Bacon's Rebellion

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Public School Enrollments Still Declining

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Virginia K-12 public school enrollment will decline by nearly 31,000 students, or about 2.9 percent, over the next four years, according to the demographic research group at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.

The fall-off is expected to be sharpest among high school students, which augurs negatively for future enrollment at Virginia’s universities and community colleges.

The Center based its estimates on the number of births in school districts, projecting forward five years to Kindergarten, and then adjusting for later grades by estimated percentages of students advancing to the next grade, school transfers, migration, dropouts, and deaths. Major uncertainties center around the impact of virtual learning and whether the exodus to private schools and home schools during the COVID epidemic will recede. — JAB

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27 responses to “Public School Enrollments Still Declining”

  1. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    According to the 2024 budget for Fairfax County Public Schools, the annual cost per K-12 public school pupil is $19,795, which is higher than the national average of $12,612.

    Fairfax County has 1.138M of Virginia’s 8.684M people, or 13.1%.

    .131 X 60,000 = 7,863 (size of FFX Co student drop, if proportionate)

    7,863 X $19,795 = $157,058,153 (reduced cost of educating FFX Co students per year, starting in year 4)

    $157,058,153 / 1,138,000 = #138.01 (per capita reduced costs of education in FFX Co per year)

    While not everything is linear or necessarily proportionate and acknowledging that some educational costs are fixed (over the mid term, at least) …

    When are we going to start the discussion of how much less we need to spend to educate fewer students?

    I heard Scott Surovell on the radio yesterday carping about how Youngkin’s proposed budget would decrease spending for K-12 public education in Fairfax County by something like $6M per year.

    Fewer students should result in less spending.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      “When are we going to start the discussion of how much less we need to spend to educate fewer students?”

      Your wish will be granted during the next recession or worse. In Fauquier, there was absolutely no serious push back on the school budget or the middle school renovation project gone mad.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      on average , about 20 kids per school and then divide that by how many classrooms….

    3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      Several months ago on the radio Scott said something on the radio about Virginia under-spending per student based on nat’l average, but I forget the exact quote. Sounds like that’s not true for Fairfax specifically.

    4. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      Several months ago on the radio Scott said something about Virginia under-spending per student based on nat’l average, but I forget the exact quote. Sounds like that’s not true for Fairfax specifically.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        probably means if you discount Fairfax, it will show even lower spending for some counties on average – a likely the rural ones.

        1. Matt Hurt Avatar
          Matt Hurt

          Yes sir. Just ask Norton City or Wise County, usually the two lowest funded divisions per student.

          1. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            And yet both of them had higher 2021/22 math and reading proficiency scores than did Fairfax.

  2. kls Avatar
    kls

    The declining higher education demographics have been known for years…. yet two years ago VT departments were instructed to create a five year plan…. mine developed one based on a growing enrollment base.
    I pointed out three things: the demographics, the fact that a five year plan developed in 2018/19 would have been useless within 24 months, and which entity was best known for five year plans.

  3. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    I have corrected the text to indicate that the projected student population will decline by 31,000, not 60,000. Apologies for the stupid error.

  4. B. Powell Majors Avatar
    B. Powell Majors

    Besides an exodus to non-government education, there is growing absenteeism in public school systems nationwide, not just Virginia. I am in a 9th grade English class right now in northern Virginia where a student who is not part of the class is sitting up front inhaling mucous loudly rather than blowing her nose, talking to the teachers, and singing rap songs. She does this everyday. In the classes for people with low reading and writing scores, I could do a word count and 1/3 of the words spoken by students would be the N word, b*tch, f*ck (f*cking is a synonym for “very”), d*mn, and sh*t (‘n’ sh*t is a phrase that means “and so forth”). The Latin immigrant students call each other the N word, then also call black teachers and students the N word. No one should send their child to this school unless they are in all AP and IB classes. Most kids in one AP etc. class seem to be in all AP classes – a segregated (by manners and ability) school within a school.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      I’ve been where you are at! Hold fast! 8 more weeks until summer. I remember back in 1999 I had a rowdy group of 11th graders that carried on like what you have described. I started handing out student withdrawal forms and made a bit of a spectacle out the kid in front of everyone. It did work! But then the guidance director let me have it for flooding his paper mailbox with the forms.
      https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/forms/it2.pdf

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      re: “.. . In the classes for people with low reading and writing scores,”

      so they have “special” classes for those kids?

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Yes, and here’s a video of a special ed class touring the Congress…

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y48i13fKDAE

        1. WayneS Avatar
          WayneS

          Back in the 1980s, “Special Ed” was my nickname for Edwin Meese.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            It was his nickname for a whole lot more than just you.

  5. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    I wonder how much of this is due to people NOT waiting until their youngest kid graduates high school to move out of the Commonwealth.

  6. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    This is just population drop, not also trying to calculate exodus from public K-12? I bet there will be at least that much, too.

  7. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Just think of the tragedy of teaching children not to doubt. — Clarence Darrow, lawyer and author (18 Apr 1857-1938)

  8. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    But, were they full?
    https://www.dailydot.com/debug/armed-forces-brewing-beer-can-borderwall/

    Read the room, guys.

  9. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    The definition of insanity, eh?

    Just Say ‘No!’

    RICHMOND, VA – Attorney General Jason Miyares launched a new website and advertising campaign for the public awareness initiative “One Pill Can Kill.” The One Pill Can Kill campaign will include a website with resources for Virginians, statewide billboards expected to launch in February 2024,

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      But if it saves just one life the cost will be worth it… [insert retching sound here] …

      And the old stand-by:

      It’s for the children… [you know what to insert here] …

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        The whole notion that one can reason/fear away addiction, or use, is ludicrous. Better to make Narcan OTC than another “your kid will be deformed” campaign.

    2. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      It’s a DEA thing:

      https://www.dea.gov/onepill

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Oh, so he’s not even original. Just allowing people to think he’s creative.

  10. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    The headline: “Public School Enrollments Still Declining”

    The reality: “Virginia K-12 public school enrollment will decline…”

    Can you spot the difference?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      The big picture thing is what is the purpose and concept of public education vice the problems and challenges it has to deal with and whether one sees them as issues to address or reasons to undermine and oppose the concept of public education itself.

      Over and over, we have narratives that in essence provide reasons why public education “does not work” and “thinking” that non-public education is “better”, financed by taxpayers of course but even less accountable to them than public education.

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