EMR was very disappointed with TMT’s comment on Jim Bacon’s 30 May post “

First, let us be very clear:

Jim Bacon is absolutely right about the future direction of settlement patterns in the Core of NURs – Richmond, Tidewater, Charlotte, Atlanta, Washington- Baltimore….

At this point there can be little question about this fact.

The only question is whether a consensus can emerge soon enough to make the Fundamental Transformations that are imperative while there are still resources to achieve a sustainable trajectory.

The point TMT made on the 30th of May is the same point TMT made back on 4 April.

EMR delves into this issue to highlight a core problem with blogs.

Hopefully, it will help Jim Bacon design Bacon’s Rebellion 3.0 to be a more effective tool to achieve solutions, not just kill bytes, generate waste heat and create rock piles in formerly empty pigeonholes.

The problem is:

Uninformed commentors and commentors who refuse to inform themselves can repeatedly post comments that are unfounded. These comments contribute to citizens being unable to evolve a consensus.

The failure of citizens in a democracy to make intelligent decisions will be the difference between achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization and Collapse as defined by Jared Diamond – failure to intelligently plan ahead and failure to reconsider traditional beliefs when conditions change.

In response to TMT’s 4 April 2011 comment on the cost of infrastructure, EMR took several days to research and prepare a one page email and attach a 14 page PDF.

THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY – THE OTHER SHOE

FIRST ROUGH DRAFT

THE TRAJECTORY OF PROPERTY VALUES AND SETTLEMENT PATTERNS INSIDE THE CLEAR EDGE AROUND THE CORE OF THE NATIONAL CAPITAL SUBREGION

This first the draft of a future Perspective that addressed in detail TMT’s misconceptions concerning the future trajectory of human settlement patterns in the Core of the National Capital SubRegion and other large, formerly prosperous New Urban Regions.

It is a First Rough Draft because it will fit into SYNERGY’s work program in the future but not right now. The draft was prepared out of sequence as a service to TMT lest he make unfortunate decisions based on his misconceptions.

We also attached was a related 10 page PDF “Just the Facts: THE FACTS CITIZENS NEED TO UNDERSTAND CONCERNING SUBREGIONAL REALITY AND THE IMPACT OF SUBREGIONAL REALITY ON GREATER WARRENTON – FAUQUIER This Perspective is available on the CURRENT PERSPECTIVES page at www.emrisse.com

There are three possible reasons for TMT posting the 30 May comment:

1. TMT did not get the 18 April email and attachments.

In this case this post transforms from a critique of Blog comments to a condemnation of reliance on email as a vehicle for many types of communication. Yes, EMR is aware that 80 percent of the non-spam emails that are sent are not received, read and understood by the addressee. However, TMT had responded to emails at this address earlier. An email was use so as not to embarrass TMT.

2. TMT did not read the email. That is his prerogative but it should preclude him from further comments on the same topic. He would not file a second brief without reading the comments on his first brief.

3. TMT read the email and attachment but did not believe what it said. That is possible but not probable. In any event, some form of reply that identified what was not understood or not agreed with would have been a threshold courtesy for a regular participant in a Blog.

Just to make sure TMT understands how the 30 May comment falls short of reality, the following notes should make that clear.

TMT quoted Jim Bacon’s 30 May post: “Virginia will see more re-development and less greenfield development.”

TMT said: It cannot happen on a large scale. Tysons Corner is proving this.

Tysons is proving nothing of the sort.

In order to make Tysons from a suburban [core confusing word] …

… office park…

Tysons Corner was NEVER just a ‘office park.’ It was an Edge City as defined by Joel Garreau although it was not a ‘city’ and was not at the ‘edge.’

… into an urban center, billions of dollars in public infrastructure must be added. Neither the taxpayers nor the landowners can afford to spend this kind of money.

Wrong.

EMR pointed out strategies in many of the 131 columns at Bacon’s Rebellion 1.0 and specifically those on 4 Jan 04, 18 Oct 04, 20 Jan 05, 15 May 06, 16 Apr 07, 27 Dec 07, 28 Jan 08 and 8 Dec 08 how to design and build METRO to Tysons and have the development pay for the infrastructure. The 16 April 07 column (“All Aboard”) even has a cross section of what the Ziggurat station areas should look like to be viable additions to the Urban fabric of the SubRegion.

If there was not enough profit from the development of the station area to pay for the METRO extension then there was no need to extend METRO.

The problem is that the solution EMR and others offered did not meet the needs of the land owners who own land that is too far from the METRO platform to directly benefit in the early stages.

That means they would oppose the plans and would withhold campaign contributions and other favors from the elected and appointed governance practitioners.

This is a problem caused by dysfunctional governance structure and lack of market, not an inerrant problem of infrastructure costs as we made clear in our first draft of The Other Shoe.

People as knowledgeable as Tony Griffin, Fairfax County Executive,…

EMR has not seen Tony in years but doubts that he knows more now about the evolution of functional settlement patterns than he did then. Tony knows one thing – how to keep his job. That entails not embarrassing the supervisors for whom he works, doing what he can to keep them in office and not upsetting a large enough cohort of citizens that they will demand his ouster.

That is not Tony’s fault, it is again a problem of dysfunctional governance structure.

EMR worked with most Fairfax County Supervisors who served between 1972 and 2002. That included working closely with many among them the past two chairs long before they were supervisors. Almost without exception, they were and are good folks who have little choice but to make the decisions they did / do given the economic, social and physical context in which they exist.

The Fairfax Supervisors are in the same boat as the Supervisors in every other County in Virginia. As we noted in the third of eleven strategies presented to the Fauquier Board of Supervisors on 10 April 2011:

…………

The Fauquier Board of Supervisors could not now implement any of the following eight Strategies because citizens do not yet understand the problems; or that there are alternatives to Business-As-Usual; or the ramifications of continuing “Business-As-Usual.” For these reasons, citizens would not now support most of the needed actions by the Board or by other Agencies, Enterprises or Institutions.

Citizens want “answers” to the Mobility and Access Crisis, the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Helter-Skelter Crisis, BUT:

1. Citizens are not yet willing to consider rational answers because they have been led to believe there is a quick fix:

“Vote for me, and I will solve your problems with no pain. (If that did not happen the last time you voted for me, it was the other parties fault…”

“Buy this product and you will be carefree…”

“All the problems are someone else’s fault, and if they would just change…”

2. Citi
zens have no reliable source of information with which to make decisions:

In the voting booth, or in the marketplace

For proof see most “letters to the editor” or listen to most comments at “public hearings” on topics related to human settlement patterns.

The “Fourth Estate” first identified in 1837 is history. MainStream Media are now profit-advertising-consumption-driven Enterprise Media.

MainStream Media has no choice because they are Enterprises and live on ad revenue and entertainment, they are not rewarded for providing the information citizens really need by rather what generates revenue.

It is not MainStream Media’s fault, it is the fault of citizens for not evolving new sources of information over the past 50 years. Given all the tools now available, citizen ignorance and Geographic Illiteracy are self-inflicted wounds.

The future of democracies with market economies depends on informed citizens.

…………..

Back to TMT:

… has recently discussed the huge financial challenges to redevelop a brownfield area, most especially a successful area such as Tysons.

Tysons Corner is NOT a ‘brownfield area.’ The Atlantic Research site across the road from Jiffy Lub Live is a brownfield site.

Even if Tysons Corner was a brownfield there are 1,500 acres in Tysons Corner; 5,000 acres in Greater Tysons Corner. There are 244,000 acres in Fairfax County much of it in need of renewal as we pointed out in The Other Shoe.

What will help Tony keep his job and the supervisors keep their seats is for Fairfax County to continue to try to land as much ‘tax base’ as possible and force workers in the bottom 80 percent of the Ziggurat to live and seek Services outside Fairfax County.

That has ‘worked’ to date but that is why the settlement pattern is so dysfunctional.

In the current context Fairfax governance practitioners have no choice as noted above.

But times are changing. Those tax base employers will not move Fairfax in unless their employees have a place to live that they can afford to get to.

Two of the four stories on the front page of the Metro Section of WaPo today are:

“Fairfax works to get more people to call Tysons home; New affordable Housing Rules: Prices are high throughout area a rising fast.” [As noted below ‘throughout area’ means within five miles of Tysons One.] and

“Garage parking marks Urban shift in suburbs.”

Jim Bacon is right, times ARE changing.

[The third story is headlined “In VA jobs hope and prison remain empty” about a prison in Grayson County. See Yesterday’s post by EMR of Jobs in the Countryside.]

Back to TMT:

Greenfield development is likely much cheaper.

At one time it WAS cheaper. Of course, if costs were fairly allocated it would be much more expensive as we note in The Other Shoe.

But that is now a moot point.

What ever the cost there is NO MARKET, NO PROFIT, NO INTEREST IN WASTING MONEY BUILDING IN LOWER PER SQUARE FOOT COST BUILDINGS BECAUSE THERE ARE NO BUYERS.

Every new Mode-of-the-Market (MotM) Single Household Detached dwelling that is built in R=30 and beyond lowers the value of every existing MotM dwelling.

Everyone knows how long it will be easier or cheaper to build in the Countryside – even in Culpeper County – when citizens understand that reality.

See JUST THE FACTS linked above.

There is a PLUMMETING market for existing dysfunctional built environment beyond R = 30 and NO market for MORE dysfunctional settlement patterns.

A few minutes ago EMR’s beautiful wife brought down to our studio an item she downloaded from CNN Money:

“Home prices: ‘Double Dip’ confirmed based on Case-Shiller data.

If ones looks at the area outside R=30 (“the Piedmont) on Zillow they will see that it has never been a break from the first dip and now everything from R=20 (the Fairfax County line) is headed south along with a lot inside R = 20.

Pave the Piedmont!

Asphalt prices are going up too.

Give it up TMT.

There is no basis for the dream of Fairfax to continuing Business-As-Usual.

EMR