Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

READING AND VIEWING

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

Bacon’s Rebellers seem to have tired of commenting on DeGrowth for now.

Much more on that topic later – first EMR considers what comes AFTER the Autonomobile and why small REALLY IS beautiful but before that…

A short item on important reading and viewing:

Bill Lucy (Prof. William H. to his friends) at UVA has a new book out titled “Foreclosing the Dream.”

EMR does not yet have a copy – the publisher (APA) is intent on slowing the economy by taking over a week to ship a book. However, based on the review in “New Urban News” and on the material on the publishers web site it is well worth ordering.

“Foreclosing the Dream” continues the theme of his last two books – the decline of ‘sub’Urban settlement patterns and revival of housing in the Core, especially close to the Zentrum and near shared-vehicle station platforms.

This time he focuses on what the location of mortgage foreclosures tells us about the future of human settlement patterns. Larry G’s neighbors will NOT be happy.

Lucy takes a nation-state wide view – the 62 largest MSAs which are the New Urban Regions of about a million population and larger. He is limited by existing data sources and lack of a Conceptual Framework to working with county data and so it is a broad brush look, but he draws some striking conclusions.

EMR has recently looked at price trends and foreclosure data by 10 Mile Radius Bands for the National Capital SubRegion and found trends which point in exactly the same direction as Lucy’s work with county data.

“Foreclosing the Dream” offers real hope that the strategy outlined in PROPERTY DYNAMICS could be an important step.

As quoted by the reviewers, Bill is still struggling with woeful Vocabulary limitations and lack of an overarching Conceptual Framework, but we will work on that with him – if he will just listen :>)

On the viewing front:

MGM (Marcellus Gas Man) suggests those interested in THE OTHER petroleum disaster tune into HOB at 9:00 PM this evening for “Gasland” on the Marcellus Shale issue.

WaPo has a review in Style today.

Have a great week.

EMR

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

58 responses to “READING AND VIEWING”

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The review in New Urban News can be found at:

    http://www.newurbannews.com/15.4/foreclosures.html

    Hey EMR, I thought you did not support New Urbanism?

    CJC

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I just can't abide a writer who refers to himself in the third person. It sounds incredibly pompous — right up there with the imperial "we".

    Bubberella

  3. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    CJC:

    You misunderstand:

    EMR reads many sources with many points of view.

    New Urban News publishes a lot of good information and is worth every penny of the subscription.

    Exec Editor Phil Langdon is a former sports writer from Buffalo who moved to New Haven. We met during the Disney’s America debate.

    Phil has a good grasp of a lot of settlement pattern related issues even if he does spend too much time with New Urbanist Architects.

    Just to be clear:

    EMR believes that New Urbanism embraces a lot of good ideas, especially at the Unit, Cluster and Neighborhood scales.

    New Urbanist architects and planners tend to get lost in space beyond that. It is a problem that all Enterprises have when trying to make money in a market environment created by uninformed citizens who have eaten the Apple of Business-As-Usual.

    Read Lucy’s book for an antidote.

    Specifically:

    The Transect is almost never an accurate profile of actual settlement patterns.

    New Urbanists support shared-vehicle systems but have done little to help citizens move beyond the Age of the Autonomobile at the Alpha Community, SubRegional or Regional scales.

    There is only a little overlap between New Urbanism and the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.

    Hope that helps.

    EMR

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Someone who calls herself 'Bubberella' probably cannot abide a lot of things.

    There is a specific reason why EMR uses EMR and we.

    Those of us who admire his work do not get hung up on trivia.

    AZA

  5. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Just an update on mortgages in the south Exurbs of NoVa.

    The short answer is that things are better.

    Houses are selling again – both previously-owned ones that have been on the market for a while and brand new ones.

    A new development 3 miles from where I live that backs up to a National Park has 30 more houses than it had at this time last year plus a bunch of "sold" signs on the yet-to-be-built-on lots.

    Work on a new VRE Station will begin with 12 months or so…

    and the county is actively pursuing some version of UDAs that the state has mandated.

    I have absolutely no doubt that this "recovery" is due almost entirely to more govt jobs and not private sector jobs – except of course that new homes provide such jobs and benefit from the "ripple" effect.

    That's the thing about the Washington Metro MSA – it's not a "normal" MSA.

    Something else not particularly "normal" is the fact that much of NoVa is "blue" politically but the outer exurbs are about 60% "red" and were definitely "not" with Obama – despite the fact that the vast, vast majority of the commuters from NoVa to the Exurbs are….you guessed it – govt workers…or allied companies…

    and you can bet that if we talk about the unsustainability of our longer term deficits and make reference to doing away with the home mortgage deduction and the $200+ commuting "subsidy" that many commuters receive that major wailing and gnashing of teeth would ensure forthwith

  6. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Hey Larry!

    I hear some whistling down by the graveyard vis a vis Spotsylvania County home values.

    Go to http://www.zillow.com

    On the home page check out the “Four Myths” about the current shelter market based on what is happening to the Zillow averages across the US.

    Then type in your street address and zip code – or any of the dwellings that have existed for five or more years. (The data on new sales can be misleading because there is no history about what was planned for the site before 2007, what the builder may have been asking before it was sold, speical locations like sites backed up the the National Battlefield, etc.)

    In a quick survey of Spotsylvania County, EMR found no unit that had not lost value over the last six months and no unit that has recently sold for as much as the Zillow average which is based on past sales in the zip code or other comparables.

    Do not feel like the lone ranger.

    Except for rare, special cases almost nothing outside the 30 Mile Radius Band in the National Capital SubRegion is NOT going down.

    (Of course there are hundreds of ‘rare cases’ out of the tens of thousands of dwellings that have recently sold / been foreclosed or are now for sale.)

    Now read the review of Bill Lucy’s book and see how you feel about the quality of residential investment in what EMR has been calling dysfunctional settlement patterns for 22 years.

    On the other hand, EMR agrees with you on the ‘strength’ of the National Capital SubRegion’s Agency-spending based economy.

    But also see what Richard Florida says about this SubRegion in his new book "The Great Reset."

    Times are NOT "achanging," they have CHANGED.

    Are you ready for the future?

    EMR

  7. Hyder Avatar
    Hyder

    I think when the price gets right, someone will buy. They will consider the costs of transportation when they buy, but their consideration may not be adequate, considering the volatility of fuel prices.

    If fuel and transportation costs go up, the cost of a nice, spacious, quiet home in the burbs or countryside will go down to compensate, and there will be increased impetus to create nearby jobs to support them.

    Urban homes will be more expensive to plan, to construct, and to maintain, and taxes on them will be higher. Even so, they will be subsidized because they won't pay for their own true environmental footprint.

    The markets go up and go down, and the market for foreclosures is no different. If you close on a mortgage this week you can get a zero points rate as low as 4.75%. That is free money if you believe we are in line for a big round of government spending based inflation.

    Companies that make money will still make money, even if the money itself is reduced to the value of wampum. Those that invest in profit will be better off than those that do not.

    In April of 2009 37,967 homes were sold in California at a media n price of $230,000 and half of them were foreclosures. In April 2010 40,965, homes were sold with a median price of $278,000 and 35% of them were foreclosures.

    There must be a lot of rare cases in California, and I got hammered onte assessment for my tiny, two hundred year old farm cottage. I guess that dump is a rare case, too.

    "Sales rose across the San Francisco Bay Area last in May in many mid- to high-end neighborhoods, helping to push the median sale price over $400,000 for the first time in 21 months. But as tax credits, low mortgage rates and an ample supply of homes for sale fueled the $500,000-plus market, sales fell in many affordable inland areas where investors and first-time buyers faced a dwindling inventory of low-cost foreclosures."

    Zillow thinks my Alexandria home is worth almost 50% more than the lender who refinanced it thinks it is worth, but Zillow has never seen it. I wouldn't stake out zillow as any kind of expert, much as I would like to believe their estimate. What I do know is that it now costs me less, thanks to the re-fi, and it is being rented for more, so someone thinks it is worth more. (It's inside the 30 mile zone though.)

    Yep, some things are changing and some things have changed. Every change is an opportunity for the one who reads it right and a risk for the one who reads it wrong.

    And it does not even matter, whether the change is up, or down.

    RH

  8. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Oh the prices have dropped for sure. For a while there the average price was down to below 200K so the homes have lost value but they are again selling.

    Gotta remember, we have a ton of Government employees with permanent jobs… durable monthly incomes.. for mortgage payments.

    a far different situation where in some urban areas – the jobs themselves simply went away and no money or mortgages, ergo – default and the jobs have not come back and in some cases are not expected to.

    The more Obama spends – the better NoVa gets, eh?

  9. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    "The more Obama spends – the better NoVa gets, eh?".

    Yeah … kind of like Athens and Greece. Or Dublin and Ireland. Or Lisbon and Portugal.

    What was it Maggie Thatcher said? The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.

  10. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I was hoping that comment would get a rise out of Groveton.

    Groveton – we could balance the budget and put the structural deficit to bed if we:

    1. – got rid of the home mortgage interest deduction for anything other than one owner-occupied residence.

    2. – tax as compensation – all health care plans that are currently exempt for no good reason.

    3. over the next 5 years, raise the retirement age one year each year so that at the end of five years, the retirement age for SS and Medicare is 70.

    4. Charge parents for any education that is over and above the SOL curriculum.

    This is what the State and Feds do already by the way – they ONLY fund things that are SPECIFIC to the SOLs and NCLB.

    The rest is local discretionary funding for "amenities" to build high school college resumes.

    5. – Devote the gas tax to maintenance and operation only and any new roads will requires either tolls or property tax referenda.

    We can do this.

    as soon as we stop kidding ourselves that it is "others" who are causing the "Greece" problem.

    BTW – I'm holding out for steak.. no freaking cheap_ss cheeseburger

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    All good ideas Larry.

    Shame Groveton has gone into brain freeze, he used to have some good ideas.

    On the SubRegional Economy.

    I took EMR advice and started Florida's new book.

    His data suggests it is not just fed spending. I think Fuller says the same thing.

    Please Groveton check the data before you haul out more Thacher jokes. You sound like Cato.

    Observer.

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Instead of bopping around the Internet looking for seemingly relevant factoids hydra needs to read Lucy's book.

    The change in California sales and foreclosures have nothing to do with 'things truning around.'

    RMJ

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I have read it. It is a masterpiece of distorted statistics.

    The changes in California are ral for California.

    Of course, predicting decline and disaster is always more popular and lucrative than predicting business as usual, but it is business as usual that got that name for a reason.

    I notice you can't resist taking a poke at me personally, not having any way to deny the fact that home sales and home prices in California are, in fact, up since last year.

    Hey, when you can't abide the facts, just lash out: it is the Copernicus Syndrome.

    RH

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Thanks a lot Larry. Statistically, my chances of seeing 70 are not very good. I was planning on 59, but that slipped to 62, due to recent events.

    RH

  15. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    get rid of the home mortgage interest deduction for anything other than one owner-occupied residence.

    Well, at least we got that far. But if it is not owner occuped and not a true second home, then it is an investment property and the interest is deductable anyway.

    I don't see you save very much.

    RH

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    BTW – I'm holding out for steak.. no freaking cheap_ss cheeseburger

    I highly recommend "Frogs and Friends". It is an unlikely looking french food place directly across from the stockyards, but the interior is pleasant and the food is delicious.

    Another excellent oddball is the Tapas bar someone thought to locate in Warrenton, of all places.

    RH

  17. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What I suspect happened in California is what happened three miles from Larry’s house in Spotsy.

    The price of dwellings went down so far that some with money were willing to bet that they could jump in and get a dwelling that used to be work $600K for $250K and it would not go down farther.

    What is important is the trajectory of the value curve.

    It is down in Spotsy, in Merced and in all the other places that county data is fine enough grained to illustrate settlement pattern dysfunction due to what Dr. Risse calls scatteration.

    CJC

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The price of dwellings went down so far that some with money were willing to bet that they could jump in and get a dwelling that used to be work $600K for $250K and it would not go down farther.

    In other words, the market works.

    Let me ask you something. How much would prices have to go up, before you admit being wrong?

    "Sales rose across the Bay Area last in May in many mid- to high-end neighborhoods, helping to push the median sale price over $400,000 for the first time in 21 months. But as tax credits, low mortgage rates and an ample supply of homes for sale fueled the $500,000-plus market, sales fell in many affordable inland areas where investors and first-time buyers faced a dwindling inventory of low-cost foreclosures.

    High value homes are still on the market, contrary to your analysis. affordable homes are dwindling ininventory and yu can expect this will cause the prices to rise.

    And this is in inland areas otherwise known as the suburbs.

    RH

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Meced county is what, twice the the size of all of Northern VA? How is the data more fine grained there?

    RH

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/497de980426de7ccb96eff03cc9fa30a/REL10Q1T_rev.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=497de980426de7ccb96eff03cc9fa30a

    Anyone who wants to can look at the data and decide for them selves if the trend is up, down, or equivocal.

    RH

  21. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    And, if you don;t like California Data……

    "Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region expanded for the fifth consecutive month, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Looking at the main components of activity, shipments were virtually unchanged, while employment grew at a modest pace, and new orders grew more slowly. Other indicators varied."

  22. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    "Tysons Corner residents either love area's convenience or hate the traffic mess"

    Interesting Article in Today's Post.

    Seems to be some confusion as to wht the geography of Tysons is.

    RH

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    If anyone wanted a clear demonstration of why Geographic Illiteracy and Spacial Obliviousness are terrible maladies and why widespread Geographic Illiteracy and Spacial Obliviousness will make it hard – perhaps impossible – for humans to create a sustainable trajectory for civilization…

    Look no farther than the comments by “Hyder,” “Anonymous” and “Hydra” that are initialed by “RH” since 3:28 PM yesterday:

    He seemed to have missed the point that:

    “Except for rare, special cases almost nothing outside the 30 Mile Radius Band in the National Capital SubRegion is NOT going down.”

    RH went on a tear in an attempt to discredit Prof. Risse without understanding the objective of the context of the original post and tossed on several questionable assertions:

    “… increased impetus to create nearby jobs to support them…”

    It is physically impossible to put jobs ‘nearby’ scattered Urban dwellings because the dwellings are SCATTERED.

    There is no evidence that Jobs are moving ‘out’ except where there is a strong possibility of achieving Balance in a specific location.

    There is much data to indicate that Jobs are moving ‘in’ because that is where those with hard-to-find talent wants to live … see Lucy and Florida.

    “…Urban homes will be more expensive to plan, to construct, and to maintain…”

    Not if they match the needs of those who occupy them rather than being seen as a speculative investment.

    The way to drive down the price is to provide more dwellings where citizens want them. But what does this have to do with the core positions of Professor Lucy or Dr. Risse?

    The remarks are just an unsubstantiated broadside to make it seem plausible that there is a basis for continued scatteration of Urban dwellings because that is what will benefit those who would profit from the creation of more dysfunctionally located dwellings.

    The California statement that is cited as proof that Lucy and Risse are wrong is for the entire state and the specifics cited are for the ‘Bay Area.’ These numbers include SubRegions where the prices are going up and SubRegions that are going down. The locations where the house values never went down, have stabilized and / are now going up are, as noted by Dr. Risse are in the Cores and close to the Zentrum OR near shared-vehicle station platforms.

    The reasons that dwellings in other locations are going down is that they are in scattered, remote, dysfunctional locations vis a vis Jobs and Services.

    In fact the same blanket (and confusing) statement that quoted about the Bay Area could be made about most of the largest New Urban Regions is the US – especially those that are topography constrained – San Francisco, Boston and Los Angles. The statement does not undermine the points made by Professor Lucy or by Dr. Risse. In fact the statement demonstrates why the data on spacial distribution WITHIN New Urban Regions is so important.

    If one does not understand the context, it is hard to make rational arguments as to why the findings are not true or not important. If you do not know what you are talking about, you do not know what you are talking about and it shows.

    AZA with input from CJC and RMJ

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The Zillow projections of value lag because they use comparables. The market is falling OUTSIDE R= 30 but it is rising INSIDE R = 20. (In the R=20 and R=30 Radius Band it is a mixed bag that varies by Cluster, Neighborhood and Village.

    Professor Lucy’s data is called “… a masterpiece of distorted statistics….”

    Now there is a fact filled rebuttal worth of careful consideration …

    And speaking of not understanding what the topic is:

    “… how much would prices have to go up, before you admit being wrong?”

    No one said some prices were not inching back up in some SubRegions, or that in some Metropolitan Areas the prices had not improved. As demonstrated by the Realtor.org table cited by RH, the biggest gains from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 were where the prices had fallen the most – Akron Ohio back up to $95,500 from $50,100 and Saginaw back up to $60,800 from $30,300.

    The book by Lucy, the original post and the reason for the discussion is about WHERE and WHY house prices had gone down and are still going down – in R = 30 plus even if they are ‘recovering’ inside R = 20.

    “Merced is what, twice the size of all of Northern VA?”

    CJC noted Merced County because Los Banos in western Merced County is about as far from jobs in South Bay as Culpeper is from the Zentrum of the National Capital Subregion. AND THE PRICES ARE GOING DOWN THERE.

    But the larger question is: What does the size of Merced County have to do with anything under discussion in the post other than trying to pick a fight or make the person who made the comment look silly?

    Given the Clear Edges around the Urban enclaves in most Central Valley Counties, the dwellings are not scattered and so County size is not even relevant. One would know that if they understood the basic ideas being discussed.

    The proof that the commentor knows nothing about which he speaks is the link to realtor.org data. That data is for METROPOLITAN AREAS and has NOTHING to do with the topic under discussion. The whole reason Lucy wrote the book was to look beyond Metropolitan averages.

    Likewise, the manufacturing data has no more relevance to the overarching trend of home values outside R = 30 than does the stock market or the soccer scores.

    Like the residents of Tysons, there is “some confusion as to geography” also known as Geographic Illiteracy and Spacial Obliviousness.

    AZA with input from CJC and RMJ

  25. hydra Avatar
    hydra

    Aza

    I said not one word about emr.

    I merely presented factual data-with sources anyone can see and interpret.

    I can tell you my properties were assessed more this year than last. Every economic indicator I know of is up and trending up. Pickup truck sales are up and more of them are running around towing bobcats and other equipment.

    I stand by my comment-Merced is nearly twice the size of what is usually called Nova and has no more granular data. Lucy's book is a masterpiece of statistical disinformation formulated to sell a viewpoint rather than to elucidate useful truth.

    Urban homes will be more expensive to plan,to build, to maintain,and to support regardless of their investment status. They enjoy massive subsidies by virtue of not paying full locational cost for their true environmental footprint. In Fauquier this is evidenced by the government acknowledged fact that farms pay twice in taxes what they cost in services with the excess supporting homes like the one EMR lives in.

    In my professional world you don't get very far if you design a solution that violates the known and observable facts. At best it is a waste of resources and at worst it gets people killed.

    Insane people can fabricate any reality they like, but the rest of the world is unlikely to join them in it.

    Rh

  26. jydra Avatar
    jydra

    Whether Rissel is right or wrong is of no interest to me, and how he rationalized his facts is up to him. I could care less one way or the other. There is no attempt to discredit, to prove him wrong ad me right.

    I just look out the window and I see things that don't match his description of them. I write checks and get checks for things he says are not happening. My last four tenants all left because they bought there own homes. I see huge office Parks full of jobs and each new one farther from the Washington. Monument than the last. I used to test rocket motors in Alexandria then Mannassas and now they are in Orange, but of course the jobs have not moved out.

    One fact he can't change whether he is right or wrong is that he has not convinced me and I'm easy to convince. You just need a theory that matches what I see and experience or at least does not fly in the face of it.

    I know there is a flashing green bell off of West Chop. If you tell me I'm geographically illiterate and it is really six miles from the zentrum of Vineyard Haven, well that's not much help.

    Rh

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Come on AZA, CJC AND RMJ,

    Give it up!

    Someone smart enough to operate a computer is smart enough to know he is just trying to console those who are clinging to the hope that Reality is just a nightmare and that The Great Recession will just go away like the last seven.

    He must know the discussion is about location and that most of what he says in response to EMR’s post is pure baloney.

    RH’s intent is to keep you occupied so you will not have time to help citizens understand the truth. Or, even more scary, he really believes what he is saying and knows his whole house of cards will fold if he admits he does understand what is going on, and where it is happening.

    After reading today’s Wash Post concerning housing (“Home resales sink, with recovery hopes”) and about the location of population growth in the last year – inside R=30 (“2009 was marked by fast growth in N. Va.”), one is tempted to ask:

    “What does it take to get you to admit you are wrong?”

    But we will not ask, it only encourages more blabber.

    By the way what did you think of that “Gasland” show?

    MGM

  28. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    As I recall this is the same guy that said everything would be fine when the Dow went past 10,000.

    Well it looks like it is on the way to passing 10,000 for the sixth time since he made that statement.

  29. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    It is was established long ago that RH has no choice. He is paid to do this so everyone, including MGM, are wasting their time. The more they respond, the more he makes.

  30. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Well it looks like it is on the way to passing 10,000 for the sixth time since he made that statement.

    So I was right six times.

    What I said was that a long term regression of the mean would put the Dow around 10,000 today. Therefore all the wailing and moaning over big losses in the market was just noise since the buble profits (and losses for those who did not get out) were anomalous anyway.

    as far as I know that statement was correct then and it is correct now – and everythig is fine.

    What is your point, aside from making a personal dig at me?

    RH

  31. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    No one has established that I get paid for doing this, or that anyone would be willing to pay me to do this.

    If you find someone, let me know.

    RH

  32. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    MGM is right, the great recession will go away like the last seven.

    I don't understand what EMR and the sahdes are worried about. I seriously the "Great Recession" had any more effect on EMR than it did on me.

    As far as my day to day life goes, it didn't change a thing, just some paper difference in my assessments is all. Big deal.

    RH

  33. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “What does it take to get you to admit you are wrong?”

    I wasn't trying to be funny or sarcastic, that was a real question.

    Would the Dow at 16,000, home prices uniforly up by 40%, and unemployment and interest rates under 3% and a 30% increase in renewable power do it?

    Would doubling the build out of jobs in the 28 and 234 bypass corridors confince you that jobs are moving away from the center?

    I don't think so. You would still be rationalizing and data bending you r way deeper into what Galuzka calls the World of New Urbanism.

    If things got that good you would be berserkers over rampant consumption, and windfall profits.

    I have freely admitted when I made mistakes, but I've never seen that happen form EMR or the shades, so I was just wopndering how far out of bounds reality would have to escape their theory before they thought it might need revision.

    RH

  34. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    “According to the OHFHEO index, since early 2007 home prices in rural areas have risen slightly more than 2%. Though small this increase compares favorably with the severe declines of nearly 8 percent in metro-area home prices during the same period."

    Chase Wilkerson Vice president, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    RH

    There is no doubt that location plays a part in home prices. So does condition, job availability, availability and cost of credit, local building restrictions, and a host of other factors.

    There is nothing wrong with EMR's argument about outside of R30 other than it misses most of the issues involved.

  35. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    The continued availability of government guaranteed mortgages for rural homebuyers was virtually assured yesterday when the House Financial Services Committee voted to approve H.R. 5017. The unanimous vote will send the Rural Housing Preservation and Stabilization Act of 2010 to the full House of Representatives where sources said it was fast tracked for a vote as early as next week.

    If passed, the bill will correct the Section 502 Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program to make it self-funding. Section 502 assists homebuyers living in rural areas to obtain affordable mortgages guaranteed by the Department of Agriculture (USDA). These loan guarantees have become enormously popular during the financial crisis and consumer demand has tripled the annual number of loans that are typically issued each year.

    April 23 2010
    MDN

    Looks like Dept of Agriculture is not on EMRs side.

    RH

  36. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    That data is for METROPOLITAN AREAS and has NOTHING to do with the topic under discussion.

    The data clearly shows that on average the sky is not falling andit also clearly shows some metro areas are doing better than others.

    The reason Lucy wrote the book was to prove a point not to discover the truth.

    In the process he also reinforces that point to those that wish to believe it, and maybe makes some money off the deal.

    RH

  37. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    OK, lets give credit where credit is due.

    Perhaps we have all been too hard of RH.

    In a recent post he stated very clearly why Geographic Illiteracy and Spacial Obliviousness is so important to overcome and why creating a consensus supporting functional human settlement patterns will be so hard.

    When discussing the need to evolve functional and sustainable settlement patterns one often hears:

    “What do you mean I contribute to settlement pattern dysfunction? I LIVE in human settlement pattern, I see it every day and I KNOW ….”

    RH said:

    “I just look out the window and I see things that don't match (Professor Risse’s] description of them…”

    RH looks out the window and sees a level horizon and believes the Earth is Flat.

    Lets look at the issue of Job location:

    RH says:

    “I see huge office Parks full of jobs and each new one farther from the Washington Monument than the last. I used to test rocket motors in Alexandria then Manassas and now they are in Orange, but of course the jobs have not moved out.”

    And the facts?

    Never has there been a time since 1800 when more jobs were added outside R=10 than inside R = 10. (Tysons Corner is at R = 7 to R = 9 from the Centroid of the National Capital Subregion.)

    At no time since I first heard EMR discuss this topic in the late 80s has any creditable source suggested that more jobs had been added outside R=10, nor has there been a time when more jobs were projected to added in the future outside than inside R=10.

    This includes Wash COG, the Bureau of Census, Steve Fuller when he was at GW or since he moved to GMU and started The Center for Regional Analysis. The Washington Post has had several feature sections on where the jobs are and Risse did a column (24 May 2004) on the topic and includes the maps and graphs to document this in PowerPoints on both of his CDs.

    The COG Activity Center Analysis nailed this down and documented there was plenty of land for future Jobs AND for the Households to support them inside R=20 for the foreseeable future.

    Those who understand the First Natural Law of Human Settlement Pattern ( A= BR2 ) know how important this fact is.

    Yes, some jobs have moved ‘out’ but more and more are concentrated inside R=10. The ones inside and outside R=20 need to be located in close proximity to those who will hold those Jobs.

    Ask those who have analyzed the impact of AOL relocation west of VA Route 28 how smart that was.

    Check the market. Where do Enterprises pay the highest rents?

    What RH sees out his Prius window deludes him because it does not fit his preconceived notions.

    Observer

  38. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Part 2

    And about shelter and Household location?

    RH says: “My last four tenants all left because they bought there own homes.”

    That may be the case. NVTA loves to cite percentage growth of outer jurisdictions with smaller population bases to raise the specter of thousands of new commuters for whom new roads will be needed.

    However, there has never been a time since WW II when the Region added more Households outside R=30 than inside R=30 (Leesburg and Gainesville are at or near R=30) There have been only a few years when more Households were added outside R=20 than inside R=20 and that was due to massive subsidy and the fact that location variable costs were not paid by those who benefitted from the new construction.

    Lucy’s data documents that the tide started to turn from moving outward to moving inward after 1990 census.

    Florida lays out the reasons and why most new Jobs will follow the Households IN.

    Households are moving IN because of the market demand for access to Jobs and Services that will never be found outside R = 20 for most Households. This is in spite of higher per square foot costs due to an inequitable allocation of location variable costs.

    RH says:

    “I write checks and get checks for things he says are not happening.”

    If RH cannot understand the data on Jobs and Housing, it is unlikely that facts support his other perceptions and beliefs.

    If RH cannot understand the importance of Regional location, it is not possible to understand the parameters of a rational and fair allocation of costs.

    That explains why he has gotten the costs and benefits of alternative settlement patterns exactly backwards.

    Dr. Risse had a post on “naive realism” and RH provides a perfect example of why this topic is important.

    As pointed out in the 3 June 2010 post “Roadblocks,” naive realism is about deeply held beliefs that are simple (and sometimes or simplistic) but do not reflect complex reality. Naive realism is central to understanding the critical importance of human settlement patterns and developing a consensus on the path to functional and sustainable distribution of human activity.

    RH says:

    “You just need a theory that matches what I see and experience or at least does not fly in the face of it.”

    When what one sees out the window is a flat earth, then there are few theories that match that perception.

    One also must question RH’s attention to detail.

    RH says: “MGM is right, the great recession will go away like the last seven.”

    What MGM said was it was a delusion that the Great Recession will go away like the last seven.

    It is nice he has not yet been impacted by the Great Recession. I expect Jim Bacon will document in his new book that RH’s statement is like the fellow who did not know his throat was slit until someone asked him to shake his head.

    Perhaps RH will go to his reward before he is impacted. What about the next generation? What about all those that are already in despair?

    Observer

  39. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    That data is for METROPOLITAN AREAS and has NOTHING to do with the topic under discussion.

    “The data clearly shows that on average the sky is not falling and it also clearly shows some metro areas are doing better than others.”

    No one is disagreeing with what the METROPOLITAN AREA data show.

    That is NOT the point. It is irrelevant and misleading to even post it.

    Anyone reading the original post or these comments knows that.

    The earlier Anon must be right.

    RH gets paid by the word he incites others to post.

    What a sad case. It is not just naive reality, it is malicious sabotage of useful dialogue.

  40. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I found this an interesting commentary:

    https://www.baconsrebellion.com/2010/06/23/livable-town-center-communities-the-washington-post-got-it-wrong/

  41. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry:

    Palatiello is correct on a number of points but the biggest thing is that he demonstrates the absolute necessity for a robust Vocabulary.

    The commentor with a Segway expands the “walking distance” and the value of Small, Private Vehicles.

    Your comment on HOT Lanes is correct except that you did not point out that HOV and HOT lanes require the use of Large, Private Vehicle which have a short life expectancy, especially if enough people buy Segways and move to Reston Town (aka, Village) Centers.

    By the way “Mr. Ybarra” is a she – Shirley. She is a road and Large Private Vehicle flack from WAY back.

    EMR

  42. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    EMR – our local MPO is sponsoring a land-use Scenario for the upcoming 25 years.

    Their core premise is that we will gain as much new population as we did in the last 25 years – based on what the Census folks and Weldon Cooper folks project.

    From that point on they are asking should we develop "dense" at locations along I-95 or not….

  43. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry:

    Sad movie.

    EMR

  44. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    And the facts?

    The fact are that in recent years my job moved AWAY from the center (where I bought my first home) three times.

    Of COURSE much of what happened since 1800 was closer in – there was no need for more space and no good way to use it.

    Choosing the start and end date is a common way of distorting the data. The fact still remains that dozens of labor campuses have been built in recent years that are far from the center.

    EMR himself used to argue over a ten mile limit to development, but he has quietly given up on that in favor of 30.

    You cannot make a fact by simply stating a fact or deny my experience of three job moves by demeaning me as a flat earther.

    I am not. So make your argument and keep it clean by leaving me out of it.

    But the truth does includes my experience as well as EMR's observations and many others also. It is EMRs insistence that ONLY his view is correct that is false and misleading.

    Nothing he says can change the FACTS that I observe and experience, even if they are a tiny part of a larger truth.

    RH

  45. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    When my job first moved from Alexandria to Gainesville I had an easy reverse commute. By the time that work moved to ORANGE the reverse commute was much more crowded.

    This was becasue of all the OTHER jobs that moved away from the center or were created away from the center.

    That is a FACT that I observed and you cannot change.

  46. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    At no time since I first heard EMR discuss this topic in the late 80s has any creditable source suggested that more jobs had been added outside R=10,

    This is simply not true, but I'll leave you to research it yourself. I'm not doing your homework since you will dismiss mine anyway.

    Regardless of the numbers, the salient point is that some jobs are being added outside of R20 and out as far as R30. That is going to change the "balance". Denying that this truth is happening by arguing about numbers inside of R10 is playing the red herring.

    It is also true that the quality of the jobs available in the District have declined. See the recent artice on district residents commuting outbound for work.

    RH

  47. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    It didn't matter where AOL locaed. They had a lousy business model.

    I notice the Maserati / Ferrari dealer west of Rte 28 is doing a booming business.

    RH

  48. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Until someone proves that as a nation, we are going to have a lot less babies that we have been having – then we're going to get the growth and it's going to happen when the jobs are which means not in the countryside for the most part.

    And as long as there are places like Stafford and Spotsylvania where you can buy a 3-bedroom home on 1/3 acre with a front and back yard and water/sewer and a decent school nearby – I don't see them not moving here.

    More and more of them will start riding buses and vans to get to their jobs… as opposed all of them living in multi-story residential towers.

    There is very little land land in NoVa for traditional subdivision homes that don't cost a million dollars and up whereas for 300K such an option will be available and if tolls on I-95 go to a dollar per mile.. those folks will just hop on a bus or a van or slug to get to work.

    I don't see how this changes.

    What would have to happen for this to not happen?

    Gasoline could go to $7 a gallon and all that would do would be to drive more people to buses/vans/carpools but not back to the urban core – at least I don't think.

  49. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What RH sees out his Prius window deludes him because it does not fit his preconceived notions.

    i don;t have any preconcieved notions. All I do is measur things and report on what I find, including the differences in Measurement.

    My Prius tells me that when I commute from My Alexandria house I drive slower but for the same duration in time and burn MORE fuel per mile than if I commute from the farm. Those are measured facts.

    If it were not for the fact that the hybrid shuts off while a normal car is idling it would use actually, more fuel on the shorter trip than it does on the longer one. The increased gas charge per mile would be greater than the miles saved.

    Even with the shut-off feature, at the end of a tank of fuel I will have gotten less useful travel (although maybe more trips) while living in my city location than the country location.

    This has nothing to do with my perceptions. It comes right off the mileage computer.

    Take it or leave it.

    RH

  50. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    Larry,

    I think some of both will happen. Jobs will be moved and created in Spotsy. Spotsy residents will commute, and commute in more directions.

    If that is what is going to happen and that is what people want, we may as well figure out how to make it work as well and fairly as possible, and stop dreaming up some alternative that will only happen with massive subsidies to support it.

    RH

  51. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    News FLASH:

    " Ten years ago, the world’s richest countries accounted for a significant majority of the globe’s economic activity. But the pendulum is swinging in the other direction, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

    A new O.E.C.D. report finds that rich countries and poor countries now each contribute about an equal share of the global economy. And by 2030, developing countries will account for 57 percent of world G.D.P."

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/24/poorer-countries-taking-over-global-economy/

  52. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    RH says:

    “I write checks and get checks for things he says are not happening.”

    If RH cannot understand the data on Jobs and Housing, it is unlikely that facts support his other perceptions and beliefs.

    Attack me again instead of the point at hand.

    WHAT KIND OF PERCEPTION OR BELEIFE DOES IT TAKE TO CASH OR WRITE A CHECK for crying out loud.

    A check is a written record that something happened. Business was transacted and jobs were supported.

    And maybe, even, PROFITS WERE MADE and therefore the ACTIVITY IS SUSTAINABLE.

    For a while. But without the profits it isn't sustainable even that long.

    RH

  53. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    Larry,

    I mentioned the OECD recently in an effort to point out that the world is not in economic collapse as EMR claims.

    Yet.

    It is going to be alot of fun to watch the DeGrowthers try to sell their plan to those people.

    And what do yu think is going to happen when the first cohorts from those OECD countries save up enough to move to the US?

    RH

  54. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I think as long as people buy clothes, shoes, furniture and cars that these other countries that now make these items will fare far better economically than they did when we were making these items and they were living in barter economies.

    no?

  55. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    One also must question RH’s attention to detail.

    RH says: “MGM is right, the great recession will go away like the last seven.”

    What MGM said was it was a delusion that the Great Recession will go away like the last seven.

    MGM is still right: "the recession will go away like the last seven" I was merel polite enough not to point out that the delusion part was wrong.

    One must question Observers sense of sarcasm: his is not nearly so refined.

  56. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    It is not about me or the flat earth. (You cannot work a celestial nave fix on a flat earth, by the way, it takes spherical trig. Therfore I do know from direct observation that the world is not flat. You can let that one go now.)

    The fact is every recession, ever, has eventually gone away.

    When events cause one not to go away, the recesson will be the least of our worries.

    RH

  57. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    I think as long as people buy clothes, shoes, furniture and cars that these other countries that now make these items will fare far better economically than they did when we were making these items and they were living in barter economies.

    Yes, and so will we. Although it is hard to make that argument to a former american manufacturor of baby high chairs, now unemployed.

    RH

  58. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    I didn't say I wasn't impacted, only that the impacts were on paper and have not changed my daily life.

    If you home mortgae is underwater, that's a paper impact too, unless you choose to convert it.

    If a total collpse hppens, everyones head will be onthe block, yours included. I don't see any reason in being so smug about being sure you are correct on this point.

    But, short of that, even if we wind up trading in wampum, those who understand business and profit will be better off than those who think profit is a four letter word. Those who have many interests will be better off than those with one.

    RH

Leave a Reply

Read More