Bacon's Rebellion

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Prison Population Down, Crime Up in 2022. Coincidence?

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

The population of Virginia’s state and federal prisons posted a 10.5% decline between 2021 and 2022 — the largest drop of any state, according to new Department of Justice data. Oregon saw the second largest decline at 5.2%. Many states saw increases in their prison populations, as reported by WRIC news.

The total prison population for Virginia in 2022 was 27,162. The numbers do not include inmates of local jails.

The fall-off in prison population was especially marked among females — 18%. The DOJ report did not break down state-by-state prison populations by race.

With the exception of drug offenses, which declined, the crime rate per 100,000 population increased in almost all categories in 2022, according to the Virginia State Police “2022 Crime in Virginia” report.

— JAB

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48 responses to “Prison Population Down, Crime Up in 2022. Coincidence?”

  1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    It is too early to tell if this is a coincidence or not. The data is not available on the recividism of those released in 2021.

  2. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Coincidence? Yes! That’s what the word means!

  3. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Don’t know about anyone else, but I find it suspicious that they had exactly the same number of certain crimes, like blackmail, two years in a row. What are the odds?

    BTW, apparently the population dropped so the blackmail rate per 100,000 increased.

  4. Fred Costello Avatar
    Fred Costello

    Are there fewer arrests that are prosecuted?

  5. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I thought this report was notoriously inaccurate because of high variability in local police reporting.

    The premise that there is a correlation between levels of enforcement and crime is suspect IMO. I don’t think it affects the chronically violent types at all to be honest.

    Lower levels of crime, maybe, but harder to get a good job when you have a record. And putting people in prison over drugs is dumb IMO.

    1. Fred Woerhle Avatar
      Fred Woerhle

      How could enforcement not affect crime? If a criminal is in prison due to enforcement, then he can’t commit crimes. By contrast, if he is released, or never jailed to begin with, he can commit crimes, as most criminals do when they are released or not incarcerated. So just keeping inmates in prison will tend to cut crime. The Bureau of Justice Statistics says that except for elderly inmates, inmates tend to get arrested again after their release: https://libertyunyiel1.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/rearrest-rate-for-inmates-released-in-2008.jpg

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        It depends on how much enforcement and for what crimes and whether or not enforcement discourages others from committing crimes?

        So , if you want to convince me with authoritative data, you have to provide an authoritative website, not just one chart extracted and on a non-authoritative website with an agenda.

        Recidivism rate for Virginia?

      2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        Re-arrests is the least helpful mesure of recidivism. Just because someone was arrested does not mean he was guilty of a crime.

        According to the Va. Dept. of Corrections, for the latest year for which all the data is available, 52.7 percent of the offenders released from prison were re-arrested within three years of their relese. However, only 37.6 percent of offenders released from prison were convicted of a crime within three years of being released. Furthermore, only 20.6 percent of those released were reincarcerated in state prisons. That is the second lowest reincarceration recidivism rate in the country. That a lot fewer offenders were reincarcerated in state prisons than were convicted is an indication that many of those convictions were for minor, nonviolent offenses, including probation offenses. https://www.vadoc.virginia.gov/media/1817/vadoc-state-recidivism-report-2023-01.pdf

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          So, one in five prisoners who are released are arrested and convicted for committing a serious crime within 3 years of their release?

  6. ken Avatar
    ken

    Hmmmmm…. more criminals on the street AND more crime…. even a gender studies major should be able to understand the relationship

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      Any person with even a rudimentary education (regardless of major) would understand that correlation does not equal causation.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        some folks………….

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          The report actually cites factors that may impact the crime rate in Virginia right here:

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd2ab4ec6b5ea0a3dcce55749026b573aeedd804bceda28a525af08d2f722481.jpg

          Notice what is not included in that list… prison population. Number 6 is interesting though… especially with this data that shows that crime increases in Virginia during the summer months…

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8151679469e30278ce25e1d9cb25196b1af33075fc3fec19e824c1993ef87a3e.jpg

          I am sure JAB will do a piece on that trend any moment now…

          1. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            Notice what is not included in that list…

            As a matter of fact, I did notice something that is not on that list…

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Very good… you get a 👍

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That is interesting. Me personally, I don’t even like to go outside in Virginia’s wonderful heat and humidity.

            If that makes me less likely to become a crime victim, hey, so much the better.

      2. kls Avatar
        kls

        The sun rises, light replaces dark.. everyone knows it’s because of the clock.

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Exactly…

  7. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Now, where did I leave my illegal immigrates?

  8. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    So, beginning of the week, I logged on to VaTax and made my first 2024 Estimated Tax payment. I expected to get an alert from my bank that the money left. Crickets.

    Figuring I must have made a mistake, I logged on at VaTax to see what happened. They have that they’ve got the money.

    Logged on at the bank. Still no transfer.

    Wonder whose money the State took?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      you expected timely action? 😉

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Well, if they haven’t withdrawn the money by next week, I’m gonna hafta call ‘em. They might have taken the money from Haner’s account,… not that he’d notice.

    2. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Have you checked your offshore accounts?

    3. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Have you checked your offshore accounts?

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Shhhhh. Dangit man.

  9. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Oh yeah, don’t forget criminals who are out on bail. A lot of them commit multiple crimes while awaiting trial for serious crimes. But then, y’all know that already. Your Presidential candidate is out on bail.

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Do they use ankle monitors in Virginia? I know they’re kinda high-tech…..

  10. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Fewer children enrolled in government K-12 schools. But we need to raise taxes to pay teachers more. Fewer inmates incarcerated. But we need to add a services tax to generate more money for The Imperial Clown Show in Richmond™ to toss around. We put more and more DMV functions online but spending by the DMV GOES UP 1% per year from 2005 to 2014 after adjusting for inflation.

    https://jlarc.virginia.gov/pdfs/reports/Rpt474.pdf

    In 2017, the Ford Motor Company generated $156.8B in revenue and had 202,000 employees. Imn 2023, the Ford Motor Company generated $176.2B in revenue with 177,000 employees.

    When do the efficiencies created by our state government start showing up in lower taxes?

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      And what is it that Democrats don’t or can’t understand about inflation?

      A 32 hour work week with no reduction in pay for those who were working 40 hours per week?

      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/ai-and-automation-justify-shorter-work-week-democrats-argue.html

      The US economy is far from out of the woods on inflation, stagflation, and recession risks.

      It’s good to hear soon-to-be 78 year old Janet Yellen admit that using the word “transitory” regarding inflation was a mistake.

      Maybe she should set up a meeting with 82 year old Bernie Sanders and explain inflation to him.

      1. Chip Gibson Avatar
        Chip Gibson

        160 years of pure ignorance and stupidity!

      2. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        Listening to Yellen try to explain anything to anyone is a hoot. She is a twit. A wag the other day suggested that she also express regret for cutting her own hair.

        Inflation will be with us for a quite awhile. With a $1.7T deficit in Biden’s proposed budget fiscal stimulus will continue to be huge. The decline in money in circulation also is forcing the Fed to move from contracting the money supply to expanding it. That’s moving from quantitative tightening where we currently are back to quantitative easing. The Fed will be hard pressed to lower interest rates in the face of those inflationary pressures.

        That will be decidedly uncomfortable for Biden’s re election campaign. Expect more noise and blather on inflation as well as Gaza, Ukraine, the border and crime. No real changes, it will all be just noise.

  11. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Now they’re taking down the statue of Cecil Rhodes!

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Will Rhodes scholarships henceforth be known as Mugabe scholarships?

      …

  12. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Ugly Americans…
    “An armed Metropolitan Police officer has been forced to step in and shut down a group of tourists who had been heckling a British soldier standing guard in London. A video posted on social media site TikTok appears to show a group of American tourists filming the soldier and shouting out names, hoping to get a reaction from the Household Cavalry trooper who was standing guard. Throughout the encounter, the cavalryman was calm and professional, remaining at ease with his sword in hand and giving no reaction to their jeers.”

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Must be tourists from Northern Virginia.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Henrico.

        1. Chip Gibson Avatar
          Chip Gibson

          Having spent many formative years living in Henrico, I am all for kicking the asses of said American tourists. Have too admired the Household Cavalry in person and then been called an “F’ing Capitalist” while on Liberty in France by a skinny Frenchman…by projecting example of the fine Household Cavalry, I spared the Frenchman’s life. We should invite the Household Cavalry to provide counseling for all Virginia Gentlemen on how to somehow tolerate Norther Virginia liberal Marxists….and, then “repair to the pub” my boys!!

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Nixon so admired them too.

          2. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Remember when Nixon dressed up the White House guards in uniforms that looked like they were from a banana republic and everyone started laughing at him?

          3. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            Hard to forget the WH Palace Guard.

            Didn’t he also design the uniform? I remember hand drawn sketches.

          4. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            I believe so. Mom remarked at the time that “It won’t be long now, it’s the kiss of death in D.C. when they start laughing at you.” Sure enough it was not too long after that he was waving goodbye as the helicopter lifted off the White House lawn leaving the Palace Guard standing at attention.

          5. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            used to be the kiss of death. Nowadays it’s a requirement. Boebert, anyone? BTW, Ken Buck’s move was priceless.

          6. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            and don’t forget the giggling twit herself, Kamala who has brought ridicule of public officials in house. Is this a great country or what?

      2. Chip Gibson Avatar
        Chip Gibson

        Well played!

    2. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      When I visited London with two then college aged sons we saw the Household Cavalry. The boys asked what would happen if they walked up to the soldier and screamed at him. I told them that I would walk up to the soldier with them and explain that, as their father, I gave the soldier permission to kick their asses.

      The decision was quickly made to repair to a pub rather than harras the soldier.

    3. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      I think it would make for some interesting YouTube videos if those guys were allowed to kick the crap out of one heckler per week.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        He has a sword…

        There was a video of some tourist who gets in a guard’s face then touches him. Right hook on the nose.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wANH85VkLQI

  13. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    An unfortunate duplication in common naming is the Eastern Brownsnake and the Eastern Brown Snake.

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