Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Rail to Dulles: “Time to Think of Something Different”

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by

James A. Bacon
in

I haven’t had much nice to say about Del. David B. Albo, R-Springfield, for his obstinate stance on Abuser Fees, but he did make sense yesterday when talking about the Rail to Dulles project. On the floor of the House of Delegates, according to Amy Gardner with the Washington Post, he arose to say:

“The proponents of this thing are basically violating the rule that says that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. We’d better start thinking of something different, and we’d better start thinking of something fast.”

I guess that means Gov. Timothy M. Kaine meets the definition of insanity. The governor still hopes to salvage the $5 billion heavy rail project as currently envisioned, relying upon the federal government for $900 million. He is heartened, he said, by the apparent willingness of U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters to get to the bottom of apparent misunderstandings behind the feds’ decision to turn down the grant.

At least Kaine did say one thing yesterday that made sense: Replacing the federal funds with even higher tolls on the Dulles Toll Road is a solution he’s not willing to support. … Good… Now, if only he’d look to the property owners who stand to reap billions of dollars in increased property valuations thanks to Metro service and higher density zoning around the stations.

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  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    At current assessed value, for $5 billion, you could just buy half of FAuquier county outright, and start over.

    Just to put things in perspective.

    RH

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Kaine might just be posturing now to save face and to appease his developer pals. I suspect that he’s assembled a team to prepare Plan B, which could even constitute a reasonable transit plan. How about light rail to Dulles in the DTR median, with only those intermediate stops that would be built and paid for by landowners who want access to rail?

    Kaine’s legacy could be a strong first step towards making transportation about moving people and goods safely, efficiently and effectively instead of enriching someone who owns land and wants taxpayers to build him/her transportation access. That would be one fine legacy.

    TMT

  3. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Ray:

    Great point about the $5B. It’s easy to lose perspective with very large numbers – even when they have a dollar sign in front.

    TMT:

    Run light rail down the DTR median strip? That sounds like a good idea. Maybe if the brain trust would have put the transportation contract out to competitive bid they would have heard things like that.

    Jim:

    You have asked how much has already spent on “Rail to Dulles”. Would you believe $120M? The newly elected and ever vigilant delegate from my district (34th) has a taken a moment from her busy schedule of ignoring transportation and sponsoring legislation about puppy mills to put a statement on her web site:

    “”It would appear that the prospect of the $900 million in federal funding for the Dulles Rail project is all but dead. While the Governor and other officials have until Monday to respond to the FTA’s concerns, the rationalizations for federal refusal are unlikely to be satisfied. The failure of the federal government to negotiate in good faith with Virginia Congressional and state officials is an affront of historic proportions, particularly since Virginia officials at all levels have consistently and proactively sought to address federal concerns over months and years. On good faith, over $120 million has already been spent on this project. Business and civic leaders have invested time, money, and energy on land use as well as transportation decisions to make the decades-old plan for a rail connection to Dulles a reality.”.

    http://www.vanderhye.com/node/101

    $120M

    That’s a lot of smackeroos for some drawings. God only knows how much would have been spent if they actually built a rail line.

    But, hope springs eternal. Del. Vanderhye has confidence:

    We will continue to pursue our goal of rail to Dulles despite Federal obstacles. The public expects it, our transportation crisis requires it, and the continued economic vitality of our region depends on it.”

    Source: Ibid

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Vanderhye is the biggest dolt in the entire General Assembly bar none. The Connection newspaper poled a number of elected officials and other civic leaders. Most were concerned about the impacts on local residents, even though their views of the FTA turn-down differed.

    Here’s Delegate Vanderhye’s statement: “I think that the failure of the FTA to keep our congressional delegation and our state delegation apprised of their thinking when the state and nationally elected people acted on our behalf in good faith was an affront, because many people invested time and money and made decisions with relation to business and land use based on the expectation that they were operating on good faith, and they weren’t. I think that’s terrible.”

    Poor old Tysons Corner landowners. They were counting their taxpayer- and DTR user-paid windfalls.

    TMT

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There is a way to get the money that would normally come from the feds and that is to charge a premium for non-VA residents to use whatever gets built; say $1-2 for regular trips and $5-10 to go to Dulles. An article in today’s Post said that even with the fare increase, ridership is up this year so there may be some inelasticity of demand. I’m not sure if the state or whichever authority manages the project can get underwriting for bonds against the revenue, but it’s definitely a financing alternative to look at.

    The biggest unstated future user group of Dulles rail would be those coming from the east: Arlington, DC, and MD. For MD residents in particular it’s the difference between a 1hr metrorail trip and 1.5-2hrs on the beltway and/or 270, so there will definitely be demand. The state could even add a Tyson’s congestion charge for non-VA drivers.

    Basically if the Fed is not going to fund transportation in VA then the state needs to extract the missing revenue from non-VA users.

    As far as light rail goes, I agree that it would be cheaper, but light rail has limited capacity which I believe would be filled as soon at it opens (if it goes through Tysons), and we’d be back to square one.

    ZS

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ZS – you need to keep rail in perspective with the land use changes. One plan is to increase Tysons Corner by as much as 166% and realize that Fairfax County plans to capture only 20% of the trips to and from Tysons on rail.

    Heavy rail will generate worse traffic. Light rail could not generate as much density and traffic as heavy rail.

    TMT

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    TMT, I’m not sure why you think that heavy rail will generate more density than otherwise. The density will come to Tyson’s regardless if rail is implemented. Rail won’t instantaneously double or triple density in Tysons since the market still has to absorb new development, but no transportation improvements will still bring in substantial density increases in the future. It’s all about making money, and the landowners aren’t about to pack their bags and go home just cause Dulles rail got shot down.

    Tyson’s developers will continue to lobby to develop their properties at higher densities. There were already approvals for new buildings densities before the rail project was rejected and there will be after. They will just change their tune that they want to build a walkable downtown so they need to add more density. Since there are a number of cities with transit as poor as Tysons that are redeveloping their downtowns this won’t be a hard sale.

    Though I agree heavy rail would be a windfall in the short term for Tysons landowners, in the long run the people that actually have to go there will lose out not having an alternative.

    ZS

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ZS – You raise a good issue — the relationship of rail to density at Tysons. I’ll try to respond in kind.

    The 1994 Tysons Corner Task Force was the first to tie density to rail. It recommended additional density with the arrival of heavy rail on the assumption that it would divert the most automobile trips. It also conditioned the higher density on numerous road improvements, most of which have not been built. That tie carried through to the thinking of the current Task Force. Both the current Comp Plan for Tysons and the proposals being studied specifically tie substantial increases in density to the presence of four stations in Tysons.

    County staff seems to view rail as a condition precedent to the highest densities. Many people believe that without these four stations, the Board of Supervisors would never recommend substantially higher densities.

    It is also quite likely that, given land costs at Tysons and the cost of construction, many landowners would not build absent a substantial increase in density. I’ve been told the same by an executive for one of the larger companies holding land at Tysons.

    More density cannot come to Tysons without approval from the supervisors. Added density is predicated on the arrival of rail (and a large number of road improvements specified by the 94 Task Force, most of which have not occurred). No rail – no added density – the current FARs are not high enough to warrant the expenditures necessary to build. (As I recall, the existing FARs do not go much beyond 1.5 in most places. Some of the new proposals, premised on heavy rail, would go as high as 5.0.

    This is why Tysons Corner landowners are desperate for rail. Rail equals density. No rail means no increase in density. Rail in the DRT median with a single stop means a lot less density.

    But, as I argued too many times, no one is looking at Dulles Rail as a transportation issue, except for the FTA. One can only hope, however, that one the posturing stops, Tim Kaine will do the right thing and look at rail as a transportation issue and the landowners’ dreams for windfalls be ignored. We might even be able to improve Tysons should this occur.

    I hope this helps.

    TMT

  9. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    TMT – What I’m referring to was the approval last year for the huge expansion of the Tyson’s mall property which was done outside the task force and prior to rail line approval. There is a very real possibility that other properties could use that as precedence for further up zoning (particularly residential) based on urbanizing Tysons, possibly in exchange for money for road improvements.

    I still think that Tysons will grow regardless of when rail comes to the area, it just would have occurred faster with the rail line. There is just too much concentrated money in that area for them to sit on their hands.

    ZS

  10. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    My sense is that major cities would not exist if the argument when they were “pre-city” was that higher densities were “not possible”.

    I’m not dismissive of the LOS issues because it is undeniably real but cities do exist and in every city’s history, there was a point when they were at the stage that Tysons is at? (yes.. that IS a question).

    is this a valid question:

    “How can Tysons become a city?”

    is the answer .. that Tysons should not become a city?

    Is Tysons destined to become a city no matter what is done or not done with Dulles Rail?

    The interplay between public infrastructure and private development is a continuing theme whether it be rail or roads.

    I seriously doubt that Tysons would be what it is … without roads.

    Roads are what created Tysons – no?

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ZS – I think that there are some restrictions on both the Macerich and Lerner rezonings that are related to the availability or, at least, federal funding of rail. I cannot say this for sure, however. I have a recollection that neither owner can start building until the feds cut a check. I’m trying to find out the answer.

    Larry – Tysons was laid out for a world with fewer automobiles, but with cheap gasoline. Tysons is permitted to experience LOS E, but the sponsors of more density argue that it should fall to LOS F because that’s an urban standard.

    Think about that — they want taxpayers and Toll Road users to pay billions so that landowners could build so much that, even with rail, the transportation system deteriorates more.

    Living in Fairfax County is like being a character in a Twilight Zone episode.

    TMT

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ZS – I went to one of my land use gurus. Both Lerner’s and Macerich’s ability to build are contignent on a funding agreement from the FTA for Dulles Rail.

    No Silver Line; no density. This explains the insane feeding frenzy.

    TMT

  13. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “At least Kaine did say one thing yesterday that made sense: Replacing the federal funds with even higher tolls on the Dulles Toll Road is a solution he’s not willing to support. …”

    yup.. but with all politicians, it not what they say, it’s what they don’t say.. in this case – not said”

    “…replacing federal funds with higher tolls on the HOT lanes is not something I’d support”.

    mark my words… 🙂

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