t VDH have to approve any designs?

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Yes. I don’t expect the VDH would approve a system like mine unless a PE stamp is on the drawings.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            but that probably also means that someone who is a credentialed/experienced
            PE works for VDH and is qualified to review and approve, right?

          7. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That I do not know.

            I do know for the purposes of getting a building permit, in Prince William County having the PE stamp on the plans means you can waive plan review, which is what I did. Got the building permit several weeks sooner.

            That PE stamp carries a lot of weight…

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Down this way, the “plan” has to be done by a certified engineer… I forget what flavor but was
            told it’s a no go if you try to do it yourself.

          9. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            What I saw is that an AOSE (who is not a PE) can design a simple system. More complex ones must be designed by a PE. Probably any “alternative” system is a complex one requiring a PE for design.

          10. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            haven’t been to the health dept in awhile but seemed like they wanted a “certified” stamp
            on the paperwork.

          11. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            On the other hand.. if “following a recipe” is what engineering has really degraded into in this modern age…

            …it would certainly explain why my old neighbor who is an electrical engineer was AFRAID to open his air conditioning unit to find out why it wasn’t working anymore.

            Bad capacitor. It was obvious.

  7. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    GOP! Here’s your song!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bLRaGo-Qwc

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      You got it all wrong. More like this.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jI_oBXzLNmw

  8. Fred Costello Avatar
    Fred Costello

    Republicans do not realize that reason has been replaced by emotions, especially in the young voters.

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