This November there will be another federal election. As always in a mid-term election all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for grabs. This election is a bit more exciting than usual due to the prospect of significant gains by the Republicans at the expense of the Democrats.
Big whoop.
In my opinion, the real action may be at the state level. Unlike Virginia, most states hold elections on the same even-numbered years as the federal election cycle. Which means that many statehouses are in contention this November. A recent Rasmussen poll predicts that the final governor count will be GOP – 28, Dems – 15 with 7 “too close to call”. You can see more details here.
Who cares and so what? The number “33” has a certain mystical meaning. For starters, it is emblazoned on each and every bottle of Rolling Rock beer. Perhaps more importantly, from a political perspective, it represents 2/3 of the 50 states. Article V of the US Constitution defines the two ways that the constitution can be amended. The first approach involves the Congress proposing amendments which are then ratified (or not) by the states. The second approach allows the states to demand that Congress call a constitutional convention. Both approaches require a 3/4 vote by the states to ratify the amendment(s).
The Republicans are within earshot of 33.
Governors are not state legislatures and it’s unlikely that the Republicans will win enough of the “too close to call” elections to get 33+ governorships. However, I sense a trend among Republicans at the state level. Fed up with the federal government and convinced that special interests have a death lock on Capitol Hill, more and more Republican state legislators are talking about the 10th Amendment. Are we getting to a point where Republicans control enough state houses to start threatening the federal politicians with a demand for a constitutional convention? Bet on it. As the Bush meltdown becomes the Obama long recession, the flames of resentment against the federal government grow among the voters – especially the Republican voters. And nothing warms the cockles of Republican hearts like a promise to “do something” about “Washington”. What could be a better way of “doing something” than forcing a constitutional convention on the federal establishment – whether they like it or not?
How long will it take for some Republican to start talking about a constitutional convention mandated by the state legislatures? I’d guess Nov. 3.
Will it happen? Will there really be a state mandated convention? Will the US Constitution be rewritten? Of course not. Remember, we’re talking about politicians here … not real people. However, the talk will happen and sometimes talk is enough to make a slight difference. Perhaps the federal “ruling class” will back down a bit when faced by even the threat of a non-violent rebellion by the states. Then again, perhaps pigs will sprout wings and start mating with sparrows.