Bacon's Rebellion

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Propaganda Poll on Dulles Rail

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Ninety-three percent of Northern Virginia residents “favor” the extension of Metro heavy rail to Tysons Corner and into Loudoun County, according to a poll commissioned by the Dulles Corridor Rail Association and conducted by iQ Research & Consulting.

Overwhelming majorities of respondants (80 percent or more) answered in the affirmative when asked if the project would “provide another way to get to and from Dulles Airport,” “provide more choice in ways to get to and around the area,” and “help reduce fuel consumption/energy use.” (Interestingly, only 62 percent agreed, when prompted that the project would “reduce growth in traffic congestion.”) Few surprises here.

The poll got the response it was designed to get. Heck, if you asked me an open-ended question on whether I “favor” Rail to Dulles, shorn of any context regarding how much it costs, who will pay for it, or what the alternative uses of the money are, I would respond yes. I think it’s a great idea — in the abstract.

In other words, the poll was not designed to plumb the complexities and nuances of public opinion, but to create a impression, possibly misleading, that overwhelming public support for the project exists. It was what I call a propaganda poll.

Here are questions that might have elicited quite a different response:

  • The latest cost estimate for extending Metro heavy rail through Tysons Corner and Dulles Airport is $5 billion. Do still you “favor” the project?
  • Do you think $5 billion would alleviate more traffic congestion in Northern Virginia if it were spent in other ways, such as Bus Rapid Transit, traffic light synchronization or spot improvements to local roadway bottlenecks?
  • More than half the cost of the Rail-to-Dulles project would be paid by users of the Dulles Toll Road, even though they were promised the tolls would be lifted by now. Is it fair that people not using the Metro are forced to pay for it?
  • The primary beneficiaries of Rail-to-Dulles are wealthy property owners whose land adjoins planned Metro stations, but they’re contributing only a small fraction of the construction costs. Do you think they should pay a bigger share?

Garbage in, garbage out.

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12 responses to “Propaganda Poll on Dulles Rail”

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Heck, if you asked me an open-ended question on whether I “favor” Rail to Dulles, shorn of any context regarding how much it costs, who will pay for it, or what the alternative uses of the money are, I would respond yes.”

    Heck, if you asked me an open-ended question on whether I “favor” conservation, shorn of any context regarding how much it costs, who will pay for it, or what the alternative uses of the money are, I would respond yes.

    Polls are not designed to plumb the complexities and nuances of public opinion, but to create a impression, possibly misleading, that overwhelming public support for the project exists.

    That’s why I suggest we put the polls directly on the back of our tax forms, where we can promote whatever trade-offs or alternate uses we desire. And where the source of the money is obvious.

    RH

  2. Danny L. Newton Avatar
    Danny L. Newton

    The cost of 2.5 passenger rail cars can buy a mile lane mile of road in urban areas. A lane mile of road can take between 1200 to 2200 people in single occupancy autos per hour depending upon the speed of the autos. The average train car can carry 160 people. In 2004 the average speed of light rail was 23 mph. Van pools were averaging 31 mph.

    There is no train that is more efficient than a lane mile of road let alone four lane miles of road.

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “There is no train that is more efficient than a lane mile of road let alone four lane miles of road.”

    Not true, they are pretty similar in capital costs and throughput.

    “The cost of 2.5 passenger rail cars can buy a mile lane mile of road in urban areas”

    A rail car costs in the neighborhood of $2M-$5M depending on size. For reference the ICC costs about $27M a lane mile ($3B/18miles/6lanes) at that’s not in a very urban area. In downtown Boston the big dig came in around a billion a lane mile.

    “The average train car can carry 160 people.”

    Most metro trains are 6-8 cars and run every 3-5 minutes during rush hour. A metro car can fit about 100 pretty comfortable so with 6 car trains every 5 minutes you are looking at 7200 an hour which is close to equivalent to a 6 or 8 lane highway. If you go to 8 car trains more frequently you can obviously fit more, likewise you put HOV lanes on a highway you can increase throughput there.

    Cost wise if you compare Dulles Rail to the ICC they are pretty close considering Dulles Rail is being routed through Tysons which drives up the cost.

    Intangibles:
    If you compared going through an urbanized area trains make more sense as they have a smaller footprint. In lower density areas highways make more sense as it’s hard to scale down rail projects. Urban rail lines tend to drive up local real estate while urban highways blight areas around them and drive down RE.

    ZS

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Rail and road don’t do the same job. There is no point in comparing them. What you need is the best combination that does the best job for the most people.

    For 92% of people today, that means cars. Consider that Metro is the areas largest provider of parking, and you realize that the fact a metro car can carry 100 people means nothing by itself: it isn’t doing the whole job.

    I’d argue about the fairly comfortably, too.

    The no mattter how often trains arrive, the fact remains that Metro is pretty slow. And it isn’t much cheaper than autos, since a metro passenger mile costs $0.85.

    We need to stop the rail vs road crap and figure out what needs to be done. We are wasting $900 a year in transit now, we might as well buy something with the money.

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I think both Danny and ZS are right. There is no train that is necessarily more efficient although the potential is there. As ZS points out, they are pretty comparable, and that means we should stop overselling transit as the answer to our problems.

    It is part of an answer.

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    These days, one thing the train has in its favor is that it can run on coal.

  7. Richard Layman Avatar
    Richard Layman

    Re: Do you think $5 billion would alleviate more traffic congestion in Northern Virginia if it were spent in other ways, such as Bus Rapid Transit, traffic light synchronization or spot improvements to local roadway bottlenecks?

    How about adding a rail transit (light rail and streetcar) plan for Fairfax County and points beyond.

    Fairfax needs an Arlington County quality transportation plan. (Hell, every county and city does. DC doesn’t have a transportation plan as good as Arlington’s….)

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Do you think $5 billion would alleviate more traffic congestion in Northern Virginia if it were spent in other ways, such as Bus Rapid Transit, traffic light synchronization or spot improvements to local roadway bottlenecks?”

    No. I don’t think there is anyplace in the world that can domstrate they have lessened traffic congestion this way. What you get is more capacity and additional rush hour capacity, but the auto congestion stays the same because it is doing a different job.

    You can say that congestion would be worse without the trains, but that assumes you had the same number of passengers, which you would not.

    Absent the train they would give up and go someplavce else. The train buys you extra capacity that the auto system can’t provide, but it isn’t the same kind of capacity.

    Trains are good for what they do, but reducing auto congestion isn’t one of them. Considering the parking required and operated by metro it’s hard to see that it reduced auto use so much as moved it.

    RH

  9. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Re: Do you think $5 billion would alleviate more traffic congestion in Northern Virginia if it were spent in other ways, such as Bus Rapid Transit, traffic light synchronization or spot improvements to local roadway bottlenecks?”

    I agree that these won’t reduce congestion, just add capacity. Currently you have 3-5 hrs of rush hour on each end so adding capacity at best would merely shorten the rush hour a few minutes. Now that doesn’t mean we don’t need increased capacity in corridors, but pretending adding capacity will relieve congestion is a pipe dream. The question is where do you want growth and where does it make the most sense.

    How about adding a rail transit (light rail and streetcar) plan for Fairfax County and points beyond.

    I’m not sure if these would make much sense in Fairfax and beyond just due to the size and distance between points. Light rail and streetcars are really a capacity upgrade over buses and would be better served in growing areas that have high bus usage such as Columbia Pike, RT1, and maybe Lee Hwy in VA or H St NE, 16th st, Georgia Ave, and maybe M st in Georgetown. Fairfax and outwards would do better to look at a comprehensive commuter bus/rail network that can serve major corridors to get their citizens to commercial districts at predictable intervals. For local trips within the respective county, private vehicles make more sense.

    ZS

  10. Danny L. Newton Avatar
    Danny L. Newton

    First off, I would like to correct an error on my last post Commuter trains are averaging 32 miles per hour, not 23 miles per hour.
    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics contains a lot of data on trains that would help expose why I still believe that there is no train equal to a single lane of highway as far as passenger throughput.
    According to those BTS statistics, light rail logged 67 million vehicle miles and 1576 passenger miles in the year 2004. The average trip was 5 miles. That means that light rail is conveying only 23.5 passengers per mile traveled. If you took 5280 feet and divided it by 23.5, the average distance between passengers would be 244.68 feet. A stream of automobiles with federally mandated braking deceleration of 21 feet per second per second can be safely operated at 60 miles per hour within that same distance. The average light rail train passenger would be traveling the same distance at 20 miles per hour. In an hour, the average light rail would log 470 passenger miles. The SOV would log 1294 passenger miles.
    Heavy rail is averaging 22.35 passegers per mile at 16 miles per hour average speed. Commuter rail is averaging 32.9 passengers per mile at 32 miles per hour. The commuter rail rate is such that the average distance between passengers is 160.48 feet. A single passenger auto, SOV, going 45 miles per hour can operate safely within that distance. In an hour, the SOV would accumulate 1480 passenger miles while the commuter rail would accumulate 1053 passenger miles.
    The theoretical train that can carry 7200 passengers per hour needs a car or bus systen to begin and end the run. Not only does it need cars to start and end the trip, it needs the 2.82 cents per gallon of federal gas tax taken from cars and trucks to keep it alive.
    According to the BTS, commuter rail passenger income averages 16.6 cents per passenger mile. To pay off a $3 million dollar passenger coach that had 100 people in it every day, nearly 4 times the average, would have to survive 18,072,289 passenger miles or 180,723 vehicle miles to pay off the capital cost of the car. The average commuter train trip is 24 miles. That works out to 20.6 years just to pay off the rolling stock. The operating expenses and capital expenses for the track would not be touched. And, this does not consider the time value of money so the 16.6 cents would have to be inflation adjusted over time.
    I don’t accept The Big Dig as a good example of transportation engineering. Most trains and highways don’t have to go under water or in tunnels. The Big Dig was mostly an urban renewal project done with transportation funds, not a transportation project. I don’t see any huge economic development surge coming out of the post Big Dig era either.

  11. Richard Layman Avatar
    Richard Layman

    in dc, there is no question that heavy rail has reduced congestion, particularly in the 15 square mile area bounded by the Van Ness, Brookland, GWU, and Stadium stations. With 29 stations there are almost 2 stations per mile.

    Sure there is congestion in that area, but imagine how much with 50,000 more cars…

    I guess my question, somewhat rhetorical, misses the mark, because Fairfax doesn’t have the urban design that DC does, so that creating a light rail system there–or its own rail-based transportation system–probably wouldn’t reduce congestion as others have pointed out. It might do other things, but it’s very difficult to get people to willingly agree to tear up their houses and rebuild vast swathes as more “urban and transit friendly” places.

    P.S. Can you really build a lane mile of road in an urban area for $10 million… I don’t think so.

    P.P.S. a lane mile of DC based heavy rail can move between 21,000 and 26,000 people per hour… So moving 2,000 vehicles isn’t a very smart way to expand infrastructure. Frankly it would be better to price parking or do other stuff to reduce the 15-25% of discretionary trips. That would reduce demand obviating the need for more road.

  12. SAS Avatar
    SAS

    Possibly a lane mile of Metro heavy rail can move that many people at full capacity, which means through its most crowded segment. So, that means the Red Line, being the only completely independent line. For the proposed “silver” line, capacity (peak) would be less than half of that as proposed – not only would it share the already at capacity Orange line from West Falls Church, but also the Potomac tunnel with the Blue line. So, being optimistic, the silver line could handle 10,000 people per hour. That’s through traffic – not origin and destination.

    Let’s look at tysons, where approximately 115,000 people work (presumably 75% of whom work standard hours). Currently approved projects by Fairfax County will allow enough space for another 35,000 people to be added to Tysons. We have already exceeded the Metro’s capacity if each person were to use Tysons as their origin or destination point. And if the silver line is approved? I’ve heard numbers from another 50,000 people up to over 100,000 more people in Tysons.

    Oh, but it is so easy to get around Tysons now! One does not need to be a math major to see that this proposal is a huge loser and will only ultimately cost the state of Virginia insane amounts of future money.

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