Public-Private May Get Overhaul


S

ince 1995, Virginia has been a leader in public-private funding schemes for transportation projects. The state has been able to fund several highway and bridge projects in the Richmond area and Northern Virginia by turning to private financing and operators and avoiding burdening taxpayers who don’t want to pay more taxes or be burdened with extra debt.

To be sure, the public-private schemes have their critics who say that turning public obligations over to the private sector doesn’t always ensure efficient operation despite what the free market mavens would have you believe. And, the schemes often build roads where none are needed and the result is either more suburban sprawl or nothing at all but debt.
So, it is interesting that the McDonnell Administration has come out with a consultant’s report that examines the states public-private process. The report was done for about $100,000 by KPMG Corporate Finance.
The upshot is that Virginia needs to set up a separate agency to better coordinate its public private affairs. More important, it uses the process only for highways when it could try a more “multi-modal” approach that would involve rail, light rail and combinations thereof with highways.
KMPG recommends that the state set up a program with fewer steps to decide a PPTA (public private) project, standardize documents used, develop targets and make sure there’s competition on price when soliciting bids. This could be done by setting up a stand-alone PPTA program office as governments in Ireland, Ontario, Texas and Georgia have done.
Another goal should be to make PPTA less highway-specific, which is a goal of state Transportation Secretary Sean Connaughton. Right now the two biggest PPTA projects include the Pocahontas Parkway near Richmond and the Interstate 495 hot-lane projects near Washington. Connaughton’s newer projects would be to use PPTA a limited access superhighway linking Petersburg and Hampton Roads along U.S. 460 and replacing the Midtown Tunnel in Portsmouth.
Environmentalists, such as Trip Pollard of the Southern Environmental Law Center, say that increasing the multi-modal focus” of PPTA is “a good recommendation.” Even so, Pollard is critical of the secrecy with which the state cloaks itself when talking PPTA with private firms, the amount taxpayers have to pay versus the relatively small exposure of private equity holders and the failure to consider alternatives or be completely straight with taxpayers about overall costs.
A classic example is the Pocahontas Parkway that connects Interstates 95 and 295 and 64 southeast of Richmond. There are big questions why the road is necessary. It cuts about 20 minutes from the time it takes people in Petersburg or south of Richmond to get to the airport, but that’s about it. Apparently, planners hoped for a big explosion of eastward sprawl from Richmond similar to the ugly sprawl one sees around Short Pump in Henrico County and Hull Street Road in southwestern Chesterfield.
Not only is promoting sprawl with a spanking new highway a bad idea, but officials have to scramble when ridership doesn’t go according to script. That’s what happened with Pocahontas. Far fewer people used the road than expected, revenue from tolls was down, the state almost lost its Triple A credit rating and a new PPTA scheme had to be worked out chop-chop.
So, the KPMG study may have some good ideas, but they can’t correct bad planning or the goofy and lingering idea that Virginians can always get something for nothing with PPTA.
Peter Galuszka


Share this article



ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)



ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)


Comments

43 responses to “Public-Private May Get Overhaul”

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Peter – this is one of the most important posts you've made. Thank you!

    The PPTA is and will remain a very important statute. It has resulted in some beneficial projects (Route 28 in Fairfax & Loudoun Counties); some big, but results yet unknown (HOT Lanes on the Beltway) projects; and the biggest contractual fiasco in PPTA history (the no-bid, multi-billion contract for the elevated "John Milliken" rail line through Tysons Corner). As the the later, the private parties also have not invested any of their own money as contemplated by the Act.

    I agree with Trip Pollard (and presumably,Peter) that the PPTA needs a lot more openness and public disclosure. Dulles Transit Partners have the right to destroy many Dulles Rail documents. That is just wrong.

    Sprawl could also be promoted by mass transit. Extending Metrorail to Loudoun County will encourage development further west than if there were no rail. Not arguing this is good or bad, just pointing out that land near the Loudoun stations will be cheaper than land near the Fairfax and Arlington County stations.

    TMT

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The PPPs are going to cherry pick the best routes, at the most favorable terms to themselves.

    Business as usual, with a different petticoat.

    RH

  3. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I concur with Peter's post and TMT.

    The PPTA has some great potential to move us from the current slush fund transportation process to one in which there has to be an element of need in order for a private company to become interested in building infrastructure.

    The problem is that we've moving from a relatively open process like NEPA where VDOT and company have been known to attempt to cook the books on cost/benefit to a more closed process where such information is said to be proprietary and thus the claim is that if the company has find a way to make it work – that such info is private and not subject to public scrutiny.

    So then we end up with really hair-brained idea floated this past GA that the developers of a new road ought to be able to get the increase taxes from the associated new deveopment development… in the mode of a CDA or Service Area TIF district.

    So you'd take undeveloped land … make it developable with a new exit – the company that builds the new road and exit gets the taxes – and the locality is expected to provide things like police and fire service for the original taxes.

    I'm with Tripp Pollard on this.

    I like the potential of having more private involvement in the development of infrastructure but I see some major red flags also.

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Ray, I think that there is a difference (potentially) with the PPTA and the historic system. With the exception of the no-bid, no-skin in the game Dulles Rail Phase I contract, the private party must put its own money into the project and, thus, at risk.

    The old system permitted road builders and real estate developers to lobby the CTB to put taxpayer money into the projects and, thus, at risk. Witness Til Hazel's latest scheme "203o" that seeks more developer control over tax money to facilitate his and other developers' business plans.

    Til wants two more Beltways. If they are a good idea, why doesn't he (and other investors) propose to build them under the PPTA? They could. But they won't. That tells me the likely return on investment is likely too low to warrant the investment risk. If a project cannot attract private money, why should taxpayer money be invested?

    TMT

  5. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    two more beltways = PPTA = tolls

    = user pays = the right way

    the other way to do this is propose it as a referenda for NoVA and let the taxpayers of NoVa decide if it would be worth the increased taxes required to build it.

    wrong way = expecting the taxpayers across Va to fund a bogus need study with a law-ball estimate of costs such that once the project is started and runs out of money, the taxpayers have no choice but to pour more money into it.

    what we're faced with now in Virginia is a lack of taxpayer support of the current VDOT method of determining "need" so they opt out because as far as I know, out of thousands of projects, I have NEVER seen VDOT come back with a study that said the road was not needed.

    But PPTA know the difference for sure because "true need" = investors get their money back + a profit.

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The Route 28 Tax District is not a “public / private project” it is a “special tax district” project, so is Prince William Parkway, etc.

    The Route 28 Tax District process is flawed in the same way that PPTA projects are flawed.

    No sunshine.

    We wish TMT would use his oft cited political connections to get a full accounting of how much money has been spent on Route 28 interchanges and where it came from.

    The critical issue is how much more land can be developed under the tax district agreement with no additional funds from the land owners.

    What Mr. Bacon likes to call the Bottom Line is that:

    There is already vastly too much land devoted to Urban land uses.

    A recent report suggests energy consumption could be cut to 1 / 10 the current per capita consumption if citizens in the US used 1 / 5 of the land for Urban uses.

    According to a growing number, the focus for the future must be ‘Degrowth’ and ‘Shrink to Prosper.’

    As far as I know, Prof. Risse has not gone there yet but perhaps he should.

    Observer

  7. Til wants two more Beltways. If they are a good idea, why doesn't he (and other investors) propose to build them under the PPTA? They could.

    horse manure.

    If Til Hazel wanted to build the two beltways as a private driveway for his own enterprises TMT would still be fighting tooth and nail against it.

    So would Observer/EMR

  8. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Observer – there are quite a few CDAs and STDs throughout the commonwealth now.

    We have at least 4 in the Fredericksburg Area.

    In each case, a supplementary tax is accessed for any improved property within the boundaries of that district – and to my understanding such taxes go to pay off the bonds that were floated to pay for the infrastructure – and the increased taxes would go away when the bonds are retired.

    I'm trying to understand how these arrangements affect the taxpayer in such a way that more disclosure is needed.

    Also.. I don't know if I have ever heard of putting MORE infrastructure within an existing tax district such that even more bonds floated and additional supplementary taxes levied.

    In fact, if not mistaken, it takes 51% of the property owners to approve new infrastructure and supplementary taxes.

    Usually/normally, this only works well when developers own the property and lease it – as opposed to a lot of private owners of the property – because in those cases, it's much more difficult to get 51% approval.

  9. A recent report suggests energy consumption could be cut to 1 / 10 the current per capita consumption if citizens in the US used 1 / 5 of the land for Urban uses.

    You have a citation for that report?

  10. the American Institute of Architects produced a study that called for Detroit to shrink back to its urban core and a selection of urban villages, surrounded by greenbelts and banked land. Here’s a picture of their concept:

    (picture at http://www.newgeography.com/content/001171-detroit-urban-laboratory-and-new-american-frontier)

    It seems likely that this will get some form of traction from officialdom, as this article suggests, though implementation is likely to be difficult.

    ================================
    This picture is a fair representation of what I envision as "More Places", and it is similar to the plan going forward in Beijing.

    RH

  11. So what did $1,900 buy? The run-down bungalow had already been stripped of its appliances and wiring by the city’s voracious scrappers. But for Mitch that only added to its appeal, because he now had the opportunity to renovate it with solar heating, solar electricity and low-cost, high-efficiency appliances.

    Buying that first house had a snowball effect. Almost immediately, Mitch and Gina bought two adjacent lots for even less and, with the help of friends and local youngsters, dug in a garden. Then they bought the house next door for $500, reselling it to a pair of local artists for a $50 profit. When they heard about the $100 place down the street, they called their friends Jon and Sarah.

    ================================

    There you go, EMR.

    No matter how bad things get, people will still flip a home for profit.

  12. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " …tracts of formerly urbanized land returning to nature."

    ha ha ha

    vacant land in urban areas becomes ad hoc dumps unless fences are erected – and maintained.

    call me a skeptic.

    open/vacant land is NOT "park land"

    In fact, if you look at most urban "park land" – it is served by a well developed infrastructure AND maintenance personnel AND ample security and if not – it becomes a dump and subject to gatherings of folks who can become a threat to others…

    Other "great" cities of the world have such unmaintained open land converted to ad hoc shacks and tent city slums full of scavenging feral animals and such.

    I'm leave a tiny window open to those who might try to convince me otherwise.

    I may well be ignorant and need some enlightenment on this.

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Did you notice the tracts of open land with spontaneous paths across them?

    All diagonal.

    So much for the "natural" grid street system.

    RH

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Ray, I wouldn't object to Til Hazel or any other real estate developer or road builder constructing a second or even a third Beltway as a toll road or even as a means to enhance his other investments. They will never be built because those industries have functioned with the public footing the bill for infrastructure. That's what the 2030 group is all about – another attempt to shake down taxpayers for private gain.

    TMT

  15. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    If Til Hazel said he was going to get into the toll road business along with other developers.. what would we think?

    The thing I notice about toll roads nowdays is that there is a BIG difference between the projected numbers that the govt agency like VDOT predicts and the numbers that potential investors use – which is much more conservative and careful cause they got their own skin in the game….

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    which is much more conservative and careful cause they got their own skin in the game….

    with government guarantees.

    BAH. This is a bad idea and it will come back to haunt us.

  17. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "We wish TMT would use his oft cited political connections to get a full accounting of how much money has been spent on Route 28 interchanges and where it came from."

    First, I stand corrected, Route 28 was NOT a PPTA, but is a special tax district. But the financial results still are public information as far as I know. Fairfax County uses Fund 700 to account for the tax revenues. The County tracks receipts and expenditures (Loudoun must likely do so as well). Pick the phone; send an email, and ask how much has been raised and how much has been spent? If more than 25% public money has been spent, report it to the county auditor. I am not aware that either Fairfax County or Loudoun County is cooking the books. Are you?

    I believe that many landowners have not developed to their full authorization, but the taxes will continue until the road projects are completed and sufficient funds are received to pay all of the bonds. I don't believe that the latter is expected to occur soon.

    The relative densities are quite low compared to Tysons Corner or even Reston Towne Center. Most FARs are less than 1.0. I don't know how much cumulative floor space can be constructed.

    I know quite a few people who would rather see more development along Route 28 and other more western locations than in Tysons, McLean and Vienna. Most of those people would rather see the traffic go elsewhere. I know other people who would rather push the traffic to Tysons. Personally, I think development spread around the County is better than concentrating it only a few locations. People living in or around such locations would suffer disproportionately from the concentration of growth. This is not to argue for unlimited sprawl. It's just a matter of sharing the pain.

    TMT

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Very few Virgina developers would build roads or other infrastructure under the PPTA. Their cost models assume taxpayers exist to fund the infrastructure. The Tysons landowners, for example, which stand a realistic possibility of being able to construct buildings at the four stations with FARs as high as 10.0, are fighting tooth and nail against paying for virtually everything. They are used to being able to obtain virtually everything on someone else's back. The Dulles Toll Road users face most of the costs for Dulles Rail.

    TMT

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "We wish TMT would use his oft cited political connections to get a full accounting of how much money has been spent on Route 28 interchanges and where it came from."

    TMT said:

    “First, I stand corrected, Route 28 was NOT a PPTA, but is a special tax district.”

    “OK!!”

    “But the financial results still are public information as far as I know.”

    But have you looked for or at the ‘public information”?

    The tax district plan initiated in the early 80s and formalized in December 1987. The District was in serious trouble in the early 90s (see WaPo stories by John Ward Anderson et. al.) and again in the late 90s when the commercial development did not keep up with projected tax base growth leading to a number of questionable residential ReZoning in the Noise Zones.

    The data that is now public is the information complied when commercial development was booming in the mid-00s and the bonds were refinanced. The cash flow will be in trouble again if the predicted deflation of commercial property takes place.

    “Fairfax County uses Fund 700 to account for the tax revenues. The County tracks receipts and expenditures (Loudoun must likely do so as well).”

    Have you looked at the public information on Fund 700? It is impossible to tell how much was paid by whom.

    “Pick the phone; send an email, and ask how much has been raised and how much has been spent? If more than 25% public money has been spent, report it to the county auditor. I am not aware that either Fairfax County or Loudoun County is cooking the books. Are you?”

    I would suspect that there is a legislative act by the District and the two counties to cover every activity – The rezonings of commercial land to residential uses inside the noise zone when there was an office glut to increase the tax district cash flow, transfers from the Secondary Road Fund, etc. The bonds are “to be paid by tax district proceeds” BUT they are guaranteed by the CBT highway funds.

    “I believe that many landowners have not developed to their full authorization, but the taxes will continue until the road projects are completed and sufficient funds are received to pay all of the bonds. I don't believe that the latter is expected to occur soon.”

    That statement is true, BUT the funds were always intended to only pay for a small fraction of the improvements needed to serve the land uses that were zoned.

    Observer

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Part 2

    “The relative densities are quite low compared to Tysons Corner or even Reston Towne Center. Most FARs are less than 1.0. I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH CUMULATIVE FLOOR SPACE CAN BE CONSTRUCTED.”

    That is just the point!!

    Some quick calculations: There are 5.6 + / – miles of Route 28 in Loudoun and 5,895 acres in tax district. There are 8.0 miles + / – of Route 28 in Fairfax County but the part of it is along Dulles Airport so the road is ‘single-loaded.’ Lets say there are 10,000 acres in the district. At FAR 1.0 that is 435 Million Square feet.

    At the time the district was proposed Mid-Town Manhattan had about 220 Million square feet. Those who questioned the wisdom of the district said the district zoning capacity was ‘Two Mid-Town Manhattans’ and no one challenged that number.

    Tysons Corner with four METRO stations, the Beltway, Hot Lanes, Route 7, DAAR / I-66 is 1,500 acres ( 1 / 6th as large) and you are worried about 1 /10th the square footage of commercial space being too much.

    Forty percent of the tax district in Loudoun is “vacant” according to the County. Almost none of the other 60 percent is built to its zoned capacity.

    The district’s tax revenue was calculated to pay for 75 percent of widened Route 28 from two and four lanes to a six and eight lane road and adding interchanges where intersections existed.

    It is easy to see why there is no way that one six and eight lane road would carry the traffic generated by two Mid-Town Manhattans. Even if much of the traffic was carried by other roads (not paid for by the tax district) the calculations at the time were that Route 28 would have to be a minimum of 16 lanes – the New Jersey Turnpike – with multiple lane groupings and multi-level interchanges.

    The district was planned to be a disaster that once in motion would be “too big to fail” and would require the public to bail it out with a light rail line, more roads, etc.

    (I want to thank Dr. Risse for taking the time to point out some of the key problems. He noted that from a current perspective that Balance at the Village and Community scale is not possible in this area because of the Airport Noise Zones prohibit residential uses in much of the district.)

    The Route 28 Tax District was and is promoted by those who profit at the expense of the public.

    If you think Tysons is a problem it is because you understand what is going on.

    You need to look into the Route 28 Tax District as carefully as you have into the Tysons Corner “plans.”

    “I know quite a few people who would rather see more development along Route 28 and other more western locations than in Tysons, McLean and Vienna.”

    Not in My Back Yard.

    “ Most of those people would rather see the traffic go elsewhere. I know other people who would rather push the traffic to Tysons.”

    “Personally, I think development spread around the County is better than concentrating it only a few locations. People living in or around such locations would suffer disproportionately from the concentration of growth. This is not to argue for unlimited sprawl. It's just a matter of sharing the pain.”

    As long a Balance is possible at the Community Scale.

    As Prof. Risse pointed out to me, given the concentration of Jobs in the Core and especially in the Zentrum, Balance for two Mid-Town Manhattan near the Clear Edge.

    Larry said:

    “I'm trying to understand how these arrangements affect the taxpayer in such a way that more disclosure is needed.”

    Hopefully, the above will answer Larry’s question

    Observer

  21. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Observer – than you for the education.

    One question. Has the taxpayer put any money into the Rt 28 district yet?

    What would cause that to happen?

    what event would require taxpayers to get involved?

    thanks!

    listening to you – what would be the difference between the Rt 28 tax district and other tax districts?

    what makes the Rt 28 district unique, different.. more at risk than other tax districts?

    this is Central Park in Fredericksburg:

    "…. accounted for more than 25% of the City of Fredericksburg's entire tax base. Now at more than 160 stores and 50 restaurants…..

    At buildout, Central Park at Celebrate Virginia will boast more than ~2.4 million square feet of retail, restaurant, office and service businesses."

    http://www.silvercompanies.com/content/view/47/80/

    did you say over 400 million square feet for Rt 28?

  22. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Observer – I don't have all the figures from Fairfax County, but do have them for Loudoun. The Loudoun County portion of the Route 28 tax district is 5885 acres (commerical properties subject to the tax and that can obtain added density). At 43560 sq. ft./acre, the math gives us 256,350,600 square feet. With one exception, Loudoun's FAR is 0.40. That gives us 102,540,240 square feet for Loudoun County alone. It would appear that your number of 450 MSF could be correct, given the higher densities permitted in Fairfax County. That's a s**t load of development. It sounds like two Midtown Manhattans, as you say.

    TMT

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry said:

    “Observer – than[k] you for the education.”

    You are welcome. You really need to read the basics resources – Dr. Risse’s work is a place to start. It will help you understand things that are a mystery to you.

    “One question. Has the taxpayer put any money into the Rt 28 district yet?”

    Yes, VDOT was always going to pay 25 percent of the 28 Phase 1, 2 & 3 improvements from CTB road funds and VDOT was always going to guarantee the bonds from the same funds if the tax district defaulted.

    The questions are:

    How much more taxpayers put in when the tax district was not producing as projected in early 90s and late 90s / early 00s,

    Was that money paid back during the mid 90s and mid 00s booms?

    How much will the next (current) downturn cost?

    But the big question is who pays for all the improvements that will be required when the owners build their ‘by right?’

    “What would cause that to happen? What event would require [has required] taxpayers to get involved? Thanks!”

    You are welcome again.

    “Listening to you – what would be the difference between the Rt 28 tax district and other tax districts? What makes the Rt 28 district unique, different.. more at risk than other tax districts?”

    The scale of the area, the lack of a plan, the fact that the planned improvements would not come close to meeting the need to serve the zoned property.

    “this is Central Park in Fredericksburg:

    "…. accounted for more than 25% of the City of Fredericksburg's entire tax base. Now at more than 160 stores and 50 restaurants…..

    “At buildout, Central Park at Celebrate Virginia will boast more than ~2.4 million square feet of retail, restaurant, office and service businesses."

    “http://www.silvercompanies.com/content/view/47/80/

    “did you say over 400 million square feet for Rt 28?”

    Yes. That is why several of us thought TMT needed to smell the roses since he has a lot of good things to say about Tysons Corner Overshoot and holds Route 28 up as an example.

    Some think enthusiasm by non-land owners is mainly NIMBY – put it somewhere else as TMT stated.

    Observer

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    TMT:

    You need to have a grasp of how this came about:

    Feds locating Dulles in 1 acre residential zoned area in the 60s.

    No market for residential near the airport and pressure by FHA to change zoning to prevent another Idlewilde (JFK).

    Fairfax rezoning 8 or 9 thousand acres of noise zone to Office / Industrial. There was no market at the time but THINK of the unintended grant of ‘property rights’ for which no one paid a dime.

    Fairfax’s growing ‘commercial tax base’ (Tysons Corner) gave Loudoun and Prince William the idea they could do it too.

    While Fairfax was zoning 1 Mid-Town Manhattan in the 28 corridor, Loudoun was zoning 2 in eastern Loudoun (1 in Route 28 Corridor, 1 in Route 7 Corridor) and Prince William was zoning 3 (yes 3) in the 15,000 acres of West Prince William – Manassas to Gainesville.

    (Footnote: When Cellar Door (Nissan, Jiffy Lub) alerted Disney to what could happen in West Prince William they pulled the plug.)

    In the 80s no one ever expected the 400 Million to be built in the Route 28 Corridor. Most knew it was a crap shoot to get ANY development and 25 years later most have not gotten a return on even their fire sale ‘investment.’ But what was the choice? With no road capacity no one would build anything and there was all that land in speculative ownership – much of it acquired at fire sales related to the REIT and Savings and Loan crashes.

    AOL and WorldCom gave hope that the bet would pay off. AOL is only about 0.25 if memory serves (106 acres and 1.2 million feet now half occupied by AOL, the rest rented / sold).

    Can you imagine the traffic if all 13,000 acres of noise zone were covered with AOLs?

    The history is important but if one does not understand the Five Natural Laws, they are lost.

    Most developers and land speculators do not understand the power of the First Law – A = Pi R sq applied to land – especially land at R = 25. Tysons Corner is at R = 10.

    Observer

  25. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Tysons Corner is at R = 10.

    After it is built, Tysons may become R=0 and Ballston will wind up being R=10.

    RH

  26. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I'd be interested in hearing TMT's take on this.

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    but THINK of the unintended grant of ‘property rights’ for which no one paid a dime.

    yeah

    And think of the thousands of other property rights which were expired around that time, for which no one was paid a dime.

    RH

  28. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    RH noted:

    “Tysons Corner is at R = 10.”

    “After it is built, Tysons may become R=0 and Ballston will wind up being R=10.”

    The only way that would happen is if some wetback sneaked a very dirty nuclear device across the Mexican border and detonated it on Capital Hill contaminating a four mile radius and the US Capital was reestablished at Ballston. Not much chance of any of that happening.

    If Ballston was R = 0, Tysons would be R = 5, not R = 10. As Prof. Risse points out Geographic Illiteracy is a terrible thing and RH is a pitiful example.

    The bigger question is why does RH insist on posting inane comments and snide, belittling remarks like this. It adds nothing to the discussion. He sounds like a grade school bully desperately pleading for attention.

    What a waste of Internet resources.

    Actually ‘RH’ is a well dressed member of the a small Tea Party group. She likes to pretend that she is a farmer. No self-respecting hay‘farmer’ would have time or interest in spreading this type of manure.

    OK, now I am are tossing rocks but that pigeon hole has a pigeon in it.

    CJC

  29. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "And think of the thousands of other property rights which were expired around that time, for which no one was paid a dime."

    I am waiting to hear of the first property right in land related to Urban activity that was not created by government actions to establish the safety, security, monitary structure and infrastructure necessary for there to even be a property right.

    Most of the property rights one hears of being 'stolen' are actually based on unfounded speculation related to illusions of the amount of land that can sustainabilly devoted to Urban land uses.

    AZA

  30. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Observer – your story on the history of Route 28 makes sense. Heavy residential development near Dulles would have been a huge and costly disaster. So it makes sense to encourage some type of alternative development in the area – office and industrial – some hotel makes sense too. Therefore, there needs to be some road improvement. I'm on board so far with the policy too.

    While I'm not ready to endorse or even understand all of EMR's theses, I can support his concept of balance. It makes no sense to have no jobs and no shopping, entertainment, parks, etc. in some areas and force everyone to commute to a few job centers. Or as Ray often writes, we need more places.

    Bringing jobs nearer to the residential areas of western Fairfax, western Prince William and eastern Loudoun Counties makes real sense to me. Similarly, bringing some more residential usage to Tysons makes sense to me.
    Where I suspect things start going off the track in several areas. Developers will say anything to get approval to build and to have someone else pay for all the infrastructure. They are generally agnostic to a vision of growth so long as the growth occurs on their property.

    Local governments are always on the hunt for cash because they cannot control their spending. Combine the real need for real estate development to serve a growing population, developer belief flexibility and local government desire for more cash and we see local government jumping to approve damn near anything developers want. Toss in campaign contributions, and we have modern day Virginia.

    However, there needs to be matching infrastructure increases to support any growth. A school system that sees 1000 more new students needs classrooms, desks, etc. More people, be they employees or residents, need certain other infrastructure also – roads, transit, parks, fire, police and the like.

    The problem is that the incremental cash is never enough to over the incremental capital costs for the infrastructure. So it doesn’t get built, which degrades the quality of life for existing residents; it gets built at the cost of higher taxes or cuts in other services, which degrade the quality of life for existing residents; or some combination of both. Meanwhile, the developer makes money and moves on. Sort of like a drive-by shooter. It’s worse in NoVA because we export the added income tax revenues to subsidize the hell out of RoVA.

    And elected officials wonder why people hate development! And why Til Hazel thinks the world was great in the 70s and 80s.

    Giving away density is stupid. Very stupid. The added tax revenues generated by new development that are kept locally, plus extractions from developers ought to pay for the needed additions to infrastructure to accommodate the added density. If that cost recovery plan were in effect, we’d see more people accepting more real estate development in their community. Traffic would not get worse. And we’d see a lot less development in areas where the added value of such development is less than the cost of the necessary increases to public infrastructure. Also, I suspect we’d see more development occurring in the right places, i.e., places where development paid for itself. We would see a bunch of unhappy landowners who own land in the wrong locations. But that might be a small price to pay for a more rational system of real estate development and infrastructure funding.

    TMT

  31. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I'm still not totally clear on the Rt 28 special tax district.

    These districts, as far as I now, can only be created with the approval of 51% of the landowners in the proposed district.

    So how many acres of land were involved and how many landowners and what was the vote?

    Normally, when such tax districts are created there is only one owner or a consortium that constitutes a majority of landowners.

    Trying to cobble together such districts from a diverse group of landowners is not easy and often is not even attempted.

    I'm also not clear on how VDOT was authorized to use taxpayer money for a tax district. They don't do it down here in Fredericksburg and I strongly suspect they don't have that authority without GA enabling legislation.

    Finally, no disrespect intended but I do not think EMR is particularly knowledgeable about this process.

    In fact, my complain has often been – how to tie together his vision into practicalities which he has often said that he leaves to others.

    I know he is familiar with Reston and perhaps he does know the nitty-gritty details of how Reston operates – infrastructure-wise.

    But Observer did move the ball forward.. but now I want more details…

  32. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    TMT:

    You are on the right track.

    I think Prof. Risse would say that you may have crossed the divide and you can see the path ahead.

    He would also say there is only one solution in a democracy:

    A Critical Mas of citizens who see what you see and who agree to work to evolve Balanced settlement patterns.

    More Balanced places, yes. But more Balanced places that evolved from the Urban fabric that exists; taking the best of what has been built and improving it.

    I am afraid I can do not better than he has done so you will have to read The Shape of the Future.

    There are no short answer to one of humans most complex problems: functional and sustainable settlement patterns.

    Larry:

    I will bet that you have never read Prof. Risse’s bio.

    He conceived of, planned, rezoned, designed and managed the development of thousands of acres where tens of thousands of citizens now live, work and seek Services, recreation and amenity. The places he was instrumental in building are not perfect but they taught him what humans need to do to achieve a sustainable trajectory.

    Do you REALLY read before your start posting a question? I am not Dr. Risse but I told (or you should have been able to understand from what was summarized) that the 28 tax district is 13,000 acres + / – , there are thousands of land owners. Yes 51 percent of them voted for the district but that does not mean one owner, one group or one interest. For the reasons I spell out there were a lot of owners of speculative land that were all in the same boat and they used the context that TMT described to create a vehicle to try to optimize their monetary position in as short a time as possible with the public taking as much of the risk as possible. Just as TMT describes is happening in Tysons Corner now.

    If you want to understand the world and help make it a better place you need to pay more attention and not try to fit the world into your set of experiences.

    Read more, learn more, question less.

    Observer

  33. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    well observer.. I AM trying to learn more.

    I'm not quite ready to dismiss the rt 28 tax district as a bad idea just yet… due diligence if you will.

    For one thing, it has a long history way back in the 1980's long before most counties were thinking about tax districts.

    2nd, a place like Reston or any place like it would need to have something like a tax district or TIF in order to direct improvements within the boundaries and to have some control over their own destiny in terms of planning so no – I do not discount this in EMR's case but I have seen precious little from him as to what practical role this kind of self-financing plays in developing more balanced functional settlement patterns.

    If a majority of owners are willing to pay 20 cents per hundred increase in taxes for infrastructure – that's better than them expecting other taxpayers outside of that district to fund their needs, no?

    so.. no.. we're scratching the surface here guy… and I do want to know more.

    for instance, I notice that no residential property was apparently part of the original tax district.

    That's pretty important in terms of how development will proceed.

    also.. I notice that VDOT has delegated to the developers – land acquisition process… letting them handle it until or unless Emminent Domain is needed.

    Again.. this is pretty significant stuff.

    It appears to me ..you correct me if I'm wrong.. that these guys an their experience probably had something to do with the development of Virginia's PPTA legislation.

    I think PPTA has tremendous opportunity to build functional communities.. but I do acknowledge the possibility that it can be co-opted the same way other state infrastructure processes can be.

    the biggest problem as I see it is they do not follow the same transparency rules that pure govt processes have to abide by.

  34. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, I tend to agree that when ordinary citizens can limit the amount of taxes they spend to enable any kind of real estate development they are, at least, incrementally better off.

    Observer, I fall off EMR's wagon on the issue of living and working in the same close area. It might have worked years ago, but with both spouses/domestic partners generally working and with the general lack of job security, the odds that a family can live and work in close proximity to each other for more than a short period of time are slim to none, IMO. I've never heard a good answer to this question.

    TMT

  35. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “TMT the answer is simple:

    Fairly allocate the location variable costs and then you and your Household can live where so ever they want.

    Here is why:

    If you are fortunate enough to exist near the top of the Ziggurat, you can live in a place like Groveton with not a whit of guilt because you are paying the full cost of your decisions.

    If you are fortunate enough to exist near the top of the Ziggurat and:

    1) Your Agency, Enterprise or Institution relies on the efforts of some who exist anywhere below the top of the Ziggurat, or

    2) You care how much goods and Services cost or how much energy and other resources are consumed in your Region;

    You will be wise to support Jobs with Housing in close, convenient proximity for all who hold those Jobs as the FIRST step toward a Balance of Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity.

    That is true if you are an officer in a software company, a lawyer, the regional VP for Wal*Mart or are just “clipping coupons.”

    You will not have a whit of guilt in this case either because:

    For 60 years the market has shown and research documents beyond a shadow of a doubt that those who occupy 75 percent of the Households greatly prefer these locations.

    The other 25 percent of Households (those with small children in the Household) have a lower percentage who favor these settlement patterns. That is because they have not yet realized that, as Prof. Risse has noted:

    “When the oldest child gets big enough to kick a soccer ball into the flower bed it is time to move to a Cluster with at least 30 persons per acre. At these densities (10 persons per acre at the Community scale) children can walk to a play field as well as to soccer practice, piano lessons, get a quart of milk and to elementary, middle and high school. That is all possible in any Planned New Community and many Planned New Villages.”

    This level of Mobility and Access is also possible in revived existing settlement patterns.

    There are those who are speculating with their primary residence and those who hope to pocket an unearned windfall from land speculation and / or from building dwellings that are sold for prices that do not reflect their total cost that will try to obfuscate these fact but they ARE facts.

    They are facts about:

    Market preference and

    The most convenient places to raise children.

    As to the two partners working is different places there are several responses:

    First, that is what shared-vehicle systems are designed to address. An efficient system of shared vehicles take care of the few high value trips that are needed to be taken outside the station-area.

    Second if costs are fairly allocated it may not seem so attractive to jump to a better paying job if the total cost turns out to make that less than an intelligent move.

    The decision to stay put helps Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood and Village stability.

    It also make it more likely that citizens will treat one another with more respect. That is because the option of telling a Clustermate to shove it when they comment on where your dog relives himself is far less rational.

    Finally, for those who just have to jump from Job to Job or partner to partner, Richard Florida makes a good argument for renting in his new book “The Great Reset.”

    Hope that helps:

    Observer

  36. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous


    Observer, I fall off EMR's wagon on the issue of living and working in the same close area.

    Today, whileI was driving 50 miles, I listened to an NPR special on living where you work.

    The first story was about an man living in and Working in New York.

    H lived ina decaying neighborhood, and when a murder occured in his apartment buildiong he moeved out of the city. He bought a four bedroom home and his mortgage was only $1400 a month.

    But the home was in the Catskills, his commute was 2 hours and cost $1350 a month.

    "I didn't do the math, I didn't think, I just reacted to the murder." Before long, he was in trouble on his mortgage. He eventually took work in the Catskills, at a lower salary, but still wound up ahead.

    =================================

    The second story was about the walk index, which I mentioned here previously. It is available on Zillow.

    According to the story, each point on the walk index (in some areas) is worth an additional $3000 on the home price.

    They profiled a condo building in central San Francisco with a walk index of 99, and outlined all the attractions within waling distance.

    They interviewed a yound woman who was considering a purchase. She does not own a car and such a location is a priority for her.

    The Condos in the building were listed for $450,000. She liked the location but thought the condos were small: she wanted a second room to use for music practice.

    Listening to the "attractions" that were within walking distance, I knew i would go out of my mind living in sucha "vibrant" place.

    Having a dozen corner bistros and coffe shops wouldn't do a thing for me.

    RH

  37. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    families like soccer fields and safe schools and that's why places like Stafford County at the 30-40 mile commute band has one of the highest ratios of kids to total population in Virginia – 20+%.

    Stafford is also a heavy-duty "slug" place with so many people slugging and riding van and buses that virtually all of their commuter lots are overfilled.

    So the cost of a commute from a place like Stafford is not at all like a 2 hr commute from the Catskills but, in fact, can be cheaper than someone who lives in Reston but took a new job in Arlington – when you count car parking or METRO…

    keep in mind also – that the Federal Government will give most eligible workers in Stafford up to $200 a month to pay for their commutes.

    so in or area – commuting is "affordable" and … actually encouraged by govt policies.

    paying folks $200 a month to commute though is clearly one of those location variable subsidies that are talked about here and the money comes from the Federal Agencies who pay it – yet another – untaxed compensation…..

  38. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Would tolls on major commuting routes fairly recover the costs in a cost-effective manner? EMR, what do you think?

    TMT

  39. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    EMR is apparently out of range and so I have no way to find out for sure but I suspect he would agree with Mr. Bacon:

    Raising the gas tax is the easiest first step.

    Tolls are hard to sort fish from fowl. Because of the design of the Interstates it is hard to sort ‘commuters’ from InterRegional traffic.

    The bigger issue, which EMR has made clear often is that one simple tax or fee on this or that is only a band aid.

    A Critical Mass of citizens must understand the need for Fundamental Transformations and support a comprehensive program.

    Anything else will doom contemporary, technology-based civilization.

    Sort of like a leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. The longer nothing is done, the worse it will get until there comes a point of no return.

    Observer

  40. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "A Critical Mass of citizens must understand the need for Fundamental Transformations and support a comprehensive program."

    This is tilting at windmills. Complex solutions that people don't understand and understand to be fair will not be adopted.

    I can see some logic in increasing the gas tax, as people who drive 40 miles each way to work would pay more. But an increased gas tax would also enable the developers and road builders to lobby for more roads far from the clear edge.

    What four understandable and fair steps, besides raising the gas tax, would make incremental progress to EMR's goal?

    TMT

  41. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Someday, technology will probably help fulfill this promise. [Full and fair pricing] Skymeter, a Toronto-based company, has developed a GPS-based metering system that can track and bill cars in even the densest urban areas. With such a system, Komanoff says, he could adjust congestion prices on a block-by-block basis. Cities could do away with parking meters and simply track how long cars sat at a curb. Insurance premiums could reflect the habits of individual drivers instead of relying on crude proxies like age. Drivers could be rewarded for taking the roads less traveled—not having to pay, and sometimes even getting paid, if they chose to commute on less congested routes on particularly busy days. “It’s going to happen,” Komanoff says. “Cities will charge per mile or per minute according to your exact location and the type of vehicle you’re driving.”

    From Feakanomics.

    Komanoff figures that a congestion charge of $16 per vehicle would be enught to pay for public transit.

    RH

  42. "The bill would hand sweeping new powers to MDOT to allow it to impose fees directly on taxpayers with no other checks and balances, via a new mechanism known as a public-private partnership, or P3.

    In general, P3s work like this: The government leases a public asset, like a road, to a private company. The state gets a large upfront payment, and the private company gets to charge tolls to try to recoup that money and make a profit.

    These projects have had mixed results and mixed acceptance. Once very popular in Texas, public backlash has resulted in a halt to P3 use. A recent bankruptcy of a California P3 cost the federal government $170 million."

    Detroit Free Press

  43. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    P3s are also driven by the fact that localities and even the State of Virginia does not have sufficient credit worthiness to finance new projects unless they do it with P3.

    The HOT lane project in the Washington Area will add one lane to the existing HOV Lanes and the cost is over a billion dollars with no public financing readily available.

    The McDonnell administration just borrowed about 500 million which puts Virginia near the limits of it borrowing ability.

    One might ask why the State can't do what the PPP can do, i.e. borrow money and charges tolls to pay back the money.

    In theory they could – and, in fact have already tried it with the Pocahontas Parkway (and could have done it with the HOT lanes) except VDOT, to date, has not demonstrated the necessary competence to develop realistic toll revenue models – as evidence with their failure with the Pocahontas Parkway where they estimated about twice as many willing toll payers and at the end, only avoided default on the bonds when Fluor/Transurban bailed them out.

    PPP is predicated in part on the idea that private industry has a better handle on financing toll facilities over the longer term than the state does.

Leave a Reply